CURTIS SAMUEL A BILL

[BADOLBILZ]

50 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

I suspect for example all of the perimeter screens that went to Diggs last year with minimal success will now go to Samuel. 

 

Yeah the ability to turn a short pass into a HR is the single thing that the Bills lost most when John Brown fell off and wasn't retained.    This trick paid huge dividends in home games versus the Ravens,  Seahawks and Rams and the start point of this clip which is a TD against the Jets.    Shakir is a tremendous RAC guy but he does it a bit more like a RB where he uses the defenders aggression/leverage against them........he doesn't have the juice to just go from 0 to 60 like this.    Defense's often give the Bills this play........that's why it hurts when it's to Diggs for no yards or a drop.   

 

 

[Motorin']

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Samuel as of right now is a better player than Shakir. This post screams "I only watch the Bills." If Shakir hit the market right now he wouldn't be getting $8M AAV with $15M guaranteed. He isn't the caliber of player that stops you from trying to improve the position when a good opportunity presents itself. I appreciate Shakir's toughness and natural instincts after the catch but he was not an answer for our man coverage woes last year. Samuel is genuinely very good against man. And unlike Shakir he can actually play outside. I suspect for example all of the perimeter screens that went to Diggs last year with minimal success will now go to Samuel. So he raises our floor in a number of ways.

 

Some people are getting way too caught up in worrying about his best spot in the formation. The #1 and only priority this offseason was adding legit starting caliber talent to the WR room. It's laughable that now the complaint is "the Bills are going to have TOO MANY receivers." There will be injuries, rotation, varying game plans focusing on different skillsets to beat different matchups. This is a regime that has regularly spent a lot of money on players 2-3 deep at every single spot on the DL. But for some fans doing the same at WR is an unspeakable sin. I can guarantee you right now the effect of Curtis Samuel on the roster will be much more than the combined effect of Jordan Phillips and Tim Settle on the roster. Beane's only mistake is that he waited this long to make the philosophical change.

 

If Beane next does the easy and obvious move and selects the best WR remaining with his 1st pick we will finally have the long awaited influx of talent that this group has desperately needed. If that leads to a player like Shakir getting less attention, all that means is he will also face more favorable matchups which can only a good thing.

 

Curtis Samuel is a massive upgrade from Harty and McKenzie. 

 

And Hollins is a decent upgrade from Sherfield and Kumerow. 

 

Now we need Gabe Davis's replacement, and hopefully a 6th receiver as well. Because this team should be carrying 6 wide outs with Josh Allen at QB. 

 

Edited March 16 by Motorin'

[BillsFan130]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Samuel as of right now is a better player than Shakir. This post screams "I only watch the Bills." If Shakir hit the market right now he wouldn't be getting $8M AAV with $15M guaranteed. He isn't the caliber of player that stops you from trying to improve the position when a good opportunity presents itself. I appreciate Shakir's toughness and natural instincts after the catch but he was not an answer for our man coverage woes last year. Samuel is genuinely very good against man. And unlike Shakir he can actually play outside. I suspect for example all of the perimeter screens that went to Diggs last year with minimal success will now go to Samuel. So he raises our floor in a number of ways.

 

Some people are getting way too caught up in worrying about his best spot in the formation. The #1 and only priority this offseason was adding legit starting caliber talent to the WR room. It's laughable that now the complaint is "the Bills are going to have TOO MANY receivers." There will be injuries, rotation, varying game plans focusing on different skillsets to beat different matchups. This is a regime that has regularly spent a lot of money on players 2-3 deep at every single spot on the DL. But for some fans doing the same at WR is an unspeakable sin. I can guarantee you right now the effect of Curtis Samuel on the roster will be much more than the combined effect of Jordan Phillips and Tim Settle on the roster. Beane's only mistake is that he waited this long to make the philosophical change.

 

If Beane next does the easy and obvious move and selects the best WR remaining with his 1st pick we will finally have the long awaited influx of talent that this group has desperately needed. If that leads to a player like Shakir getting less attention, all that means is he will also face more favorable matchups which can only a good thing.

You're definitely right that Samuel would get paid more than Shakir as of now.

 

And I am definitely happy they added Samuel to the room as he's a good player.

 

But hmm if someone told me I can only have one receiver for 2024, Samuel or Shakir..

 

I think I would have to say Shakir as I love the trajectory the kid is on.

 

Glad we don't have to pick though as it's awesome to have both of them

[BADOLBILZ]

17 minutes ago, 2020 Our Year For Sure said:

Even if he got Metcalf, which I wanted at the time, he still should have traded for Diggs. Then you have an unstoppable offense and you can start actually winning championships.

