Drafting 10 or 11 Rookies: Is there an argument to do that this year?

[Mat68]

The argument is by hitting on later round guys their cap number is less then the vet minimum and controlled for a few years. Yes you can fill holes with vet minimum FA but they are 1 year deals.  They contribute or over perform they either walk in FA or get a significant bump in pay.  Limiting the veteran presence on the bottom of the roster will make it more enticing for priority UDFAs.  They can choose where to sign.  Buffalo for the last few years has not seen much action in this category because the path to the roster was crowded by veterans.  

[Billl]

2 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

No, only because I’d like to package a few picks to get into round 3 again.

 

Future WR, FS, NT, CB4, RB3, OG4

 

QB, TE, OT, C, SS, SLCB, LB, and K/P we are good. 

They’ll still at some 1.7m dollar FAs also. 
 

 

What would you package, though?  All of your day three picks still probably don't get you a third rounder.

[RobbRiddick]

5 hours ago, Kwai San said:

 

I would like to agree with this but my gawd what a mess they made of the Elam pick!!  I understand that it wasn't a late rounder but being that early it should have been easier to shine that Diamond up.  Not harder!!!

 

Well yeah Elam has been a huge bust so far, but I'm hoping the stuff about his injury wasn't exaggerated and when he's fully healthy he can at least be a good starter. I won't hold my breath but you never know

[Charles Romes]

Spend the 2 to get Thomas or Mitchell 

[GASabresIUFan]

The Bills have 40 of the 50 roster spots on offense and defense already spoken for.  Of these 40, Shorter, Doyle, Hamlin, seem the most vulnerable to losing their jobs.

 

It would seem that this would be a great year to stock up on cheap talent through the draft especially given the depth in this draft at safety and receiver.  
 

We have needs for a speed WR, a high-end safety, a depth safety, more help at DT, a RB, a CB, maybe a P, and even a couple of O linemen.  
 

Sadly, I don’t see Beane making 11 picks.  I see him using his picks to get back into the 3rd round.  I agree with other posters that a trade down from 28 to the early second should garner a 3rd pick.  However, I want to stay ahead of KC in the first.  I see them taking a WR to pair with Rice and I don’t want them to choose a receiver before we do.  If Mitchell and/or Thomas are around late in the 1st, I think Beane has to take one.  I really want Mitchell.  Rare size and speed combo. Overall I see Beane making 7-8 picks, with possibly all 7-8 making the team.

 

Last year, the Bills made 6 picks.  The top 3 made the team (including 2 starters), Shorter spent the year on IR and the 2 7th rd picks ended up on the PS before being claimed by other teams.

[OldTimer1960]

On 3/17/2024 at 3:25 PM, ColoradoBills said:

 

Exactly what I was thinking.  Many have been saying that.  The thing is using the new Trade Value Chart you have to bundle A LOT

of those Day 3 picks to get from 128 (Bills top 4th round pick) into the mid 90's.  I figure it takes that 4th and 2 5th to make that move.

You also have to find a partner to do it.

 

So, once again, my new counterargument is on the odds that the picks given up COULD be worth more drafting guys than using them

on the chance of that one 3rd rounder hitting.

 

I'm in no way saying to do what I said, just getting feedback.  Thanks for yours!

This is the real issue.  I’ve heard talk radio playing up “they have 11 picks” stuff, but the total “draft capital” they have isn’t that high.  Those late 4ths, and 5ths are not going to move them up very far unless you bundle 3 for 1.  There are 66 picks between the Bills’ 2nd round pick at 60 and their next pick late in round 4.  

[Kirby Jackson]

I don’t think that there is an argument to drafting 10-11 guys (despite the need to make the roster younger). I could see 7 or 8 making sense. Look at the depth chart and tell me where you have room for 11? I get the theory that it’s “more bites at the apple” but there aren’t enough spots. 
 

