Takeaways from Beane's Combine pressers

[Shaw66]

4 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nope. That $6.7m is money that we never pay if we cut him. It is the unguaranteed portion of this year's salary. 

 

It isn't that I'm mad at Von. Not at all. It is that I genuinely think he is finished. Watching him last year was painful even watching him move let alone try and rush. He had two nice plays vs the Steelers - that is true - and I'm suddenly asked to believe that is proof he is back. I'd love to be wrong, but I think he is toast. My guess is he ends up replacing AJE as badically the passing downs only defensive end in 2024 and ends up with 4 or 5 sacks maximum. I think, sadly, it was one serious injury too far for a guy his age.

I think you're too quick to write him off.   I take the optimistic view, and I don't think it's too far-fetched. The optimistic view goes like this:

 

He's played essentially the entire season for just about all of his career.  15, 16 games, year after year.  The timing of his injury in Buffalo cost him half of one season and practically all of last season.   It's usually the second season back that players really recover from their ACL repair.  Tre was the same, injured at about the same time of year.  There's very little evidence that he's breaking down.  When he signed in Buffalo, he said he intended to play all six years his contract.  He's a really serious competitor.  He has a good body.  His play in 2023 improved from game to game, with his best game, as you said, being the second last of the season.  All of these things, and that's a lot, suggest that there isn't any good reason to thing he's done. 

 

He may be done.  Lots of guys drop off the cliff like that.  Absolutely possible.   But he has all the hallmarks of a guy who, absent further injury, will return to form.  I wouldn't bet against him. 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Malazan said:

 

It is more advantageous to cut him next offseason. They suffer a much higher penalty in 2025 cutting him this year than they do in in 2026 cutting him next year (Post-June). The total dead cap + this year cap hit of keeping him and cutting him in 2025 is not much more than the total dead cap of cutting him this year.

 

Personally, I think keeping him and hoping that he can provide something at some point in the season makes more sense. The injury he suffered tends to take more than year for younger guys to recover fully and achieve previous ability.

 

I agree if he can contribute you cut him after year 3. That was always the way the deal was designed. But I genuinely think he is done. Therefore it is sunk cost. And spending another $6.7m on him that we don't have to makes no sense to me. It does accelerate a lot of cap hit into 2025 that would otherwise spread between 2025 and 2026, that is true. But to me spending another single dollar on Von that we don't have to (which is just that $6.7m) is throwing good money after bad.

7 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I think you're too quick to write him off.   I take the optimistic view, and I don't think it's too far-fetched. The optimistic view goes like this:

 

He's played essentially the entire season for just about all of his career.  15, 16 games, year after year.  The timing of his injury in Buffalo cost him half of one season and practically all of last season.   It's usually the second season back that players really recover from their ACL repair.  Tre was the same, injured at about the same time of year.  There's very little evidence that he's breaking down.  When he signed in Buffalo, he said he intended to play all six years his contract.  He's a really serious competitor.  He has a good body.  His play in 2023 improved from game to game, with his best game, as you said, being the second last of the season.  All of these things, and that's a lot, suggest that there isn't any good reason to thing he's done. 

 

He may be done.  Lots of guys drop off the cliff like that.  Absolutely possible.   But he has all the hallmarks of a guy who, absent further injury, will return to form.  I wouldn't bet against him. 

 

 

 

I would. Based on what I saw with my eyes. Which was a guy barely able to move. This was not 2022 Tre White where he was out there competing but not close to his best. Von the majority of his snaps was less effective than a traffic cone.

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

I actually don't want Beane thinking like this. We have an extra $12.9 million to work with which is huge. But DON'T use that money to keep older players that he otherwise would have cut. I would still make the exact same cuts/restructures we would have made with the cap being at $242M like expected, and then use the $12.9M to sign a real difference maker in FA (specifically at WR or EDGE).

 

As an example I still want us to cut Morse. To me this a no brainer move. Ditto for White. I worry Beane will see the cap increase and think he can keep Morse/White, or hand out one of his never-a-good-idea paycuts. I hope he stays the course and uses the extra cap space wisely. Please don't use it as an excuse to just run it all back.

First, I have to say that I doubt Logic's bolded language is true.  I don't think Beane was surprised at the cap number.   We were, the media were, but I doubt Beane was.  The cap is based on a formula, I'm sure a complicated formula, but the the owners and GMs have access to all, or most, of the data that goes into the formula.   They know what the TV contracts are, for example, so they know what the revenue is.  The owners have good projections.  So, I think Beane's been planning for a number like this all along.  Furthermore, six months ago or more, when Beane didn't necessarily know where he would be, he had the beginnings of a plan to deal with the cap.  He has it every year; it's something GMs and their staff do. 

