Greg Rousseau 5th year option, extension candidate?

[Matt_In_NH]

The Bills have til May 8 to assign the 5th year option which will be for 2025 at about $19.076M.  The number is big for a DE so giving him the option means you have to give him that for 2025 or you need to extend him sooner.  Any chance Beane is trying to do this now where his value is maybe less than it can be after this year?  It would provide a more cost controlled/known cost moving forward.

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/lists/cost-buffalo-bills-fifth-year-option-greg-rousseau-nfl/

[H2o]

We probably should extend him if we can. But it may also be possible his agent tells him to hold out on signing a LT deal due to the massive contracts being handed out to DE's at the moment. Rousseau may be willing to bet on himself in that regard depending on the numbers that would get thrown out there. I do believe it's almost a forgone conclusion we pick up the 5th year option. The Franchise Tag is even more expensive than that. 

[GunnerBill]

5th year option, extend after next year is the most likely outcome. But not a slam dunk. 

[Green Lightning]

Extend him. Elite at setting the edge, run stopper and developing nicely in the pass rush. He reminds me of Phil Hanson. So not a game wrecker but all-around great DE. 

[BBFL]

1 minute ago, Green Lightning said:

Extend him. Elite at setting the edge, run stopper and developing nicely in the pass rush. He reminds me of Phil Hanson. So not a game wrecker but all-around great DE. 

 

Think that’s a very fair assessment. The question becomes how much his agent is asking for him on a long term contract. With the way some of these contracts this off-season have been, it might get pricey. 
 

I mean look at Brian Burns, who I would say is about the production you’re probably going to get if Groot plays 75-90% of the snaps in a season, where you’re getting around 9.5 sacks on the year (for an average). 
 

That guy just collected 5yr/$150m… Now I’m not saying that’s what Groot will get but the expected play time for him is going to increase this year. If he pans out even similar to Brian Burns stats do you pay him something similar?

 

Someone will if that happens. Kid is ultra talented at what you said; defending the run and is still relatively raw to football; 6/7 years of playing the position? A lot of potential in him. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

His value is somewhere around 4 years $70+ million right now. 

[Matt_In_NH]

Just now, Buffalo_Stampede said:

His value is somewhere around 4 years $70+ million right now. 

I would sign up for that but it will probably be higher AAV, what would guaranteed be, like $50M?   The 5th year gives him $19M guaranteed alone.

[BBFL]

Just now, Buffalo_Stampede said:

His value is somewhere around 4 years $70+ million right now. 

That’s exactly it. Right now that’s high for a situational guy… 

 

Hes easily capable of more. Be that statistical, play time or both. 
 

What if he has a strong season? Guy as it stands averages 40 tackles, 10 TFLs, 6 sacks & 14 QB hits… all on limited use; he’s averaging around 55% of the defensive snaps over 3 years… last year was his highest @ 60%.

 

More playtime is only going to make that price skyrocket… Again, he’s capable of it and still has ways to grow being relatively young in terms of experience at playing the position. 
 

 

[strive_for_five_guy]

Man, $19M seems steep for what we’re getting from Rousseau.  I know we have a bunch of needs entering the draft, seems like EDGE is right up there with WR and DT.  More reason to land a stopgap FS in FA, so we can focus on these positions in the first 4 rounds of the draft.

[MAJBobby]

Decline the 5th year option.  (That way Agent cannot use it as leverage)

 

Extend this offseason while he is still alot of "unrealized potential"  Eat when he explodes similar to Olivers Contract. 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

5th year option, extend after next year is the most likely outcome. But not a slam dunk. 

Agree. He is nothing special so far. Pick up the option and let him play it out just like Edmunds. 

[DCofNC]

You should NOT be signing any 5th year options.  Ever.  The difference between that and a franchise tag is minimal and it gives you ZERO flexibility to do anything.  You either extend or ride it out.  If you get a case like Edmunds, it buys you one more year at more than he was worth before the year, and then departing or you get somebody like EO who never answered if he was worth an extension, so you had to gamble anyway.   If they had just extended Edmunds, he would have been worth ~ 2/3 of what he got paid, you allowed him to re-set his market.  5th year is nothing but a bargaining chip for teams, if the guy is t worth an extension, you ride it out, if he is, sign it before they add more dollars to that contract.  Don’t screw around.  It’s fools gold.

[TheBeaneBandit]

1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:

The Bills have til May 8 to assign the 5th year option which will be for 2025 at about $19.076M.  The number is big for a DE so giving him the option means you have to give him that for 2025 or you need to extend him sooner.  Any chance Beane is trying to do this now where his value is maybe less than it can be after this year?  It would provide a more cost controlled/known cost moving forward.

 

https://billswire.usatoday.com/lists/cost-buffalo-bills-fifth-year-option-greg-rousseau-nfl/

I would both him and Spencer Brown before they become too expensive.