Your focus needs to be on your number 2 WR, followed by the DL. You need to get, 3 bodies there. You’re likely going to sign your other starting S, but you should draft a guy as well. You could also use a late round RB that can run between the tackles. That leaves 5-6 roster spots that you need from the draft. If you want to draft a couple more guys to compete with others on the back of the roster, so be it. That’ll be where BPA comes in. Otherwise, you use those last 3(ish) picks to move around the board and target guys before you have a tier break. At this point, I’d be happy with something like:

 

- AD Mitchell

- Kris Jenkins

- Gabe Hall

- Dadrion Taylor-Demerson

- Xavier Thomas

- Audric Estime

- BPA

- BPA

[Shortchaz]

If they get to a point where they’re drafting guys with low probability of making the team I’d like to see them trade those picks for future picks. 

[Cash]

Not in order of need or preference:
 

1. RB

2. Starting level WR

3. Backup level WR

4. TE

5. Swing OT

6. Back IOL

7. DE

8. Another DE

9. DT

10. Another DT

11. CB

12. Starting level S

13. Backup level S

 

 Obviously that can change as veterans are signed, but that’s 13 roster spots I’d be very comfortable with draft picks in. 
 

This is the year we’re taking our medicine. It’s no longer the case that our roster is super deep with well-paid vets. Those late-round picks that we’ve been cutting who are still in the league? There’s now room for them on the active roster. Let’s embrace that. 

[ColoradoBills]

3 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I don’t think that there is an argument to drafting 10-11 guys (despite the need to make the roster younger). I could see 7 or 8 making sense. Look at the depth chart and tell me where you have room for 11? I get the theory that it’s “more bites at the apple” but there aren’t enough spots. 
 

Your focus needs to be on your number 2 WR, followed by the DL. You need to get, 3 bodies there. You’re likely going to sign your other starting S, but you should draft a guy as well. You could also use a late round RB that can run between the tackles. That leaves 5-6 roster spots that you need from the draft. If you want to draft a couple more guys to compete with others on the back of the roster, so be it. That’ll be where BPA comes in. Otherwise, you use those last 3(ish) picks to move around the board and target guys before you have a tier break. At this point, I’d be happy with something like:

 

- AD Mitchell

- Kris Jenkins

- Gabe Hall

- Dadrion Taylor-Demerson

- Xavier Thomas

- Audric Estime

- BPA

- BPA

 

I agree that 10 or 11 rookies have a low probability of ALL making the team.  But if you are taking a chance with drafting 7 guys from the

5th - 7th rounds you have to expect some not to make the 53.  It's an odds thing.  There is a chance on the unlikely situation that ALL the

rookies look good of stashing a couple on the PS, especially the 6th and 7th rounders.

 

If they get lucky and hit on 4-5 guys worth keeping my question would be, is it better to do that (this year) than using those picks to

move a few spots up knowing that even those guys picked in Day 3 may not pan out too.

 

Beane has never done this before, and I won't be upset if he does bundle picks, but he has not been in this cap crunch as bad as this year and next.

[Kirby Jackson]

11 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I agree that 10 or 11 rookies have a low probability of ALL making the team.  But if you are taking a chance with drafting 7 guys from the

5th - 7th rounds you have to expect some not to make the 53.  It's an odds thing.  There is a chance on the unlikely situation that ALL the

rookies look good of stashing a couple on the PS, especially the 6th and 7th rounders.

 

If they get lucky and hit on 4-5 guys worth keeping my question would be, is it better to do that (this year) than using those picks to

move a few spots up knowing that even those guys picked in Day 3 may not pan out too.

 

Beane has never done this before, and I won't be upset if he does bundle picks, but he has not been in this cap crunch as bad as this year and next.

I’ll ask it differently, “how many available roster spots do you see?” For me, it isn’t about 2 bites at the apple in the 6th. I’m using that ammo, to move up in the 6th and draft a guy that I have a 4th round grade on (for example). I am trusting my scouting. Adding 7 or 8 guys in the draft would still be A TON. There just aren’t the roster spots to support it.

