NIL deals keeping more players in college now and diluting the draft talent pool?

[BarleyNY]

38 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

The way I see it, however is that everyone's draft boards look different. And the deeper it gets in the draft the more variance there will be.

 

So, say there are those 150 "draftable players" out there. I'm sure there  there is somewhat of a consensus on who the top 50-75 are. 

 

Then you would have teams looking more into specific things. Scheme, positions of need, impressions on any interactions they have had, and even just difference in scouting grades on a team by team basis. So out of that backend 75 players it may involve a pool of 100-150 guys that are draftable to some team but not others. 

 

That would be more like a typical draft. The way I understood it, the NFL as a whole would usually have about 250 or so prospects with a 7th round or better grade on them. This year it’s more like 150. 

[billsfan89]

I don't know if you know this but NFL players can do endorsements too... I get that NIL may give some of the top guys leverage to stay an extra year if they really don't want to go to the team that is likely going to draft them but that's not going to be a consistent situation. Especially given the fact that how violent football is and how volatile it is with injuries and performance I don't see it impacting much if anything. Even without NIL Eli Manning still moaned his way out of San Diego. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

The NFL has its minor league farm system...NIL College football.  

[boyst]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Why? We’re never happy. I remember when people said kids leaving early was going to ruin sports.

They can choose to do that. But the NCAA portal and nil have made the college game pathetic. These athletes getting contracts - eventually it'll be the top 100-150 athletes and livi dune getting lots of money while the small programs get lost and disappear. 

[Ya Digg?]

41 minutes ago, boyst said:

They can choose to do that. But the NCAA portal and nil have made the college game pathetic. These athletes getting contracts - eventually it'll be the top 100-150 athletes and livi dune getting lots of money while the small programs get lost and disappear. 

That’s better than these colleges (while also continuing to increase their tuition), school presidents, and the NCAA getting all of the money and the kids get nothing 

[NORWOODS FOOT]

If you close your eyes - as a fan of the NFL - and pretend the NIL doesn’t exist the only difference you are probably going to see is a better NFL product in the long run. Draftable kids are going to stay longer and be even more refined. They all have to come out eventually. We will see them in the pros. Besides players that would otherwise be drafted high, and decide to stay for some reason, thereby risking their health, I think it will ultimately be a good thing for the vast majority of players. Especially after things get smoothed out with better rules. 

Edited February 29 by NORWOODS FOOT

[boyst]

31 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

That’s better than these colleges (while also continuing to increase their tuition), school presidents, and the NCAA getting all of the money and the kids get nothing 

Education, free meals, free living, tutors and aid to learn, clothes, health management, connections in business/life through boosters and such. And there is still the illegal ***** they got

[Alphadawg7]

I think it’s great and doing exactly what it should do.

[GunnerBill]

On the point about this draft..... it is definitely a stronger class at the top than the last couple. I am at 20 true first round grades. Last year was particularly low with 11 - but generally in recent years I've ended up at about 18. I think it is a good group through rounds 2 and 3 as well. Last year's draft my 100th best grade was a mid to late 4th. I think very conceivable based where I am at so far that my 100th grade could well be a full round higher. 

 

Does it drop off some? Possibly, a bit. I think there are players there in the later rounds but they are older prospects. They are 5th and 6th year guys where the physical potential is maxed out. I don't think there are many guys there you are taking a late flier on and thinking "this kid is raw but I can turn him into something" it is much more "this kid is what he is and his ceiling is a backup / contributor on STs." So I'd describe day 3 as more safe floors than normal, fewer high ceilings than normal. 

 

 

[Magox]

13 hours ago, Big Turk said:

Seems like more and more kids are staying in college instead of declaring early...this year there were only 58 underclassmen who declared for the draft this year. Last year there were 82. In 2019, before the NIL deals were allowed 135 declared...

 

Caleb Williams reportedly made $10 million in endorsement and NIL deals the past 2 years at USC, meaning overall in his first 4 years in the NFL, he will be taking a slight PAYCUT to play(not factoring in endorsement/commercial deals, which could push him over that). Williams will make a little over $38.5 million over the first 4 years if he is selected #1 overall as he is expected to be. If he doesn't get taken 1st overall, every pick beneath that his money starts to dwindle. If he isn't top 5, he will make under $30 million his first 4 seasons total. 

 

This is for the #1 player on most boards...now imagine a player who has a good NIL deal that might only be a 2nd or 3rd round pick but is a huge deal in college where he plays...he could easily make more playing college football than he does in the NFL to start out.  Crazy to think about, but NIL deals could be hurting the talent pool in the draft as more kids decide to stay in college. 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/report-potential-no-1-nfl-draft-pick-caleb-williams-made-approximately-10-million-in-nil-deals-at-usc-164614055.html

 

It all evens out, the players who were going to declare will eventually declare and in many cases they will be a more mature and polished product.  

