Matt_In_NH Posted March 1 Posted March 1 Void years is trading future cap for cap today. Kinda like buying furniture that you don’t have to pay for this year but next year you will have to pay the bill. It seems a little irresponsible to me to use this a lot. So with Floyd that ten million dollar new contract with the bills would add to his void money. So if void money is 4m and the new contract is 10m then his hit for 24 would be 14M. Another team would be just the 10M. I thought beane would stop that at some point when the cap catches up for the Covid years but obviously not yet. Our years were rarely used before Covid now some teams use it a lot. Quote
PBF81 Posted March 1 Posted March 1 (edited) 5 hours ago, GunnerBill said: It is certainly a bit the risky swing they took on Miller. It is a bit that they haven't weaned themsleves off the middle class vet backups but also, in fairness to Beane, it is still a bit decisions they had to make to deal with the cap going backwards in covid. It hurt teams like the Bills more than most in that they were trying to do the mega deal with their Quarterback in the same period as navigating a reduced cap and so they weren't as able to do what you normally do which is front load a few contracts of other guys into that window where Josh is on the new deal but his annual hits stay low. Other guys they were extending at that time like Dawkins, Milano and Taron were all deals that pushed the bigger cap hit down the road and here we are at the back end of those contracts with them all on bigger numbers. Had the cap continued to rise at the normal rate in 2020 and 2021 I think you'd be at least $15m or so better off in cap terms from having accounted for some higher numbers on those deals earlier in the piece. That would still leave us over the cap so the first two factors which are entirely of the Bills own making are not diminished. Beane is definitely culpable. But some of the excuse he makes for himself is legit. As for void years generally - it's always been done and always been allowed but normally infrequently. Since the Covid cap restriction there has been an explosion in their use league wide. The Bills are far from alone in this. It will be interesting when we get another year or two out from Covid and those deals signed in 2020 and 2021 start to come off teams' dockets whether the void years trend disappears (or reduces back to what it was) or whether now it is here as a cap management staple it just continues being used at the current rate. I'm not quite sure what that has to do with what I posted, at least not directly, and therefore not sure what your disagreement is. It's a fact that Beane hasn't gotten great value from our/his draft picks. Free Agency with known players/performance is where he's had his success. We can make excuses for him or argue why not, but that doesn't alter those facts. Unfortunately free-agency is substantially more costly than drafting talent, which you know. In many cases as pointed out, sometimes even by you (Creed Humphrey vs. Basham) notably better players have been available when we selected a lesser one. Either way, my culminating point was that Beane hasn't had a single drafted player that has even approached consistently stepping up in the playoffs, particularly against the better teams and tougher competition, unless of course we want to include Davis, and of course Allen otherwise. We've had this discussion. I'm all ears if you'd like to point them out. Edited March 1 by PBF81 Quote
SoCal Deek Posted March 1 Posted March 1 (edited) People can criticize Beane but at least there’s some logic to do what he did. After making it to the AFC Championship game the organization thought they were on the fast track to the Super Bowl. So with a young, franchise QB, he went “all in” and thus somewhat gambled away a few future years. So far, it’s been a gamble that he lost. Edited March 1 by SoCal Deek Quote
