Does Josh Allen still work as hard in the offseason?

[K D]

Just now, BillMafia716ix said:

I’ll admit I am a little skeptical of why we never hear about Josh and the WR’s getting together and working together in the offseason. Maybe that’s why there was such a disconnect between Diggs/Allen and caused friction. Maybe he felt Josh didn’t take things as serious as him. 

That's exactly how he felt. Diggs would give his life to win a Superbowl. Josh Allen is just happy to be in the conversation 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

No , please read my original message where I said it's not all stats. But stats do have to be involved to a certain degree

 

But 50 plus TdS to 27 last year and you say he's improved?

 

Thats almost a 50 percent drop off. Not too mention less yards and more turnovers.

 

I think you have to bring something more to the table opposed to just "he plays better in the system" which is a pretty subjective argument

 

 

 

 

The evidence is on the field. 
 

I have no way of demonstrating that besides telling you to watch Mahomes close his eyes and chuck it to Tyreek 10 yards behind the defenders 5 years ago vs watch Mahomes run the offense today. 

 

Stats have to be invoked to a certain degree? How much is the degree? If Josh’s production drops 25%, is that enough to say he’s a worse QB? 
 

Here’s some stats for you, if you’re so inclined.

 

Mahomes bad throw % in 2023 was the best of his career. His on target throw % was the highest of his career. He had the highest rate of drops by his receiving group of his career.

 

Josh’s on target throw % in 2023 was worse than 2020. His bad throw % was the best of his career.

 

Mahomes bad throw % and on target % were both better than Josh’s in 2023 and 2020.

[BillsFan130]

20 minutes ago, FireChans said:

The evidence is on the field. 
 

I have no way of demonstrating that besides telling you to watch Mahomes close his eyes and chuck it to Tyreek 10 yards behind the defenders 5 years ago vs watch Mahomes run the offense today. 

 

Stats have to be invoked to a certain degree? How much is the degree? If Josh’s production drops 25%, is that enough to say he’s a worse QB? 
 

Here’s some stats for you, if you’re so inclined.

 

Mahomes bad throw % in 2023 was the best of his career. His on target throw % was the highest of his career. He had the highest rate of drops by his receiving group of his career.

 

Josh’s on target throw % in 2023 was worse than 2020. His bad throw % was the best of his career.

 

Mahomes bad throw % and on target % were both better than Josh’s in 2023 and 2020.

If that's PFF I'm sorry I can't put much stock into those. If you're a PFF guy, they have Josh as the number 1 QB. (if those stats are PfF)

Here are actual stats that aren't over analyzed by nerds 👇

 

Mahomes 2018

 

52 TDS, 12 picks, 5300 total yards, 114 rating 

 

2023- 4572, 27 TDS, 14 picks, 92 rating 

 

Josh 2020- 5000 yards, 45 TDs, 10 INTs, 107 rating

 

2023- 44 TDS, 4900 yards, 44 TDS, 18 INTs, 92 rating 

 

again I get it, it's not all stats. But it's like come on man... 

 

Mahomes stats are wayyy worse where Josh's took a slight dip.

 

Stats don't tell the whole story, but they need to be factored in. Especially when there are massive dips in each category.

 

PFF also had a higher overall grade on Mahomes in 2018 compared to 2023, so if you want to go the "advanced stats " route, your argument wouldn't hold up there

Edited April 7 by BillsFan130

[90sBills]

1 hour ago, BillsFan130 said:

I definitely agree with most of that, but I'm not sure how you can say he's improved overall.

 

I am not saying he got worse as he set the bar ridiculously high.

 

But improved from His MVP seasons? No way IMO.

 

He had 27 TDs last season. Teams play Josh the same they play Mahomes for the most part and Josh had 44 

Mahomes is much better at taking what defenses give him. Recognizing how defenses are playing him and getting the ball to the right receiver against those defenses. He’s also much better at knowing game situations and what it takes to win as opposed to stats accumulation. That’s a large reason why KC is winning SB’s. It’s a team game but the QB holds the biggest key. Your team is not winning multiple SB’s if your QB is not operating at this mental level of the game. 

[BillsFan130]

2 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Mahomes is much better at taking what defenses give him. Recognizing how defenses are playing him and getting the ball to the right receiver against those defenses. He’s also much better at knowing game situations and what it takes to win as opposed to stats accumulation. That’s a large reason why KC is winning SB’s. It’s a team game but the QB holds the biggest key. Your team is not winning multiple SB’s if your QB is not operating at this mental level of the game. 

I'm not denying Mahomes isn't great, that's not what I'm saying.

 

But I am saying Mahomes isn't "better" now than a few years ago when he was winning MVPs and even SBs

[90sBills]

5 hours ago, UKBillFan said:

 

You're just assuming, as is everyone in the thread, that Josh can do better. That he isn't at his peak. If he is, he's still more than good enough to win the Super Bowl. The question is are the players and coaching around him.