[Matt_In_NH]

14 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

You should NOT be signing any 5th year options.  Ever.  The difference between that and a franchise tag is minimal and it gives you ZERO flexibility to do anything.  You either extend or ride it out.  If you get a case like Edmunds, it buys you one more year at more than he was worth before the year, and then departing or you get somebody like EO who never answered if he was worth an extension, so you had to gamble anyway.   If they had just extended Edmunds, he would have been worth ~ 2/3 of what he got paid, you allowed him to re-set his market.  5th year is nothing but a bargaining chip for teams, if the guy is t worth an extension, you ride it out, if he is, sign it before they add more dollars to that contract.  Don’t screw around.  It’s fools gold.

The bolded is a weird position to take, would you also never franchise tag a guy, even a Josh Allen, ever?  Like never ever?   Signing the 5th year option for Edmunds worked out cause it was not that much, it also worked out with Oliver IMO.   But I do understand your argument about leverage...especially in this case where it is a highly paid position like DE.

[FireChans]

 

1 hour ago, BBFL said:

 

Think that’s a very fair assessment. The question becomes how much his agent is asking for him on a long term contract. With the way some of these contracts this off-season have been, it might get pricey. 
 

I mean look at Brian Burns, who I would say is about the production you’re probably going to get if Groot plays 75-90% of the snaps in a season, where you’re getting around 9.5 sacks on the year (for an average). 
 

That guy just collected 5yr/$150m… Now I’m not saying that’s what Groot will get but the expected play time for him is going to increase this year. If he pans out even similar to Brian Burns stats do you pay him something similar?

 

Someone will if that happens. Kid is ultra talented at what you said; defending the run and is still relatively raw to football; 6/7 years of playing the position? A lot of potential in him. 

I do so enjoy discussing paying Greg Rousseau for a potential 9.5 sack per year average, when the guy has never had more than 8 sacks ever.

 

 

[SCBills]

Spencer Brown, I feel great about signing him long term.  The jump he made this past year and the fact he's still so raw.  Dude could be special at RT. 

 

Rousseau seems more like we feel we have to given the draft capital, potential and the fact he's good.  But he's not been great (so far) and there's no guarantee he gets there.  

[HappyDays]

That article is wrong, he won't cost $19M.

 

https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections

 

OTC is estimating $13,387,000 because he didn't meet the requirements for any of the higher tiers.

 

At that price you definitely pick up the option. He's arguably the best run stopping EDGE in the league and is still very young with a lot of upside as a pass rusher.

[Paup 1995MVP]

1 hour ago, strive_for_five_guy said:

Man, $19M seems steep for what we’re getting from Rousseau.  I know we have a bunch of needs entering the draft, seems like EDGE is right up there with WR and DT.  More reason to land a stopgap FS in FA, so we can focus on these positions in the first 4 rounds of the draft.

The Bills rotate their DE’s a lot.  Rousseau has been a good but far from consistently dominant player.  The Bills defense (especially the front 7) is not predicated on star players.  Other than Milano.  (And they were still good when he went down last year) It is the collective talent of the group as a whole versus individual players that has made them a very good if not great defense under McDermott IMO.  And the secondary has always lead the defense.  
 

Rousseau has not earned a $19-$20 mill per year contract at this point.  I would not give him the 5th year option.  Let him earn that extension on the field through at least the first half of next season.  And if his game has gone to the next level, then give him the big money.  
 

 

1 hour ago, TheBeaneBandit said:

I would both him and Spencer Brown before they become too expensive.

Spencer Brown has had one decent season.  He has a ways to go to become very good, let alone elite.  I am sure if his game continues on an upward trajectory, we will pay him fairly.  

[BBFL]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

 

I do so enjoy discussing paying Greg Rousseau for a potential 9.5 sack per year average, when the guy has never had more than 8 sacks ever.

 

 

Ok. I understand that sentiment which is why I referenced a guy in Brian Burns getting a mega deal who’s not much better but sees a significant amount more in playing time… Groot hasn’t played more than 60% of the snaps in a season and actually has decent production. Give him more playing time those numbers will only increase…

 

Youd be paying him for production and potential. Both have significant upward trends with an increased playing time imo. 
 

 

 

[FireChans]

7 minutes ago, BBFL said:

Ok. I understand that sentiment which is why I referenced a guy in Brian Burns getting a mega deal who’s not much better but sees a significant amount more in playing time… Groot hasn’t played more than 60% of the snaps in a season and actually has decent production. Give him more playing time those numbers will only increase…

 

Youd be paying him for production and potential. Both have significant upward trends with an increased playing time imo. 
 

 

 

I don’t agree that numbers just go up the more you play. Leonard Floyd had more sacks last year with less playing time than the year before. It doesn’t work that way. 
 

Brian Burns has proven much more as a pass rusher than Greg, imo.