GunnerBill Posted March 1 Posted March 1 22 minutes ago, PBF81 said: I'm not quite sure what that has to do with what I posted, at least not directly, and therefore not sure what your disagreement is. It's a fact that Beane hasn't gotten great value from our/his draft picks. Free Agency with known players/performance is where he's had his success. We can make excuses for him or argue why not, but that doesn't alter those facts. Unfortunately free-agency is substantially more costly than drafting talent, which you know. In many cases as pointed out, sometimes even by you (Creed Humphrey vs. Basham) notably better players have been available when we selected a lesser one. Either way, my culminating point was that Beane hasn't had a single drafted player that has even approached consistently stepping up in the playoffs, particularly against the better teams and tougher competition, unless of course we want to include Davis, and of course Allen otherwise. We've had this discussion. I'm all ears if you'd like to point them out. I wasn't seeking to disagree with what you said. Just to add additional context. While Beane is accountable for where we are cap wise he did just get plain unlucky having to extend Josh Allen in the middle of the restricted cap era and that has exacerbated some of the problems. It isn't an explanation for all of it, but when talking about why we are where we are cap wise it is a part of the picture that shouldn't be overlooked. Quote
Matt_In_NH Posted March 1 Posted March 1 28 minutes ago, PBF81 said: It's a fact that Beane hasn't gotten great value from our/his draft picks I would love a detailed explanation of this with comparison to the rest of the league. I believe you have totally unrealistic expectations for draft picks. Quote
PBF81 Posted March 1 Posted March 1 (edited) 24 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: I wasn't seeking to disagree with what you said. Just to add additional context. While Beane is accountable for where we are cap wise he did just get plain unlucky having to extend Josh Allen in the middle of the restricted cap era and that has exacerbated some of the problems. It isn't an explanation for all of it, but when talking about why we are where we are cap wise it is a part of the picture that shouldn't be overlooked. Well, OK, but I was reacting to your disagree emoji. Ergo, I'm confused. I realize that it's a habit for you when you see my posts. 😏 As to what you said there, that's all fine and dandy, but the best way to effectively manage your cap is to mitigate your need to constantly pay top dollar for players in free-agency, and that's done via effective drafting. Common sense there. Again, you didn't address my primary point, which was the fact that other than for Allen, which goes without saying, and perhaps Davis for anyone caring to admit it, and who will now be gone, Beane has not drafted a single player that has even sniffed stepping up on a regular basis in the playoffs. You haven't named anyone that has, so I'll assume that you agree. Playoffs, not the regular season, have been our problem. We "win the regular season" every season now, but we fail miserably in the playoffs and can't beat anyone there but playoff dregs and low seeds. That's a serious problem that is in fact related to our drafting. ... among other issues also. Otherwise, and therefore, Beane isn't exactly free from culpability in creating a cap mess. Edited March 1 by PBF81 Quote
PBF81 Posted March 1 Posted March 1 (edited) 25 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said: I would love a detailed explanation of this with comparison to the rest of the league. I believe you have totally unrealistic expectations for draft picks. Instead, let's do it this way since you know better than I do. Pretty simple, which of Beane's drafted players have even remotely consistently stepped up in the playoffs? Follow-on, so you're effectively insisting that teams like KC, SF, Philly, Baltimore, and maybe a few others, have no players that regularly step up in the playoffs? (Besides Allen of course) That seems to be what you're saying. Now if you're comparing us to Carolina, Washington, etc, that's entirely different. I'm eager to get your answers. Edited March 1 by PBF81 1 Quote
GunnerBill Posted March 1 Posted March 1 6 minutes ago, PBF81 said: Well, OK, but I was reacting to your disagree emoji. Ergo, I'm confused. I realize that it's a habit for you when you see my posts. 😏 As to what you said there, that's all fine and dandy, but the best way to effectively manage your cap is to mitigate your need to constantly pay top dollar for players in free-agency, and that's done via effective drafting. Common sense there. Again, you didn't address my primary point, which was the fact that other than for Allen, which goes without saying, and perhaps Davis for anyone caring to admit it, and who will now be gone, Beane has not drafted a single player that has even sniffed stepping up on a regular basis in the playoffs. You haven't named anyone that has, so I'll assume that you agree. Playoffs, not the regular season, have been our problem. We "win the regular season" every season now, but we fail miserably in the playoffs and can't beat anyone there but playoff dregs and low seeds. That's a serious problem that is in fact related to our drafting. ... among other issues also. Otherwise, and therefore, Beane isn't exactly free from culpability in creating a cap mess. 1. I didn't disagree emoji the post I responded to. I have told you before I don't see you name and instantly click disagree because you are negative. I only click disagree when I genuinely disagree on your takes. 