 

It's not that simple.

 

John Brown in prime

Cole Beasley in prime

DK Metcalf going into year 2

 

That's a NICE looking WR corps in 2020.    Beane just backed himself into a corner by passing on DK/Brown.

 

2020 was a great WR draft.   They could have easily moved up for Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb.......which would have been my preference..........probably even with a comparable package to what they sent to Minnesota for Diggs.    I was a big fan of Jefferson(though not as much as Jeudy/Lamb for sure) even though @GunnerBill thought he was a big slot only and he would have been my pick there if they couldn't move up for Jeudy or Lamb the way the board fell.  I wasn't high on Aiyuk or Reagor but Tee Higgins was also there and I wouldn't have passed on him if Jefferson were gone.   Beane might have passed on WR altogether.

 

I said at the time that the big downside of Diggs was that he would eat up 8 figures of cap space immediately and that they would soon feel pressure to extend him.    I'm not saying it's worked out badly by any means but there was always the understanding that that draft was full of WR1 types who would be cost controlled and allow the Bills more financial flexibility than paying a vet.  It's also notable that Diggs game was elevated in Buffalo.........he was very good but not the All Pro version he became when the Bills got him.

 

And let's say that Jeudy/Lamb/Jefferson/Higgins failed to perform great in Buffalo.........then maybe the Bills are in play for a veteran like Davante Adams when he gets dealt.    Diggs has been an excellent player but it wasn't an acquisition without drawbacks.

 

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

It's not that simple.

 

John Brown in prime

Cole Beasley in prime

DK Metcalf going into year 2

 

That's a NICE looking WR corps in 2020.    Beane just backed himself into a corner by passing on DK/Brown.

 

2020 was a great WR draft.   They could have easily moved up for Jeudy or CeeDee Lamb.......which would have been my preference..........probably even with a comparable package to what they sent to Minnesota for Diggs.    I was a big fan of Jefferson(though not as much as Jeudy/Lamb for sure) even though @GunnerBill thought he was a big slot only and he would have been my pick there if they couldn't move up for Jeudy or Lamb the way the board fell.  I wasn't high on Aiyuk or Reagor but Tee Higgins was also there and I wouldn't have passed on him if Jefferson were gone.   Beane might have passed on WR altogether.

 

I said at the time that the big downside of Diggs was that he would eat up 8 figures of cap space immediately and that they would soon feel pressure to extend him.    I'm not saying it's worked out badly by any means but there was always the understanding that that draft was full of WR1 types who would be cost controlled and allow the Bills more financial flexibility than paying a vet.  It's also notable that Diggs game was elevated in Buffalo.........he was very good but not the All Pro version he became when the Bills got him.

 

And let's say that Jeudy/Lamb/Jefferson/Higgins failed to perform great in Buffalo.........then maybe the Bills are in play for a veteran like Davante Adams when he gets dealt.    Diggs has been an excellent player but it wasn't an acquisition without drawbacks.

 

Some folks think signing Samuel means Beane should pass on the 2024 WR draft, or wait until you're left with tier 3 and below because of S and DL. Beane seems to have grown into the job. I hope he's smart enough not to wait until day 3 to take a WR in this draft. 

Edited March 16 by Dr. Who

[SoonerBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Some folks think signing Samuel means Beane should pass on the 2024 WR draft, or wait until you're left with tier 3 and below because of S and DL. Beane seems to have grown into the job. I hope he's smart enough not to wait until day 3 to take a WR in this draft. 

WR at 28 or trade up for one, period.

[CaptnCoke11]

First or 2nd round WR now and the WR room is looking good.  

[In Summary]

2 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

First or 2nd round WR now and the WR room is looking good.  

To not draft a top end WR in a WR heavy draft would be criminal. 

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Some folks think signing Samuel means Beane should pass on the 2024 WR draft, or wait until you're left with tier 3 and below because of S and DL. Beane seems to have grown into the job. I hope he's smart enough not to wait until day 3 to take a WR in this draft. 

I hope you’re right

[Dr. Who]

Just now, SoonerBillsFan said:

WR at 28 or trade up for one, period.

Better pray Cooper Dejean isn't on the table at #28, because I can't see McD passing on him. 

I think Beane will land a veteran S yet, and I'd like to see him gamble some depth to go get the best possible WR in round 1.

My confidence in that happening fluctuates by the day.

 

[CaptnCoke11]

1 minute ago, Dr. Who said:

Better pray Cooper Dejean isn't on the table at #28, because I can't see McD passing on him. 

I think Beane will land a veteran S yet, and I'd like to see him gamble some depth to go get the best possible WR in round 1.

