What exactly is Khalil Shakir?

[NewEra]

6 minutes ago, babulator said:

Im not sure this is correct, looks like Cowboys Dolphins and Raiders D led the league in scoring last year. Also, no one is making the case of a bad D, and balance is good as well, but to deny that we have over invested in underperforming defensive picks and signee's and left JA woefully under armed is not an argument I'd be making. We can agree to disagree though, I prefer an offensive juggernaut that can score when they need to, as opposed to relying on my D to make stop after stop. It's the McDermott approach vs the Reid approach really. O > D

I’m pretty sure it’s correct…..

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/opp.htm
 

who’s denying anything…..please don’t put words in my mouth.  I never commented on that once.  You said “defense is not the way” when it’s a fact that it’s a big part of being a championship contender.  It’s not a one or the other.  It’s a both.  You need both.  
 

yes, we’ve botched some picks.  We’ve also suffered several massive injuries.  If we had stayed healthy, your narrative may have been different.  But unfortunately our huge defensive investments have gotten hurt.  Miller, big bucks.  Tre, big bucks.  Milano, big bucks.  Hyde, big bucks for a S.  Daquan, pretty big bucks for a 1T.  The way the roster was built was championship caliber.  It was good enough to win a SB minus key injuries.  

[TheBrownBear]

19 minutes ago, babulator said:

Im not sure this is correct, looks like Cowboys Dolphins and Raiders D led the league in scoring last year.

No. NewEra's correct.  Top 3 were Baltimore, KC, Buffalo, followed by SF 

[babulator]

4 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’m pretty sure it’s correct…..

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/opp.htm

https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/defense/scoring/2023/reg/all

 

Still Looks like Dolphins, Raiders, Cowboys.

6 minutes ago, NewEra said:

You said “defense is not the way” when it’s a fact that it’s a big part of being a championship contender.  It’s not a one or the other.  It’s a both.  You need both.

While you don't want a bad team or defense obviously, Offense wins championships. The last umpteen Lombardi winners prove that.

[major]

He be a WR on dee Buffalo bills (say it in Jamaican voice for effect)

[Ethan in Cleveland]

7 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

I will just point out that Beasley was the #2 target getter as the #3 slot guy and people loved that.  So is that what we want here?  I think people want 2 guys with 1400 yards on the outside but its hard for me to see that happening.

Exactly! The second outside WR should be the fourth in targets behind Diggs, the slot WR, and then the TE position.  He should have the highest TD/rec and Yds/rec rate.  He should be your explosion guy. Not a high volume catch guy.  When Davis was at his best that is what he was.  I think the KC playoff game changed the philosophy at OBD.  They decided that Davis could be a true WR1a and he just is not. He doesn't run all the routes, he doesn't run his routes well, and his hands were suspect.  

Let Shakir be Beasley 2.0.  Between him and Kincaid they can get 125-140 catches playing out of the slot.  

Draft your WR#2 this year.  Let him play opposite Diggs and enjoy single coverage his entire rookie year.  Groom him to be WR1 in a year or two.  

[NewEra]

8 minutes ago, babulator said:

https://www.nfl.com/stats/team-stats/defense/scoring/2023/reg/all

 

Still Looks like Dolphins, Raiders, Cowboys.

While you don't want a bad team or defense obviously, Offense wins championships. The last umpteen Lombardi winners prove that.

Not sure wth you’re talking about.  I’m talking about the 3 teams that held their opponents to the least amount of points…..that’s scoring defense. That’s what matters.  Not whatever ridiculous stats you’re talking about.  
 

Umpteen is equal to what? 5 years?  Super Bowl score 13-3 in 2019.  
 

KC won a SB with a WR2 playing WR1 along with a bunch of WR5’s.  A healthy balance of O and D is needed.  Our roster had that. Too bad our defense got broken and we were without our WR2.  Sherfields drops may have been caught had he have been there
 

 

[Dr. Who]

27 minutes ago, NewEra said:

I’m pretty sure it’s correct…..