Physically he’s as talented as anyone. Where he’s behind is the mental part of being a qb. Processing speed. Getting the ball to the right place depending on game situations.

 

You don’t think he can improve in this area of his game? Right now him and the team have hit a ceiling. The roster has been turned over to get younger and hopefully break that ceiling. Whether they can do that will depend in large part by Allen. Hopefully he’s up to the challenge. 

[90sBills]

1 minute ago, BillsFan130 said:

I'm not denying Mahomes isn't great, that's not what I'm saying.

 

But I am saying Mahomes isn't "better" now than a few years ago when he was winning MVPs and even SBs

That’s what I meant with my post. Mahomes’ improvements has been in those mental areas of being a qb. Like that boneheaded play he made in the ‘21 AFCCG before the half. That was him not recognizing game situations. He learned from that.

 

His stats that first year was unbelievable. But defenses have adjusted to his game and took those away. Not to mention he lost a lot of the receivers on the end of those plays. He struggled briefly against the adjustments and now have figured how to beat those defenses.

[BillsFan130]

4 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

That’s what I meant with my post. Mahomes’ improvements has been in those mental areas of being a qb. Like that boneheaded play he made in the ‘21 AFCCG before the half. That was him not recognizing game situations. He learned from that.

 

His stats that first year was unbelievable. But defenses have adjusted to his game and took those away. Not to mention he lost a lot of the receivers on the end of those plays. He struggled briefly against the adjustments and now have figured how to beat those defenses.

He had more turnovers last year compared to the previous great ones.

So I am not sure that would fit the "he's taking what the defence is giving him" narrative.

[FireChans]

33 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

If that's PFF I'm sorry I can't put much stock into those. If you're a PFF guy, they have Josh as the number 1 QB. (if those stats are PfF)

Here are actual stats that aren't over analyzed by nerds 👇

 

Mahomes 2018

 

52 TDS, 12 picks, 5300 total yards, 114 rating 

 

2023- 4572, 27 TDS, 14 picks, 92 rating 

 

Josh 2020- 5000 yards, 45 TDs, 10 INTs, 107 rating

 

2023- 44 TDS, 4900 yards, 44 TDS, 18 INTs, 92 rating 

 

again I get it, it's not all stats. But it's like come on man... 

 

Mahomes stats are wayyy worse where Josh's took a slight dip.

 

Stats don't tell the whole story, but they need to be factored in. Especially when there are massive dips in each category.

 

PFF also had a higher overall grade on Mahomes in 2018 compared to 2023, so if you want to go the "advanced stats " route, your argument wouldn't hold up there

It's not PFF. It's PFR.

 

Like I said, if you are going to say Mahomes is worse because his numbers are worse, was Tom Brady regressing in 2019 and then suddenly got way better in 2020?

 

It's just not a valid argument to me.

 

If Josh's numbers take a sizable hit this season because he's throwing to plumbers and mailmen, I will not necessarily say he's regressing. It sounds like you will though.

[90sBills]

1 minute ago, BillsFan130 said:

He had more turnovers last year compared to the previous great ones.

So I am not sure that would fit the "he's taking what the defence is giving him" narrative.

If you watch their games you’d see that Kadarius Toney alone was responsible for a few of those. Just strictly looking at stats to determine if a qb has improved is foolhardy. Especially a qb that has taken his team to back-to-back Superbowls. 

[BillsFan130]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

It's not PFF. It's PFR.

 

Like I said, if you are going to say Mahomes is worse because his numbers are worse, was Tom Brady regressing in 2019 and then suddenly got way better in 2020?

 

It's just not a valid argument to me.

 

If Josh's numbers take a sizable hit this season because he's throwing to plumbers and mailmen, I will not necessarily say he's regressing. It sounds like you will though.

But there's just nothing to support your argument that Mahomes is getting better.

 

Actual stats. Advanced stats. Nothing.

 

 

3 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

If you watch their games you’d see that Kadarius Toney alone was responsible for a few of those. Just strictly looking at stats to determine if a qb has improved is foolhardy. Especially a qb that has taken his team to back-to-back Superbowls. 

All great QBs have great stats buddy lol. It would be foolish not to factor in stats.

 

Mahomes actual stats are way worse. And his advanced stats are worse since 2018.

 

So I really don't know what you wanna argue- If you want straw at things like "Toney caused an INT or two " compared to all data im saying here, that's a poor hill to die on and you have your mind made up so not much saying more

Edited April 7 by BillsFan130

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, KDIGGZ said:

That's exactly how he felt. Diggs would give his life to win a Superbowl. Josh Allen is just happy to be in the conversation 

 

He would give his life but he wouldn't attend OTAs? Trust me, the public image of Diggs as a football obsessed workout warrior is a mirage. He is the type that loves holding others to impossibly high standards but makes excuses for himself.

