The Bills will be better in 2024 and everyone overreacted

[Trogdor]

10 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Serious contributor doesn't mean they have to start. Buffalo rotates its DL a ton so you're probably going to expect a rookie DE and rookie DT. That's 2. Then it'll be a rookie WR. That's 3. Rookie short yardage RB to round our the trio. That's 4. Maybe a rookie Safety would be 4.

 

So that would be 2 starters and 3 guys who are "depth" but serious contributors.

 

And totally disagree this roster is guaranteed to be worse. With the Samuel signing now our WR corps is already better. And we'll still get one of those early.

 

 

Wow, Gabe got signed by the Jacksonville Jaguars. 

 

You're right... that's a stellar organization with a long history of great decision, making he got signed by. We made a mistake letting him go 

Slot wasn't the problem...

[Trogdor]

10 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

Concerned about safeties the most, and maybe center, but if we get a legit future #1 WR in the draft and maybe a DE that can contribute, IF we stay healthy I think we can equal or better last regular season.

Don't forget what a ***** show the league was last year. There were so many starting QBs out that will be back on playoff contenders. Cinci is probably back in the mix with a better Pittsburgh and the same Ravens. Chargers will probably improve based on the coaches record of improvement and KC will still be a monster. God forbid if the Jags get it together and the south had them plus Houston. Last year was probably the best it's ever going to be. 

[without a drought]

18 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

I will respect Tua more when he starts consistently beating the Bills…

 

 

 

Then I hope he never gains your respect.

[transplantbillsfan]

18 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

What context do you want?  Davis put up that type of play for 3 of his 4 years.  You think a rookie will immediately replace that?  Shakir still hasn't. He might be, but he hasn't been yet.   You simply tossed out "Shakir is already better"....no context.

 

Career reception % when targeted

 

Gabe: 54.5%

Shakir: 75.4%

 

And if you want an argument about context regarding recency, here are those same stats just for 2023:

 

Gabe: 55.5%

Shakir: 86.7%

 

Gabe's biggest problem from day 1 has been drops. As we saw this past year, it's also a lack of connection with his QB.

 

Happy he's gone.

[transplantbillsfan]

18 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Shakir is already better than Davis is pretty out there as a take. There is less than a year between them in age and about 2,000 yards and 25 touchdowns in production.

 

Nah... it's an issue of utilization. Shakir wasn't utilized much at all in the first half of the season. Then he was. Everyone knows what Gabe is... it's not like we had to discover he was a _________ player.

 

Who was better over the 2nd half of the season. Not even an argument, right?

18 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

the Davis takes over time, out of necessity (due to the hill his detractors insisted on dying on), grew consistently more "out there".

 

Pretty much all they had at the end was "but, but....catch%!!!"

 

That and the inability to be on the same page with Josh, which I was more disappointed in this season.

 

There are multiple interceptions and missed big plays including TDs from 2023 that were on plays where Josh and Gabe clearly weren't on the same page.

[transplantbillsfan]

18 hours ago, FireChans said:

I mean, you could make the same kind of comments about the Bills organization. We have been a joke for about 20 years straight, and signed our own death warrant trading the Mahomes pick to an in conference team to torment us.

 

Yeah it would be the same pre-McBeane. Not anymore, obviously 

 

18 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

You’re saying maybe a rookie S. Who is playing FS in our system, if not a rookie S? Hamlin? That makes our S group very very very bad.

 

We all felt that way when we brought Jordan Poyer in as our SS.

 

Look at Sean McDermott's history coaching Safety. You don't have to trust him. I do.

 

15 hours ago, Dillenger4 said:

Open your eyes homeboy. Take a look at who else they secured this offseason FA. They got some top players that were available and are noted as having the third strongest FA period along with JAX and the Texans. 

 

Tua is still their QB, right?

15 hours ago, Trogdor said:

Slot wasn't the problem...