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/years/2023/opp.htm
 

who’s denying anything…..please don’t put words in my mouth.  I never commented on that once.  You said “defense is not the way” when it’s a fact that it’s a big part of being a championship contender.  It’s not a one or the other.  It’s a both.  You need both.  
 

yes, we’ve botched some picks.  We’ve also suffered several massive injuries.  If we had stayed healthy, your narrative may have been different.  But unfortunately our huge defensive investments have gotten hurt.  Miller, big bucks.  Tre, big bucks.  Milano, big bucks.  Hyde, big bucks for a S.  Daquan, pretty big bucks for a 1T.  The way the roster was built was championship caliber.  It was good enough to win a SB minus key injuries.  

I completely agree. I don't guess you're a Sabres' fan, but it reminds me of the year Carolina won the Cup. Sabres got hit with devastating injuries on D, or I believe it would have been their year. I'm not arguing for ignoring D. No team can afford to do that, but I definitely want to tilt towards WR, and given the depth

of this draft, I am willing to gamble more than ordinary to make sure we come away with 2 quality WRs. 

[babulator]

Just now, NewEra said:

Not sure wth you’re talking about.  I’m talking about the 3 teams that held their opponents to the least amount of points…..that’s scoring defense. That’s what matters.  Not whatever ridiculous stats you’re talking about.  

You said the the tops 3 scoring defenses. Just pulling the stats you mentioned, I didn't want to put words in your mouth. Also, 5 years is more than Zero last I checked, and we could look beyond that and more. Typically it's the offense that scores the winning points in Superbowls of recent memory. KC doesn't win without Mahomes or Kelce, they have won with sub par defense though. Clearly you're getting upset, so I'll bid you adieu on that note. Point stands. O > D. Offense is the way of the modern NFL, no matter how upset or how many WR1, WR2 scenarios you make up in your head.

[Doc Brown]

6 hours ago, babulator said:

You said the the tops 3 scoring defenses. Just pulling the stats you mentioned, I didn't want to put words in your mouth. Also, 5 years is more than Zero last I checked, and we could look beyond that and more. Typically it's the offense that scores the winning points in Superbowls of recent memory. KC doesn't win without Mahomes or Kelce, they have won with sub par defense though. Clearly you're getting upset, so I'll bid you adieu on that note. Point stands. O > D. Offense is the way of the modern NFL, no matter how upset or how many WR1, WR2 scenarios you make up in your head.

If you look just at the Super Bowl winners PPG on offense and defense since the merger there really isn't any recognizable pattern besides it's rare that a team can win it without both units ranking in the top half of the league.  The only conclusion I can draw from this is you should try and build as balanced of team as possible.  Period.

 

 

[babulator]

2 hours ago, Doc Brown said:

If you look just at the Super Bowl winners PPG on offense and defense since the merger there really isn't any recognizable pattern besides it's rare that a team can win it without both units ranking in the top half of the league.  The only conclusion I can draw from this is you should try and build as balanced of team as possible.  Period.

 

 

 

https://jaydpauley.medium.com/analysis-of-the-offensive-and-defensive-ranks-for-super-bowl-champions-2dbb354ebb60

 

The written article in which this chart was pulled from reached the same conclusion as me (see below).

 

"2017-present, an era of offense

We are currently in an era where offense wins championships. All six of the last six Super Bowl champions had an offense ranked higher than defense, and that gap between rankings has increased in each of the last three years with the 2020 Buccaneers (offense +5 over defense), 2021 Rams (+8) and culminating with the 2022 Chiefs who were ranked #1 on offense and # 16 on defense. The average offense is ranked almost 6 spots higher than the average defense for a Super Bowl winner since 2017 (Offense 3.8, Defense 9.5). Five of the six last winners had a top 5 offense (2017 Eagles 3rd, 2018 Patriots 4th, 2019 Chiefs 5th, 2020 Bucs 3rd, and the 2022 Chiefs 1st). The only team not in the top five were the 2021 Rams, but their offense (7th) was still ranked 8 spots ahead of their defense."

