Takeaways from Beane's Combine pressers

[Brian Higgins hair]

2 hours ago, vtnatefootball11 said:

 

Although I'm sure Beane is keeping all options open, I have to think this is a little bit of posturing here. He may be trying to gain a little leverage in negotiations with Douglas' agent for a short term extension. Would be shocked if the Bills just cut Douglas outright with what he brought to the table, how good of a fit he is for this defense, and the fact that we traded a legitimate pick for this guy.  I mean you saw how resistant Beane was to let go of Hines after we traded only a 6th round pick, can't imagine he just waists that 3rd for 5th swap.

My exact thoughts.

Beanes job is to not let things slip, as many see it here. But rather to send subtle messages. In this case, to Douglas in order to renegotiate a short term extension. Tre is not coming back at even 60% at seasons open with an Achilles injury. No chance.
Douglas is going nowhere this season. 

[Malazan]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Nah. If they cut him with a post 1 June it saves us $6.7m this year. But it isn't happening. They are keeping him and doubling down. They better have a backup plan though because I think he is toast.

 

It saves 6.7m this year to have to pay it the next. That money doesn't simply not have to be paid. It makes little sense to cut him beyond the "RAWR I'M MAD AT VON MILLER SO GET HIM OFF THE TEAM AT ALL COSTS" thought process

[GunnerBill]

6 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

It saves 6.7m this year to have to pay it the next. That money doesn't simply not have to be paid. It makes little sense to cut him beyond the "RAWR I'M MAD AT VON MILLER SO GET HIM OFF THE TEAM AT ALL COSTS" thought process

 

Nope. That $6.7m is money that we never pay if we cut him. It is the unguaranteed portion of this year's salary. 

 

It isn't that I'm mad at Von. Not at all. It is that I genuinely think he is finished. Watching him last year was painful even watching him move let alone try and rush. He had two nice plays vs the Steelers - that is true - and I'm suddenly asked to believe that is proof he is back. I'd love to be wrong, but I think he is toast. My guess is he ends up replacing AJE as badically the passing downs only defensive end in 2024 and ends up with 4 or 5 sacks maximum. I think, sadly, it was one serious injury too far for a guy his age.

[GASabresIUFan]

20 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nope. That $6.7m is money that we never pay if we cut him. It is the unguaranteed portion of this year's salary. 

 

It isn't that I'm mad at Von. Not at all. It is that I genuinely think he is finished. Watching him last year was painful even watching him move let alone try and rush. He had two nice plays vs the Steelers - that is true - and I'm suddenly asked to believe that is proof he is back. I'd love to be wrong, but I think he is toast. My guess is he ends up replacing AJE as badically the passing downs only defensive end in 2024 and ends up with 4 or 5 sacks maximum. I think, sadly, it was one serious injury too far for a guy his age.

If he plays on passing downs and gets 5 sacks, that significantly more than the zero we received this past season. It’s not 25 mill value.  It’s not even $5 mill in value, but considering we are stuck with him for this season, it’s at least a reasonable contribution for his roster spot.  
 

 

[HappyDays]

3 hours ago, Logic said:

I'd be quite surprised if they cut Rasul Douglas, particularly after the cap number wound up being higher than Beane and co. expected.

 

I actually don't want Beane thinking like this. We have an extra $12.9 million to work with which is huge. But DON'T use that money to keep older players that he otherwise would have cut. I would still make the exact same cuts/restructures we would have made with the cap being at $242M like expected, and then use the $12.9M to sign a real difference maker in FA (specifically at WR or EDGE).

 

As an example I still want us to cut Morse. To me this a no brainer move. Ditto for White. I worry Beane will see the cap increase and think he can keep Morse/White, or hand out one of his never-a-good-idea paycuts. I hope he stays the course and uses the extra cap space wisely. Please don't use it as an excuse to just run it all back.

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

As an example I still want us to cut Morse.