My confidence in that happening fluctuates by the day.

 

Being at 28 may take them out of the round 1 receiver market.  I wouldn’t settle for the 7th or 8th best prospect when there will probably be a much better prospect at a different position there 

[Dr. Who]

5 minutes ago, CaptnCoke11 said:

Being at 28 may take them out of the round 1 receiver market.  I wouldn’t settle for the 7th or 8th best prospect when there will probably be a much better prospect at a different position there 

I'm sorry, I just hate that argument. Positional value ought to be a consideration. 

You don't just say, well, I could have the seventh best WR or the second best S, I guess I better pick S.

Look at the loaded free agents at S. Look at how RB is now a position you can fill with late round fellas and UFA.

 

And this is an exceptionally good draft at WR, so the seventh best is likely the third best in an ordinary draft.

Regardless, my view is that they should draft someone who can conceivably grow into WR1, and preferably someone who is a big X with speed and good hands. That is a piece that we presently lack, and adding it to what we have in the WR room will make the entire ensemble much more dangerous.

 

I sure as hell wouldn't pass on an AD Mitchell to take Chop Robinson, for instance.

Edited March 16 by Dr. Who

[BADOLBILZ]

48 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I'm sorry, I just hate that argument. Positional value ought to be a consideration. 

You don't just say, well, I could have the seventh best WR or the second best S, I guess I better pick S.

Look at the loaded free agents at S. Look at how RB is now a position you can fill with late round fellas and UFA.

 

And this is an exceptionally good draft at WR, so the seventh best is likely the third best in an ordinary draft.

Regardless, my view is that they should draft someone who can conceivably grow into WR1, and preferably someone who is a big X with speed and good hands. That is a piece that we presently lack, and adding it to what we have in the WR room will make the entire ensemble much more dangerous.

 

I sure as hell wouldn't pass on an AD Mitchell to take Chop Robinson, for instance.

 

 

Yeah the whole "he's the 7th best WR so getting the 4th best DE is better" concept is definitely not something that someone who actually follows college football places any stock in.    It's something that someone who gets upset about there being a draft thread in November says in March when they suddenly begin to care.   The 7th ranked WR in a given draft might be more impactful than the top ranked QB.......let alone a non-premium position.   

 

 

Edited March 16 by BADOLBILZ

[Shaw66]

35 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

I'm sorry, I just hate that argument. Positional value ought to be a consideration. 

You don't just say, well, I could have the seventh best WR or the second best S, I guess I better pick S.

Look at the loaded free agents at S. Look at how RB is now a position you can fill with late round fellas and UFA.

 

And this is an exceptionally good draft at WR, so the seventh best is likely the third best in an ordinary draft.

Regardless, my view is that they should draft someone who can conceivably grow into WR1, and preferably someone who is a big X with speed and good hands. That is a piece that we presently lack, and adding it to what we have in the WR room will make the entire ensemble much more dangerous.

 

I sure as hell wouldn't pass on an AD Mitchell to take Chop Robinson, for instance.

Well, positional value is important, but I think you're greatly overvaluing the wide receiver position.  I think wideouts aren't much more valuable than running backs.

 

What?

 

First, look at the Chiefs.  Kelce at 93 receptions, Rice at 79, and Pacheco at 44.   They weren't exactly stacked with receivers putting up gaudy numbers. 

 

Then look at the Lions.  St Brown. LaPorta, Gibbs.   

 

The NFL just isn't about flashy wideout tandems.  

 

Now, think about what you're saying about the draft, about how deep it is at receiver.  It's true about the league in genreal - there are good recivers who make plays all over the league.  Samuel, for example.  There are a lot of good, athletic, fast players.  The league is much about getting a nice collection of those guys and designing an effective offense that they execute.   And that's what people have been saying here about the Bills. Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, and Kincaid in a well designed passing attack are a tough group to defend - as tough as any in the league.  Solid route runners, good hands, good speed, good run after catch.  

 

So, for the Bills in the draft, wide out has pretty low positional value.   A center or a safety is much more important to the 2024 Bills.  

 

Now, the Bills will need a new #1 wideout, so I agree that the long-term value of the position is greater than the short-term value, but the Bills have some time to find the new #1.  Beane always seems to make the move he needs to get the guy he wants, and I'm sure he'll make his move for a receiver when it makes sense. 

 

So, as much as you'd like a receiver in the first round, and I'd be happy with one, I think the notion that that position, particularly now, is not of significant value to this team right now.   If you're going to talk about positional value, Beane should go in a different direction. 

 

 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, positional value is important, but I think you're greatly overvaluing the wide receiver position.  I think wideouts aren't much more valuable than running backs.

