Dalton Kincaid Rookie Stats, reprise

[Beck Water]

Chandler's post of his scouting assessment/highlight film got me looking for the "predict his stats" thread from last June, found here:

Apologies for 2 Kincaid threads on the board at once, but since I put a good bit of work into this and it references an old thread, I thought it deserved its own play.  Mods, if you disagree and merge, I won't be salty.

 

Since I'm trying to learn the stats functions in LibreOffice, I decided to tablulate.  Did the first 10 pages of a 14 page thread because I ran out of room on the paper I jotted things on.  Eliminated obvious jokesters and incomplete predictions.

 

Average prediction: 52 receptions, 551 yds, 6 TD

Standard deviation: +/- 19 receptions, 252 yds, 2 TD

Range: 9-109 receptions, 108-1376 yds, 2-13 TD (and yes, I did eliminate a couple of obvious jokesters, the outlandish ones I included seemed serious)

 

Dalton's actual stats: 73 receptions, 673 yds, 2 TD.  So "on average" he exceeded expectations except in the matter of TD. 

He played 63% of offensive snaps.

 

Special mention to @NewEra, @Kirby Jackson, and especially @KingBoots8 who nailed his catches and yards almost exactly.  I will give their judgement a little *bump* in my mind going forward:

 

On 6/12/2023 at 9:06 AM, NewEra said:

If he plays 70%+ of the snaps:

86-886-8

 

if they try and get Harty and Sherfield a decent share of reps and Kincaid plays <60%: 68- 688- 6

 

Hall of Fame 

 

 

 

On 6/12/2023 at 4:13 PM, Kirby Jackson said:

68 catches

680 yards

6 TDs

 

I did 4 catches and 40 yards a game. I also figured a TD every 3 games. Those numbers feel realistic to me.

 

On 6/30/2023 at 1:38 PM, KingBoots8 said:

71 catches on 82 Targets
686 yards, 5 TD.

 

and a special raspberry to a guy who is either Eyore as a Bills fan, or a troll, @KDIGGZ for his take.

Calibrate everything he says on this board accordingly.

 

On 6/12/2023 at 7:44 AM, KDIGGZ said:

He won't even be on the field for more than a handful of plays per game the entire first half of the season. Anyone who thinks he has more than 500 yards receiving is dreaming. My hope is that they will use him as a RedZone target and that's where his value will come from. His stats will probably be like 325 yards receiving but hopefully 5 or more TD's and hopefully some flashes so there's something to build on for next year. But don't count on it. Check Shakir's stats from last year if you want to get an idea of how they value rookie pass catchers on this team 

Edited March 21 by Beck Water

[Royale with Cheese]

Lets bring this back up.  @NewEra @FireChans

 

On 6/11/2023 at 10:22 PM, FireChans said:

31 catches, 375 yards, 1 TD. 

 

On 6/12/2023 at 9:55 AM, NewEra said:

I’ll bet the over on all 3.  My $200 to your $50

 

didn’t think so. 
 

🧌 

 

On 6/12/2023 at 10:49 AM, FireChans said:

You didn’t let me respond!

If he doesn’t hit the over on all three, I win 200? That’s easy money lol

 

On 6/12/2023 at 12:21 PM, NewEra said:

Yup-  31 catches, 375 yards, 1 TD.  13 games played minimum. I got the over on all 3.  My $200 to your $50

 

On 6/12/2023 at 12:37 PM, FireChans said:

Deal

 

[Beck Water]

17 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Lets bring this back up.  @NewEra @FireChans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

I wasn't gonna go there but since you did - @NewEra did @FireChans pay up?

[ngbills]

His numbers did benefit from Knox missing a lot of time.

[Royale with Cheese]

50 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I wasn't gonna go there but since you did - @NewEra did @FireChans pay up?

 

@FireChans?

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Royale with Cheese said:

Lets bring this back up.  @NewEra @FireChans

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

54 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

I wasn't gonna go there but since you did - @NewEra did @FireChans pay up?

 

3 minutes ago, Royale with Cheese said:

 

@FireChans?

Of course I did. Appreciate the fandom, though.

[Royale with Cheese]

6 minutes ago, FireChans said:

 

 

Of course I did. Appreciate the fandom, though.