2. The only guy I strongly disagree on is Ed Oliver. I know you don't agree because I saw you argue it elsewhere so no need to rehearse it here, but Ed's playoff numbers are solid. He didn't play well against KC this year, no argument there. But Ed has stood up in the playoffs as a rule. The other person you can make an argument for is Dawson Knox. 39 targets, 28 catches, 19 first downs and 6 touchdowns in 10 games. Neither of them have had a "Gabe Davis vs KC" type single game but both have been consistently good for the Bills in the playoffs. 3. I think generally I have been saying "Beane needs to draft more difference makers" since before you were on this forum. He is good compared to his peers at finding NFL starters in the draft. He is less good at finding the elite level difference makers. When Taron Johnson was voted 2nd team all pro this year he was the first Brandon Beane draft pick not name Josh Allen to make an all pro team. That is a problem. 4. I at no point have sought to excuse Beane from culpability for our cap situation and my posts are very clear on that (although I wouldn't describe it as a mess necessarily, think that overplays it... but we definitely have a cap crunch that is in part of his own making). All I did was add the context of around VOID YEARS which was, after all, what this thread is actually about. 1 1 Quote
Matt_In_NH Posted March 1 Posted March 1 (edited) 58 minutes ago, PBF81 said: Instead, let's do it this way since you know better than I do. Pretty simple, which of Beane's drafted players have even remotely consistently stepped up in the playoffs? Follow-on, so you're effectively insisting that teams like KC, SF, Philly, Baltimore, and maybe a few others, have no players that regularly step up in the playoffs? (Besides Allen of course) That seems to be what you're saying. Now if you're comparing us to Carolina, Washington, etc, that's entirely different. I'm eager to get your answers. Josh Allen, Dawson Knox Dalton Kincaid Cyrus Torrence but minimizing picks to “steps up in the playoffs” is a little unfair with limited sample size. But let’s list the teams with playoff wins the last 4 years: chiefs and bills, end of list. Now let’s see if you can answer the question with actual data and comparisons to other gms. Instead of making blanket statements and calling it a fact. Edited March 1 by Matt_In_NH 1 Quote
Nephilim17 Posted March 1 Posted March 1 Question with an example please: If a void year has a $3 million cap hit an the player signs with the same team for $7 million for one year, that player is technically earning $10 million ($3 million void year bonus money plus $7 million new money) for that year, right? But if that player signs with a new team for $10 million, he still gets the $3 million void-year money from his old team plus the new $10 million, right? So he's actually getting $13 million that year instead of just the $10 million. If my understanding is correct, the player is richer if he signs with a new team for the same (or relatively close to the same) money. So I think it's in the player's best financial interest not to "settle" for a new contract with void-year money if another team is going to pay around the same for that new period. Correct? Quote
Bleeding Bills Blue Posted March 1 Posted March 1 2 hours ago, Nephilim17 said: Question with an example please: If a void year has a $3 million cap hit an the player signs with the same team for $7 million for one year, that player is technically earning $10 million ($3 million void year bonus money plus $7 million new money) for that year, right? But if that player signs with a new team for $10 million, he still gets the $3 million void-year money from his old team plus the new $10 million, right? So he's actually getting $13 million that year instead of just the $10 million. If my understanding is correct, the player is richer if he signs with a new team for the same (or relatively close to the same) money. So I think it's in the player's best financial interest not to "settle" for a new contract with void-year money if another team is going to pay around the same for that new period. Correct? Void years are just signing bonus money. You add multiple years to be able to pull more off the cap in the first year, and there are rules around how much you can restructure. So when they sign anywhere... that cash is already theirs. The cap hit of void/bonus stays on the books regardless of where the player signs. Usually these will all trigger in one offseason (3 void years at 1m each would hit the cap the first year the player is gone for 3M), but i think if they sign here then the void years can continue to be spread out but don't quote me on that. Quote