[ColoradoBills]

7 minutes ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ll ask it differently, “how many available roster spots do you see?” For me, it isn’t about 2 bites at the apple in the 6th. I’m using that ammo, to move up in the 6th and draft a guy that I have a 4th round grade on (for example). I am trusting my scouting. Adding 7 or 8 guys in the draft would still be A TON. There just aren’t the roster spots to support it.

 

I see it like this so far.  I will say the longer Beane goes without signing more UFAs (especially those around $2M one-year contracts) the

more draft picks he might keep.  I totally can agree with your points and have supported that in the past.  Just see this year as maybe

an exception.  

 

1- WR (Assuming Shorter or one of the other PS guys make the team)

1- RB

2- OL (IOL and Swing)- I can't count Tommy Doyle as a lock)

4- DL (I have only 5 locks Beane usually keeps 9-10)

4- DB (I only have 6 locks Beane usually keeps 10) I don't count Hamlin as a lock.

1- P (Martin and Haack could be upgraded and cheaper).

 

So that's 13 slots.  I see a WR along with a DL/S with the 1st 2 picks.

I do believe Beane is looking to add a vet Safety with the money he has left.

That leaves 10 slots.  

 

Even if Beane drafted 10 guys and 8 (at best) made the team that still leaves some depth spots needing to be filled.

Beane could use the cap from Tre White to fill out the roster with some vets like he did with Floyd last year.

 

 

 

 

[Rockinon]

There is always an argument for drafting starters in order to get the cap under control. Realistically though, in any draft class, how will 10 guys be able to do that? I realize that not all will replace starters, but that is still the goal. So is improving the team. Don't see how both can be achieved, even if some of them will only be eventual starters. If 3 or 4 of them can actually start, that's some pretty good scouting and a good draft. You can load up on rookies in hopes of some of them panning out, but that is done every year, not just this year.

[Don Otreply]

After a WR in the first and O-line in the second, use the rest to fill out the defense, 😂

[No_Matter_What]

5 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I’ll ask it differently, “how many available roster spots do you see?” For me, it isn’t about 2 bites at the apple in the 6th. I’m using that ammo, to move up in the 6th and draft a guy that I have a 4th round grade on (for example). I am trusting my scouting. Adding 7 or 8 guys in the draft would still be A TON. There just aren’t the roster spots to support it.

Kirby, could you please elaborate on this? Because right now, I see more than enough space for 10 rookies.

 

By my count there are 42 NFL players on our roster, who were there last year or who we signed this year and we can reasonably predict they end up on 53. This group includes Justin Shorter, Mack Hollins, Kingsley Jonathan, Nicholas Morrow and Damar Hamlin, and I really don't think these are locks to make the roster (and I think we could even include in this group guys like Quintin Morris and maybe Ty Johnson depending on his contract).

 

So right now, there are at least 11 spots totally open right now, possibly up to 16-17.

 

Then there is group of players like Eli Ankou, Tommy Doyle, K.J. Hamler or Andy Isabella who are fringe NFL players, but I really don't think these guys prevent us from keeping any promising 6th round draft pick.

 

I think this is actually a great year to draft 10 rookies and hope that we hit on 8+ enough that they are worth a roster spot. There is enough room. I really hope that Beane resists temptation to fill roster spots with washed vets before the draft and give them some guaranteed money, so they will be harder to cut and will block roster spots for some young talent. Add a starting safety and then wait for the draft (or don't give any guaranteed money at least).

[noacls]

DT is by far the biggest need on this team. They have 3 on the roster now: Ed, Jones, Ankou. If Ankou has to play meaningful snaps in season they are done. That means they need atleast 2 DT. They need another Edge too.

     Now look at Josh's weapons. Most likely targets breakdown:1. Diggs, 2. Kincaid 3. Samuel, 4. Shakir, 5. Cook, 6. Knox. Rookie WR comes in the ceiling is number 4 at best in target share.

     Do I want a receiver? Yes, if that's your BPA, you take him. However the front four has serious needs. If Murphy, Darius Robinson, or Newton is there you take them. 