 

Any attention is good attention.

[Beck Water]

55 minutes ago, ngbills said:

His numbers did benefit from Knox missing a lot of time.

 

Knox did miss 5 games and was arguably playing hampered in a couple where he did take snaps.

 

But, for the games Knox played, his R/G and Y/G were career lows.

 

And, in his 5 year career, Knox has never broken 50 receptions or 600 yds per season.

[Jon in Pasadena]

DK also missed the Giants game, I believe, while recovering from the concussion he got in the ***** London game.

He very likely would have gone over 700yds receiving for the season if he played that game.

[Sweats]

You want to know what i think?!?.........go check out the other Kincaid thread.

[Beck Water]

6 minutes ago, Jon in Pasadena said:

DK also missed the Giants game, I believe, while recovering from the concussion he got in the ***** London game.

He very likely would have gone over 700yds receiving for the season if he played that game.

 

You are correct!  Damn, I hated that London game.  They had us play on crappy turf over cement, with no fill, and we had injuries in droves.

 

1 minute ago, Sweats said:

You want to know what i think?!?.

 

Not really.  Meaning no offense, but is there a reason I should want to know?

Edited March 21 by Beck Water

[NewEra]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

I wasn't gonna go there but since you did - @NewEra did @FireChans pay up?

He did.  Prompt and professional.  
 

But let’s talk about his prediction…. 🤣 

31-375-1-  ffs.  If that’s not a troll take, I don’t know what is.  

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, ngbills said:

His numbers did benefit from Knox missing a lot of time.

Knox will be missing alot more time June 1st, 2025. Other than just 2 tds, I was happy with his numbers and expect them to go up this season.

[KingBoots8]

Not gonna lie, I forgot what I predicted but I was pretty shocked he only had 2 TD’s. I definitely felt like it was more for some reason. 
 

Interested to see who we draft this year. I like watching the film after the draft and seeing where the pieces fit together. Not sure I want to make another prediction just yet for Kincaid, but I would expect the numbers to be similar. Knox has seniority and will get his snaps in for sure.

 

Dorsey to Brady changed his usage a little. Could have been adjusting to the coaching changes, but after a decent game vs Denver his yardage and targets took a steady hit for about a month. He had 1 game with 0 receptions and another right after with 1 reception for 7 yards. He also scored both regular season touchdowns before Brady was the OC (but did score one against the Steelers in the playoffs). He ended the year strong with 2 great games, and performed well in 2 playoff games. He also missed 1 game during the first half of the season where my numbers may have been a little further off had he played. 

A good start to what I believe is a great player. Excited for him to take another step this season.

Edited March 21 by KingBoots8

[Beck Water]

1 minute ago, NewEra said:

He did.  Prompt and professional.  
 

But let’s talk about his prediction…. 🤣 

31-375-1-  ffs.  If that’s not a troll take, I don’t know what is.  

 

Good to know!

 

Well.... there was a "take" of 9-108-9 (that was serious - another joked 'in the playoffs").  There were a couple of takes of about or less than 300 yds - 312, 297, 230 along with 26, 32, and 28 receptions.

And another similar take of 35-375-2.  

 

Some of them were troll takes, but a couple were, I think, just based on supposedly McDermott "holds back" rookies and stubbornly refuses to play them even when they're fantasmagorical.

 

Which I don't think is true - with a good team, rookies play when they play well enough to displace the veteran ahead of them, not just for the sake of putting them out there and getting them snaps.

 

Then of course there were some serious, but outlandish takes on the high side in addition to a couple of jokesters.

 

And, I learned what the stats functions are called and how to sort data in Libreoffice, so I got what I came for.

[Shaw66]

I have a lot of confidence in Beane and McDermott in player selection.   They have a very good understanding of the kind of players they need at each position, and they do a good job at figuring out which available players fit.  (That's what's so shocking about Elam.)

 

I think they knew exactly what they were getting in Kincaid and how they were going to use him.  I think people who thought he would be below 500 yards misperceived how good McDermott and Beane are at this.  Receivers don't have huge trouble transitioning from college to the pros, so it was more or less a no-brainer that Kincaid would play a lot and catch a lot of balls.  That's what they got him for, and they knew he could do it. 

