Who Would You Trade Up For, And How Far Would You Go Up To Get Them?

[hmsmystic]

I really think with cap situation and our obvious need to stockpile cheap talent, trading up in the draft (again) would be a huge mistake.  If we had held on to the last couple of 4th round picks who knows if some receiver, linebacker or db depth would have prevented the performance gaps in those areas?

Edited March 4 by hmsmystic

[transplantbillsfan]

2 things:

 

1) There is NO WAY we are trading up into the top 10 this year!!! This team is too CAP strapped and needs to get AT LEAST 4 or 5 major contributors long term out of this draft.

 

2) There is NO WAY we are using ALL 10 of our draft picks!!! Beane will 100% be making deals on our draft days. That said, anything more than a move into the late teens is too expensive. Right now I think we only trade up for 2 players: Brian Thomas Jr or Adonai Mitchell. No way Nabers or Odunze fall to the late teens. Otherwise stay in place and get Worthy/Legette/McConkey/Coleman or whoever McBeane decides on.

[BADOLBILZ]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Me personally? I wouldn't. Because I like Legette a lot and while I understand the risks of 1 year production and age I'd be willing to stand pat and take him. 

 

I have started on some of the simulators looking at how high I'd be willing to go for Thomas. He is my WR5 with a borderline 1st round grade. But acknowledging that I am higher than the consensus on Legette if I take him off my board for a moment there is now a little gap between Thomas and the gaggle of 2nd round grades. I'd make a phone call to Seattle at #16. I think Jacksonville is the crunch spot for Thomas, Seattle is a team I think would be willing to move back unless one of the 3 stud edge guys is still there (they are likely looking at the interior of both lines in that scenario IMO). I'd offer my 2nd in 2024 and my 2025 2nd too. 

 

I wouldn't worry about Worthy with the Jags. Baulke's history is he likes big. Don't think Worthy will be for them. Dallas much more in play.

 

 

Yeah I'm not really inclined to trade up for anyone either.    The Bills need to begin a youth movement.   Ideally they get 3 WR and 3 OL from this draft.   Because that's the strength of this draft and that's how you should draft.   And hopefully they can also address the DL along the way and find a couple values at other positions.    Using draft capital to move up compromises that strategy.   The idea that they can't roster 10 draft picks any longer is over now that the cap limitations have set in.   And using next years picks is not what I want to see either.

 

 

[philholbroo]

nabers if trading big, thomas jr if smaller trade. 

How about trade back? Maybe Keon then

[Alphadawg7]

14 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

No way.

 

If 7 guys go, sure. But if even one of Thomas, Worthy, Mitchell, or Legette are there - you take them. There's a drop off after that in my eyes between what we're looking for and who we interviewed for the job.

 

Obviously, if 6 WRs are taken before our pick then it is certainly the big 3 of Harrison, Odunze, and Nabers and then I think it is fair to say its most likely Thomas, Mitchell and probably Worthy after they all lit the combine up.  

 

As for your list of guys we must take at 28 if even one of them is there...I don't share that opinion with either Worthy or Legette at 28.  Worthy screams combine overdraft and likely disappoints at the next level (in terms of being a WR1) with his very slim frame.  I just can't see him as a WR1 with a heavy target load and holding up at the next level.  

 

Personally, I am not taking Legette at 28 either as IMHO he won't be the BPA at 28 no matter how the board realistically falls.  While he had a stellar combine for physical measurements, it doesn't change his weaknesses are poor footwork, lack of short area acceleration and burst, and is more of a strider to get up to speed.  Like if I was to write a weakness section for Gabe Davis, it would say the same things.  

 

The only ones on your list I would take at 28 are Thomas and Mitchell, but again, this was about 6 WR's already being gone, and that would mean these two are not on the board.  For the record, if one of these two are, Beane runs to the podium IMHO.   

 

So at 28, the guys after the first 6 are off the board start grading a lot closer to each other and will greatly vary from board to board the order.  You have guys like McConkey, Legette, Franklin, Pearsall, Coleman, etc.  Personally, I would take McConkey if both Mitchell and Thomas are gone, but who should go next will vary greatly based on who you are talking to.  

 

This is where maybe there are 2, 3, maybe even 5 guys Beane likes at WR still here and why I could see him maybe making a small trade back, say within 10 spots or so and adding another third round pick and still getting a guy he wants.  

 

What I do know, is that Beane will not trade back if a guy he covets is there, or if there is only one guy he covets left at 28 and he is getting closer to our pick, I can see Beane going up and getting say a Thomas or Mitchell in a small trade up.  

 

My way too early prediction:  Beane makes a small trade up within 5 spots of our pick to get either Thomas or Mitchell.  

