The NFL Draft and the "Experts" Final Mock Draft Picks .

[T master]

Here we are once again the combine is upon us & all the speculation about the players coming out in the draft & which player will go to what team and what each team needs per those experts that have been doing this for most of their adult lives to become known as the "Experts" of the draft .

 

And just about every year i wonder just how many of those picks that the so called experts make actually turn out to be what the experts think they will be ? 

 

The so called experts of which i speak start with the one that has been doing it the longest Mel Kiper which is the veteran of the group, Todd McShay, Daniel Jeremiah, Bucky Brooks & who ever else you all might want to add to this list .

 

I think it would be a awful lot of research to get it right but i don't recall ever seeing a article written on th percentage of hits & misses when it comes to each of the (to narrow it down) just each ones final mock drafts to see if the players 1 go to the team they thought & 2 if they turn out to be as good as each one thinks .

 

I know with our own JA 17 every one said he had a cannon but he wasn't very accurate but like Toby said in his song "How Do You Like Me Now" Josh has turned into one of if not the premier QB's in the league but i can't remember where or at what pick those Experts said he would go and what type of player he would be once in the NFL .

 

It's kind of a slow time of year & i know a lot of Bills & NFL fans have their own mock drafts that they do and they follow these college players much closer than i do so i am looking to see if one of y'all follow this type of thing or like me after the combine & draft is over just go with what ever becomes of it and see how it turns out .

 

Thanks for any input on this i look forward to seeing what those experts say again this year . Lets go Brandon - GO BILLS !!! 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, T master said:

 

I think it would be a awful lot of research to get it right but i don't recall ever seeing a article written on th percentage of hits & misses when it comes to each of the (to narrow it down) just each ones final mock drafts to see if the players 1 go to the team they thought & 2 if they turn out to be as good as each one thinks .

 

 

There is a pretty well respected methodology for grading mocks (although there are multiple ways to do it and you can cut it multiple ways) Fantasy Pros. Here is the link to their grading from last year: https://www.fantasypros.com/nfl/accuracy/mock-drafts.php but I have never seen anything going back and critiquing big boards. 

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, T master said:

Here we are once again the combine is upon us & all the speculation about the players coming out in the draft & which player will go to what team and what each team needs per those experts that have been doing this for most of their adult lives to become known as the "Experts" of the draft .

 

And just about every year i wonder just how many of those picks that the so called experts make actually turn out to be what the experts think they will be ? 

 

The so called experts of which i speak start with the one that has been doing it the longest Mel Kiper which is the veteran of the group, Todd McShay, Daniel Jeremiah, Bucky Brooks & who ever else you all might want to add to this list .

 

I think it would be a awful lot of research to get it right but i don't recall ever seeing a article written on th percentage of hits & misses when it comes to each of the (to narrow it down) just each ones final mock drafts to see if the players 1 go to the team they thought & 2 if they turn out to be as good as each one thinks .

 

I know with our own JA 17 every one said he had a cannon but he wasn't very accurate but like Toby said in his song "How Do You Like Me Now" Josh has turned into one of if not the premier QB's in the league but i can't remember where or at what pick those Experts said he would go and what type of player he would be once in the NFL .

 

It's kind of a slow time of year & i know a lot of Bills & NFL fans have their own mock drafts that they do and they follow these college players much closer than i do so i am looking to see if one of y'all follow this type of thing or like me after the combine & draft is over just go with what ever becomes of it and see how it turns out .

 

Thanks for any input on this i look forward to seeing what those experts say again this year . Lets go Brandon - GO BILLS !!! 

To highlight an example of just how all over the place the "experts" can be one has to look no further than the first one you mentioned: Mel Kiper. The granddaddy of them all, so to speak.

 

He was a HUGE Josh Allen supporter. Loved everything about him coming out and was one of the very few that were in Allen's corner. He was right.

 

Kiper also tried famously to say at one time that he would walk away and retire if Jimmy Clausen didn't turn into a franchise QB. He was wrong. And he lied. 

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

To highlight an example of just how all over the place the "experts" can be one has to look no further than the first one you mentioned: Mel Kiper. The granddaddy of them all, so to speak.

 

He was a HUGE Josh Allen supporter. Loved everything about him coming out and was one of the very few that were in Allen's corner. He was right.

 

Kiper also tried famously to say at one time that he would walk away and retire if Jimmy Clausen didn't turn into a franchise QB. He was wrong. And he lied. 

It is extremely difficult to evaluate college players.  So many variables - level of competition, do they have a lot or very little talent around them, do they have room to grow or are they maxed out physically, what is their work ethic, are they football smart, can any observed deficiencies be “coached up”, do they have any injuries that could hinder them, how much do they really want to play, do they fit the drafting team’s system, are they drafted into a stable system or will coaching changes cause them to not fit new system…

 

Even the best evaluators miss on players, including the scouts employed by NFL teams.  Every draft shows that talent evaluation is not an exact science.  
 

It’s great fun to discuss all of this and have our favorites for whom the Bills should draft, but let’s remember that we can be wrong on some of these guys - recent example is Terrel Bernard.

Edited February 29 by OldTimer1960