Fleezoid Posted March 1 Posted March 1 Every Bills season I've watched up to this point has been a void year. Quote
PBF81 Posted March 1 Posted March 1 6 hours ago, GunnerBill said: 1. I didn't disagree emoji the post I responded to. I have told you before I don't see you name and instantly click disagree because you are negative. I only click disagree when I genuinely disagree on your takes. You dodged to both of the posts that I made around that time. I'm happy to repost the text if you'd like to point out what the disagreement is. I'm simply confused. 6 hours ago, GunnerBill said: 2. The only guy I strongly disagree on is Ed Oliver. I know you don't agree because I saw you argue it elsewhere so no need to rehearse it here, but Ed's playoff numbers are solid. He didn't play well against KC this year, no argument there. But Ed has stood up in the playoffs as a rule. The other person you can make an argument for is Dawson Knox. 39 targets, 28 catches, 19 first downs and 6 touchdowns in 10 games. Neither of them have had a "Gabe Davis vs KC" type single game but both have been consistently good for the Bills in the playoffs. Well then, let's start with Oliver. You stay good playoff numbers are good, which games specifically did he have good Numbers in by your standard? Let's start there. I pointed out the two against Steelers/Rudolph & Miami/Thompson, so other than those two, which of his other 8 playoff games does he post good numbers, but more relevantly, numbers commensurate with his draft status? 6 hours ago, GunnerBill said: 3. I think generally I have been saying "Beane needs to draft more difference makers" since before you were on this forum. I've been on this forum on & off since it was founded, under being names, that I don't even remember. I've taken long breaks at times. FWIW Quote
GunnerBill Posted March 1 Posted March 1 3 minutes ago, PBF81 said: You dodged to both of the posts that I made around that time. I'm happy to repost the text if you'd like to point out what the disagreement is. I'm simply confused. Well then, let's start with Oliver. You stay good playoff numbers are good, which games specifically did he have good Numbers in by your standard? Let's start there. I pointed out the two against Steelers/Rudolph & Miami/Thompson, so other than those two, which of his other 8 playoff games does he post good numbers, but more relevantly, numbers commensurate with his draft status? I've been on this forum on & off since it was founded, under being names, that I don't even remember. I've taken long breaks at times. FWIW 1. I didn't disagree with the post I was replying to. That I disagreed with other posts in other threads isn't relevant here. 2. The 13 seconds game for a start. He was our best defender by a mile that day. But you disagree. It is fine. 2 sacks, 5 TFL, 8 QB hits, 9 pressures and a pass defensed in 10 playoff games are good numbers for a defensive tackle. Just for comparison.... took Chris Jones 9 playoff starts to log a single TFL and 12 to log a sack. I am not saying Ed Oliver > Chris Jones. I am saying you need to have a proper perspective on his numbers. 3. Fair enough. But don't accuse me of letting Beane off for the lack of elite playmakers through the draft. I have made that point for multiple years. 1 Quote
PBF81 Posted March 1 Posted March 1 57 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: 1. I didn't disagree with the post I was replying to. That I disagreed with other posts in other threads isn't relevant here. 57 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: 7 hours ago, GunnerBill said: 2. The only guy I strongly disagree on is Ed Oliver. I know you don't agree because I saw you argue it elsewhere so no need to rehearse it here, but Ed's playoff numbers are solid. 