 

Edited March 4 by Alphadawg7

[John from Riverside]

3 hours ago, NoSaint said:

It’s crazy that so many still don’t realize the difference between having the best qb in the league vs the second best in your own division and that’s maybe 10-12 in the league. Matt Ryan isn’t a guy capable of being the leader of that success.

 

the dolphins failures the last couple years weren’t the tyreek trade, for instance 

 

im not pounding the table to make the move but if it’s netting a truly elite player im not complaining about it either 

Sounds irresponsible not to try your best to win one when you put it like that

Who is to say that that’s trying your best
 

Football is a team sport. The best thing to do is to make your team overall the best not one specific position, especially not in a year when there are so many good options, wide receiver.

 

For instance, I have no idea where Legget is going to go, but he is a much closer to 28 than he is odunzi

 

If you improve the position, and I think Legette would be an improvement over Gabe Davis, you still have those other pics to address other needs

 

It’s not gonna be any easier to get under this salary cap year to year we have to start getting younger at key positions on cost controlled contracts

[Buffalo03]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Multiple of those guys will be there at 28, so why would you trade up?  

If there happens to be a run of 3 straight WRs or something, you may want to try to leapfrog some teams to make sure you get your guy

[BobbyC81]

Rome Odunze.   Move into top 10.    A guy who not only participates in all of the combine activities, while most of his colleagues opt out, then redoes a drill multiple times by himself because he knows he can do better, needs to be on the Buffalo Bills.

[Thurman#1]

20 hours ago, H2o said:

The Combine has been fun to watch this year because of the performances by those at our greatest position of need, WR. From the 40's, to the drills, to the tape we have already seen on most of these guys, this is the year we can truly get a difference maker to go with Diggs. 

 

The way the draft is going to shake out hinges on how teams view these QB's. That's usually the case, but these year even more so I believe. The first 13 picks are where the most QB needy teams are. In those picks you have 8 teams potentially in the market for a QB. Chicago, Washington, New England, Atlanta, Minnesota, Denver, and Las Vegas. The NY Giants could possibly go QB if they have soured on Danny Dimes and want to groom a guy for a season behind him. There was also talk of the Jets looking at QB's. Then you still have teams like Pittsburgh, Seattle, and Tampa who could be in the QB market come the draft. A few of these teams are likely to fill their need for a QB in FA or via trade with Mayfield, Cousins, Fields, or Wilson. How the QB situation plays out will have a huge impact on the top 13 picks. 

 

Even with the talent pool there are still tiers to this WR class. It is extremely deep though. It's pretty much Harrison, Nabers, and Odunze followed by the rest. I think all three of those guys are going to be stars in this league. Some people say that Nabers may end up being the 1st WR off of the board and not MHJ. Either way, those two with Odunze are the cream of the crop. Even though two of those guys did nothing at the Combine, I have seen enough game film to know what they are. The next tier are all extremely talented, but they have more question marks. Say the draft pans out like the below scenario. Would you be willing to pay the cost to move up from #28 and how far would you go?

 

1. Chicago - Caleb Williams 

2. Washington - Drake Maye

3. New England - Jayden Daniels

4. Arizona - Marvin Harrison Jr.

5. LA Chargers - Brock Bowers

6. NY Giants 

7. Tennessee 

8. Atlanta

9. Chicago 

10. NY Jets

11. Minnesota 

12. Denver 

13. Las Vegas

 

 

I guess a lot of depends on where you feel this team is at overall. And to move up into the top 10, it's gonna cost you. Probably #28, our 2024 2nd, possibly another 2024 pick, 2025's 1st, and a 2025 3rd or 4th as well. Would you call Schoen and pay the price to get Nabers (or Odunze depending on your preference)? Would you wait and see how 6, 7, and 8 play out then hit up Chicago?

 

Me personally, I seriously consider making the move for Nabers. He, Diggs, Kincaid, Cook, and Shakir out there with Josh slinging to rock around? 

 

 

In all seriousness though, who could the defense key on that would stop this offense then? Imo, at least 2 of the 5 would always be open. We'd have the best offense in the NFL. 

 

What would you do? Move up for someone? Stay at #28 and see how the draft plays out? Who is your guy and what would you be willing to do to get him?

 

 

 

No thanks. Not even close.

 

There's no steep drop-off after the top three this year. There's a drop-off, but it's small. Definitely not worth giving up 1st or 2nd day picks.

 

If one of the top three fell to 22 or so, I'd start to be interested. But that seems wildly unlikely.

 

 

4 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

Who is to say that that’s trying your best
 

Football is a team sport. The best thing to do is to make your team overall the best not one specific position, especially not in a year when there are so many good options, wide receiver.