 

What?

 

First, look at the Chiefs.  Kelce at 93 receptions, Rice at 79, and Pacheco at 44.   They weren't exactly stacked with receivers putting up gaudy numbers. 

 

Then look at the Lions.  St Brown. LaPorta, Gibbs.   

 

The NFL just isn't about flashy wideout tandems.  

 

Now, think about what you're saying about the draft, about how deep it is at receiver.  It's true about the league in genreal - there are good recivers who make plays all over the league.  Samuel, for example.  There are a lot of good, athletic, fast players.  The league is much about getting a nice collection of those guys and designing an effective offense that they execute.   And that's what people have been saying here about the Bills. Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, and Kincaid in a well designed passing attack are a tough group to defend - as tough as any in the league.  Solid route runners, good hands, good speed, good run after catch.  

 

So, for the Bills in the draft, wide out has pretty low positional value.   A center or a safety is much more important to the 2024 Bills.  

 

Now, the Bills will need a new #1 wideout, so I agree that the long-term value of the position is greater than the short-term value, but the Bills have some time to find the new #1.  Beane always seems to make the move he needs to get the guy he wants, and I'm sure he'll make his move for a receiver when it makes sense. 

 

So, as much as you'd like a receiver in the first round, and I'd be happy with one, I think the notion that that position, particularly now, is not of significant value to this team right now.   If you're going to talk about positional value, Beane should go in a different direction. 

 

 

Honest question. Do you pay attention the NFL as a whole? Or just follow the Bills?

[GoBills808]

20 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Honest question. Do you pay attention the NFL as a whole? Or just follow the Bills?

he said diggs/samuel/shakir/kincaid is 'as tough a group as any to defend in the league' lol

 

think it's safe to assume

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Shaw66 said:

Well, positional value is important, but I think you're greatly overvaluing the wide receiver position.  I think wideouts aren't much more valuable than running backs.

 

What?

 

First, look at the Chiefs.  Kelce at 93 receptions, Rice at 79, and Pacheco at 44.   They weren't exactly stacked with receivers putting up gaudy numbers. 

 

Then look at the Lions.  St Brown. LaPorta, Gibbs.   

 

The NFL just isn't about flashy wideout tandems.  

 

Now, think about what you're saying about the draft, about how deep it is at receiver.  It's true about the league in genreal - there are good recivers who make plays all over the league.  Samuel, for example.  There are a lot of good, athletic, fast players.  The league is much about getting a nice collection of those guys and designing an effective offense that they execute.   And that's what people have been saying here about the Bills. Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, and Kincaid in a well designed passing attack are a tough group to defend - as tough as any in the league.  Solid route runners, good hands, good speed, good run after catch.  

 

So, for the Bills in the draft, wide out has pretty low positional value.   A center or a safety is much more important to the 2024 Bills.  

 

Now, the Bills will need a new #1 wideout, so I agree that the long-term value of the position is greater than the short-term value, but the Bills have some time to find the new #1.  Beane always seems to make the move he needs to get the guy he wants, and I'm sure he'll make his move for a receiver when it makes sense. 

 

So, as much as you'd like a receiver in the first round, and I'd be happy with one, I think the notion that that position, particularly now, is not of significant value to this team right now.   If you're going to talk about positional value, Beane should go in a different direction. 

 

 

Well, you're one of the solid fellas on this board. I respect your intellect and general decency. However, I'm going to stubbornly disagree with your interpretation of the state of the team. I think we both are more optimistic than not, so none of what follows should be understood as a repudiation of that. Nonetheless, here's my brief counter-argument.

 

Wanting a strong WR room does not mean dismissing the value of other positions or groups. You can get a solid S and C outside of the first round. You can often find quality in the middle rounds there. So even if you think those are crucial to the Bills in 2024, that doesn't mean one is compelled to pick them above WR. It's a false either/or, if one intends that.

 

Now, I believe the WR room isn't just about upgrading talent, but getting the right mix of talent. Some folks don't think a big X is needed, for instance. If you have sufficient talent, just make that work. I think having that big X with speed and reliable hands results in an exponential jump on the collective value, the whole transcending the particular values of the parts.

 

I also just don't happen to like many of the other options likely to be there at #28. You can make a case for Cooper Dejean, I suppose. There might be a CB worth the pick. Unless Latu inexplicably falls, I don't like the edge players, and I would not want Beane to reach for need ahead of WR if a fella like Mitchell is still on the board. But also, and here, I'm pretty sure we just differ, I don't think we're likely to prevail in the post-season on the basis of a superior D. There's a threshhold below which you are sunk, but I think McD can coach them up to get above that line.