 

But, regardless of whether he got a pleasant surprise or not, I think you're correct about what you're saying.  I don't if Morse or White or anyone goes, I don't know who gets extended.  What I know is that Beane and McDermott intend that this team be very good, like top five good, season after season, and the only way to do that is to rotate players through the system.  You have to get rid of veterans you like and be smart about getting younger guys to fill their places.  So, I agree, that any of White, Morse, Douglas, or some others could be gone.  I'll be a little surprised when the news breaks, and I'll wonder what the plan is, but there will be a plan, and they will develop or acquire people who move into the lineup.  

 

It's been several seasons since this team has gone into the season with unfilled holes.   The Bills have quality guys at every position.  Some of them guys you'd like to see replaced by upgrades, but even those guys are legitimate NFL starters.  The only way to continue having quality everywhere is to constantly replace aging guys with younger guys, and being smart about how you acquire the younger ones. 

[In Summary]

8 hours ago, mrags said:

If we let go of Douglas this staff is outright ridiculous. He was our best defender down the stretch last year. And it wasn’t even close. 

........plus the expenditure of a 3rd round pick.....

[finn]

5 hours ago, The Jokeman said:

Gotta wonder what would have happened had we kept Roland Mitchell. As Yes, we got Leonard Smith in the trade but Mitchell had a longer career. 

I forgot about Roland Mitchell. Later, I was so excited about Henry Jones at safety. But then Marv Levy sat him during the Super Bowl when we (as I recall) Leonard Smith was getting smoked. 

[Shaw66]

6 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I agree if he can contribute you cut him after year 3. That was always the way the deal was designed. But I genuinely think he is done. Therefore it is sunk cost. And spending another $6.7m on him that we don't have to makes no sense to me. It does accelerate a lot of cap hit into 2025 that would otherwise spread between 2025 and 2026, that is true. But to me spending another single dollar on Von that we don't have to (which is just that $6.7m) is throwing good money after bad.

 

I would. Based on what I saw with my eyes. Which was a guy barely able to move. This was not 2022 Tre White where he was out there competing but not close to his best. Von the majority of his snaps was less effective than a traffic cone.

I get it.  I saw it.  But his first game back was telling.  He wasn't even pretending to compete. The Bills very clearly had a plan for him, a plan that had a schedule of how hard he work.  They used his first month back as preseason.  And the consistent reports are there most players take more than 12 months to recover.  I'd guess that if you asked the Bills, they'd say his progress through the end of the season was what the doctors and trainers said they should expect.  They no doubt hoped for more, but that wasn't there.   

 

Bottom line, I don't think the 2023 playoffs showed a Von Miller whose recovery was complete.   

[GunnerBill]

3 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I get it.  I saw it.  But his first game back was telling.  He wasn't even pretending to compete. The Bills very clearly had a plan for him, a plan that had a schedule of how hard he work.  They used his first month back as preseason.  And the consistent reports are there most players take more than 12 months to recover.  I'd guess that if you asked the Bills, they'd say his progress through the end of the season was what the doctors and trainers said they should expect.  They no doubt hoped for more, but that wasn't there.   

 

Bottom line, I don't think the 2023 playoffs showed a Von Miller whose recovery was complete.   

 

Yea. You hope for the best. So do I. But it is hope and nothing else.

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

He is almost 32 years old and plays arguably the 2nd least important/easiest to fill position on offense. It's time to get younger and cheaper at spots like that. Bates is a capable center, Alec Anderson looked good in preseason last year, and it's an easy position to fill on day 3 of the draft.

 

I would keep Morse for $3 million this season and not a penny more, and with no ramifications in future years. That's equivalent to his dead cap hit. Anything more than that I'll take the $8.5 million in savings.

 

Beane, McDermott and more importantly Josh Allen would disagree with you.  Bates has yet to prove he is better than Morse and Anderson failed to earn a single snap last season.  Dumping Morse would weaken the line which was one of the team’s great strength last season.  
 

There are much easier ways to lower his cap hit this season such as a restructure or a non-guaranteed extension with a void year or two.  

Odds favor him moving on after next season, but if continues to play well, why fix it if it ain’t broke?

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Not sure what Beane will do. But Morse during his end of season presser said something to the effect of "I would love to be back if they'll have me." That caught my attention. I can't imagine a player under contract would say that unless they had an inkling that a possible release was in their future.

 

You can read a million different things into anything someone says. And many posters on the board always read more into what's said than what they're actually simply saying.

 

Personally, I take that as face value. A humble guy being humble. He realizes his age and his cost. And that they approach him on a yearly basis to play with his contract. He's a guy who doesn't take things for granted. So when he was asked if he'll be back, he simply said that he'd love to if they'll have him.

 

Players often say a version of "that's not up to me" when asked that question. It's the truth. Yet people love to take it as "he must know his job isn't safe" or in Diggs' case "oh, he doesn't want to be here". It's a really standard answer that simply means what it means.

 

He said he wants to be here. Beane says the OL is in the best shape it's been since he got here and raves about it. And any OL coach will tell you, continuity is one of the most important things in a successful OL. Change one piece and you change the flow of how the unit plays off itself in terms of compatibility and comfort.