 

For instance, I have no idea where Legget is going to go, but he is a much closer to 28 than he is odunzi

 

If you improve the position, and I think Legette would be an improvement over Gabe Davis, you still have those other pics to address other needs

 

It’s not gonna be any easier to get under this salary cap year to year we have to start getting younger at key positions on cost controlled contracts

 

Yes. Exactly this. Yes.

 

Make the team overall better.

[Thurman#1]

9 hours ago, NoSaint said:

or is it Julio Jones vibes? 
 

 

 

 

The Julio Jones trade didn't work out. It was a lot better than the trade up for the pick that brought us Watkins, but not successful.

 

Jones was a terrific player but the idea was that the only way you trade away that much value is if he's the last piece to bring a championship.

 

He wasn't.

 

They'd gone 13-3 the year before they traded up for Julio. After that, it was 10-6, 13-3, 4-12, 6-10, 8-8, 11-5, 10-6, 7-9, 7-9, 4-12, 7-10, 7-10, and 7-10.

 

If they had beaten the Pats in that SB, there would have been a legit argument that that trade worked out. But they didn't. And part of the reason they didn't win that SB was that they were so infatuated with the passing game that they threw away the trophy with bad time management by not running.

 

 

[MiracleAtRich1393]

4 hours ago, BobbyC81 said:

Rome Odunze.   Move into top 10.    A guy who not only participates in all of the combine activities, while most of his colleagues opt out, then redoes a drill multiple times by himself because he knows he can do better, needs to be on the Buffalo Bills.

I'm getting shades of the Kaiir notebook here...

[SoonerBillsFan]

If I'm Josh Allen watching the draft and a run starts on WR's, I'm blowing up beanes phone.

 

Enough of the BS, get this man top end talent to throw to.

[Charles Romes]

If they give up a 2nd to get Thomas I would not think they are crazy 

[Brian Higgins hair]

Trade up for no one.

I think we learned that lesson with Sammy Watkins. 

[Gregg]

Beane has shown he will trade up to get a player he wants (Allen being the best one) but it really depends on how the draft board falls. I would love for the Bills to get MHJ but there is no chance of that happening. If the top 3 picks go QB which the draft "experts" predict then MHJ will be a Cardinal at #4.

[TBBills Fan]

11 hours ago, Captain Hindsight said:

Go back to sleep and report back

I tried!  It took me to a different dream where me and a group were getting ready to go to Japan and I was worried because I couldn't find my pot!

[H2o]

3 hours ago, Thurman#1 said:

 

 

The Julio Jones trade didn't work out. It was a lot better than the trade up for the pick that brought us Watkins, but not successful.

 

Jones was a terrific player but the idea was that the only way you trade away that much value is if he's the last piece to bring a championship.

 

He wasn't.

 

They'd gone 13-3 the year before they traded up for Julio. After that, it was 10-6, 13-3, 4-12, 6-10, 8-8, 11-5, 10-6, 7-9, 7-9, 4-12, 7-10, 7-10, and 7-10.

 

If they had beaten the Pats in that SB, there would have been a legit argument that that trade worked out. But they didn't. And part of the reason they didn't win that SB was that they were so infatuated with the passing game that they threw away the trophy with bad time management by not running.

 

 

And who was the OC at the time? The same coach who went away from McCaffrey for over an entire quarter of game action in this most recent SB, Kyle Shanahan. 

10 hours ago, philholbroo said:

nabers if trading big, thomas jr if smaller trade. 

How about trade back? Maybe Keon then

That's a no go for me. I don't want any parts of Keon Coleman. 

[H2o]

1 hour ago, Brian Higgins hair said:

Trade up for no one.

I think we learned that lesson with Sammy Watkins. 

Just because that single trade didn't work out for us, doesn't mean you can label all trades based off of that. Watkins never live up to his draft position, but that doesn't mean the next guy won't. It's a risk whether you stay put and pick a guy or you swing for the fences on someone else. Swinging for the fences may cost you a little more, you may be putting a little more into it, but you can still strike out either way. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 hours ago, Charles Romes said:

If they give up a 2nd to get Thomas I would not think they are crazy 

Depending on how far the move they can pull it off for less than a 2nd.  

[John from Riverside]

8 hours ago, Buffalo03 said:

If there happens to be a run of 3 straight WRs or something, you may want to try to leapfrog some teams to make sure you get your guy

Hopefully the bills are not thinking this way they better be more than one guy
 

This happened last year there was a run on wide receivers and Buffalo ended up taking Dalton now I’m not advocating for another tight end, but the idea I’m having more than one guy on your board is still sound

11 hours ago, mathja said:

This is like the Eric Moulds draft. 

I’m gonna say that it’s better than that draft you have almost can’t miss guys at the beginning of it and it’s such quality that you’re still going to be able to get good players at the end of the first round and the second