What is your rationale for cutting Morse when he can be restructured capturing 2/3 of the savings for cutting him?  Bates has yet to prove he is a better player, but he is a great insurance policy for the OG and C.  Why weaken a line that player well last year as a group?

[njbuff]

I don't take much out of it, but if they think Douglas is the problem, then they aren't too bright about football and that thing McDermott said about winning a SB is a matter of when, not if.........

 

will surely NEVER happen. 

[Aussie Joe]

Regarding  Douglas … perhaps his agent is asking too much money for the extension, and Beane coming across a little lukewarn yesterday could be a bit of a signal to the agent to pull his head in…

 

Based on the way he played last year, and with question marks over Tre and Elam, I  expect him to be back … if he signs an extension, I doubt he has any guaranteed money past the end of 2025 … I think it’s likely  he has two more years left in him based on what we saw in 23 and then they cut bait …

 

 

[Big Turk]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Brandon Beane is always worth a listen because he is a straight shooter and sometimes probably tells you more than he should. Having listened to his presser and his huddle with the Buffalo media here are my takeaways:

 

1. They are going to add a receiver early but it doesn't have to be a specific type and he doesn't have to have a specific skillset. They are going to evaluate all these guys in the round and the one they take will be because they think he is the best available at their spot and the value matches the round;

 

2. Von Miller is on the team in 2024. I know we all suspected that anyway, some of us hoped it wasn't necessarily the case but the Bills are doubling down;

 

3. Rasul Douglas is not the absolute lock to be back I think most of us assumed. He twice went immediately to past tense when talking about him "I liked what he brought to our defense" and "it was a pleasure getting to know him." Now neither of those definitely mean he is gone, but there are ways of making those same points without phrasing in the past tense and as I said at the start sometimes Beane tells you more than he means to. It definitely made my ears prick up. He is almost $10m of pure savings with zero dead cap if they cut him. I'm not saying I expect them to but I thought the tense he used was interesting. 

 

4. They are not going to use their 1st round pick on a safety. Beane was pretty clear that at that spot he thinks about smarts and study habits and not 40 times and athletic profiles. I think that screamed to be they are going to take a guy who is good on tape not good in shorts. 

 

5. Don't expect them to draft OL early and do expect them to extend Dion. I also would not be at all surprised if they extend Spencer Brown before the season. He seemed very happy with the situation up front. 

 

I'd much rather they extend Douglas to bring that cap hit down than release him.  Why would you trade for a guy and give up a 3rd to cut him?

[Alphadawg7]

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Brandon Beane is always worth a listen because he is a straight shooter and sometimes probably tells you more than he should. Having listened to his presser and his huddle with the Buffalo media here are my takeaways:

 

1. They are going to add a receiver early but it doesn't have to be a specific type and he doesn't have to have a specific skillset. They are going to evaluate all these guys in the round and the one they take will be because they think he is the best available at their spot and the value matches the round;

 

Not only do I think WR will be early, but I also think they are likely going to add a 2nd one on day 3.

 

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

2. Von Miller is on the team in 2024. I know we all suspected that anyway, some of us hoped it wasn't necessarily the case but the Bills are doubling down;

 

Yup, I think this was obvious to most 

 

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

3. Rasul Douglas is not the absolute lock to be back I think most of us assumed. He twice went immediately to past tense when talking about him "I liked what he brought to our defense" and "it was a pleasure getting to know him." Now neither of those definitely mean he is gone, but there are ways of making those same points without phrasing in the past tense and as I said at the start sometimes Beane tells you more than he means to. It definitely made my ears prick up. He is almost $10m of pure savings with zero dead cap if they cut him. I'm not saying I expect them to but I thought the tense he used was interesting. 

 

While I agree he is not a lock, I also wouldn't read too much into the language.  I mean his phrasing makes sense the way he said it given the events he was discussing were past tense as in what he brought to the team this past season after we traded for him.  Beane was clearly talking about the impact he made, which was in the past, hence the past tense type phrasing.

