CURTIS SAMUEL A BILL

[Dr. Who]

20 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks for the thoughtful response.   It's funny to me , because I agree with the first three paragraphs, in that I can understand what you're saying.  I don't know that it's right, but it makes sense.   I get, for example, that a big X might make it an exceptional receiver corps.  I don't know if that's true.  But I also get that a talented OC can figure out how to make different combinations work, so I don't know that a big X is the only solution.  

 

Why it's funny is I pretty much completely disagree with the last three paragraphs.   I think a violent, highly talented defense is essential to winning the post-season, and the Bills need real help in that regard.  So, I see defense as a greater need.  I also don't think that trying to out-offense the whole league is the way to win.  Somebody always stops offense.  It's not a sustainable philosophy for winning.  Defense is.  And I seriously don't believe the surround-Allen-with-talent thing.  He needs to be surrounded with enough talent; when he has enough talent, more talent doesn't make him better.  The question is whether the Bills have the right talent and the right coordinator.  The wrong coordinator, and it simply doesn't matter how much talent they put around Allen.

If you are in a position to field the equivalent of the '85 Bears, I say go for it. You can win a Super Bowl that way.

 

I think the current game is geared to help the offense, and in the post-season, the Oline often has a full pass to hold pretty much almost all the time without consequences. (Maybe it depends on which team you play for, I dunno.) So I favor taking that into account, though it's possible the pendulum will swing back. I still think I can find explosive defensive players later in the draft, but not at the edge. Peyton Wilson is going to be an amazing LB, though that's not a position we are likely to be looking at. You can get an interesting DT in the second. I like Tykee Smith and Jaylon Carlies as middle round safeties.

 

And yes, a bad OC will sink the plan. There might be diminishing returns on upgrading WR, but we haven't tried it enough to tell, imo. 

We aren't going to get an OC to equal Reid, but I think you can get sufficient to create an imposing offense that worries the other team.

Folks worry about Mahomes, even when his receivers are mediocre. Kelce is part of that, of course. They worry about the Dolphins, even with Tua, who is a good system qb, but not top tier. The Bengals are good, because they lucked into a situation with two WR1. You can't aim for that, but you can aim for better than we have had.

 

My bottom line is a Josh Allen led offense needs sufficient oline protection and weapons to become a constant threat. We shouldn't have long stretches of ineptitude, and the other D needs to be worried about us. Beane can acquire the talent to make that a possibility, and I don't think we're far off, actually. But we still need a few pieces, and I'd rather not put it on the back burner because our D is not ferocious enough. (I'm all for ferocious though. Rapp might not be the best player, but he brings an edge we need. More of that is fine by me.)

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah the whole "he's the 7th best WR so getting the 4th best DE is better" concept is definitely not something that someone who actually follows college football places any stock in.    It's something that someone who gets upset about there being a draft thread in November says in March when they suddenly begin to care.   The 7th ranked WR in a given draft might be more impactful than the top ranked QB.......let alone a non-premium position.   

 

 

 

Yea and while this safety class has some depth it is not a great top end class. In the top 50 only DeJean (who is a convert from corner) and Nubin are even in play. The rest of the safeties come from about 60 to 100 in terms of pure talent

[Shaw66]

56 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

If you are in a position to field the equivalent of the '85 Bears, I say go for it. You can win a Super Bowl that way.

 

 

 

 

I didn't say anything about the 85 Bears, and that's not what I meant.  

 

What it takes to win the Super Bowl is what the Chiefs did to the Bills in Buffalo in January:  Make it very difficult for a very good offense to score.   

 

Championship games these days are won by scoring in the high 20s and keeping a really good offense in the high teens or low 20s.   That's how most games go.   To be a champion, you have to hold down a really good offense, and the last two Bills losses to KC in the playoffs, the defense couldn't do it.  Offense did its part, but the defense didn't.  