 

Offense wins championships. Period. 😝

Edited March 3 by babulator

[GunnerBill]

16 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Shakir isn't nearly as snappy a route runner as Beasley was in his prime. Maybe he will develop into that caliber of safety net but right now he is more of a role player IMO.

 

That being said the role he plays is extremely valuable. Strong hands and body control at the catch point, instinctive and deceptively fast with the ball in his hands. We haven't had a player like him in the Josh Allen era. If he is the 3rd or 4th pass catcher on the depth chart we are in excellent shape.

 

Agree. He is better after the catch than Beasley though. Which was always the appeal of Shakir in the draft. He didn't really run routes or play in anything approaching a pro offense at Boise but when you got the ball in his hands he could make things happen. 

 

His route running has already come on leaps and bounds from where he was as a rookie but he doesn't have that same instinctual feel for soft spots in coverage that Beasley had. That was what made Beas an NFL player, without it he'd have been a grocery bagger. But his feel and football smarts were elite.

 

You are right about role player. That is where you want Shakir. Not a feature of your offense. A complimentary piece of it.

Edited March 3 by GunnerBill

[Doc Brown]

21 minutes ago, babulator said:

https://jaydpauley.medium.com/analysis-of-the-offensive-and-defensive-ranks-for-super-bowl-champions-2dbb354ebb60

 

The written article in which this chart was pulled from reached the same conclusion as me (see below).

 

"2017-present, an era of offense

We are currently in an era where offense wins championships. All six of the last six Super Bowl champions had an offense ranked higher than defense, and that gap between rankings has increased in each of the last three years with the 2020 Buccaneers (offense +5 over defense), 2021 Rams (+8) and culminating with the 2022 Chiefs who were ranked #1 on offense and # 16 on defense. The average offense is ranked almost 6 spots higher than the average defense for a Super Bowl winner since 2017 (Offense 3.8, Defense 9.5). Five of the six last winners had a top 5 offense (2017 Eagles 3rd, 2018 Patriots 4th, 2019 Chiefs 5th, 2020 Bucs 3rd, and the 2022 Chiefs 1st). The only team not in the top five were the 2021 Rams, but their offense (7th) was still ranked 8 spots ahead of their defense."

 

Offense wins championships. Period. 😝

That was before the Chiefs said ef that and won it with the #15 ranked offense and the #2 ranked defense.  Trends can change quickly.

[babulator]

1 minute ago, Doc Brown said:

That was before the Chiefs said ef that and won it with the #15 ranked offense and the #2 ranked defense.  Trends can change quickly.

It's been a 5 year growing trend, but even before that the winners still had Top O's. Since the advent of fantasy football there's nothing that will change this trend moving forward. This is what the league wants, they've made every effort to emphasize the offense and minimize defenders ability. Just look @ scoring over the last decade compared to prior years. It's a trend that isn't changing any time soon. O > D in the modern NFL.

[Matt_In_NH]

10 hours ago, babulator said:

Also, no one is making the case of a bad D, and balance is good as well, but to deny that we have over invested in underperforming defensive picks and signee's and left JA woefully under armed is not an argument I'd be making.

How is Josh Allen woefully under armed?   Are there a few teams deeper at WR?  Sure.   If the offense is so under armed how are they ranked high the last four years?  The bills are second in yards and points the last 4 years.  Are you going to argue that is all Josh Allen with woeful weapons?  I am sure you will point to a few teams with two #1 receivers.  Look at what the Chiefs have done, they have next to nothing for offensive weapons outside of Kelce, pretty much nil at receiver and a seventh round RB.  They have invested the vast majority of their draft capital on defense and traded away the best WR in the NFL and then won the last two SB's.  Offensive weapons is not the Bills problem.  