2. The 13 seconds game for a start. He was our best defender by a mile that day. But you disagree. It is fine. 2 sacks, 5 TFL, 8 QB hits, 9 pressures and a pass defensed in 10 playoff games are good numbers for a defensive tackle. Just for comparison.... took Chris Jones 9 playoff starts to log a single TFL and 12 to log a sack. I am not saying Ed Oliver > Chris Jones. I am saying you need to have a proper perspective on his numbers. I don't disagree. I've consistently made two points through all of my agrumentation. First, that I'm referring to playoff games, NOT regular season games. Anyone can see that our Regular Seasons are fine, it's the playoffs where we can't beat anything but low seeds that's the issue. That's a fact. The highest seed we've ever beaten in the playoffs is the 5th seeded Ravens. Otherwise, the 6th-seeded Pats and the 7th-seeded Fins, Steelers, and Colts. The second thing that I've maintained in this, is that I'm specifically referring to consistent playoff performance. The operative term there is consistency. (in the playoffs) Oliver's career primary playoff numbers as you point out above, are 2.0 Sacks, 5 TFLs, and 8 QB Hits over 10 games. I've already pointed out that 1.0 of those Sacks, 2 of those TFLs, and 6 of those QB Hits were in the two games against Miami with Skylar Thompson, whom we should agree will never be a good much less above-average QB in the NFL, and the Steelers this past postseason with Mason Rudolph at QB and a similar argument there. Taking those numbers against two 7th-seeded playoff teams with crap QBs out of the mix, we're left with 1.0 SAck, 3 TFLs, and 2 QB Hits over 8 other games. I'll concede the Chiefs game, but I have somewhat of an issue in assessing solid play for any defender much less the defense as a whole, when we gave up more yards and 1st-downs in regulation than we did all season long. I also have to say that his solo sack in that game, his only other sack in the playoffs, was a team sack. If you rewatch it, you'll note that Hughes, Addison, and Oliver were all in the backfield on that play, which occurred at our 8 YL, but whereafter the Chiefs scored a TD anyway with Oliver doing nothing to help prevent that. But nonetheless, let's in disagreement include that in Oliver's fantastic playoff games numbers wise. What's left after that is ... 0 Sacks, 1 TFL, and 0 QB Hits in 7 other playoff games. I'll list them for purposes of our discussion. 2019 v. Houston: 0 Sacks, 0 TFLs, 0 QB Hits, 4 comb/assisted tackles 2020 v. Indy: 0, 0, 0 and 2 solo tackles, both tackles on gains of 6 and 3 and with one going for a 1st-Down 2020 v. Balt: 0, 0, 0 with 2 solo and 1 asstd., nothin' special 2020 v. KC: 0, 1, 0 with the TFL being on 1st-and-10 for a loss of 2 on Helaire, with the Chiefs scoring a TD on that possession anyway. 2021 v. NE: 0, 0, 0 with 2 solo tackles, one having been on a gain of 16 yards, the other for a 1-yard gain on a drive on which NE scored a TD. 2022 v. Cincy: 0, 0, 0 with 1 asstd. tackle on a 1-yard run gain on 1st-and-10 2023 v. KC: 0, 0, 0 with 1 asstd. tackle for a 6-yard gain for Pacheco. In order for consistency to occur, presumably there has to be some indication of it for more than 30% of a player's games. Otherwise there is no consistency. So, which of the above games, and per your statement above, are "Ed Oliver's [playoff] numbers solid? Are those 7 games numbers that you'd expect from a player getting paid what Oliver gets paid? I'm asking seriously. But point out, individually, which games you think he had "solid numbers." Let's start there. My position is clear and remains the same, I don't see any, and posting two great games against two of the sihtiest QBs we've ever faced in the playoffs in franchise history, simply doesn't do a whole lot for me in considering that he's consistent, much less anything better than average, in the playoffs. Nor does a single good game otherwise, regardless of who the opponent is. 57 minutes ago, GunnerBill said: 3. Fair enough. But don't accuse me of letting Beane off for the lack of elite playmakers through the draft. I have made that point for multiple years. I don't believe that I've accused you of that, I fully know where you stand on that. We've had many a discussion about it. It's clear. I've appreciated your honesty there. Quote
PBF81 Posted March 1 Posted March 1 BTW, don't you also recall all of the complaining that goes on here about Oliver disappearing in our biggest of games? Quote