 

It's only occasionally that the winner in those games wins by blowing the doors off the other team.  The defenses are two good.  Once in a while, yes, but as I said, it's not a sustainable model.   You win with effective offense that gets you into the high 20s and really tough defense that makes a good opponent struggle. 

 

The Bills might actually have had that kind of defense last season, with Milano and Bernard and Miller playing, but they didn't.  Now, if they all come back, they still are not yet in a position to have that kind of defense because they need help in the defensive backfield and on the D line.  

 

They had the offense last season, or were close, but if Dion getting pushed into Josh, and Samuel replacing Davis will make the offense better.  He's a more effective threat.  They need a center.   

 

Now, I'm not arguing for a first-round safety or center.  I don't know who's out there.  And Beane is always a surprise, so I have no expectations.   All I'm saying is the notion that the way to win is by constantly giving Josh more and more weapons isn't the way.  The Chiefs let Tyreek Hill walk and have never replaced him.   Josh had as many weapons last season as Mahomes had, at least until whatever it was happened to Diggs.  It's not about more weapons.  It's about effective weapons and tough-as-nails defense. 

[Dr. Who]

21 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I didn't say anything about the 85 Bears, and that's not what I meant.  

 

What it takes to win the Super Bowl is what the Chiefs did to the Bills in Buffalo in January:  Make it very difficult for a very good offense to score.   

 

Championship games these days are won by scoring in the high 20s and keeping a really good offense in the high teens or low 20s.   That's how most games go.   To be a champion, you have to hold down a really good offense, and the last two Bills losses to KC in the playoffs, the defense couldn't do it.  Offense did its part, but the defense didn't.  

 

It's only occasionally that the winner in those games wins by blowing the doors off the other team.  The defenses are two good.  Once in a while, yes, but as I said, it's not a sustainable model.   You win with effective offense that gets you into the high 20s and really tough defense that makes a good opponent struggle. 

 

The Bills might actually have had that kind of defense last season, with Milano and Bernard and Miller playing, but they didn't.  Now, if they all come back, they still are not yet in a position to have that kind of defense because they need help in the defensive backfield and on the D line.  

 

They had the offense last season, or were close, but if Dion getting pushed into Josh, and Samuel replacing Davis will make the offense better.  He's a more effective threat.  They need a center.   

 

Now, I'm not arguing for a first-round safety or center.  I don't know who's out there.  And Beane is always a surprise, so I have no expectations.   All I'm saying is the notion that the way to win is by constantly giving Josh more and more weapons isn't the way.  The Chiefs let Tyreek Hill walk and have never replaced him.   Josh had as many weapons last season as Mahomes had, at least until whatever it was happened to Diggs.  It's not about more weapons.  It's about effective weapons and tough-as-nails defense. 

Okay, at this point, we are talking past one another to some degree. I'm not talking about blowing the doors off elite teams in the postseason. That is unlikely to happen. We have invested heavily in DL and DB in the past, only to falter in the post-season. Would we have won last season without the spate of injuries? Unknown, but it's not a ridiculous surmise. It could have happened.

 

I wrote in the thread on mid-round players that folks think are going to be good players a list at Center, DT, and S. Center is one of the better positions in the draft. You have one possible first rounder (Powers-Johnson) and a couple of day 2 fellas (Frazier and Van Pran). There are also a couple of day 3 Centers (probably) that are above average (Limmer and Bortolini). The Bills can get one of them.

 

I think you have undervalued my point that stressing the opposing offense to keep up can make the job of the D easier. And naturally, no one is likely to be the '85 Bears, that was a rhetorical gesture. You need an effective D, and it is better to have a dominating one, but that is hard to achieve in this era. And I think we have not sufficiently played into our strength, which is the elite and very rare talent of Josh Allen.

 

And then, it is always a matter of where the strength of an individual draft lies. I don't think there is an edge player worth the early pick, unless Latu falls way further than anyone anticipates. Anyway, if they go D early, I hope it's for Cooper Dejean or a top CB, because the value isn't there at the DL position. I think it would be a waste of an opportunity to grab a potential WR1, but whoever they select, I'll be hoping it is a difference maker, and I'm sure you will be, too.

