Takeaways from Beane's Combine pressers

[Shaw66]

49 minutes ago, mrags said:

He’s under contract. They can find other ways to get under the cap. They don’t need to cut him and create another hole 

Maybe you're right, and Douglas is a lock.   On the other hand, there's no denying that reducing cap and dead cap in a nice amount simply by letting one guy can be pretty attractive.   Douglas is a good solid player, but he's not some stud in his prime.  Other guys can do the job.  

 

That's what's so interesting and challenging about  what Beane has to do over the next few months.  As I understand it, he has a lot of ways he can go to get under the cap.   Which way he goes depends in part on McDermott tells him he can live with.   McDermott may say he absolutely has to have Douglas, given what else he has to work with at corner, the depth he thinks he needs, etc. and how easy it will be to replace the player who leaves because the cap relief had to come from somewhere.  

 

Point is that cap relief is going to create holes or issues at one position or another, and Beane and McDermott are managing that process.  Trimming off veteran talent and replacing it with younger, cheaper talent is the art and science of running a program that stays on top of the league.   Time will tell how good they are at it.  

[GASabresIUFan]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

Take a small step back at center to take a medium step forward at WR... No brainer IMO.

Do you really believe Beane is spending even decent $ on a WR?  What happened to your get younger argument?  Who do you believe we can actually afford?  Mediocre players like Reynolds are projected to get 6-8 Million?  Are we really going to waste that on a potential 4th WR when we need starters at DT and S?  

 

I will be shocked if Beane goes the decent $ WR route in free agency.  We simply can't afford that.  

[wettlaufer]

13 hours ago, mrags said:

If we let go of Douglas this staff is outright ridiculous. He was our best defender down the stretch last year. And it wasn’t even close. 

Cutting Taron Johnson would save $7.7M (including the debt cap hit). I'd rather do that and put someone in there while keeping Douglas for one more season at $10M.

[mrags]

2 minutes ago, wettlaufer said:

Cutting Taron Johnson would save $7.7M (including the debt cap hit). I'd rather do that and put someone in there while keeping Douglas for one more season at $10M.

 No way on that. Johnson is one of the best Nickle corners in the league. And at 27 years old he’ll get more life out of him than Douglas at this point. If McDermott ran a normal 4-3 or was more comfortable changing looks on defense I might say ok. But he’s not. He sticks with his defense and TJ is a huge part of it. Hard pass for me. 
 

the fact is they shouldn’t have to do either. They can get under the cap in multiple other ways. 

[HappyDays]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Mediocre players like Reynolds are projected to get 6-8 Million?

 

Would much rather do that than give the same type of money to players like Star Lotulelei, Vernon Butler, Jordan Phillips... Why is it never at WR that we're willing to dip into the lower middle class of free agents?

[GASabresIUFan]

25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Would much rather do that than give the same type of money to players like Star Lotulelei, Vernon Butler, Jordan Phillips... Why is it never at WR that we're willing to dip into the lower middle class of free agents?

That's not true at all.  How did John Brown or Emmanuel Sanders get here?  What about Cole Beasley?  The Bills signed Beasley to a 4 year $29 million deal with 14 million guaranteed.  Sanders was given a 1-year $6 million deal and Brown's first contract with the Bills was 3 years 27 million with 111.7 guaranteed.  

 

If we are ever going to get younger and better at WR we need to invest (1st & 2nd rd picks) in WRs.  We are never going to have a complete group until we stop signing other teams' castoffs and we can't afford another top-end receiver.

[Warriorspikes51]

Beane tracks players he really wants for years and usually tries at least once to acquire them before eventually doing so

 

Emmanuel Sanders (nearly signed before Diggs trade)  Von Miller (Rams paid more than we wanted to)  Diggs (didn’t he mention he spoke with Minny the year before)

 

I’m sure there’s other examples

 

 

Edited February 29 by Warriorspikes51

[wettlaufer]

1 hour ago, mrags said:

 No way on that. Johnson is one of the best Nickle corners in the league. And at 27 years old he’ll get more life out of him than Douglas at this point. If McDermott ran a normal 4-3 or was more comfortable changing looks on defense I might say ok. But he’s not. He sticks with his defense and TJ is a huge part of it. Hard pass for me. 
 

the fact is they shouldn’t have to do either. They can get under the cap in multiple other ways. 

 

Cap problems this big always lead to disappointing departures. TJ is great and I love him, but there are few ways (including restructuring and other iddling) to get under the cap that don't involve such cuts. 

 

Taron has one season left before UFA in 2025. I'll take the chance on letting go of a great nickel DB and keeping Douglas on his last year. We need a solid outside corner more than we need a solid nickel (especially with Milano and Bernard both playing the majority of 2024). Johnson is going to command very large dollars after 2024, so why keep him given we still need some (but less) cap help in 2025.