[90sBills]

5 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

But there's just nothing to support your argument that Mahomes is getting better.

 

Actual stats. Advanced stats. Nothing.

 

 

All great QBs have great stats buddy lol. It would be foolish not to factor in stats.

 

Mahomes actual stats are way worse. And his advanced stats are worse since 2018.

 

So I really don't know what you wanna argue- If you want straw at things like "Toney caused an INT or two " compared to all data im saying here, that's a poor hill to die on and you have your mind made up so not much saying more

Wait. You’re saying his stats are bad now? You’re saying the best qb in the league has regressed since his debut when during that time has led his team to 4 Superbowls and winning 3 of them? Oh man I wish Allen could regress in such a fashion for the Bills. Let’s agree to disagree and move on because it’s getting to absurd territory. 

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, 90sBills said:

Wait. You’re saying his stats are bad now? You’re saying the best qb in the league has regressed since his debut when during that time has led his team to 4 Superbowls and winning 3 of them? Oh man I wish Allen could regress in such a fashion for the Bills. Let’s agree to disagree and move on because it’s getting to absurd territory. 

Ahh using the "Mahomes is getting better cause his team is winning SBs argument".

 

It was only a matter of time before someone used that lazy argument.

 

I didn't know Mahomes and Josh played individual sports. I thought football was a 53 man team game, but what do I know.

[FireChans]

17 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

But there's just nothing to support your argument that Mahomes is getting better.

 

Actual stats. Advanced stats. Nothing.

I just posted advanced stats that showed he was the most accurate of his career in 2023. You just don’t like them lol

[90sBills]

Just now, BillsFan130 said:

Ahh using the "Mahomes is getting better cause his team is winning SBs argument".

 

It was only a matter of time before someone used that lazy argument.

 

I didn't know Mahomes and Josh played individual sports. I thought football was a 53 man team game, but what do I know.

They don’t play individual sports but they are responsible for a large portion of their teams’ success. Just as all elite QBs. That’s why they’re paid as such. I brought this up in an earlier post but in your haste to rebut you missed it.

 

Everyone has an opinion so you’re entitled to yours.

[HappyDays]

7 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

I didn't know Mahomes and Josh played individual sports. I thought football was a 53 man team game, but what do I know.

 

You'll find in this discussion that certain people have to pretend elite players and elite coaches don't matter. To me it's simple - If Allen and Mahomes play equally in a matchup, the Bills will lose every single time. Because in that scenario the people around Mahomes are far and away better than the people around Allen and that will be the difference. For us to get past Mahomes we either need to get a couple of elite players or we need a new coaching staff, or we have to just hope Mahomes happens to play below his standard. Under our current circumstances there's no realistic scenario where Mahomes plays well and we beat the Chiefs, and nothing Allen can do to force that to happen. He played the best game of his career against them in 2021 and it still wasn't enough. If people can't see that, it's on them.

 

Edited April 8 by HappyDays

[Lieutenant Aldo Raine]

1 hour ago, KDIGGZ said:

That's exactly how he felt. Diggs would give his life to win a Superbowl. Josh Allen is just happy to be in the conversation 

If Diggs wanted it so bad, he wouldn’t have dropped that dime or disappeared the back half of the season !  Maybe a few more workout videos would have helped.  

[BillsFan130]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

I just posted advanced stats that showed he was the most accurate of his career in 2023. You just don’t like them lol

You're cherry picking a stat or two instead of factoring in the whole picture . I posted a stat that he was graded higher in 2018 compared to 2023. 

1 minute ago, HappyDays said:

 

You'll find in this discussion that certain people have to pretend elite players and elite coaches don't matter. To me it's simple - If Allen and Mahomes play equally in a matchup, the Bills will lose every single time. Because in that scenario the people around Mahomes are far and away better than the people around Allen and that will be the difference. For us to get past Mahomes we either need to get a couple of elite players or we need a new coaching staff, or we have to just hope Mahomes happens to play below his standard. Under our current circumstances there's no realistic scenario where Mahomes plays well and we beat the Chiefs.

100 percent. I can't stand the "Mahomes is the best cause he wins SB argument". It's so lazy

 

If people say Mahomes is better than Josh, that's fair of course. But to use the SB argument is extremely lazy 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, BillsFan130 said:

You're cherry picking a stat or two instead of factoring in the whole picture . I posted a stat that he was graded higher in 2018 compared to 2023. 

Your whole picture is counting stats. I don’t think those tell the whole story.

 

I will say it for a third time. If you believe that Tom Brady got almost twice as good at age 43 because his counting numbers were almost twice as good as the season prior, that’s your prerogative. I just think you’re completely wrong.