 

We don't know what Beane will do with anything until they do it. But listening to Beane rave about the OL, knowing that continuity is extremely important to that, Morse was not a liability last season, that he wants to be here, and has always been amenable to do things with his contract to help - I see it as incredibly unlikely he's outright cut.

 

It would take him or his agent saying "I will not do anything to my contract, you pay me or cut me" for that to be considered IMO. And given where he is in his career and what he'd be looking at if he were to be cut, I don't see any way that happens.

Edited February 28 by BillsFanForever19

[Shaw66]

35 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea. You hope for the best. So do I. But it is hope and nothing else.

Just as a matter of semantics, I think it's more than hope.   What you mean, I think, and I agree, is that there is no way to know today what the Bills will get from Miller next season.  That's true, but what we've seen so far is completely consistent with a full recovery.  So, to say it's a hope and nothing else really isn't accurate.  

 

Frankly, I think his chances of returning to full form are better than White's.  

[HappyDays]

39 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Bates has yet to prove he is better than Morse and Anderson failed to earn a single snap last season.  Dumping Morse would weaken the line which was one of the team’s great strength last season.  

 

It's not about his replacement being better. It's about using his cap space to improve more important positions. Take a small step back at center to take a medium step forward at WR... No brainer IMO.

[<bills4life>]

7 hours ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

You don’t give up that draft capital for a rental.

You do if you think he is the missing piece needed to make the Super Bowl. Especially considering you already have another 3rd round draft pick. 

[Aussie Joe]

In respect of Morse … I think they would have already cut him by now if they were going to move on from him … so I suspect he will be back …

 

I really don’t understand what their plan was for Bates … they have paid starter money for him… but don’t value him as one … even when up against a 32 yr old guy … they would rather pay the older guy twice as much money to play..

 

It’s not even worth trading Bates or cutting him as you couldn’t replace him for the money you save …  

 

Maybe they will trade him next year ..unless of course  they restructure him again this season…

[John from Riverside]

Releasing Douglas is a huge mistake
 

Just extend him to lessen the cap hit

[Warriorspikes51]

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

Releasing Douglas is a huge mistake
 

Just extend him to lessen the cap hit

it would make 0 sense. He has legit trade value. We don’t have anyone else in the secondary who consistently takes the ball away at the moment

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

I think you're too quick to write him off.   I take the optimistic view, and I don't think it's too far-fetched. The optimistic view goes like this:

 

He's played essentially the entire season for just about all of his career.  15, 16 games, year after year.  The timing of his injury in Buffalo cost him half of one season and practically all of last season.   It's usually the second season back that players really recover from their ACL repair.  Tre was the same, injured at about the same time of year.  There's very little evidence that he's breaking down.  When he signed in Buffalo, he said he intended to play all six years his contract.  He's a really serious competitor.  He has a good body.  His play in 2023 improved from game to game, with his best game, as you said, being the second last of the season.  All of these things, and that's a lot, suggest that there isn't any good reason to thing he's done. 

 

He may be done.  Lots of guys drop off the cliff like that.  Absolutely possible.   But he has all the hallmarks of a guy who, absent further injury, will return to form.  I wouldn't bet against him. 

 

 

I respectfully disagree.   A guy 22-30 yes. A guy at his age with all the milage on him... no.  Athletes don't get better after a certain age,and he is at or past that point and with all the injuries.   I just don't see it. 

[BillsFan130]

The Douglas situation is fascinating to me.

I wonder what the plan would be then:

 

CB1: Benford

CB2: Tre?

CB3: Elam 

 

And then maybe draft a depth CB/ core 4 special teamer to fill the siran Neal role in the mid rounds? (If they were to cut Neal and save some cap that is)

Edited February 29 by BillsFan130

[Aussie Joe]

4 minutes ago, BillsFan130 said:

The Douglas situation is fascinating to me.

I wonder what the plan would be then:

 

CB1: Benford

CB2: Tre?

CB3: Elam 

 

And then maybe draft a depth CB/ core 4 special teamer to fill the siran Neal role in the mid rounds? (If they were to cut Neal and save some cap that is)

Is Tre even going to be ready to play Week 1? 

[ganesh]

10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Generally I agree that Douglas was very good for us last year and I have been a proponent of extending him for cap relief this year. That being said I won't be upset with any 30+ year old player Beane decides to move on from this offseason. We have to force young players onto the field one way or another. We've pushed the youth rebuild off for far too long.

Agreed.  The Bills need to get younger, faster and FAST......They cannot be afraid to offload veterans with bloated salaries while young players with bloated salaries are riding the pine,  We have to start living and dying with our young players...

[BillsFan130]

Just now, Aussie Joe said:

Is Tre even going to be ready to play Week 1? 

I would bet yes as he tore it October 1st and Achilles injuries these days typically seem to be 6- 9 month range.

 

But regardless that would be a big gamble as who knows how effective he would even be