[mrags]

2 minutes ago, wettlaufer said:

 

Cap problems this big always lead to disappointing departures. TJ is great and I love him, but there are few ways (including restructuring and other iddling) to get under the cap that don't involve such cuts. 

 

Taron has one season left before UFA in 2025. I'll take the chance on letting go of a great nickel DB and keeping Douglas on his last year. We need a solid outside corner more than we need a solid nickel (especially with Milano and Bernard both playing the majority of 2024). Johnson is going to command very large dollars after 2024, so why keep him given we still need some (but less) cap help in 2025.

They can get pretty damn close by just restructuring Josh and extending/restructuring Dawkins. Add in saving between 3-5 million by cutting each of the following: Harty, Hines, Matakevich, Neal

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

How did John Brown or Emmanuel Sanders get here?  What about Cole Beasley?

 

Brown and Beasley were great signings... I don't know why we haven't tried to replicate that early success. You're making my poiny for me. Overpay a decent WR with upside a little. It's such an easy path to success and we just continually avoid it for no reason.

[GunnerBill]

6 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Just as a matter of semantics, I think it's more than hope.   What you mean, I think, and I agree, is that there is no way to know today what the Bills will get from Miller next season.  That's true, but what we've seen so far is completely consistent with a full recovery.  So, to say it's a hope and nothing else really isn't accurate.  

 

Frankly, I think his chances of returning to full form are better than White's.  

 

That is the bit I dispute. There were times last year when his level of discomfort just moving was concerning. 

 

I hope I am wrong. But I can't see Von making an impact in 2024.

[wettlaufer]

40 minutes ago, mrags said:

They can get pretty damn close by just restructuring Josh and extending/restructuring Dawkins. Add in saving between 3-5 million by cutting each of the following: Harty, Hines, Matakevich, Neal

 

Agree with the JOsh restructure and those cuts as well. Matakevich isn't on the roster. We are still $16M above the cap and we need to sign rookies. More hard decisions need to be made.

[GASabresIUFan]

30 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Brown and Beasley were great signings... I don't know why we haven't tried to replicate that early success. You're making my poiny for me. Overpay a decent WR with upside a little. It's such an easy path to success and we just continually avoid it for no reason.

Here is the problem.  We invested good cap into these 3 players; Brown had one good year of his 2 plus in Buffalo, Sanders was ok his one year, and Beasley was good to excellent all 3 years.  Brown and Beasley were also Josh's No. 1 & No .2 targets in 2019.  Beasley remained the slot target for the next 2 seasons, but Davis and Diggs became the outside threats from 2020 forward.  Sanders was 4th in catches in his one season behind Diggs, Beasley, and Knox.  

 

I'd much rather have a long-term strategy to replace Diggs and Davis, and that can only be done through the draft.  Like Sanders, an FA WR is probably going to be Josh's 4th or 5th most popular target behind Diggs, Kincaid, Shakir, and possibly Cook.  If Beane drafts a WR in the 1st 2 rounds, an FA WR could end up being our 6th best option.  Is that the place to invest 6 million of our limited cap?

 

 

Edited February 29 by GASabresIUFan

[Gunsgoodtime]

3 hours ago, wettlaufer said:

Cutting Taron Johnson would save $7.7M (including the debt cap hit). I'd rather do that and put someone in there while keeping Douglas for one more season at $10M.

Might as well cut everyone if you doing this 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

17 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Brandon Beane is always worth a listen because he is a straight shooter and sometimes probably tells you more than he should. Having listened to his presser and his huddle with the Buffalo media here are my takeaways:

 

1. They are going to add a receiver early but it doesn't have to be a specific type and he doesn't have to have a specific skillset. They are going to evaluate all these guys in the round and the one they take will be because they think he is the best available at their spot and the value matches the round;

 

2. Von Miller is on the team in 2024. I know we all suspected that anyway, some of us hoped it wasn't necessarily the case but the Bills are doubling down;

 

3. Rasul Douglas is not the absolute lock to be back I think most of us assumed. He twice went immediately to past tense when talking about him "I liked what he brought to our defense" and "it was a pleasure getting to know him." Now neither of those definitely mean he is gone, but there are ways of making those same points without phrasing in the past tense and as I said at the start sometimes Beane tells you more than he means to. It definitely made my ears prick up. He is almost $10m of pure savings with zero dead cap if they cut him. I'm not saying I expect them to but I thought the tense he used was interesting. 

 

4. They are not going to use their 1st round pick on a safety. Beane was pretty clear that at that spot he thinks about smarts and study habits and not 40 times and athletic profiles. I think that screamed to be they are going to take a guy who is good on tape not good in shorts. 