Edited March 17 by Dr. Who

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Do we know what number he’s choosing?

[BADOLBILZ]

13 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

 What it takes to win the Super Bowl is what the Chiefs did to the Bills in Buffalo in January:  Make it very difficult for a very good offense to score.   

 

 

The Bills averaged 26.5 points per game on the season and missed a chip shot field goal at the end to finish the Chiefs loss with 24.    The Chiefs really didn't stop the Bills offense from getting all it was capable of.    The Bills just couldn't generate big air yard completions so they had to nibble the Chiefs to death.   They stupidly attempted to complete the longest air yard pass tiny target Khalil Shakir would have had on the season on 2nd and 9 after the 2 minute warning instead of just matriculating to the end zone against a tired Chiefs D over 5 to 6 more plays and finishing off a physical domination of the Chiefs defense with what would have been about 40 minutes of possession and 400 yards.    

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

The Bills averaged 26.5 points per game on the season and missed a chip shot field goal at the end to finish the Chiefs loss with 24.    The Chiefs really didn't stop the Bills offense from getting all it was capable of.    The Bills just couldn't generate big air yard completions so they had to nibble the Chiefs to death.   They stupidly attempted to complete the longest air yard pass tiny target Khalil Shakir would have had on the season on 2nd and 9 after the 2 minute warning instead of just matriculating to the end zone against a tired Chiefs D over 5 to 6 more plays and finishing off a physical domination of the Chiefs defense with what would have been about 40 minutes of possession and 400 yards.    

to say nothing of bargain basement FA pickup trent Sherfield predictably dropping what would have been another massive play in terms of +win%

 

How that game isn't an indictment of their attitude toward offensive investment vis a vis wideouts is amazing

[BigAl2526]

Does the signing of Samuel make a trade down more likely??  The Bills still need safeties and defensive line help.  Otherwise, it's mostly a matter of trying to upgrade depth and drafting for the future.  There are a couple first round DTs and maybe three first round value DEs.  There are very few first round value safeties in this draft.  Tyler Nubin may be the best and he's a borderline first rounder.  The first round value defensive ends are likely to be gone.  There may be a first round value at DT, but there may not be too.  I have seen offensive tackles mocked to the Bills in the first round, but I don't see it.  Dion Dawkins is still in the prime of his career and he's a  better than average left tackle.  Spencer Brown has had a rough first few years to his career, but he was serviceable last season and it's not unreasonable to think he still has some upside.  Buffalo also has some younger prospects on the roster.  They could certainly stand to upgrade their depth, but I don't see them feeling the need to draft a starter, and I don't think they'll use the first round to upgrade depth unless there is nothing else left that they want to draft.  I wouldn't want them trading down too far, but without a compelling choice at 28, why not look at trade down options?

[Dr. Who]

9 minutes ago, BigAl2526 said:

Does the signing of Samuel make a trade down more likely??  The Bills still need safeties and defensive line help.  Otherwise, it's mostly a matter of trying to upgrade depth and drafting for the future.  There are a couple first round DTs and maybe three first round value DEs.  There are very few first round value safeties in this draft.  Tyler Nubin may be the best and he's a borderline first rounder.  The first round value defensive ends are likely to be gone.  There may be a first round value at DT, but there may not be too.  I have seen offensive tackles mocked to the Bills in the first round, but I don't see it.  Dion Dawkins is still in the prime of his career and he's a  better than average left tackle.  Spencer Brown has had a rough first few years to his career, but he was serviceable last season and it's not unreasonable to think he still has some upside.  Buffalo also has some younger prospects on the roster.  They could certainly stand to upgrade their depth, but I don't see them feeling the need to draft a starter, and I don't think they'll use the first round to upgrade depth unless there is nothing else left that they want to draft.  I wouldn't want them trading down too far, but without a compelling choice at 28, why not look at trade down options?

