NIL deals keeping more players in college now and diluting the draft talent pool?

[Big Turk]

Seems like more and more kids are staying in college instead of declaring early...this year there were only 58 underclassmen who declared for the draft this year. Last year there were 82. In 2019, before the NIL deals were allowed 135 declared...

 

Caleb Williams reportedly made $10 million in endorsement and NIL deals the past 2 years at USC, meaning overall in his first 4 years in the NFL, he will be taking a slight PAYCUT to play(not factoring in endorsement/commercial deals, which could push him over that). Williams will make a little over $38.5 million over the first 4 years if he is selected #1 overall as he is expected to be. If he doesn't get taken 1st overall, every pick beneath that his money starts to dwindle. If he isn't top 5, he will make under $30 million his first 4 seasons total. 

 

This is for the #1 player on most boards...now imagine a player who has a good NIL deal that might only be a 2nd or 3rd round pick but is a huge deal in college where he plays...he could easily make more playing college football than he does in the NFL to start out.  Crazy to think about, but NIL deals could be hurting the talent pool in the draft as more kids decide to stay in college. 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/report-potential-no-1-nfl-draft-pick-caleb-williams-made-approximately-10-million-in-nil-deals-at-usc-164614055.html

Edited February 28 by Big Turk

[fergie's ire]

At worst, it would only be hurting the talent pool for one year.  Say, for example, all the eligible Jr.'s stay in school this year.  That would hurt the talent pool this year, but next year they would all be coming out,  PLUS they would have one more year of experience.  There would be fewer one year wonders to tempt GMs and then crash and burn.  Seems that long term it would really help the talent pool....now, as for the quality of their poo, I really couldn't say.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

It’s actually very good for the NFL. Makes players easier to scout plus prepares them better for the pros.

[Mat68]

I dont see that.  The age of some guys is still due to the covid exception for a 5th 6th plus year.  If they got talent they go early as ever.  Mid late guys are using the extra time because they havent flashed yet. 

[Prospector]

1 minute ago, fergie's ire said:

At worst, it would only be hurting the talent pool for one year.  Say, for example, all the eligible Jr.'s stay in school this year.  That would hurt the talent pool this year, but next year they would all be coming out,  PLUS they would have one more year of experience.  There would be fewer one year wonders to tempt GMs and then crash and burn.  Seems that long term it would really help the talent pool....now, as for the quality of their poo, I really couldn't say.

Right... all this does is push some guys back a little, then we will have the same number coming out every year very shortly. Nothing really to see here

[BarleyNY]

12 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Seems like more and more kids are staying in college instead of declaring early...this year there were only 58 underclassmen who declared for the draft this year. Last year there were 82. In 2019, before the NIL deals were allowed 135 declared...

 

Caleb Williams reportedly made $10 million in endorsement and NIL deals the past 2 years at USC, meaning overall in his first 4 years in the NFL, he will be taking a slight PAYCUT to play(not factoring in endorsement/commercial deals, which could push him over that). Williams will make a little over $38.5 million over the first 4 years if he is selected #1 overall as he is expected to be. If he doesn't get taken 1st overall, every pick beneath that his money starts to dwindle. If he isn't top 5, he will make under $30 million his first 4 seasons total. 

 

This is for the #1 player on most boards...now imagine a player who has a good NIL deal that might only be a 2nd or 3rd round pick but is a huge deal in college where he plays...he could easily make more playing college football than he does in the NFL.  Crazy to think about, but NIL deals could be hurting the talent pool in the draft as more kids decide to stay in college. 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/report-potential-no-1-nfl-draft-pick-caleb-williams-made-approximately-10-million-in-nil-deals-at-usc-164614055.html

 

Thanks for the link and thread. I heard that NIL (and to a lesser extent the last of the Covid impact) has diluted this draft class immensely and that there are only about 150 players in this class that would be drafted in a typical year. That means that everyone beyond that is a UDFA level player. The Bills have picks 28, 60, 99, 129, 159, 162, 192, 198, 206 & 246. So as it stands they have 4 valuable picks, 2 picks with borderline draftable player value and 4 picks for priority FAs. Obviously utilizing picks beyond 150 in trade ups, player trades and future year picks would be wise, although there might be less opportunity for that than usual. It's worth keeping in mind the diminished value of those picks when trades happen. 

