Takeaways from Beane's Combine pressers

[SoonerBillsFan]

Maybe...we offer him a contract extension to play safety?  I mean a ball hawk like that hitting his 30's is a natural progression.

[mrags]

6 hours ago, wettlaufer said:

 

Agree with the JOsh restructure and those cuts as well. Matakevich isn't on the roster. We are still $16M above the cap and we need to sign rookies. More hard decisions need to be made.

Maybe I’m just thinking what that useless gingers cap was last year. Didn’t know he was  a FA. They will get there and they don’t need to make any major cuts. 

[Green Lightning]

22 hours ago, jahnyc said:

Between Beane's presser and Tasker's views on the secondary, I have a feeling that Douglas will be released for cap savings.  I think it will be a mistake, particularly if the Bills think Elam can be a starter at CB.

Why burn a 3rd round pick for a half a season? Stupid. The guy is a started and a ball hawk. 

[GunnerBill]

37 minutes ago, mrags said:

Maybe I’m just thinking what that useless gingers cap was last year. Didn’t know he was  a FA. They will get there and they don’t need to make any major cuts. 

 

Matakevich still exists on the cap but it is void year dead money. 

[mrags]

Just now, GunnerBill said:

 

Matakevich still exists on the cap but it is void year dead money. 

Oh yeah forgot about that. The useless gift that keeps on giving. 

[HappyDays]

7 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

If Beane drafts a WR in the 1st 2 rounds, an FA WR could end up being our 6th best option.

 

A player like Reynolds or Samuel or Mooney being our 3rd or 4th option would be amazing. Why are you afraid of this scenario?

[GASabresIUFan]

44 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

A player like Reynolds or Samuel or Mooney being our 3rd or 4th option would be amazing. Why are you afraid of this scenario?

Because it’s a waste of money.  It’s just another band-aid without solving the long-term need. We’d also get the same performance or better from a high draft pick for less money with more potential upside.  
 

This is Emmanuel Sanders all over again.  He gave us one decent season as the 4th option and then was gone.  
 

The only way to get younger, cheaper and more talented is to draft well. In Beane’s tenure he has never drafted a WR in the first 3 rounds.  Is it any wonder we haven’t developed a WR behind Diggs?  

 

 

Edited February 29 by GASabresIUFan

[HappyDays]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Because it’s a waste of money.  It’s just another band-aid without solving the long-term need. We’d also get the same performance or better from a high draft pick for less money with more potential upside.  
 

This is Emmanuel Sanders all over again.  He gave us one decent season as the 4th option and then was gone.  
 

The only way to get younger, cheaper and more talented is to draft well. In Beane’s tenure he has never drafted a WR in the first 3 rounds.  Is it any wonder we haven’t developed a WR behind Diggs?

 

You seem to think it's a choice between signing a decent WR or drafting one high. I'm saying do both. Solve the problem once and for all and leave no doubt. What if the 1st round pick isn't immediately ready? What if we suffer an injury? I don't understand why we have been scraping out the dregs when it comes to WR depth, but on the DL it's an unspeakable sin to have anything less than the most expensive depth in the league. You really think paying the likes of Tim Settle and Jordan Phillips will be more impactful than say a Curtis Samuel?

[Ya Digg?]

53 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

A player like Reynolds or Samuel or Mooney being our 3rd or 4th option would be amazing. Why are you afraid of this scenario?

Now I am completely basing this off of one play for one and one game for another, but after watching Mooney drop that Hail Mary (against the Browns I believe) and watching Reynolds drop multiple balls in the NFC championship, I don't think I want either of them in Buffalo

[BuffaloRebound]

3 minutes ago, Ya Digg? said:

Now I am completely basing this off of one play for one and one game for another, but after watching Mooney drop that Hail Mary (against the Browns I believe) and watching Reynolds drop multiple balls in the NFC championship, I don't think I want either of them in Buffalo

Agreed.  I’d rather draft one early and sign a vet to a 1 year deal who’s been the dude before like OBJ or Mike Williams than pay $8-10m a year for another mediocre guy like Gabe.  