 

If the rate of declares from underclassmen is stable, then it doesn't matter the same amount of good prospects will be unaffected within a couple years.

[Sweats]

I don't blame them for wanting to stay in college as long as they can if they are making serious cash off NIL deals.......i mean, money is the reason these guys are in this for in the first place.

[Frostbite]

Difference is guarantees. You could have a guy like Caleb make more in his one remaining college year than one year in the NFL but thats just it, he's got one year. Think most will opt to make $30mil+ over 4 years, maybe 5 years.

[SoonerBillsFan]

11 hours ago, boyst said:

They can choose to do that. But the NCAA portal and nil have made the college game pathetic. These athletes getting contracts - eventually it'll be the top 100-150 athletes and livi dune getting lots of money while the small programs get lost and disappear. 

That's the plan.  They want 4 giant conferences.  It's going to get to the point the best pure football will be played at D1-2-3 and NAIA

[Ya Digg?]

11 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

That's the plan.  They want 4 giant conferences.  It's going to get to the point the best pure football will be played at D1-2-3 and NAIA

What does that even mean? Best pure football? 

[SoonerBillsFan]

37 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

What does that even mean? Best pure football? 

They play just to play ball and try to get an education. Not for money.

[Bob Jones]

14 hours ago, boyst said:

NIL is gonna kill the joy of sports. 

It's pretty much why Nick Saban quit coaching. IMHO, NIL money is not good for college sports, not good at all.

[Sweats]

2 minutes ago, Bob Jones said:

It's pretty much why Nick Saban quit coaching. IMHO, NIL money is not good for college sports, not good at all.

 

 

 

Saban knew the jig was up and he could no longer compete for blue chippers, when the NIL and transfer portal came into effect. He no longer held the "market share" and thus, turned Bama into just another college program like everyone else who had to claw and scratch and promote for players across the country. He no longer held the upper hand on other schools, he knew it and he retired.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Frostbite said:

Difference is guarantees. You could have a guy like Caleb make more in his one remaining college year than one year in the NFL but thats just it, he's got one year. Think most will opt to make $30mil+ over 4 years, maybe 5 years.

 

Definitely true for the guys getting 1st, 2nd and 3rd round grades from the advisory committee - but if you have an NIL offer and are getting a day 3 grade from the advisory committee I would imagine it makes the incentive to go back to school, taking that money, and hoping to improve your draft stock in a further year even more attractive than it was before NIL and the money was a factor. 

[SoTier]

Here's an article to better understand NIL:  NIL

 

 

14 hours ago, Big Turk said:

 

But it will be hurting it in perpetuity while NIL deals are allowed, so technically it IS hurting the class every year. It's not like the players staying in this year will enter the draft and then all the other underclassmen in next year's draft won't exhibit the same behavior and enter the draft also.  They will be staying in too.

 

The average length of NFL careers is about 3 years, so the percentage of players from every draft class who actually succeed, much less become long-term starters who make significant money, is tiny.   Many draftees will never make nearly as much in the NFL as they do from capitalizing on NIL while collegians.  This might not be true of first round picks or even most Day 2 picks, but certainly for kids drafted on Day 3.   A lot of Day 3 picks are proverbial "big fish in a small pond" types who aren't going to even make NFL practice squads.

 

12 hours ago, boyst said:

They can choose to do that. But the NCAA portal and nil have made the college game pathetic. These athletes getting contracts - eventually it'll be the top 100-150 athletes and livi dune getting lots of money while the small programs get lost and disappear. 

 

NIL is about the NCAA allowing collegiate athletes the right to earn money off of their images, names or other likenesses, which the NCAA didn't allow until a 2021 court case.   Colleges still cannot pay collegiate athletes for playing sports.   NIL is about individual athletes profiting from their collegiate -- and in some cases, high school -- fame.

[Ya Digg?]

21 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

They play just to play ball and try to get an education. Not for money.

 

11 minutes ago, Bob Jones said:

It's pretty much why Nick Saban quit coaching. IMHO, NIL money is not good for college sports, not good at all.

I don’t know, for me I think these opinions are a bit extreme. Football in particular is weird-the player is always the enemy. Fans root for teams or schools, they never root for players. Think about it just in the Bills who are the enemies? Von and Stef because they got paid and Gabe because he is about to get paid. Most people don’t care about the players at all once they have served their purpose. 
 

it’s the same thing with college football-Nick Saban left because he lost his stranglehold on college football. He could see the playing field was being leveled and he got out (I think the college portal had a big reason for that as well). 
 

Pro football and college football seem to be the only places where people continually root for the giant billionaire owners  and mega billion dollar schools and fight against the people who are making those people all of their money