Edited February 28 by BarleyNY

[Big Turk]

7 minutes ago, fergie's ire said:

At worst, it would only be hurting the talent pool for one year.  Say, for example, all the eligible Jr.'s stay in school this year.  That would hurt the talent pool this year, but next year they would all be coming out,  PLUS they would have one more year of experience.  There would be fewer one year wonders to tempt GMs and then crash and burn.  Seems that long term it would really help the talent pool....now, as for the quality of their poo, I really couldn't say.

 

But it will be hurting it in perpetuity while NIL deals are allowed, so technically it IS hurting the class every year. It's not like the players staying in this year will enter the draft and then all the other underclassmen in next year's draft won't exhibit the same behavior and enter the draft also.  They will be staying in too.

Edited February 28 by Big Turk

[JoPoy88]

If they’re good enough to declare early, and good enough to earn significant NIL $$ while in college, they’ll come out eventually won’t they? (Barring catastrophic injury.)

[Ya Digg?]

Any kid who stays for NIL money who is going to be a top pick is thinking very short sided in my opinion. The sooner you get to your 2nd contract in the NFL the better. Most guys in college won’t make anything near what they will make in the NFL on their first contract. You are also running the risk of getting hurt and hurting your draft stock, which will also end up costing you millions. That’s why the whole Caleb Williams might stay (and every guy before and after him who is projected to go #1) is so utterly laughable-it will never happen

[boyst]

NIL is gonna kill the joy of sports. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

3 minutes ago, boyst said:

NIL is gonna kill the joy of sports. 

Why? We’re never happy. I remember when people said kids leaving early was going to ruin sports.

[fergie's ire]

27 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

 

But it will be hurting it in perpetuity while NIL deals are allowed, so technically it IS hurting the class every year. It's not like the players staying in this year will enter the draft and then all the other underclassmen in next year's draft won't exhibit the same behavior and enter the draft also.  They will be staying in too.

Okay, but just for simple math, let's say that there are 100 eligible underclassmen who come out every year.  If this year they all decide to stay in college, THIS draft pool will be reduced by 100.  If, next year, NIL is abolished and all 100 classmen go pro, then the talent pool is increased by 100 (this year's underclassmen who are then seniors).  However, if all underclassmen stay in college in perpetuity, as you suggest then, yes, there will be 100 fewer underclassmen.  However, there will 100 extra seniors next year (the 100 who stayed back this year)...and then the 100 underclassmen from next year will add to the 2026 draft pool, etc. etc.  You'll have the same number in the pool only they will be seniors instead of underclassmen...so more experience and more tape on them.

[GunnerBill]

I think draft classes are still a bit funky and recovering from Covid eligibility rules. If in two years we are still seeing way less underclassmen declare than before NIL theb we can draw conclusions. But for now there are other factors at play. If I am an underclassman and got a 4th round grade this year from the advisory committee I might be more reluctant because there is a bulk of 5th and 6th year guys Im competing against in that range. Of it sustains into 25 and 26 then let's revisist. 

[Mr. WEO]

54 minutes ago, Big Turk said:

Seems like more and more kids are staying in college instead of declaring early...this year there were only 58 underclassmen who declared for the draft this year. Last year there were 82. In 2019, before the NIL deals were allowed 135 declared...

 

Caleb Williams reportedly made $10 million in endorsement and NIL deals the past 2 years at USC, meaning overall in his first 4 years in the NFL, he will be taking a slight PAYCUT to play(not factoring in endorsement/commercial deals, which could push him over that). Williams will make a little over $38.5 million over the first 4 years if he is selected #1 overall as he is expected to be. If he doesn't get taken 1st overall, every pick beneath that his money starts to dwindle. If he isn't top 5, he will make under $30 million his first 4 seasons total. 

 

This is for the #1 player on most boards...now imagine a player who has a good NIL deal that might only be a 2nd or 3rd round pick but is a huge deal in college where he plays...he could easily make more playing college football than he does in the NFL to start out.  Crazy to think about, but NIL deals could be hurting the talent pool in the draft as more kids decide to stay in college. 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/report-potential-no-1-nfl-draft-pick-caleb-williams-made-approximately-10-million-in-nil-deals-at-usc-164614055.html

 

5 million a year for 2 years is less than 38.5 million over 4.  If my math is correct, that's  not a pay cut.

 

Also, little  chance that a lot of 2nd or 3rd rounders are making millions a year now in college. 

[Process]

Totally guessing here but I feel like the number of day 2 picks making more in NIL money than they will in the NFL is 0 or very close to it.

 

Other than Deion's kid I'm assuming no one else is making anywhere near what Caleb is making. 