[uninja]

On 2/28/2024 at 9:48 AM, The Jokeman said:

I agree letting Douglas go is foolish. With question marks in the secondary of Hyde's return, White's availability etc. having something that was positive should be kept. For the very reason we don't have a replacement on the current roster, for if we did we wouldn't have traded for him to begin with. Now if they don't want to extend him I can understand that more but he's under contract for 2024 and I say let him stay and play. 

 

In the short term letting Douglas go is foolish, but do you really want to give a 30+ CB a big bag? Yeah he played really well for us, but are you gonna get the productivity out of him that his contract would demand? I'd try to retain him on a 2yr deal but I would be really hesitant to make it much longer than that.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

5 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

So I just went back and re-watched it and, yeah, it was kind of an odd standoffish, telling response from Beane.

 

It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Unless:

 

a.) They've talked to him and his agent and he's not interested in doing an extension, wants to test his market next season, and it's the full hit or nothing.

 

b.) They know Tre White is going to be back by Training Camp, they feel comfortable it's not going to hamper him, and he's open to a non-guaranteed extension.

 

c.) They truly feel that Elam was really hampered by his injury last season and it appears they do as Beane brings it up constantly. They truly feel John Butler was really doing him a disservice with his coaching and how he treated him. Reportedly, he wasn't a fan of Kaiir and if you're a young player that has a bad relationship with your coach - I imagine that will mess up your development. And ultimately, that they truly feel that what we saw in the Pittsburgh game is something he can do consistently, if healthy.

 

If all of those things are true, then I can understand where Beane is coming from. I would hope they'd bring back Dane Jackson to go with Tre, Benford, and Elam to provide even more insurance. I imagine he will be and fairly close to minimum.

 

It's tough for me to see him go as I think he and Benford are CLEARLY the safest top 2 CB's on the team. But I've always felt that keeping 3 very good starting Outside CB's in Douglas, Benford, and White on the squad at the same time didn't make sense to me - in the situation we're in cap wise and the amount of starting holes we have at other positions.

 

I would hope though that if this is the plan, that they're able to trade him rather than just cut him. I know we got a 5th back - but we did give up a 3rd Round pick for him. If you could trade the 5th you got for him with him and get a 3rd back, then it was essentially a rental. Not getting anything in return and losing a 3rd (even with a 5th return) just for half a season - that's a little steep.

 

Maybe he becomes a player that is moved on Draft Day as part of a trade? 

I like your trade idea but don't believe he's worth a 3rd even for a 5th . Jalen Ramsey was traded for a 3rd last yr and in the off-season the price is lower for Douglas.

[Shaw66]

28 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

You seem to think it's a choice between signing a decent WR or drafting one high. I'm saying do both. Solve the problem once and for all and leave no doubt. What if the 1st round pick isn't immediately ready? What if we suffer an injury? I don't understand why we have been scraping out the dregs when it comes to WR depth, but on the DL it's an unspeakable sin to have anything less than the most expensive depth in the league. You really think paying the likes of Tim Settle and Jordan Phillips will be more impactful than say a Curtis Samuel?

Hey, Hap -  You've always got interesting takes on things, and this WR vs. dline comment is another.  It's compelling, but I'm not sure it's right.  Might be, and I can't prove it's wrong, but I look at a different way. 

 

First, the Bills were 8th in the league in yards passing per game, 7th in TDs.  20 yards per game behind the Dolphins, 15 behind the Lions, who were #2, and 2 yards per game behind the Chiefs.  My suspicion (not original) is that Diggs was injured for the second half of the season; had he played up to his usual standards, the Bills would have had 10 more yards per game, on average, for the season.  That tells me that there is not a massive hole in the receiving corps.  It's hard to say that the Bills have had a serious negative impact on the passing game because of what you consider an under-allocation of resources to the position.  I say this because unless they add the replacement for Diggs in the first round and he turns into an immediate stud, no one should expect that the Bills are going to get more than 800-900 yards out of their number 2.  If that's the case, the Bills aren't far away.  Factor in likely increased production out of Kincaid, and I just don't see a huge hole.  

