Joe Marino's Locked on Bills Mock Free Agency

[BillsFanForever19]

10 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

But I think it's conservative in the fact that he didn't really go after any double digit million guys (per year) , and choose to spread the money out to a bunch of "middling " to "low end" guys.

 

I guess it depends how you look at it💪

 

I mean, we really can't afford to do anything too liberal. With everything Joe Marino did (or as little as he did, depending on your view), there's just 5m left over for Draft Picks, the Practice Squad, emergency spending, etc. We'd have to find a way to come up with even more by the end of Camp just to do the conservative projection he did. And things like Dion's and Taron's extensions aren't guaranteed to be hammered out between the agents and Beane by the start of Free Agency. 

 

The list of expired or released contracts this season is MASSIVE. Even if you take into account the players that we've re-signed so far, the players he projects re-signing, and players that have already been effectively replaced last season (ie Douglas for White, Joseph for Phillips, Murray for Hines, etc.) - there's still 17 bodies from the 53 that need to be replaced, with only 2 picks before the end of Round 4:

 

Kyle Allen (Replaced by Mitch Trubisky)
Damien Harris 
Latavius Murray
Ty Johnson (Re-Signed Projection)
Nyheim Hines (Not on the Roster Last Season)
Gabe Davis
Deonte Harty
Trent Sherfield
Quintin Morris (Re-Signed)
Mitch Morse
Ryan Bates
David Edwards (Re-Signed)
Leonard Floyd
AJ Epenesa (Re-Signed Projection)
Shaq Lawson 
Daquan Jones (Re-Signed Projection)
Tim Settle
Jordan Phillips
Linval Joseph (Midseason Replacement for Phillips)
Poona Ford
Tyrel Dodson
Tyler Matakevitch
Tre White (Replaced by Douglas)
Dane Jackson (Re-Signed Projection)
Siran Neal
Jordan Poyer 
Micah Hyde
Taylor Rapp (Re-Signed)
Cam Lewis (Re-Signed Projection)

 

Like it or not, a good chunk of our money is going to have to go to depth players. As it is, with this projection - we'd be relying on 6 Rookies between the Draft and Undrafted Pool for the 53. That's already double the amount of Rookie players we had on the roster last year in Kincaid, Cybo, and Dorian.

 

I know most fans are in the mind of "the window is closing - we have to get major difference makers now". But with the shape the roster is in, where we are cap wise, and where we're picking in the Draft - this year we're just going to have to do the best we can to fill the 53 with the best we can get across the board.

 

Luckily, the core of what gets us to the dance is largely in place and the players we're replacing won't be difficult to upgrade with even conservative options.

[HappyDays]

Love Joe, but his mock offseason would depress me. It has a very "running it back" kind of feel. Jones back after a major injury, Epenesa paid way above his true value, bringing back players like Jackson and Lewis and Johnson that can be found on day 3 of the draft or in late stage FA. Not a single difference maker brought in, just a lot of rotational players. Offseasons like this is why we haven't gotten over the hump.

 

Similarly I don't like his draft. McConkey in the 1st round would be a mistake IMO, he has no special traits and projects as maybe a faster Cole Beasley. He's a 2nd round talent. Braden Fiske is probably a late 3rd round talent. He is a 3-tech only so he would be a rotational player for us. His weakness in scouting reports is hand usage, which is a good predictor of a player not translating to the NFL. Honestly reminds me of Boogie Basham, a 24 year old prospect who may have already maxed out his abilities and has poor hand usage.

 

His offseason is overall just way too safe for my liking. We need to take some swings.

 

Edited March 10 by HappyDays

[BillsFanForever19]

12 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

Love Joe, but his mock offseason would depress me. It has a very "running it back" kind of feel. Jones back after a major injury, Epenesa paid way above his true value, bringing back players like Jackson and Lewis and Johnson that can be found on day 3 of the draft or in late stage FA. Not a single difference maker brought in, just a lot of rotational players. Offseasons like this is why we haven't gotten over the hump.

 

Similarly I don't like his draft. McConkey in the 1st round would be a mistake IMO, he has no special traits and project as maybe a faster Cole Beasley. He's a 2nd round talent. Braden Fiske is probably a 3rd round talent. He is a 3-tech only so he would be a rotational player for us. His weakness in scouting reports is hand usage, which is a good predictor of a player translating to the NFL. Honestly reminds me of Boogie Basham, a 24 year old prospect who may have already maxed out his abilities and has poor hand usage.

 

His offseason is overall just way too safe for my liking. We need to take some swings.

 

I don't like his Draft either. I get flack for being a McConkey hater. I'm actually not. I like a lot about him. It's just that he doesn't fit what I view as what we need at WR2 and what Beane will be looking for. And I see us having the opportunity to get a WR who is both higher ranked and is also a better fit for us when we're on the board.