I don't think there are any first round safeties, but McD would love Cooper Dejean, and in a vacuum, I'd like him, too. 

It is a myth that there are three first round value DEs. It's one of the worst position classes in the draft. I don't think either of the Robinsons are true first round values.

Latu, you should take, but he won't be there. The first round DTs mainly play the same position Ed Oliver does. It's not a good match, and not good value. Newton is good, though.

 

I think they will try to grab Thomas or Mitchell if they can. A trade up would not shock me, especially if it is a small jump. A trade back should be the fall back option, but I think it represents a fail on Beane's part. He should go get the potential WR1, though trading back and picking up a third could work out.

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 hours ago, BigAl2526 said:

Does the signing of Samuel make a trade down more likely??  The Bills still need safeties and defensive line help.  Otherwise, it's mostly a matter of trying to upgrade depth and drafting for the future.  There are a couple first round DTs and maybe three first round value DEs.  There are very few first round value safeties in this draft.  Tyler Nubin may be the best and he's a borderline first rounder.  The first round value defensive ends are likely to be gone.  There may be a first round value at DT, but there may not be too.  I have seen offensive tackles mocked to the Bills in the first round, but I don't see it.  Dion Dawkins is still in the prime of his career and he's a  better than average left tackle.  Spencer Brown has had a rough first few years to his career, but he was serviceable last season and it's not unreasonable to think he still has some upside.  Buffalo also has some younger prospects on the roster.  They could certainly stand to upgrade their depth, but I don't see them feeling the need to draft a starter, and I don't think they'll use the first round to upgrade depth unless there is nothing else left that they want to draft.  I wouldn't want them trading down too far, but without a compelling choice at 28, why not look at trade down options?

We don't need first round safety help.  Hyde and poyer were 4th and 7th round picks.

[Prospector]

Holy typing wars Batman! Some of you guys had a lot to say… we need a publicist to break all this down because we ain’t reading all that hootinnany

[MrEpsYtown]

4 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Do we know what number he’s choosing?

Finally something that matters! Nah he said “we’ll see about that” when asked in the press conference. I’m going to guess 0 or 1. 

[Shaw66]

11 hours ago, Dr. Who said:

Okay, at this point, we are talking past one another to some degree. I'm not talking about blowing the doors off elite teams in the postseason. That is unlikely to happen. We have invested heavily in DL and DB in the past, only to falter in the post-season. Would we have won last season without the spate of injuries? Unknown, but it's not a ridiculous surmise. It could have happened.

 

I wrote in the thread on mid-round players that folks think are going to be good players a list at Center, DT, and S. Center is one of the better positions in the draft. You have one possible first rounder (Powers-Johnson) and a couple of day 2 fellas (Frazier and Van Pran). There are also a couple of day 3 Centers (probably) that are above average (Limmer and Bortolini). The Bills can get one of them.

 

I think you have undervalued my point that stressing the opposing offense to keep up can make the job of the D easier. And naturally, no one is likely to be the '85 Bears, that was a rhetorical gesture. You need an effective D, and it is better to have a dominating one, but that is hard to achieve in this era. And I think we have not sufficiently played into our strength, which is the elite and very rare talent of Josh Allen.

 

And then, it is always a matter of where the strength of an individual draft lies. I don't think there is an edge player worth the early pick, unless Latu falls way further than anyone anticipates. Anyway, if they go D early, I hope it's for Cooper Dejean or a top CB, because the value isn't there at the DL position. I think it would be a waste of an opportunity to grab a potential WR1, but whoever they select, I'll be hoping it is a difference maker, and I'm sure you will be, too.