 

Now there is no ignoring the Bills cap situation and the cap savings, but Bills also gave up a quality pick to get him that felt like it was more than a 1 year rental.  We also have big question marks in our secondary as it is with Hyde gone, Tre coming off a 2nd major leg injury (potential cap casualty cut himself), Benford oft battling injuries, and Elam still unproven.  Then there is Poyer who himself could be cap casualty.  

 

So if I had to guess today, I still think the more plausible scenario is they extend Rasul and let him stabilize the cornerback position.  I wouldn't be that surprised if they did cut him for cap savings, but I think between what we gave up for him and the value he showed on the field, keeping him on an extension makes more sense to this secondary.  

 

I would cut Tre before I would cut Rasul, and I love Tre, but 2 major leg injuries and still have no idea how he responds to this second one gives me less confidence than if Rasul was out there. 

 

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

4. They are not going to use their 1st round pick on a safety. Beane was pretty clear that at that spot he thinks about smarts and study habits and not 40 times and athletic profiles. I think that screamed to be they are going to take a guy who is good on tape not good in shorts. 

 

Yeah, I think you nailed that description based on what he said.  

 

7 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

5. Don't expect them to draft OL early and do expect them to extend Dion. I also would not be at all surprised if they extend Spencer Brown before the season. He seemed very happy with the situation up front. 

 

I totally agree on this too as I do think Spencer gets extended, and OL I think would only come into play late in the draft, if at all, given how this group played last year and how many other holes this team needs to fill.

Edited February 28 by Alphadawg7

[Cash]

5 hours ago, SCBills said:

 

Yea, it's not a slam dunk either way.  For me, I think this team just needs to get younger in certain spots.  I'm fine paying 10M'ish for a good 30 year old pass rusher or a bit more for a younger wide receiver on a 1-2 year deal.  I'm not really that interested in paying 10M to a 30 year old cornerback, and I'm definitely not interested in making a multi-year commitment to a 30 year old cornerback.  

 

But Douglas is a good player and it's a shame that he was probably at 50% in the KC game.  Floyd disappeared down the stretch, so for me, he's a thank you for your service but let's see what else we can do on the DL. 

 

 

 

Totally see what you're saying and partially agree.  But 30 isn't 35, and Douglas was such a spark to the defense that I'd prefer to have him back if possible.  Under McDermott, even when our defense is playing really well, not everyone on it has that "big play" mentality.  By which I mean, actively looking to make a play rather than trying to not give up a big play.  (As an aside, Jairus Byrd had some great comments on that back in the day, with the gist being that when the ball's in the air, he views it as his ball, not the receiver's ball.)  You don't need everyone on the defense to have that mentality, but I think you need a few leaders to have it for sure, and Douglas showed it big-time last year.

 

I seem to be in a very small minority, but I also wonder if Benford might move to S this offseason.  I know he's been good at CB, and I'm fine with him staying at CB.  But it seems to my amateur eyes that his strengths at CB would also be major assets at S.  His size is great for what the Bills usually have at S, too.  I just wonder if he's a good CB who could be an elite S.  Both Hyde and Poyer were originally drafted at CB...

[Malazan]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Nope. That $6.7m is money that we never pay if we cut him. It is the unguaranteed portion of this year's salary. 

 

It isn't that I'm mad at Von. Not at all. It is that I genuinely think he is finished. Watching him last year was painful even watching him move let alone try and rush. He had two nice plays vs the Steelers - that is true - and I'm suddenly asked to believe that is proof he is back. I'd love to be wrong, but I think he is toast. My guess is he ends up replacing AJE as basically the passing downs only defensive end in 2024 and ends up with 4 or 5 sacks maximum. I think, sadly, it was one serious injury too far for a guy his age.