[klos63]

We probably won't have 11 roster spots that will be realistically available,  so I would guess Beane uses a couple picks to move up a few spots in a mid round. 

[Kirby Jackson]

27 minutes ago, No_Matter_What said:

Kirby, could you please elaborate on this? Because right now, I see more than enough space for 10 rookies.

 

By my count there are 42 NFL players on our roster, who were there last year or who we signed this year and we can reasonably predict they end up on 53. This group includes Justin Shorter, Mack Hollins, Kingsley Jonathan, Nicholas Morrow and Damar Hamlin, and I really don't think these are locks to make the roster (and I think we could even include in this group guys like Quintin Morris and maybe Ty Johnson depending on his contract).

 

So right now, there are at least 11 spots totally open right now, possibly up to 16-17.

 

Then there is group of players like Eli Ankou, Tommy Doyle, K.J. Hamler or Andy Isabella who are fringe NFL players, but I really don't think these guys prevent us from keeping any promising 6th round draft pick.

 

I think this is actually a great year to draft 10 rookies and hope that we hit on 8+ enough that they are worth a roster spot. There is enough room. I really hope that Beane resists temptation to fill roster spots with washed vets before the draft and give them some guaranteed money, so they will be harder to cut and will block roster spots for some young talent. Add a starting safety and then wait for the draft (or don't give any guaranteed money at least).

No problem. I did a WAY too early 53 about 2 weeks ago on here. Some of it is subject to change. In a nutshell, I expect a starting S and at least 2 more DL prior to the draft. I was advocating a trade up to 9 for the WR. This may or may not happen but it plays in this list. You can replace McKinney with Blackmon because I’m guessing that happens. You can also replace Davenport with Epenesa, Foreman with Ty Johnson, Cowing with Hollins and Thomas with Samuel. You still may add someone like Cowing and bump Shavers/Shorter to PS. Basically there are a few spots needed for guys to play and some reserve spots left. Here’s where I was:

 

Way too early 53:

QB (2):

Allen

Trubisky

 

RB (3):

Cook

Foreman

Gore

 

FB (1):

Gilliam

 

TE (3):

Kincaid

Knox

Morris

 

WR (6):

Diggs

Odunze

Shakir

Thomas

Cowing (returner)

Shorter/Shavers

 

OL (10):

Dawkins

Edwards

McGovern

Torrence

Brown

Nijman

Anderson

Van Demark

Jones

Doyle

 

DL (11):

Von

Rousseau

Oliver

Daquan

Jenkins

Davenport

Thomas

Anderson

Briggs

Shaq

Jonathan

 

LB (5):

Milano

Bernard

Dorian Williams

Spector

Matakevich

 

DB (9):

Douglas

Benford

Elam

Taron

Rapp

McKinney

Vaki

Cam Lewis

Hamlin

 

ST (3):

Haack

Bass

Ferguson

[Big Turk]

No, there is NO WAY 11 rookies are making the team this year. At most, maybe 6 or 7.  All we are doing by drafting 11 is ensuring some of them go to other teams.  A poor use of assets. Either trade them for picks next year, or use them to move around the board as you see fit.

[Kirby Jackson]

1 hour ago, noacls said:

DT is by far the biggest need on this team. They have 3 on the roster now: Ed, Jones, Ankou. If Ankou has to play meaningful snaps in season they are done. That means they need atleast 2 DT. They need another Edge too.

     Now look at Josh's weapons. Most likely targets breakdown:1. Diggs, 2. Kincaid 3. Samuel, 4. Shakir, 5. Cook, 6. Knox. Rookie WR comes in the ceiling is number 4 at best in target share.

     Do I want a receiver? Yes, if that's your BPA, you take him. However the front four has serious needs. If Murphy, Darius Robinson, or Newton is there you take them. 

You’ve been pretty vocal on here that you want to use 10-11 picks. Can you please elaborate on what you expect the 53 man roster to look like? There aren’t 10-11 spots now and they are still adding bodies. Help us understand why that’s a good allocation of resources.