2025 comp picks - good 1st day for that

[QCity]

19 minutes ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

& Yet it was 100% wrong when forecast for the Bills. It burned them this year. I wouldn't go relying on it again. Treat it like found money if/when you get it. 

 

It didn't "burn" them. They received their pick a round later than anticipated. They're not going to change their entire front office philosophy because a handful of fans, who don't understand the system to begin with, are throwing a tantrum.

[Donuts and Doritos]

5 hours ago, QCity said:

 

It didn't "burn" them. They received their pick a round later than anticipated. They're not going to change their entire front office philosophy because a handful of fans, who don't understand the system to begin with, are throwing a tantrum.

 

Not throwing a tantrum, don't really care. But "a handful of fans" "don't understand the system"? Really? The Bills Front Office thought they were getting a 3rd, so did all the pundits/experts & every fan (never heard anyone say different beforehand). If you watched Beane's comments on it, he said he was surprised and pissed about it (as he should have been). He said they checked w/ the league multiple times & were told they were on track for a 3rd. He said it changed some things bc he was relying on having that 3rd rounder when he traded away his 3rd for Rasul Douglas. He also mentioned it again post first round when he said he was glad they could recoup the 3rd in the trade back in the 1st w/ KC. I'm not advocating changing their philosophy. I don't need to, Beane's a smart guy he adapts & isn't going to be taken by surprise again. I'm pointing out the comp pick spots aren't 100% predictable & therefore 100% reliable when planning, that's just a fact.

Edited May 1 by Donuts and Doritos

[GunnerBill]

11 hours ago, No_Matter_What said:

Sort of random observation but today there has been a big shift in OTC data. Mack Hollins, who was previously way below the threshold, is now listed exactly as cutoff player at 670 (I am not sure, but he was listed as something like 710th or so before).

 

This results in Bills losing 5th round pick for Floyd, and leave us with 4th round for Gabe Davis only.

 

I know that after Tremaine debacle these unofficial sources need to be taken with a grain of salt, but I still find it interesting.

 

Hopefully once all is said and done Hollins will fall under the line and we'll get 4th and 5th.

 

https://overthecap.com/compensatory-picks

 

 

 

Hmm. It's not showing that now for me. Possibly a glitch yesterday? He is close though because Edwards does count at $2.8m, so Hollins at $2.6m is only just the wrong side of the line. 

[GunnerBill]

37 minutes ago, Donuts and Doritos said:

 

Not throwing a tantrum, don't really care. But "a handful of fans" "don't understand the system"? Really? The Bills Front Office thought they were getting a 3rd, so did all the pundits/experts & every fan (never heard anyone say different beforehand). If you watched Beane's comments on it, he said he was surprised and pissed about it (as he should have been). He said they checked w/ the league multiple times & were told they were on track for a 3rd. He said it changed some things bc he was relying on having that 3rd rounder when he traded away his 3rd for Rasul Douglas. He also mentioned it again post first round when he said he was glad they could recoup the 3rd in the trade back in the 1st w/ KC. I'm not advocating changing their philosophy. I don't need to, Beane's a smart guy he adapts & isn't going to be taken by surprise again. I'm pointing out the comp pick spots aren't 100% predictable & therefore 100% reliable when planning, that's just a fact.

 

The bolded is true. but that is NOT what you originally said, is it? You said "comp picks are fake"

[Pete]

we should receive a 4th and a 5th for Gabe and Floyd, if the NFL does not mother***** us again.  I heard on WGR that the FA period where comp picks are calculated, ended last night.  No signings going forward count against comp pick formula

 

1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7 LFG Beane and Buffalo!

[GunnerBill]

4 hours ago, Pete said:

we should receive a 4th and a 5th for Gabe and Floyd, if the NFL does not mother***** us again.  I heard on WGR that the FA period where comp picks are calculated, ended last night.  No signings going forward count against comp pick formula

 

1, 2, 2, 3, 4, 4, 4, 5, 5, 6, 7 LFG Beane and Buffalo!

 

We'd only have one 5th and two 6s but no 7th. Our original 5 belongs to the Eagles, via Houston as part of the Diggs trade. Our 7th was swapped for NYG's 6th in the Boogie trade. So if the comp formula does work out for us then I make it:

 

one 1st

two 2nds

one 3rd

three 4ths

one 5th

two 6ths

 

10 picks total. 

Edited May 1 by GunnerBill

[BillsFanForever19]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

We'd only have one 5th and two 6s but no 7th. Our original 5 belongs to the Eagles, via Houston as part of the Diggs trade. Our 7th was swapped for NYG's 6th in the Boogie trade. So if the comp formula does work out for us then I make it:

 

one 1st

two 2nds

one third

three 4ths

one 5th

two 6ths

 

10 picks total. 

 

This is 100% correct. According to the go to Comp Guy for OverTheCap on Twitter, we would have had another 6th for Dane Jackson, but it was cancelled out with the Curtis Samuel signing.

[No_Matter_What]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Hmm. It's not showing that now for me. Possibly a glitch yesterday? He is close though because Edwards does count at $2.8m, so Hollins at $2.6m is only just the wrong side of the line. 

Wasn't a glitch. Hollins is no. 671 today, and thus under the line. Yesterday he was no. 670, and therefore over the line - cutoff is 670. So he is really on the edge, and I have no idea when will be real line actually drawn (and I also guess OTC doesn't necessarily have complete and correct data).

 

Anyway, it seems that it might be really close.

[JerseyBills]

On 3/12/2024 at 2:14 PM, MrEpsYtown said:

 

As usual the Ravens are going to crush it. 

rather have a 4th and 5th then 6ths and 7ths

On 3/11/2024 at 7:03 PM, eSJayDee said:

So far we've signed no one & lost 2 players (Floyd, Davis) who signed pretty decent contracts.  Trubisky & Morse don't count either way as they were released.

What about Samuel?

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Whatever we think the Bills will get, raise it a round. 
 

I think we learned that the hard way. 

[mrags]

Doesn’t signing Samuel take away from the comp pick? What about Hollins? Or Edward’s? 
 

[Donuts and Doritos]

On 5/1/2024 at 4:45 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

The bolded is true. but that is NOT what you originally said, is it? You said "comp picks are fake"

 

Actually, if you read the entire thing it is what I originally said:

 

"Comp picks are fake. Don't count on them. They reviewed this year's again & still kept us & SF at 4th round but gave Cincy a 3rd round. Totally not worth it. No one seems to really understand the supposed "formula", Beane & the experts said it would be a 3rd & planned accordingly. We'll give up talent & end up with a 7th next year. Until they fix it so the process is transparent & everyone can understand it & know what they'll actually get, it's about as real as the Easter bunny and as reliable as Nathan Peterman in the 1st half of a Bills game. " (Emphasis added)

 

Over the top, overly dramatic? Absolutely. Inartful? Perhaps. But the point is the same, they're hard to forecast & rely on in planning. Obviously, they exist, sure they're certainly useful. My complaint is relying on the predicted round you'll actually get & relying on it to make plans. It's counting your chickens before they're hatched & taking it as certain you're going to get that pick in that round (or 3rd) only to have it turn out that the pick is in a lower round (ie 4th). In that sense the 3rd round pick was a mirage, wasn't real, bc you never had it you only ever had the lower round pick.

 

IMO it's better to treat them like found money then when they come in you won't be disappointed where they come in. But honestly I posted about this originally way back on March 11th & have moved on to our draft picks & the upcoming schedule, so I don't really care. Just hoping the new pieces work out, mesh well & our retooled team can get it done this year. Go Bills!

 

Edited May 2 by Donuts and Doritos