Thanks.  I'm not sure we were talking past each other.  I've enjoyed it, getting to understand your perspective about this.  You haven't convinced me about philosophy, and I haven't convinced you, but that's okay.   Your points about the draft make a lot of sense.  I don't know the players in the draft, but I get your point.  Bills needed a guard last year, but it wasn't a first-round move.  Second round was the place to find a guard, and they did.   If it's a second-round center this year, that's great.   I really wasn't talking about what the Bills should be doing in the draft as talking about what the team needs.   I don't think the Bills need a Tee Higgins to round out the receiver room.  If they get a first-round receiver, it's a good move because in a year or two he'll replace Diggs, and he'll help this year, but I don't think the team needs a Tee Higgins to get the receiver room to the right level of talent.  I think for 2024 a talent like that may be nice, but it's probably overkill.   You don't think it's overkill.   Got it. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

11 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I didn't say anything about the 85 Bears, and that's not what I meant.  

 

What it takes to win the Super Bowl is what the Chiefs did to the Bills in Buffalo in January:  Make it very difficult for a very good offense to score.   

 

Championship games these days are won by scoring in the high 20s and keeping a really good offense in the high teens or low 20s.   That's how most games go.   To be a champion, you have to hold down a really good offense, and the last two Bills losses to KC in the playoffs, the defense couldn't do it.  Offense did its part, but the defense didn't.  

 

It's only occasionally that the winner in those games wins by blowing the doors off the other team.  The defenses are two good.  Once in a while, yes, but as I said, it's not a sustainable model.   You win with effective offense that gets you into the high 20s and really tough defense that makes a good opponent struggle. 

 

The Bills might actually have had that kind of defense last season, with Milano and Bernard and Miller playing, but they didn't.  Now, if they all come back, they still are not yet in a position to have that kind of defense because they need help in the defensive backfield and on the D line.  

 

They had the offense last season, or were close, but if Dion getting pushed into Josh, and Samuel replacing Davis will make the offense better.  He's a more effective threat.  They need a center.   

 

Now, I'm not arguing for a first-round safety or center.  I don't know who's out there.  And Beane is always a surprise, so I have no expectations.   All I'm saying is the notion that the way to win is by constantly giving Josh more and more weapons isn't the way.  The Chiefs let Tyreek Hill walk and have never replaced him.   Josh had as many weapons last season as Mahomes had, at least until whatever it was happened to Diggs.  It's not about more weapons.  It's about effective weapons and tough-as-nails defense. 

You have to pressure mahomes with the front 4, and take Kelsey away, Buffalo does either. 

 

We have whiffed on too many DL, whomever our DL scouts are, would have been fired if I was the owner.  

 

At this point get more firepower and out score them.  McDermott with his schemes and lack of ability to either scout or develop DL talent isn't going to get it done for us.

 

McDermott is the definition of insanity.

Edited March 17 by SoonerBillsFan

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

We have whiffed on too many DL, whomever our DL scouts are, would have been fired if I was the owner.  

 

At this point get more firepower and out score them.  McDermott with his schemes and lack of ability to either scout or develop DL talent isn't going to get it done for us.

 

McDermott is the definition of insanity.

 

On the surface I feel the same. But we've extended two out of our four day 1 and 2 picks on the D-line. And might extend a third in Rousseau. We seem to be doubling down on the D-line investments we have made. Unless I am forgetting someone, the only one that was a draft day flop for us was Basham. 

 

I would also say, the D has been good to great in the regular season. And they have even had some nice moments in the postseason. The problem is they have been consistently horrendous against divisional round opponents. It's about getting the defense to play well against the best competition. That's how teams get to the Super Bowl. You don't make it to the Super Bowl winning shootouts. That might work one year if you get lucky but more often than not you have to be able to keep a team to 24 or less points. 

[FireChans]

33 minutes ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

On the surface I feel the same. But we've extended two out of our four day 1 and 2 picks on the D-line. And might extend a third in Rousseau. We seem to be doubling down on the D-line investments we have made. Unless I am forgetting someone, the only one that was a draft day flop for us was Basham. 