 

It is more advantageous to cut him next offseason. They suffer a much higher penalty in 2025 cutting him this year than they do in in 2026 cutting him next year (Post-June). The total dead cap + this year cap hit of keeping him and cutting him in 2025 is not much more than the total dead cap of cutting him this year.

 

Personally, I think keeping him and hoping that he can provide something at some point in the season makes more sense. The injury he suffered tends to take more than year for younger guys to recover fully and achieve previous ability.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

What is your rationale for cutting Morse when he can be restructured capturing 2/3 of the savings for cutting him?  Bates has yet to prove he is a better player, but he is a great insurance policy for the OG and C.  Why weaken a line that player well last year as a group?

 

He is almost 32 years old and plays arguably the 2nd least important/easiest to fill position on offense. It's time to get younger and cheaper at spots like that. Bates is a capable center, Alec Anderson looked good in preseason last year, and it's an easy position to fill on day 3 of the draft.

 

I would keep Morse for $3 million this season and not a penny more, and with no ramifications in future years. That's equivalent to his dead cap hit. Anything more than that I'll take the $8.5 million in savings.

 

Edited February 28 by HappyDays

[BananaB]

I think Beane wants to move onto a younger team but I don’t see McD letting it happen. He loves his vets and values experience. Doesn’t matter if the guy is washed and can’t make a play, as long as he understands his job. 

Edited February 28 by BananaB

[Warriorspikes51]

13 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He is almost 32 years old and plays arguably the 2nd least important/easiest to fill position on offense. It's time to get younger and cheaper at spots like that. Bates is a capable center, Alec Anderson looked good in preseason last year, and it's an easy position to fill on day 3 of the draft.

 

I would keep Morse for $3 million this season and not a penny more, and with no ramifications in future years. That's equivalent to his dead cap hit. Anything more than that I'll take the $8.5 million in savings.

 

Morse seems like one of the best and most logical leaders on team when I hear him speak.  Keep him and figure a way to bring his $ down for this year

[Aussie Joe]

Some comments on Douglas age…

 

He is only five months older than Tre with a lot less serious injury baggage 

 

He doesnt turn 30 until the Eve  of the season …so if he has another two years here then we are talking about his age 30 and 31 years … 

 

 

 

 

 

Edited February 28 by Aussie Joe

[BillsFanForever19]

29 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

He is almost 32 years old and plays arguably the 2nd least important/easiest to fill position on offense. It's time to get younger and cheaper at spots like that. Bates is a capable center, Alec Anderson looked good in preseason last year, and it's an easy position to fill on day 3 of the draft.

 

I would keep Morse for $3 million this season and not a penny more, and with no ramifications in future years. That's equivalent to his dead cap hit. Anything more than that I'll take the $8.5 million in savings.

 

Yeah, I don't see Morse being cut. I'm sure they'll approach him to do something to get his number down and I'm sure he'll be open to it, just like he was last season.

 

But Beane on multiple occasions with different interviews mentioned that he was thrilled with the OL last season and that he felt it was the best he's had there since he's been here. I don't think he wants to mess with that continuity in any way this season.

 

Maybe he Drafts a guy in the mid rounds with an eye towards next year. But with the way he talked, I'd be very surprised if he changed the Starting 5 at all.

 

8 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Some comments on Douglas age…

 

He is only six months older than Tre with a lot less serious injury baggage 

 

He doesnt turn 30 until the Eve  of the season …so if he has another two years here then we are talking about his age 30 and 31 years … 

 

One thing that people don't take into account when discussing Douglas' age is the fact that he was a very late bloomer.

 

He didn't become the Douglas he is today until the past couple seasons. And he spent a good number of years before then as a Reserve or Practice Squad guy, not getting much or any usage there. Thus negating wear and tear.

 

There's always the concern that as he really gets up there in age that he'll have a more natural loss of step. But he's not the standard 30 year old player.

