Value: Safety is the new Running Back?

[Big Blitz]

NFL making clear safeties no longer worth the money: Why league's view on position has changed in recent years
 

Just like the running back market has cratered in recent years, the safety position has done something similar. There are some safeties worth paying, like a Derwin James or Antoine Winfield Jr. or Kyle Hamilton in a few years.
 

But more than $103 million across the league has been saved in 2024 cash salary at the safety position, according to Over The Cap. That's the most by far of any position group, outpacing the cornerback salary shed by early $40 million.

 

"There's so much opportunity to overcome physical talent with high level intellect and intangibles. So you don't have to overspend to get production," one NFL personnel executive told CBS Sports. "You can draft these guys Day 3 or put low free-agency resources into them and get production back if they are smart."

 

Said another personnel executive: "It's essentially a similar but not equivalent argument to running backs. So many teams are playing with third-to-fifth-round picks at the position and doing just fine. There are other areas of your team to spend on that impact the game way more."

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-making-clear-safeties-no-longer-worth-the-money-why-leagues-view-on-position-has-changed-in-recent-years/

[Dablitzkrieg]

Given the newer shift to 2 high, it's a lot easier to cover imo.  Plus for the Bills, they have one of the best to squeeze as much out of safeties in McD

[0017]

Good safeties, Bad safeties, we still can’t stop Mahomes, spend the money on offense and out-score everyone. 
 

 

Edited March 8 by 0017

[SoonerBillsFan]

20 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

NFL making clear safeties no longer worth the money: Why league's view on position has changed in recent years
 

Just like the running back market has cratered in recent years, the safety position has done something similar. There are some safeties worth paying, like a Derwin James or Antoine Winfield Jr. or Kyle Hamilton in a few years.
 

But more than $103 million across the league has been saved in 2024 cash salary at the safety position, according to Over The Cap. That's the most by far of any position group, outpacing the cornerback salary shed by early $40 million.

 

"There's so much opportunity to overcome physical talent with high level intellect and intangibles. So you don't have to overspend to get production," one NFL personnel executive told CBS Sports. "You can draft these guys Day 3 or put low free-agency resources into them and get production back if they are smart."

 

Said another personnel executive: "It's essentially a similar but not equivalent argument to running backs. So many teams are playing with third-to-fifth-round picks at the position and doing just fine. There are other areas of your team to spend on that impact the game way more."

 

https://www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-making-clear-safeties-no-longer-worth-the-money-why-leagues-view-on-position-has-changed-in-recent-years/

Yep

[QCity]

45 minutes ago, Big Blitz said:

"There's so much opportunity to overcome physical talent with high level intellect and intangibles. So you don't have to overspend to get production," one NFL personnel executive told CBS Sports. "You can draft these guys Day 3 or put low free-agency resources into them and get production back if they are smart."

 

Said another personnel executive: "It's essentially a similar but not equivalent argument to running backs. So many teams are playing with third-to-fifth-round picks at the position and doing just fine. There are other areas of your team to spend on that impact the game way more."

 

 

My feelings exactly.

[BuffaloBillyG]

 

Quandre Diggs sees the writing on the wall😂😂

[Saxum]

Poyer and Hyde were unusual, extraordinary pair of safeties who together were able to bring to Bills value other safeties could not.  If  you are not going to get that value best to spend more of the money elsewhere and spend less on safeties.

[BuffaloBill]

The high salaries commanded by top QB’s are creating these dynamics.  I would guess that the WR market is also due for a downstep given more good ones seem to be emerging from college.

[MJS]

Not really. Safeties traditionally have been one of the lesser paid positions. There were a couple years recently where a few of them got way overpaid.

 

The difference between safeties and running backs is that running backs have a very short shelf life.

[SoCal Deek]

I’m not the least bit surprised. As offenses focus more and more on the passing game it only stands to reason that safeties, who’ve become more one dimensional focusing less and less on run stuffing, would be de-valued. 

[FireChans]

15 minutes ago, MJS said:

Not really. Safeties traditionally have been one of the lesser paid positions. There were a couple years recently where a few of them got way overpaid.

 

The difference between safeties and running backs is that running backs have a very short shelf life.

Correct. Jamal Adams was way over drafted in 2017 because his position wasn’t that valuable and many folks said so at the time. 
 

There’s nothing new about it. lol

[nedboy7]

13 hours ago, 0017 said:

Good safeties, Bad safeties, we still can’t stop Mahomes, spend the money on offense and out-score everyone. 
 

 

Got to win some of those 17 games before you get to KC though. 

[Bills!Win!]

I can easily think back to all of the great safeties of the past 20 years. John Lynch, Rodney Harrison, Bob Sanders, Brian Dawkins, Darren Sharper, Rod Woodson, Ed Reed, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Troy Polamalu 

 

There has been a severe drop off in elite safety play the last 5-10 years 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

3 minutes ago, Bills!Win! said:

I can easily think back to all of the great safeties of the past 20 years. John Lynch, Rodney Harrison, Bob Sanders, Brian Dawkins, Darren Sharper, Rod Woodson, Ed Reed, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Troy Polamalu 

 

There has been a severe drop off in elite safety play the last 5-10 years 

A lot of those guys probably play LB today.

[Man with No Name]

26 minutes ago, Bills!Win! said:

I can easily think back to all of the great safeties of the past 20 years. John Lynch, Rodney Harrison, Bob Sanders, Brian Dawkins, Darren Sharper, Rod Woodson, Ed Reed, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Troy Polamalu 

 

There has been a severe drop off in elite safety play the last 5-10 years 

I probably watched Bob Sanders more than the others, so I am biased. When that guy was on, he was as big of a difference maker as any defensive player I have ever watched. He was probably only ON like that for a grand total of around 20 games. Won them a super bowl though. 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBill said:

The high salaries commanded by top QB’s are creating these dynamics.  I would guess that the WR market is also due for a downstep given more good ones seem to be emerging from college.

 

Well the challenge with WR, is much like QB - the best ones never touch free agency.  

 

Tons of good players come from the draft - but there are often misses there too.  And once they hit 4 years they want that payday.  

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

36 minutes ago, Bills!Win! said:

I can easily think back to all of the great safeties of the past 20 years. John Lynch, Rodney Harrison, Bob Sanders, Brian Dawkins, Darren Sharper, Rod Woodson, Ed Reed, Kam Chancellor, Earl Thomas, Troy Polamalu 

 

There has been a severe drop off in elite safety play the last 5-10 years 

 

Eh there's a fair number of good ones.  Plus the older players can hang around at the position a bit longer.  In the younger group you have bates, hamilton, winfield, holland, hufunga.  In the older group its guys like simmons, mathieu, minkah, budda, derwin, etc. 

[Paup 1995MVP]

8 hours ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Eh there's a fair number of good ones.  Plus the older players can hang around at the position a bit longer.  In the younger group you have bates, hamilton, winfield, holland, hufunga.  In the older group its guys like simmons, mathieu, minkah, budda, derwin, etc. 

Those guys are good players, but not overly special.  Except for probably Hamilton.  The guys in the post you responded to were all HOF or border line HOF players.  The game has changed where big hits are not what safety's do anymore.  They basically are zone corners covering the deep part of the field.  Defense has basically become a D Line and 7 guys between 190-225 pounds running around trying to be disruptive.  They all seem pretty interchangeable except for a few special guys who can play boundary corner and cover the games best WR's one on one.  The perfect example of that was the  Cowboys defense.  That did not work out so well against the Bills, or the Packers in the playoffs.

 

Think about this.  The Bills play little Taron Johnson as a hybrid LB at times.  That would never have happened years ago.  Very interesting.