 

5. Don't expect them to draft OL early and do expect them to extend Dion. I also would not be at all surprised if they extend Spencer Brown before the season. He seemed very happy with the situation up front. 

Why not just cut Tre he's finished and it saves 6mil this yr and more next.

 

Trading for Douglas using a 3rd Rd pk wouldn't surprise me btw. He's got to still have some trade value though maybe they trade him for a 4th rder to a team that can use him. 

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Why not just cut Tre he's finished and it saves 6mil this yr and more next.

 

Trading for Douglas using a 3rd Rd pk wouldn't surprise me btw. He's got to still have some trade value though maybe they trade him for a 4th rder to a team that can use him. 

 

The Tre savings are not the simple (complicated by the injury) and in reality unless he can pass a medical before the league year starts in two weeks the max save there is $4.5m. A pay cut is still the way to go on Tre IMO. 

 

They could try and trade Douglas, that's true. They could still keep him. They could cut him. I was just taken by Beane's phrasing. I thought Douglas was a lock for a short extension to spread money. Maybe they have had those conversations and they haven't gone well.

[NastyNateSoldiers]

22 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

The Tre savings are not the simple (complicated by the injury) and in reality unless he can pass a medical before the league year starts in two weeks the max save there is $4.5m. A pay cut is still the way to go on Tre IMO. 

 

They could try and trade Douglas, that's true. They could still keep him. They could cut him. I was just taken by Beane's phrasing. I thought Douglas was a lock for a short extension to spread money. Maybe they have had those conversations and they haven't gone well.

They could try to get Tre to take the pay cut if not cut him when he's healthy and nobody is gonna pay him coming off ACL injury. We hold all the cards in this situation and need to use them.

[eball]

4 hours ago, wettlaufer said:

Cutting Taron Johnson would save $7.7M (including the debt cap hit). I'd rather do that and put someone in there while keeping Douglas for one more season at $10M.

Sure, let’s cut one of the best players at his position — and one who fits this particular defense perfectly. That makes sense. 
 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

They could try to get Tre to take the pay cut if not cut him when he's healthy and nobody is gonna pay him coming off ACL injury. We hold all the cards in this situation and need to use them.

 

We do hold all the cards, I agree. It is why I think a paycut is the most likely option.

[BillsFanForever19]

20 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

3. Rasul Douglas is not the absolute lock to be back I think most of us assumed. He twice went immediately to past tense when talking about him "I liked what he brought to our defense" and "it was a pleasure getting to know him." Now neither of those definitely mean he is gone, but there are ways of making those same points without phrasing in the past tense and as I said at the start sometimes Beane tells you more than he means to. It definitely made my ears prick up. He is almost $10m of pure savings with zero dead cap if they cut him. I'm not saying I expect them to but I thought the tense he used was interesting. 

 

So I just went back and re-watched it and, yeah, it was kind of an odd standoffish, telling response from Beane.

 

It doesn't make a whole lot of sense to me. Unless:

 

a.) They've talked to him and his agent and he's not interested in doing an extension, wants to test his market next season, and it's the full hit or nothing.

 

b.) They know Tre White is going to be back by Training Camp, they feel comfortable it's not going to hamper him, and he's open to a non-guaranteed extension.

 

c.) They truly feel that Elam was really hampered by his injury last season and it appears they do as Beane brings it up constantly. They truly feel John Butler was really doing him a disservice with his coaching and how he treated him. Reportedly, he wasn't a fan of Kaiir and if you're a young player that has a bad relationship with your coach - I imagine that will mess up your development. And ultimately, that they truly feel that what we saw in the Pittsburgh game is something he can do consistently, if healthy.

 

If all of those things are true, then I can understand where Beane is coming from. I would hope they'd bring back Dane Jackson to go with Tre, Benford, and Elam to provide even more insurance. I imagine he will be and fairly close to minimum.

 

It's tough for me to see him go as I think he and Benford are CLEARLY the safest top 2 CB's on the team. But I've always felt that keeping 3 very good starting Outside CB's in Douglas, Benford, and White on the squad at the same time didn't make sense to me - in the situation we're in cap wise and the amount of starting holes we have at other positions.

 

I would hope though that if this is the plan, that they're able to trade him rather than just cut him. I know we got a 5th back - but we did give up a 3rd Round pick for him. If you could trade the 5th you got for him with him and get a 3rd back, then it was essentially a rental. Not getting anything in return and losing a 3rd (even with a 5th return) just for half a season - that's a little steep.

 

Maybe he becomes a player that is moved on Draft Day as part of a trade? 

Edited February 29 by BillsFanForever19