Drafting 10 or 11 Rookies: Is there an argument to do that this year?

[ColoradoBills]

There is a lot of speculation of Beane using a number of picks to move around the board this season.

He has done that in the past, so the premise has legs.

 

On the other hand, Beane has never been in this situation needing some help in a number of areas while needing to get younger AND

controlling he cap going forward.  Lots of depth penciled in that could be improved on.  I look at the Hamlin's/Doyle's as examples.   

 

After the first 2 rounds (my personal hope is WR with 1 early pick and DL or S with the other), the remaining 9 are from the late 4th on.

Beane and his boys have found some decent players in these rounds, BUT the odds stack against you.

 

Could doubling up on Safety picks (if not in the 2nd) and OL/DL along with single picks of RB/CB/P have any advantage?

I know it's a risk, but everything has risk.

 

I just keep wondering if this approach has any merit.

 

 

[RobbRiddick]

I think he'll definitely package some of them to move up but I hope we pick plenty of defense, especially LB and DBs in the later rounds. McD and his staff are great at finding diamonds in the rough who have skill sets that match what they do in this D.

 

I'd like the early rounds to be offense but later rounds I'm happy for them to stockpile some defensive depth

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

There is a lot of speculation of Beane using a number of picks to move around the board this season.

He has done that in the past, so the premise has legs.

 

On the other hand, Beane has never been in this situation needing some help in a number of areas while needing to get younger AND

controlling he cap going forward.  Lots of depth penciled in that could be improved on.  I look at the Hamlin's/Doyle's as examples.   

 

After the first 2 rounds (my personal hope is WR with 1 early pick and DL or S with the other), the remaining 9 are from the late 4th on.

Beane and his boys have found some decent players in these rounds, BUT the odds stack against you.

 

Could doubling up on Safety picks (if not in the 2nd) and OL/DL along with single picks of RB/CB/P have any advantage?

I know it's a risk, but everything has risk.

 

I just keep wondering if this approach has any merit.

 

 

IMO, no.

 

Here's an example. It's the start of the 6th round. We have 188 and 1999.  You have a few players left on your board with 5th round grades on them.  Are you better off packaging one or both those picks to move up and get a 5th round graded prospect, or stand pat and miss out on players with higher grades to let the board come to you (or miss out on players of need with similar grades)?

 

For me, I trust Beane and co. in these later rounds.  Stay pat if it makes no difference. Package your sixths and sevenths to get guys you think are going to be better or play a position of need.

Edited March 17 by FireChans

[ColoradoBills]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

IMO, no.

 

Here's an example. It's the start of the 6th round. We have 188 and 1999.  You have a few players left on your board with 5th round grades on them.  Are you better off packaging one or both those picks to move up and get a 5th round graded prospect, or stand pat and miss out on players with higher grades to let the board come to you (or miss out on players of need with similar grades)?

 

For me, I trust Beane and co. in these later rounds.  Stay pat if it makes no difference. Package your sixths and sevenths to get guys you think are going to be better or play a position of need.

 

I do too.  I guess my counter to that point is, if they are good at evaluating the later round talent, wouldn't getting more of them

increase the odds of guys that could outperform their drafting round.

 

Maybe I'm confused as to how much Beane moves around in the later rounds.  I know he uses these picks to move in Day 1 and 2, but

has he been moving around a lot in Day 3, or just generally staying where the picks come up on their own?

[blitzboy54]

There definitely is. I suspect bean will try to get back into the 3rd round. So maybe 9-10 picks. 

[pennstate10]

As of now, bills have 2 picks in first 3 rounds. I see Beane trying to get back into the third, probably by packaging lower round picks. 

[FireChans]

10 minutes ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I do too.  I guess my counter to that point is, if they are good at evaluating the later round talent, wouldn't getting more of them

increase the odds of guys that could outperform their drafting round.

 

Maybe I'm confused as to how much Beane moves around in the later rounds.  I know he uses these picks to move in Day 1 and 2, but

has he been moving around a lot in Day 3, or just generally staying where the picks come up on their own?

the unfortunate answer is… it depends.

 

Do you think 1 of 2 sixth round graded players have a better chance of succeeding than 1 5th round graded player? 
 

I don’t know. You also have to consider position groups and need. A 5th round graded safety is more likely to make the team than some other positions, all things being equal.
 

I think you trust your internal scouting process and get the guys you think will be the best. If they can get a fifth round safety instead of a sixth round graded RB or LB, I think you pull the trigger. 
 

To answer your other question, sometimes we trade up, sometimes we trade back. Shakir was a trade up (5 and 6 for an earlier 5), for example. That’s a good example of targeting the talent over the extra picks.

Edited March 17 by FireChans

[ColoradoBills]

3 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

As of now, bills have 2 picks in first 3 rounds. I see Beane trying to get back into the third, probably by packaging lower round picks. 

 

Exactly what I was thinking.  Many have been saying that.  The thing is using the new Trade Value Chart you have to bundle A LOT

of those Day 3 picks to get from 128 (Bills top 4th round pick) into the mid 90's.  I figure it takes that 4th and 2 5th to make that move.

You also have to find a partner to do it.

 

So, once again, my new counterargument is on the odds that the picks given up COULD be worth more drafting guys than using them

on the chance of that one 3rd rounder hitting.

 

I'm in no way saying to do what I said, just getting feedback.  Thanks for yours!

[Rockinon]

If the WR they want isn't there in the 1st, they could trade down and perhaps pick up a 3rd. I can't help thinking there will be an early run on WRs.

[BBFL]

5 minutes ago, Rockinon said:

If the WR they want isn't there in the 1st, they could trade down and perhaps pick up a 3rd. I can't help thinking there will be an early run on WRs.