 

As you said, Braden is a true 3T. And while we def need to get someone we can comfortably switch Oliver out for at times that's better than what we had (and in the case of injury), I don't know about using a 2nd for that role. I'd be looking at either a 1T as Jones has had injuries and is less of a sure thing than Oliver or at least a guy who has the versatility and size for either role.

Edited March 11 by BillsFanForever19

[Aussie Joe]

2 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I don't like his Draft either. I get flack for being a McConkey hater. I'm actually not. I like a lot about him. It's just that he doesn't fit what I view as what we need at WR2 and what Beane will be looking for. And I see us having the opportunity to get a WR who is both higher ranked and is also a better fit for us when we're on the board.

 

You have this strong opinion about MCConkey not being a “fit”…but a guy like Marino says otherwise … can you not at least consider you might be wrong and he might be right ?

 

There are no guarantees Marino is right either mind you,,. He always qualifies his predictions as having no inside information …. But I think he is a respected analyst in regards to the Bills and assessing draft prospects ..

 

 

[BillsFanForever19]

41 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

You have this strong opinion about MCConkey not being a “fit”…but a guy like Marino says otherwise … can you not at least consider you might be wrong and he might be right ?

 

There are no guarantees Marino is right either mind you,,. He always qualifies his predictions as having no inside information …. But I think he is a respected analyst in regards to the Bills and assessing draft prospects ..

 

Marino's take is that in signing Noah Brown, we can utilize him on the Outside and use McConkey more all over the place. 

 

While I like Brown and he's on my list of players I hope we sign, I don't want us using him as essentially a Starter on the Outside. I'd have him be more of a rotational role when our Starters need a breather and for depth.

[Aussie Joe]

25 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Marino's take is that in signing Noah Brown, we can utilize him on the Outside and use McConkey more all over the place. 

 

While I like Brown and he's on my list of players I hope we sign, I don't want us using him as essentially a Starter on the Outside. I'd have him be more of a rotational role when our Starters need a breather and for depth.

I listened to this a couple of days ago … but I’m sure he mentioned that McConkey could play the outside, which I believe is your major concern right that he is a slot only? 
 

 

[BillsFanForever19]

8 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

I listened to this a couple of days ago … but I’m sure he mentioned that McConkey could play the outside, which I believe is your major concern right that he is a slot only? 

 

He's an inside/outside guy. He's better fit for the inside, but you can put him Outside in certain packages. I personally don't think we're looking for a tweener. I think we're looking for a True Outside WR that has the prerequisite measurements and full time experience there.

 

I'm far from the only one who says this. A lot of prognosticators think he's a Pure Slot at the NFL level against longer corners who press. Literally just watched a One Bills Live video a minute ago where he was talked about:

 

 

If Beane ends up deciding on McConkey - I won't hate it. I trust him to make the right decisions. But I'd be more than a little surprised. I'm sorry that it annoys you that I don't think he's a fit for what we need and I'm predicting we'll go with someone else. But that's my opinion.

Edited March 11 by BillsFanForever19

[Paup 1995MVP]

9 hours ago, GoBills808 said:

Lol right I mean he'll be 28 before this seasons over

 

He's just not very good and never has been

He has been decent at times.  Tough player.  Good teammate.  Seems to get nicked up a good bit.  Mediocre hands-can’t seem to catch the low passes very well.  And isn’t winning a lot of jump ball type throws because he isn’t super athletic.  Not a high ceiling player but doesn’t suck.  But certainly seems overpaid for his production. 
 

Kincaid on the other hand can dominate and be a beast every week if he gets a little stronger and we make him a focal point of the offense which I think we will do.  

[BillsFanForever19]

10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

His offseason is overall just way too safe for my liking. We need to take some swings.

 

Side note: what's your idea of big swings? Are you talking Free Agency or the Draft?

 

I know your focus is on weapons for Josh. Top tier after Evans, Higgins, and Pittman coming off the market (not including Gabe Davis) are Calvin Ridley, Hollywood Brown, Odell Beckham Jr., Darnell Mooney, and Curtis Samuel. 

 

Is there someone there you have your eye on? My mind is more on the Draft for WR2. If they spent big on say Calvin Ridley or Hollywood Brown, I worry that he'd look elsewhere in Round 1. 

 

I don't see him spending the kind of money one of them would cost for anything other than WR2, nor do I see either choosing us for anything less than WR2. And I don't see him using a 1st on an off the bench WR. I also don't think Beane is closing the door on Diggs possibly being here next year already - and I think a Ridley or a Brown + a 1st Round Pick would essentially be doing that. Unless we were able to get 1 of the top tier guys on a 1 year deal.

Edited March 11 by BillsFanForever19

[Sweats]

I was onboard with it until i heard Zeke......nay, i say......big time nay.