 

And??? Samuel plays all over the place.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

Bills are probably 7th or 8th best roster in the AFC.

 

But we have the 2nd or 3rd best QB.

[Shaw66]

I agree with Transplant, in part for a different reason.  I think most fans over emphasize player talent and under emphasize coaching.   In terms of team play, the Bills are one of the best coached teams in the league.  It's coaching that puts them in the top five in the league.

 

Debating number 2 or 3 receivers makes little sense.  Those guys are interchangeable and all will give you more or less the same production.  Samuel has different strengths and weaknesses fro. Davis, but their contributions will be about the same.  With Diggs, Samuel, Shakir, Kincaid, Cook there's more than enough talent for thw passing game.  It's up to Brady.  

 

In fact, across the whole lineup, most players are interchangeable. The talent in the league is really high, and one backup DT is more or less the same as the next.  You just need your share of playmakers.  Allen alone puts the Bills ahead of most teams when it comes to playmakers, and Diggs and Milano are in that category.  Bernard, Miller, maybe Kincaid.  Maybe the first round pick.  

 

If Beane does a good job, he will get a starter in round 1.  If it's a wideout, even better for the passing game.  If it's an edge, great.  Safety?  Great.  Center? Great.  

 

McDermott doesn't make predictions, but he will be disappointed if the Bills win fewer than 12 games. 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

 

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Bills are probably 7th or 8th best roster in the AFC.

 

But we have the 2nd or 3rd best QB.

 

I agree. The Bills are going to be middle of the pack in terms of overall roster talent this year. But they have Josh. They are well coached and they play in a winnable division. 

 

The last few years they have had a really solid all around roster that arguably just missed a difference maker or two. This year they still need a difference maker or two but they also have some holes to fill on the DL and in the secondary.

Edited March 16 by GunnerBill

[Shaw66]

19 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

 

I agree. The Bills are going to be middle of the pack in terms of overall roster talent this year. But they have Josh. They are well coached and they play in a winnable division. 

 

The last few years they have had a really solid all around roster that arguably just missed a difference maker or two. This year they still need a difference maker or two but they also have some holes to fill on the DL and in the secondary.

I agree, but I think thebholes are fillable.  Safety is my biggest concern. 

 

Difference maker might come out of the draft.  Might not.  

[Mr. WEO]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Career reception % when targeted

 

Gabe: 54.5%

Shakir: 75.4%

 

And if you want an argument about context regarding recency, here are those same stats just for 2023:

 

Gabe: 55.5%

Shakir: 86.7%

 

Gabe's biggest problem from day 1 has been drops. As we saw this past year, it's also a lack of connection with his QB.

 

Happy he's gone.

 

 

lol there you go.

 

Anyway...Davis's dropped 3 balls for a drop rate of 3.7 this season--easily his lowest.  Diggs had 5 for a drop rate of 5%.

 

INT's?  Allen has thrown 47 of them in the past 3 seasons (4 on target to Diggs this year).....but Davis was the  problem?  God love him but Josh had a LOT of communication problems it seemed this year....Davis was on the "receiving" end of a lot of them.

 

 

[Don Otreply]

7 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Yeah it would be the same pre-McBeane. Not anymore, obviously 

 

 

We all felt that way when we brought Jordan Poyer in as our SS.

 

Look at Sean McDermott's history coaching Safety. You don't have to trust him. I do.

 

 

Tua is still their QB, right?

 

And??? Samuel plays all over the place.

From the touted “highlights” of Samuel he is primarily short area / slot guy, with career stats that aren’t special, he is a better ball catcher and YAC guy than Davis for certain, but that’s not saying a lot.  We are now one position acquisition away from having a fully formed offense, and that is the Boundary / #2 / take the top off WR, should Beane take the needed step the offense will be very dynamic. Imo our WR room as it is right now is “average with potential” , why not go all the way and take the last step? Jmo of course.

[FireChans]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

We all felt that way when we brought Jordan Poyer in as our SS.