Edited February 28 by BillsFanForever19

[Warriorspikes51]

4 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

Yeah, I don't see Morse being cut. I'm sure they'll approach him to do something to get his number down and I'm sure he'll be open to it, just like he was last season.

 

But Beane on multiple occasions with different interviews mentioned that he was thrilled with the OL last season and that he felt it was the best he's had there since he's been there. I don't think he wants to mess with it in any way this season.

 

Maybe he Drafts a guy in the mid rounds with an eye towards next year. But with the way he talked, I'd be very surprised if he changed the Starting 5 at all.

 

 

One thing that people don't take into account when discussing Douglas' age is the fact that he was a very late bloomer.

 

He didn't become the Douglas he is today until the past couple seasons. And he spent a good number of years before then as a Reserve or Practice Squad guy, not getting much or any usage there. Thus negating wear and tear.

 

There's always the concern that as he really gets up there in age that he'll have a more natural loss of step. But he's not the standard 30 year old player.

Yes! We’ve done it!  Found common ground!

 

1 out of 500 discussions🤣

[Mat68]

7 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

Thanks, Gunner.

 

I agree about Beane.  He says a lot in these interviews, and often just a little bit more than he intended. 

 

Too bad about Douglas, because he was such a solid addition.  But I agree that Beane using past tense probably means something, and the cap savings is simply to important to pass up.  Peeling the onion one layer deeper, Douglas leaving probably says something about their thoughts about White and Elam.  Benford's got one side, but the other side is still open.  And they always seem to take a corner take in the late rounds.

 

Receiver is no news.  Either in free agency or the draft, there's a quality receiver coming from somewhere.  And what Beane said about skillset isn't surprising, either.  That's how they got to Kincaid.   It makes much more sense to put the targets on the field and then design the offense to utilize their strengths than to evaluate the 2023 receiver room, decide what skills are missing, and search for those skills.  

 

Safety is an interesting position.  I don't think you meant literally "not good in shorts."  At every position, in their world, the guy has to be "good enough" in shorts.  Too slow is just too slow.  But I get your point and agree with it.   In McDermott's D, the safeties have to understand everything and process quickly.  If you think about how much geography a player has to think about at the moment the ball is snapped, tackles have the least and safeties have the most.  Players at both positions have to think fast, but the safeties have a lot more to think about.  I watched a few minutes of the the Lions and Chargers from week 10 yesterday.  Goff hit St. Brown on a deep crosser, and the replay Romo pointed out how the safety broke in to respond to an underneath threat.  It was very easy to see how no amount of physical talent was going to make up for the wrong decision as the receivers came off the line.  It's also what drives all of us crazy when a Bills safety or corner is there for the tackle but not close enough to break up the pass - at DB, McDermott values brains over closing speed.  The difference is obvious when we compare a corner like Dane Jackson to a linebacker like Dorian Williams.  

 

The problem with drafting a safety in the first round is where you're picking.  The truly special talent, good brain and good in shorts, never lasts late into the first round.  The difference between the guys who are left that you might take in the first round and the guy you can get in the later rounds just isn't that great in terms of his contribution to the team.  

 

Thanks for the report. 

I think the guys they lean to for saftey can be had day 3 imo.  I think the kid from Utah Viki has Mcbeane written all over him.   Played tailback because they had too many injuries and ran for 100 plus yards.  

[HappyDays]

13 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

Yeah, I don't see Morse being cut. I'm sure they'll approach him to do something to get his number down and I'm sure he'll be open to it, just like he was last season.

 

But Beane on multiple occasions with different interviews mentioned that he was thrilled with the OL last season and that he felt it was the best he's had there since he's been here. I don't think he wants to mess with that continuity in any way this season.

 

Not sure what Beane will do. But Morse during his end of season presser said something to the effect of "I would love to be back if they'll have me." That caught my attention. I can't imagine a player under contract would say that unless they had an inkling that a possible release was in their future.