[DCOrange]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

Seems like more and more kids are staying in college instead of declaring early...this year there were only 58 underclassmen who declared for the draft this year. Last year there were 82. In 2019, before the NIL deals were allowed 135 declared...

 

Caleb Williams reportedly made $10 million in endorsement and NIL deals the past 2 years at USC, meaning overall in his first 4 years in the NFL, he will be taking a slight PAYCUT to play(not factoring in endorsement/commercial deals, which could push him over that). Williams will make a little over $38.5 million over the first 4 years if he is selected #1 overall as he is expected to be. If he doesn't get taken 1st overall, every pick beneath that his money starts to dwindle. If he isn't top 5, he will make under $30 million his first 4 seasons total. 

 

This is for the #1 player on most boards...now imagine a player who has a good NIL deal that might only be a 2nd or 3rd round pick but is a huge deal in college where he plays...he could easily make more playing college football than he does in the NFL to start out.  Crazy to think about, but NIL deals could be hurting the talent pool in the draft as more kids decide to stay in college. 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/report-potential-no-1-nfl-draft-pick-caleb-williams-made-approximately-10-million-in-nil-deals-at-usc-164614055.html

He made approximately $10 million in total over the last two years, meaning $5 million per year. I would bet anything that number is being rounded up so he probably made about half in college what he'll be making in the NFL on his rookie contract.

 

I think between the NIL, the Covid eligibility stuff, and being able to transfer without sitting out, the college landscape has changed pretty dramatically. You used to see a good amount of kids that would just opt for the NFL Draft because they knew they were being replaced on their college team and didn't want to ride the bench or transfer and sit out a year. Now that kids can transfer and start immediately elsewhere, there aren't as many kids being "forced" to declare for the draft.

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, BarleyNY said:

 

Thanks for the link and thread. I heard that NIL (and to a lesser extent the last of the Covid impact) has diluted this draft class immensely and that there are only about 150 players in this class that would be drafted in a typical year. That means that everyone beyond that is a UDFA level player. The Bills have picks 28, 60, 99, 129, 159, 162, 192, 198, 206 & 246. So as it stands they have 4 valuable picks, 2 picks with borderline draftable player value and 4 picks for priority FAs. Obviously utilizing picks beyond 150 in trade ups, player trades and future year picks would be wise, although there might be less opportunity for that than usual. It's worth keeping in mind the diminished value of those picks when trades happen. 

The way I see it, however is that everyone's draft boards look different. And the deeper it gets in the draft the more variance there will be.

 

So, say there are those 150 "draftable players" out there. I'm sure there  there is somewhat of a consensus on who the top 50-75 are. 

 

Then you would have teams looking more into specific things. Scheme, positions of need, impressions on any interactions they have had, and even just difference in scouting grades on a team by team basis. So out of that backend 75 players it may involve a pool of 100-150 guys that are draftable to some team but not others. 

[Warcodered]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

(not factoring in endorsement/commercial deals, which could push him over that).

and why would we not factor in that?

[mannc]

1 hour ago, Big Turk said:

Seems like more and more kids are staying in college instead of declaring early...this year there were only 58 underclassmen who declared for the draft this year. Last year there were 82. In 2019, before the NIL deals were allowed 135 declared...

 

Caleb Williams reportedly made $10 million in endorsement and NIL deals the past 2 years at USC, meaning overall in his first 4 years in the NFL, he will be taking a slight PAYCUT to play(not factoring in endorsement/commercial deals, which could push him over that). Williams will make a little over $38.5 million over the first 4 years if he is selected #1 overall as he is expected to be. If he doesn't get taken 1st overall, every pick beneath that his money starts to dwindle. If he isn't top 5, he will make under $30 million his first 4 seasons total. 

 

This is for the #1 player on most boards...now imagine a player who has a good NIL deal that might only be a 2nd or 3rd round pick but is a huge deal in college where he plays...he could easily make more playing college football than he does in the NFL to start out.  Crazy to think about, but NIL deals could be hurting the talent pool in the draft as more kids decide to stay in college. 

 

https://sports.yahoo.com/report-potential-no-1-nfl-draft-pick-caleb-williams-made-approximately-10-million-in-nil-deals-at-usc-164614055.html

There may be fewer underclassmen declaring, but that’s just a factor of more good players using their full eligibility, therefore, theoretically, more good seniors in the draft.  I kinda see it as a wash, unless we start seeing a lot of 24 and 25 year olds coming out.  Good topic, though!

[Ya Digg?]

3 minutes ago, Warcodered said:

and why would we not factor in that?

It works against the argument that someone in college would make more than in the NFL (which they don't)