 

Look at Sean McDermott's history coaching Safety. You don't have to trust him. I do.

 

Jordan Poyer was a player in the league for 4 years. That’s the EXACT kind of player I want McD to target. A cheaper FA that they like and think has starter potential.

 

I don’t want a fifth round rookie. McD is a great DB coach but he couldn’t coach up Hamlin from being horrific out there. 

[Mat68]

Put more RPMs into the offense.  I think McDermott can Mcgyver a young defense into a top 15 unit.  The demise and window closing is over stated.  Buffalo was getting old and slow.  They saved a bunch of money and will be injecting youth and athleticism  into the secondary. 

[Toyo321]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Jordan Poyer was a player in the league for 4 years. That’s the EXACT kind of player I want McD to target. A cheaper FA that they like and think has starter potential.

 

I don’t want a fifth round rookie. McD is a great DB coach but he couldn’t coach up Hamlin from being horrific out there. 

Hamlin was just non-talented average player at best, period.  I don't even see him staying on the team this year past training camp.  He will be cut and signed to the practice squad.  Beane will bring in other players prior to training camp at DB as backups, and still be a improvement over Hamlin.

[GunnerBill]

8 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

We all felt that way when we brought Jordan Poyer in as our SS.

 

 

Actually, no we didn't. 

[Nihilarian]

My biggest concern is at the second most important position on the team, which is having a top elite center. The draft looks like the only source available now. 

 

Finding a stud center in the first two rounds is what I'd like to see and even then, there is no certainty that they will find another Creed Humphry, which I'd like to see happen. 

 

Someone who knows how to call and set the offensive line protections. Someone good enough to help the two guards do their jobs, help with the run game up the middle, and most importantly...keep Josh Allen upright while not getting hit. 

[transplantbillsfan]

2 hours ago, Mr. WEO said:

 

 

lol there you go.

 

Anyway...Davis's dropped 3 balls for a drop rate of 3.7 this season--easily his lowest.  Diggs had 5 for a drop rate of 5%.

 

INT's?  Allen has thrown 47 of them in the past 3 seasons (4 on target to Diggs this year).....but Davis was the  problem?  God love him but Josh had a LOT of communication problems it seemed this year....Davis was on the "receiving" end of a lot of them.

 

 

 

Interesting. Is Gabe a relative? Some of the miscommunication plays may have been somewhat on Josh, but objectively the VAST majority of plays involving miscommunication in 2023 were between Josh and Gabe. I can't find the advanced stats and I think Joe Marino finds them through a paid PFF subscription, but Josh's passer rating this year was AWFUL when targeting Gabe. It was in the low 70s if I remember correctly from his podcast.

 

Go ahead... pin all of that on Josh... it'll say a lot about you 

 

[transplantbillsfan]

The Bills are making moves. 

 

Ty Johnson back upgrades our RB corps from the beginning of the year considering how late he joined us last year.

 

I think Curtis Samuel brings some serious juice to a meh WR corps along with a lot of creativity. Watched his highlights because I've never really watched him before. In particular I watched the year he was with Joe Brady in Carolina.

 

Truly is Deebo light. Ran multiple times and for multiple TDs out of the backfield. Although I still think/want a WR early in the draft, I think our WR corps has already been upgraded with the subtraction of Gabe, Harty and Sherfield and the addition of Hollins and Samuel.