 

As I said in the other thread, I think he needs to bulk up a bit.   Mostly what I think he needs to improve is his route running, particularly as plays break down.  I mean, he runs all those short routes pretty nicely, but he still has work to do connecting with Allen.  The guys who play close to the QB - the tight ends and slot guys - can become really valuable when they develop a high level of communication with the QB, like we see with Kelce and Mahomes, and like we saw with Allen and Beasley.  I think Kincaid has more to learn and will benefit from another year with Allen.  I also think he'll benefit if Brady is as creative as we hope. 

[FireChans]

25 minutes ago, NewEra said:

He did.  Prompt and professional.  
 

But let’s talk about his prediction…. 🤣 

31-375-1-  ffs.  If that’s not a troll take, I don’t know what is.  

You were 1 TD away from losing and gave me 4 to 1 odds. I’d take it again.

 

If Knox didn’t get hurt, and Dorsey doesn’t get fired, who knows?

Edited March 21 by FireChans

[Low Positive]

Just now, Shaw66 said:

I have a lot of confidence in Beane and McDermott in player selection.   They have a very good understanding of the kind of players they need at each position, and they do a good job at figuring out which available players fit.  (That's what's so shocking about Elam.)

 

I think they knew exactly what they were getting in Kincaid and how they were going to use him.  I think people who thought he would be below 500 yards misperceived how good McDermott and Beane are at this.  Receivers don't have huge trouble transitioning from college to the pros, so it was more or less a no-brainer that Kincaid would play a lot and catch a lot of balls.  That's what they got him for, and they knew he could do it. 

 

As I said in the other thread, I think he needs to bulk up a bit.   Mostly what I think he needs to improve is his route running, particularly as plays break down.  I mean, he runs all those short routes pretty nicely, but he still has work to do connecting with Allen.  The guys who play close to the QB - the tight ends and slot guys - can become really valuable when they develop a high level of communication with the QB, like we see with Kelce and Mahomes, and like we saw with Allen and Beasley.  I think Kincaid has more to learn and will benefit from another year with Allen.  I also think he'll benefit if Brady is as creative as we hope. 

There is an incorrect narrative on this board that “McDermott doesn’t play rookies,” all stemming from the Elam situation, that drives a lot of those takes.

[Sweats]

34 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

You are correct!  Damn, I hated that London game.  They had us play on crappy turf over cement, with no fill, and we had injuries in droves.

 

 

Not really.  Meaning no offense, but is there a reason I should want to know?

 

 

 

Here's what i think....

 

We've basically only used him for dump-offs or as an outlet, so it's hard to see the full extent of what he can do on the field, however, the FO has a gem on their hands and they should figure out how to implement him more into our O.

Also, i doubt Kincaid will ever be an offensive focal point, such as a Gronk, a Kelce, a Kittle, etc..... but with more development, he should come into his own and be a plyer that teams will definitely have to game plan for every week.

 

And now you know.

[Shaw66]

25 minutes ago, Low Positive said:

There is an incorrect narrative on this board that “McDermott doesn’t play rookies,” all stemming from the Elam situation, that drives a lot of those takes.

I used to believe that take, too.   I think it was true, but I think as the team has grown, things have changed.   One thing McDermott and Beane said when they got here, something that I didn't understand, and I still don't understand, is that as players learn the system and come back for year two, they play at higher level and learn more.  Collectively, the team's intelligence and understanding of the system grows from year to year.   There is a team learning curve, and somehow the veterans pull the newcomers up the curve, so that things it took Poyer and Hyde years to learn, for example, are learned by Hamlin and the like in a year or two.  I don't understand how that works, but it apparently does.  The result is that when the team was playing at a lower level, it was harder for rookies to get into the lineup, because the veterans were still working their own way up the learning curve.   Now that the team has matured, it gets easier. to pull guys along.  So, Kincaid and Torrence both walked into camp and pretty quickly were able to play with the vets.  

 

It's what we saw with the Patriots.   Year after year, some guy would get injured for the Patriots and some rookie you've never heard of would move into the lineup and play just fine.  Why?   Because Belichick's system somehow worked to have the vets pull the rookies up to their level.  

 

It's a beautiful thing.