 

Second, I'm not saying the Bills don't need receiving help; ideally, the Bills get a #1 receiver in the first round, pair him with Diggs for a year or two, and then move on from Diggs.  However, if they don't hit a homerun and have the luxury of starting two #1s in 2024, they don't need a lot of talent to continue in the top 10 in passing or even move up into the top 5.  I think it depends much more on Brady than on getting some stud to be another target - again, I'd welcome the stud, but I don't see that he's crucial.  

 

Third, you clearly have a different philosophy about how to build a successful team.  Beane and McDermott are all in on the defensive line rotation and getting pressure with four, and that philosophy therefore demands that resources go there.  That's eight players who need to be impactful, and that has a cost associated with it.  The Bills were 7th in passing yards allowed per game, second in TDs allowed, and fourth in sacks.  That's at least some evidence that the allocation of resources to the Dline makes sense.   I've always questioned the rotation, because by needing 8, it's difficult to allocate spending to a true stud in middle, and that's the kind of player who can have out-sized impact on games.  But as I say, I've been able to live with the rotation because it has gotten results.  

 

Finally (and back to #2), I think we all tend to look at the long term less critically and less thoroughly than McDermott and Beane do.  At this time of year, they're thinking a lot about the 2025 and 2026 roster as they consider their choices, because their intention is that the Bills will be good next season AND in the seasons beyond.  One of their big issues has to be who will be the #1 receiver in the future, and how are they going to fill the position?    One answer is exactly as you say - get that guy this year, hope he can be a solid #2 by mid-season, and get a free agent who can help in the draft pick isn't the guy, or isn't the guy yet.  But for all we know, McBeane see what works best for the long term is to plan to get that receiver in the 2025 draft.  They may already be considering how they can stockpile picks in order to trade up.  I don't have any idea, but I think there's more of a plan at work here than I can see.  

 

Having said that, what I hope to see in 2024 is a #2 receiver with decent deep speed, good route running ability, reliable hands.   I want a guy like Shakir but with better size.   He'll run routes better than Davis and will be a regular threat in the offense.  He doesn't have to be great; he has to be smart with enough speed.  After all, it's pretty clear that what works in the NFL these days is having a lot of guys on the field who can execute an offense that attacks what the defense gives them.  With the Cook/Allen run threat, the defense has to give up space elsewhere, and the Bills need a scheme (Brady) and the receivers (Diggs, Shakier, Kincaid, and one more) to attack that space.  

[Westside]

On 2/28/2024 at 9:56 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Nah. If they cut him with a post 1 June it saves us $6.7m this year. But it isn't happening. They are keeping him and doubling down. They better have a backup plan though because I think he is toast.

Are you saying Douglas is toast? If yes, I strongly disagree. He was our best cb last year hands down. Not even close

If not, then I apologize for not understanding and commenting on that misunderstanding. If not Douglas though, then who?

[BigDingus]

On 2/28/2024 at 8:39 AM, HappyDays said:

 

Generally I agree that Douglas was very good for us last year and I have been a proponent of extending him for cap relief this year. That being said I won't be upset with any 30+ year old player Beane decides to move on from this offseason. We have to force young players onto the field one way or another. We've pushed the youth rebuild off for far too long.

 

I mostly agree, but Douglas isn't really "old" either. He's 29 now, will be 30 next season, but still has a couple seasons of good football left in the tank.

 

Most importantly to me, he can help us win a Super Bowl next year. We saw what can happen with injuries, especially in our secondary, so I'm still hoping they can figure out a way to keep him. 

 

Then again, I'm not like a lot of people on here who are optimistic about Elam. He's made some clutch plays, but I don't have much confidence in him overall. 

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

You seem to think it's a choice between signing a decent WR or drafting one high. I'm saying do both. Solve the problem once and for all and leave no doubt. What if the 1st round pick isn't immediately ready? What if we suffer an injury? I don't understand why we have been scraping out the dregs when it comes to WR depth, but on the DL it's an unspeakable sin to have anything less than the most expensive depth in the league. You really think paying the likes of Tim Settle and Jordan Phillips will be more impactful than say a Curtis Samuel?

It is a choice.  The choice is where is the best place to spend limited FA cap dollars.  Do you spend on your 4/5 receiving option or do you spend it on starters at safety and D Line?  Beane and McDermott will spend it on the D as they should, because that's where the biggest holes in the roster are.