Agree on all accounts. 
 

I can’t see any of those premier X receivers lasting until 28. 
 

The ones that are more realistic of the top group; Mitchell & Thomas Jr. are probably gone. 
 

Trade back and picking up a 3rd rounder is indeed probably the smartest play. 

In saying that, there will be a quality defensive player to fall a little if that’s the drafting scenario ahead… So they likely take the value there if they like them. 

[ColoradoBills]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

the unfortunate answer is… it depends.

 

Do you think 1 of 2 sixth round graded players have a better chance of succeeding than 1 5th round graded player? 
 

I don’t know. You also have to consider position groups and need. A 5th round graded safety is more likely to make the team than some other positions, all things being equal.
 

I think you trust your internal scouting process and get the guys you think will be the best. If they can get a fifth round safety instead of a sixth round graded RB or LB, I think you pull the trigger. 
 

To answer your other question, sometimes we trade up, sometimes we trade back. Shakir was a trade up (5 and 6 for an earlier 5), for example. That’s a good example of targeting the talent over the extra picks.

 

Good post.  Generally, in the past, Beane has gone into the draft with a lot of lower-level vet guys to fill depth holes.  Many for double rookie

wage scales and most on 1-year contracts.  Just wondering if this year he might steer a bit of a different path.

 

My hope is he doesn't feel the need to use these late round picks to get his 1st and 2nd rounder.  Then I guess he has more options

on Day 3.

 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

I dont see roster spots for 10 or 11 guys after the moves he has already made. 

1 RB

1 WR

1 OL

2 DL

1 LB

1 CB

1 S

1 P

 

If I stretch it I can get to 9 and that is taking a punter. Now if they cut Gilliam and want to add another TE or 2 RBs you might get to ten.

Add the fact an UDFA is no worse than a 7th round pick and my guess is he makes a max of 8 picks.

He will burn the others moving around.

If there is not an impact player at 28 he should drop back and get an additional day 2 pick.  Maybe even try to get an additional day 2 pick next year. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

17 minutes ago, BBFL said:

Agree on all accounts. 
 

I can’t see any of those premier X receivers lasting until 28. 
 

The ones that are more realistic of the top group; Mitchell & Thomas Jr. are probably gone. 
 

Trade back and picking up a 3rd rounder is indeed probably the smartest play. 

In saying that, there will be a quality defensive player to fall a little if that’s the drafting scenario ahead… So they likely take the value there if they like them. 

Is there an impact starting DL at or below 28?  If not get the WR.  And so far I don't trust Beanes scouting of DL.  

 

Move up and take a closer to sure fire thing at WR.

Edited March 17 by SoonerBillsFan

[gonzo1105]

I think they will use 8 to 9 this year that will make the roster 

[ColoradoBills]

8 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

I dont see roster spots for 10 or 11 guys after the moves he has already made. 

1 RB

1 WR

1 OL

2 DL

1 LB

1 CB

1 S

1 P

 

If I stretch it I can get to 9 and that is taking a punter. Now if they cut Gilliam and want to add another TE or 2 RBs you might get to ten.

Add the fact an UDFA is no worse than a 7th round pick and my guess is he makes a max of 8 picks.

He will burn the others moving around.

If there is not an impact player at 28 he should drop back and get an additional day 2 pick.  Maybe even try to get an additional day 2 pick next year. 

 

I came into this idea with the assumption that if a lot of Day 3 picks are made that a few will not pan out.  It's the "odds" thing.

With some luck the guys that don't make it can battle with the UDFA and cheap vets for the PS.

 

I could make the point again that guys like Doyle and Hamlin can be upgraded with a rookie, so that opens up more 53 spots.

A punter in the mix would definitely be in the works.

[billsfan714]

I for sure think there is.  The guys who don't make the 53 go on the practice squad and as last year showed injuries happen and depth is important.   Wish Beane would let the draft come to him.   This team needs more guys on rookie 4 year deals.

3 DL

2 CBs

2 possibly 3 safeties

1 WR

1 RB

2 OL

[BBFL]

15 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Is there an impact starting DL at or below 28?  If not get the WR.  And so far I don't trust Beanes scouting of DL.  

 

Move up and take a closer to sure fire thing at WR.

Let’s hope they do. Think the majority of the FB wants that to happen. 

[ColoradoBills]

15 minutes ago, billsfan714 said:

I for sure think there is.  The guys who don't make the 53 go on the practice squad and as last year showed injuries happen and depth is important.   Wish Beane would let the draft come to him.   This team needs more guys on rookie 4 year deals.

3 DL

2 CBs

2 possibly 3 safeties

1 WR

1 RB

2 OL

 

I had no problem with Beane moving around in the past.  I'm just compromising and thinking he should try to let the draft come to him a

little bit more this year.  Get a couple more of the late rounders and hope they hit.  

 

As to the rookie deals, IF they are good enough for depth, the 4-year contracts save a lot of cash compared to the $1.7M vet depth on

one-year contracts.

[LabattBlue]

The number of open roster spots shouldn’t matter.  For every player they draft, one might end up being the diamond in the rough.  I would keep as many of the picks as possible…not trade them away to move up a few spots on Day 3.  

[Ethan in Cleveland]

2 hours ago, ColoradoBills said:

 

I came into this idea with the assumption that if a lot of Day 3 picks are made that a few will not pan out.  It's the "odds" thing.

With some luck the guys that don't make it can battle with the UDFA and cheap vets for the PS.

 

I could make the point again that guys like Doyle and Hamlin can be upgraded with a rookie, so that opens up more 53 spots.

A punter in the mix would definitely be in the works.

I agree some will not pan out. I just think there is a better chance some UDFA or two will make the team and he will use some of these picks to move around on day 2 and 3