 

What helps a D a lot is a really outstanding offense that threatens and stresses the other team a great deal. We don't have that, but we could. We have RB1. I think we'll add another in the draft. It doesn't have to be a high pick, because you can get solid RBs late. I think they should and will add to the OL. You might find someone worthy late first, but I doubt it will outweigh WR as I judge the need. Kincaid and Shakir are young, ascending players. I'm high on Kincaid. Samuel is a nice add. It's still missing an outside boundary receiver to make the recipe complete.

 

But overall, I have more urgency not only because I think it is wisest to protect Josh Allen and surround him with the best collection of talent possible, but because I'm not sure about Diggs, how far he'll come back, and exactly where he is altogether. I think it would be foolish to wait until you absolutely have to replace WR1 before you bring the new guy in. Get him now and develop him.

 

 

 

 

[FireChans]

2 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

he said diggs/samuel/shakir/kincaid is 'as tough a group as any to defend in the league' lol

 

think it's safe to assume

Everyone is free to consume their entertainment in any way they wish, but I personally find it odd. I think the tales are lacking if you don’t pay attention to the rest of the league.

[GoBills808]

3 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Everyone is free to consume their entertainment in any way they wish, but I personally find it odd. I think the tales are lacking if you don’t pay attention to the rest of the league.

of course they are

 

low information begets no context which begets bad takes

 

ergo 90% of football content 😂😂

[Shaw66]

9 minutes ago, Dr. Who said:

Well, you're one of the solid fellas on this board. I respect your intellect and general decency. However, I'm going to stubbornly disagree with your interpretation of the state of the team. I think we both are more optimistic than not, so none of what follows should be understood as a repudiation of that. Nonetheless, here's my brief counter-argument.

 

Wanting a strong WR room does not mean dismissing the value of other positions or groups. You can get a solid S and C outside of the first round. You can often find quality in the middle rounds there. So even if you think those are crucial to the Bills in 2024, that doesn't mean one is compelled to pick them above WR. It's a false either/or, if one intends that.

 

Now, I believe the WR room isn't just about upgrading talent, but getting the right mix of talent. Some folks don't think a big X is needed, for instance. If you have sufficient talent, just make that work. I think having that big X with speed and reliable hands results in an exponential jump on the collective value, the whole transcending the particular values of the parts.

 

I also just don't happen to like many of the other options likely to be there at #28. You can make a case for Cooper Dejean, I suppose. There might be a CB worth the pick. Unless Latu inexplicably falls, I don't like the edge players, and I would not want Beane to reach for need ahead of WR if a fella like Mitchell is still on the board. But also, and here, I'm pretty sure we just differ, I don't think we're likely to prevail in the post-season on the basis of a superior D. There's a threshhold below which you are sunk, but I think McD can coach them up to get above that line.

 

What helps a D a lot is a really outstanding offense that threatens and stresses the other team a great deal. We don't have that, but we could. We have RB1. I think we'll add another in the draft. It doesn't have to be a high pick, because you can get solid RBs late. I think they should and will add to the OL. You might find someone worthy late first, but I doubt it will outweigh WR as I judge the need. Kincaid and Shakir are young, ascending players. I'm high on Kincaid. Samuel is a nice add. It's still missing an outside boundary receiver to make the recipe complete.

 

But overall, I have more urgency not only because I think it is wisest to protect Josh Allen and surround him with the best collection of talent possible, but because I'm not sure about Diggs, how far he'll come back, and exactly where he is altogether. I think it would be foolish to wait until you absolutely have to replace WR1 before you bring the new guy in. Get him now and develop him.

 

 

 

 

Thanks for the thoughtful response.   It's funny to me , because I agree with the first three paragraphs, in that I can understand what you're saying.  I don't know that it's right, but it makes sense.   I get, for example, that a big X might make it an exceptional receiver corps.  I don't know if that's true.  But I also get that a talented OC can figure out how to make different combinations work, so I don't know that a big X is the only solution.  

 

Why it's funny is I pretty much completely disagree with the last three paragraphs.   I think a violent, highly talented defense is essential to winning the post-season, and the Bills need real help in that regard.  So, I see defense as a greater need.  I also don't think that trying to out-offense the whole league is the way to win.  Somebody always stops offense.  It's not a sustainable philosophy for winning.  Defense is.  And I seriously don't believe the surround-Allen-with-talent thing.  He needs to be surrounded with enough talent; when he has enough talent, more talent doesn't make him better.  The question is whether the Bills have the right talent and the right coordinator.  The wrong coordinator, and it simply doesn't matter how much talent they put around Allen.