 

The math is pretty straightforward.  The Bills need to cut another 71 million from the current cap figure to get cap compliant, have at least 10 million to sign their draft picks, and have money left over to acquire about 14 FAs to complete the 53-man roster.  Currently, Spotrac.com has us at 41 million over the cap.  Of the current guys under contract (regular and futures) you can probably estimate that about 33-35 will be on next year's team (cost about 225 million).  Add the 6 draftees for $10 million and that leaves only 20 million to sign 12-14 players.  That does not leave much room to spend $6 million on a 4th receiving option.  Sorry!  If we have $50 million in cap space, I'd say go for it, but someone once told me that math always wins.  The math is saying we just don't have the cap space. 

Edited February 29 by GASabresIUFan

[2003Contenders]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

You seem to think it's a choice between signing a decent WR or drafting one high. I'm saying do both. Solve the problem once and for all and leave no doubt. What if the 1st round pick isn't immediately ready? What if we suffer an injury? I don't understand why we have been scraping out the dregs when it comes to WR depth, but on the DL it's an unspeakable sin to have anything less than the most expensive depth in the league. You really think paying the likes of Tim Settle and Jordan Phillips will be more impactful than say a Curtis Samuel?

I agree. Also just looking at the sheer numbers, Diggs and Shakir are the only receivers that are certain to return next season (and some folks aren't even certain about Diggs).

 

That means that is is necessary to replace Davis and Sherfield who are likely gone (and possibly Harty too). I am hopeful that Shorter will be a piece of that puzzle -- but that is far from a sure thing.

 

We clearly do not have the cap $ to pursue a top free agent receiver but someone like Samuel or Mooney makes sense in addition to an early draft pick.

[GunnerBill]

24 minutes ago, Westside said:

Are you saying Douglas is toast? If yes, I strongly disagree. He was our best cb last year hands down. Not even close

If not, then I apologize for not understanding and commenting on that misunderstanding. If not Douglas though, then who?

 

No. Von. 

[TheFunPolice]

I have never understood the term "luxury pick"

 

Do we want to WIN a Super Bowl or not? 

 

That term suggests that we're just trying to survive, man, and do some stuff here and there. 

 

Meanwhile, the Bengals will draft another WR and have like 5 #1 WR for Burrow and continue to beat us in the playoffs while we settle for the Gentleman's B in life. 

 

Being great and winning it all requires some guts. 

Edited February 29 by TheFunPolice

[ColoradoBills]

23 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Douglas isn’t being released.  If he isn’t going to return, he is going to be traded.  He is under contract for next year and we should get at least the 3rd we traded for him back.  
 

That said, I think he’ll be back.  You don’t trade for a guy with term, who then played very well for you, then just dump him on the side of the road.  
 

Odds favor an extension, but maybe both sides are having trouble getting to a meeting of the minds on $ and term.  
 

People are reading to much into Beane usage of past tense.  He was describing how Douglas played last season.  He was also describing meeting him last year.  Both of those events are in the past. Should have said he was looking forward to having him next season? Maybe, but since when does Beane care about the niceties? 
 

This could drag on for a while. Beane doesn’t have do anything with Douglas.  Rasul is under contract.  There is no cap cost to release or trade him.  With the higher cap Beane may not have the urgency to extend Douglas as we all originally thought.  Beane may now have the luxury of waiting to see how White recovers and/or how Elam progresses in the off-season workouts.  

 

Best explanation of the Douglas situation that I have read so far.  Thank you.

 

I would add that if anything, Beane probably had a long term $ number in mind for the extension BUT after Douglas's play that number may

have gone up significantly.  If it has it means his trade value (3rd and 5th) has gone up or at least remains the same.  This talk of Beane

cutting him is insane.

 

If Beane thinks he may have to deal off Douglas, he may have multiple teams interested.  It didn't take me long to look at this year's 3rd

round early picks to see a team like the Cardinals needing a vet CB.  Dealing pick #91 and getting back an early 3rd round pick is a net plus.

 

It will be interesting to see what ultimately happens.