 

One week into FA... this is pre-draft and with Blackmon currently visiting and a bunch of CAP space cleared, here's very simply the way I'll assess every position. Is it "better" or "worse" overall at this very moment. Better vs worse is NOT only determined by personnel, though. It's also determined by experience & chemistry building (like for Bernard, Cook, Shakir, Kincaid, & Torrence) and health (Josh, Milano & Jones)

 

Feel free to disagree 

 

Coaching- BETTER

 

QB- BETTER

 

RB- BETTER (even if we only had 2, which we won't)

 

TE- BETTER

 

WR- BETTER

 

OL- undecided (I honestly lean towards better, but I know I'd be called a homer. Center and LG are question marks, but I also think the right side of the line will be better)

 

DE- BETTER (Already know I'll get pushback here based on Von. I will disagree. I really think Jonathan and Kline would be fine at #4 & #5

 

DT- WORSE (based on depth)

 

LB- BETTER

 

CB- BETTER

 

SAFETY- WORSE (but honestly... if Blackmon signs and it's Blackmon and Rapp I lean better)

 

PUNTER- same

 

KICKER- BETTER 

 

Special Teams- worse

 

 

So without a draft or a bunch of offseason acquisitions, unless you disagree with those assessments (and I embrace the discourse), I fail to see how this team will be worsenin 2024, barring significant injuries to its most important players.

[FireChans]

42 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

The Bills are making moves. 

 

Ty Johnson back upgrades our RB corps from the beginning of the year considering how late he joined us last year.

 

I think Curtis Samuel brings some serious juice to a meh WR corps along with a lot of creativity. Watched his highlights because I've never really watched him before. In particular I watched the year he was with Joe Brady in Carolina.

 

Truly is Deebo light. Ran multiple times and for multiple TDs out of the backfield. Although I still think/want a WR early in the draft, I think our WR corps has already been upgraded with the subtraction of Gabe, Harty and Sherfield and the addition of Hollins and Samuel.

 

One week into FA... this is pre-draft and with Blackmon currently visiting and a bunch of CAP space cleared, here's very simply the way I'll assess every position. Is it "better" or "worse" overall at this very moment. Better vs worse is NOT only determined by personnel, though. It's also determined by experience & chemistry building (like for Bernard, Cook, Shakir, Kincaid, & Torrence) and health (Josh, Milano & Jones)

 

Feel free to disagree 

 

Coaching- BETTER

 

QB- BETTER

 

RB- BETTER (even if we only had 2, which we won't)

 

TE- BETTER

 

WR- BETTER

 

OL- undecided (I honestly lean towards better, but I know I'd be called a homer. Center and LG are question marks, but I also think the right side of the line will be better)

 

DE- BETTER (Already know I'll get pushback here based on Von. I will disagree. I really think Jonathan and Kline would be fine at #4 & #5

 

DT- WORSE (based on depth)

 

LB- BETTER

 

CB- BETTER

 

SAFETY- WORSE (but honestly... if Blackmon signs and it's Blackmon and Rapp I lean better)

 

PUNTER- same

 

KICKER- BETTER 

 

Special Teams- worse

 

 

So without a draft or a bunch of offseason acquisitions, unless you disagree with those assessments (and I embrace the discourse), I fail to see how this team will be worsenin 2024, barring significant injuries to its most important players.

See, it’s not about being a homer. It’s about completely ignoring the rest of the NFL in the context of your evaluations. It’s just myopia.

 

Is it reasonable to expect some improvement out of Torrence after his rookie season? Absolutely. Makes total sense. He had a very promising rookie season (even though he kinda hit a wall towards the end of the season), he started every game, that’s all wonderful. 
 

But every single team in the NFL has a rookie/young player they expect to be better than last year. Some of them will be. Some, inexplicably, won’t be. And that’s every rookie/young player at every position. 
 

So really, saying the OL will be “better” when we cut a pretty quality starting C, shuffled a good G to a position he never played serious snaps at the NFL level, and shuffled a backup LG on this team to start (who would’ve been starting at LG if he was better than McGovern) is based on…. Torrence getting better. But every team thinks their young DT’s will be better. So what are we talking about? 

 

Is it possible that both McGovern and Edwards reach new heights next year? Sure. Is it more possible that they are who they are? Absolutely.

 

If there’s some compelling reasons outside of “our young players will only get better and build chemistry which is why the Bills will be better” that’s one thing. But when every single team can say the same thing, it’s kinda worthless.