 

I would also say, the D has been good to great in the regular season. And they have even had some nice moments in the postseason. The problem is they have been consistently horrendous against divisional round opponents. It's about getting the defense to play well against the best competition. That's how teams get to the Super Bowl. You don't make it to the Super Bowl winning shootouts. That might work one year if you get lucky but more often than not you have to be able to keep a team to 24 or less points. 

All we need is one year. we are not the successors to NE’s dynasty. We never will be.

 

Banking on one year of Josh getting hot and playing like the best QB in football in the postseason (which he’s proven he can do) is a much better strategy than banking on super JAG’s like Oliver, Rousseau, AJE, Benford etc etc all playing at a great level consistently in the postseason (which they’ve never proven they can do).

[ColoradoBills]

20 hours ago, Motorin' said:

 

Curtis Samuel is a massive upgrade from Harty and McKenzie. 

 

And Hollins is a decent upgrade from Sherfield and Kumerow. 

 

Now we need Gabe Davis's replacement, and hopefully a 6th receiver as well. Because this team should be carrying 6 wide outs with Josh Allen at QB. 

 

 

I agree with carrying 6 WRs this season.

Diggs

Samuel

Shakir

Rookie (1st or 2nd round)

Hollins (contract says he makes the team unless something really crazy happens)

 

That leaves 1 53 roster spot and 2 decent PS slots minimum.

 

Justin Shorter was a 5th round pick and was redshirted last year.  He's had a long time to get acquainted with the team.

I see him as the man to beat for the last spot.  Hamler, Isabella, Shavers and Thompson are most likely fighting for PS spots.

 

Might be hard for a 6th round WR to make the 53 roster.  But, definitely have to pick a guy late round if someone on their board falls significantly.

 

[Chandler#81]

juss gonna leave this here..

 

[Mat68]

15 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

I didn't say anything about the 85 Bears, and that's not what I meant.  

 

What it takes to win the Super Bowl is what the Chiefs did to the Bills in Buffalo in January:  Make it very difficult for a very good offense to score.   

 

Championship games these days are won by scoring in the high 20s and keeping a really good offense in the high teens or low 20s.   That's how most games go.   To be a champion, you have to hold down a really good offense, and the last two Bills losses to KC in the playoffs, the defense couldn't do it.  Offense did its part, but the defense didn't.  

 

It's only occasionally that the winner in those games wins by blowing the doors off the other team.  The defenses are two good.  Once in a while, yes, but as I said, it's not a sustainable model.   You win with effective offense that gets you into the high 20s and really tough defense that makes a good opponent struggle. 

 

The Bills might actually have had that kind of defense last season, with Milano and Bernard and Miller playing, but they didn't.  Now, if they all come back, they still are not yet in a position to have that kind of defense because they need help in the defensive backfield and on the D line.  

 

They had the offense last season, or were close, but if Dion getting pushed into Josh, and Samuel replacing Davis will make the offense better.  He's a more effective threat.  They need a center.   

 

Now, I'm not arguing for a first-round safety or center.  I don't know who's out there.  And Beane is always a surprise, so I have no expectations.   All I'm saying is the notion that the way to win is by constantly giving Josh more and more weapons isn't the way.  The Chiefs let Tyreek Hill walk and have never replaced him.   Josh had as many weapons last season as Mahomes had, at least until whatever it was happened to Diggs.  It's not about more weapons.  It's about effective weapons and tough-as-nails defense. 

At some point you have to pivot off the Chiefs.  The Bills cant try to out Chief the Chiefs.  With the pieces the Bills have on offense I would say that is a good unit.  So a train of thought is put more resources on defense and make that side good too.  I would rather put enough resources to make the Defense above or about average and make the offense great. 

[blacklabel]

15 hours ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Do we know what number he’s choosing?

 

Don't think it's been reported yet. He's been 10 and 4 in the pros and 4 in college as well. Cook has 4 and Shakir has 10. If he wanted a number with 4, Diggs has 14 but I think 84 is open. I bet he goes 0.