GunnerBill Posted March 1 Posted March 1 9 minutes ago, PBF81 said: I don't disagree. I've consistently made two points through all of my agrumentation. First, that I'm referring to playoff games, NOT regular season games. Anyone can see that our Regular Seasons are fine, it's the playoffs where we can't beat anything but low seeds that's the issue. That's a fact. The highest seed we've ever beaten in the playoffs is the 5th seeded Ravens. Otherwise, the 6th-seeded Pats and the 7th-seeded Fins, Steelers, and Colts. The second thing that I've maintained in this, is that I'm specifically referring to consistent playoff performance. The operative term there is consistency. (in the playoffs) Oliver's career primary playoff numbers as you point out above, are 2.0 Sacks, 5 TFLs, and 8 QB Hits over 10 games. I've already pointed out that 1.0 of those Sacks, 2 of those TFLs, and 6 of those QB Hits were in the two games against Miami with Skylar Thompson, whom we should agree will never be a good much less above-average QB in the NFL, and the Steelers this past postseason with Mason Rudolph at QB and a similar argument there. Taking those numbers against two 7th-seeded playoff teams with crap QBs out of the mix, we're left with 1.0 SAck, 3 TFLs, and 2 QB Hits over 8 other games. I'll concede the Chiefs game, but I have somewhat of an issue in assessing solid play for any defender much less the defense as a whole, when we gave up more yards and 1st-downs in regulation than we did all season long. I also have to say that his solo sack in that game, his only other sack in the playoffs, was a team sack. If you rewatch it, you'll note that Hughes, Addison, and Oliver were all in the backfield on that play, which occurred at our 8 YL, but whereafter the Chiefs scored a TD anyway with Oliver doing nothing to help prevent that. But nonetheless, let's in disagreement include that in Oliver's fantastic playoff games numbers wise. What's left after that is ... 0 Sacks, 1 TFL, and 0 QB Hits in 7 other playoff games. I'll list them for purposes of our discussion. 2019 v. Houston: 0 Sacks, 0 TFLs, 0 QB Hits, 4 comb/assisted tackles 2020 v. Indy: 0, 0, 0 and 2 solo tackles, both tackles on gains of 6 and 3 and with one going for a 1st-Down 2020 v. Balt: 0, 0, 0 with 2 solo and 1 asstd., nothin' special 2020 v. KC: 0, 1, 0 with the TFL being on 1st-and-10 for a loss of 2 on Helaire, with the Chiefs scoring a TD on that possession anyway. 2021 v. NE: 0, 0, 0 with 2 solo tackles, one having been on a gain of 16 yards, the other for a 1-yard gain on a drive on which NE scored a TD. 2022 v. Cincy: 0, 0, 0 with 1 asstd. tackle on a 1-yard run gain on 1st-and-10 2023 v. KC: 0, 0, 0 with 1 asstd. tackle for a 6-yard gain for Pacheco. In order for consistency to occur, presumably there has to be some indication of it for more than 30% of a player's games. Otherwise there is no consistency. So, which of the above games, and per your statement above, are "Ed Oliver's [playoff] numbers solid? Are those 7 games numbers that you'd expect from a player getting paid what Oliver gets paid? I'm asking seriously. But point out, individually, which games you think he had "solid numbers." Let's start there. My position is clear and remains the same, I don't see any, and posting two great games against two of the sihtiest QBs we've ever faced in the playoffs in franchise history, simply doesn't do a whole lot for me in considering that he's consistent, much less anything better than average, in the playoffs. Nor does a single good game otherwise, regardless of who the opponent is. I don't believe that I've accused you of that, I fully know where you stand on that. We've had many a discussion about it. It's clear. I've appreciated your honesty there. No player dominates every game. That isn't the NFL. You can't cherry pick the games you like and the ones you don't. His playoff numbers are solid. He has played well in the post season for the Bills. End of story. I will tell you when he hasn't played well. I am not disingenuously spouting shite here. When he underperforms as he did against KC this year I will say it. 1 minute ago, PBF81 said: BTW, don't you also recall all of the complaining that goes on here about Oliver disappearing in our biggest of games? Yea. It isn't true. Quote
JoPoy88 Posted March 1 Posted March 1 11 minutes ago, PBF81 said: BTW, don't you also recall all of the complaining that goes on here about Oliver disappearing in our biggest of games? you’ve been here so long and yet still get off on being unreasonable, combative, and wrong for the most part. Proud of you. 1 Quote
Goin Breakdown Posted March 1 Posted March 1 Isn't this how the saints got themselves in trouble. Think I remember hearing this. Quote
stuvian Posted March 1 Posted March 1 I use the term to describe periods of my life spent intoxicated for which memories are fleeting Quote
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