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-team-offense-leaders-last-4-years

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/highest-scoring-teams-in-the-nfl-last-4-years

 

[jwhit34]

This is what I would guess for targets in '24:

 

# passes per game: roughly 35

For 17 games that's 595, call it 600

 

Diggs   160 (same as in '23)

Kincaid 100

WR2       80-90

Shakir    80-90 (call it 170 between WR2 and Shakir)

 

That's 430 to your core WR/TEs

 

Cook 60

Knox  35

WR 4/5/6  50 (3 per game)

Other RB/TEs 25

 

Edited March 3 by jwhit34

[T master]

He is what ever they need him to be a very versatile piece to a very good offense !! And he is also as dependable as Beasley was but with better YAC yards !!

 

Although i loved some Bease and so did Josh !! 

Edited March 3 by T master

[NewEra]

11 hours ago, babulator said:

You said the the tops 3 scoring defenses. Just pulling the stats you mentioned, I didn't want to put words in your mouth. Also, 5 years is more than Zero last I checked, and we could look beyond that and more. Typically it's the offense that scores the winning points in Superbowls of recent memory. KC doesn't win without Mahomes or Kelce, they have won with sub par defense though. Clearly you're getting upset, so I'll bid you adieu on that note. Point stands. O > D. Offense is the way of the modern NFL, no matter how upset or how many WR1, WR2 scenarios you make up in your head.

Yes…..that’s what the term “scoring defense” means. Point given up.  🤦🏻‍♂️ 

 

there’s so much oddity in this poast that i’ll just move on.  You clearly have no clue what you’re talking about.  
 

 

[babulator]

19 minutes ago, NewEra said:

Yes…..that’s what the term “scoring defense” means. Point given up.  🤦🏻‍♂️ 

 

there’s so much oddity in this poast that i’ll just move on.  You clearly have no clue what you’re talking about.  
 

 

When you're wrong and resort to name calling, moving on does seem best.

 

(should have said personal attacks)

Edited March 3 by babulator

[NewEra]

1 minute ago, babulator said:

When you're wrong and resort to name calling, moving on does seem best.

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, Matt_In_NH said:

How is Josh Allen woefully under armed?   Are there a few teams deeper at WR?  Sure.   If the offense is so under armed how are they ranked high the last four years?  The bills are second in yards and points the last 4 years.  Are you going to argue that is all Josh Allen with woeful weapons?  I am sure you will point to a few teams with two #1 receivers.  Look at what the Chiefs have done, they have next to nothing for offensive weapons outside of Kelce, pretty much nil at receiver and a seventh round RB.  They have invested the vast majority of their draft capital on defense and traded away the best WR in the NFL and then won the last two SB's.  Offensive weapons is not the Bills problem.  

 

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/nfl-team-offense-leaders-last-4-years

https://www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/highest-scoring-teams-in-the-nfl-last-4-years

 

You can't just look at analytics, and numbers. An overall, yes, "intuitive" sense of the whole will yield a better, more truly accurate holistic narrative. The Bills' offense can sputter and struggle for long stretches of a game. It also, this year, had very few big, explosive plays, requiring those long drives with more opportunities for bad plays, mishap, and zebra intervention to derail the offense. And apart from injury, Diggs' lack of second-half production was also directly tied to significant deficiency at WR2. We do not have an X that demands attention. And, as Greg Cosell recently said, the Bills' WR room lacks "juice." Cosell even thinks Diggs is no longer a true #1. 

 

The Chiefs were able to pursue the strategy you appear to want to emulate because they have Andy Reid, one of the finest offensive minds to ever coach the game. Regardless, the strategy of investing the majority of draft capital on defense is something Beane has tried. What he hasn't tried is giving Josh Allen top level WRs with the exception of the trade for Diggs. Whether they are a good team or not, teams fear the Dolphins' offense. It's not because of Tua. We have one of the best QBs on the planet, and we do not have an offense that other teams' fear, even if there is numerical production. And the problem is offensive weapons. We need more alpha playmakers, and Beane should make that the top priority in the draft. Of course, we could also use Chris Jones, so it's true for both sides of the ball. What folks should want, bottom line, is an offense that is not simply adequate, or good, but considerably more than that with Josh Allen.