Takeaways from Beane's Combine pressers

[TheyCallMeAndy]

Don’t read too much into the Douglas comments, the odds are very good that they are negotiating some kind of contract change right now and Douglas may be holding steady at 9m (and he earned it last year). Wouldn’t be a good move for contract negotiations if he came out and said they would do whatever to keep him. 

[finn]

55 minutes ago, mrags said:

If we let go of Douglas this staff is outright ridiculous. He was our best defender down the stretch last year. And it wasn’t even close. 

Yes, he was terrific. But he did have some odd moments of standing around. At least twice I wondered, "Who in the hell is 31?" Also, Elam's upside is pretty high. He's got length, size, speed, athleticism, and (we're told) a solid work ethic. You would think his weaknesses--tackling and zone awareness--could be learned. But busts do happen. Anyone old enough to remember James Williams, the Bills' fast, athletic 1990 first-round pick at cornerback? 

 

Anyway, yeah, a tough call. If Beane extends Douglas, he'll have a solid corner and good depth for at least two or three years, albeit an older one (Douglas will be 30 in August). But his salary cap problems deepen. If he doesn't extend him, he saves a nice chunk of change but is gambling that either Elam or White can hold up that side. 

 

Given that it's a lean year and we have no DL depth, I would understand if Beane rolled the dice. 

[D. L. Hot-Flamethrower]

3 minutes ago, TheyCallMeAndy said:

Don’t read too much into the Douglas comments, the odds are very good that they are negotiating some kind of contract change right now and Douglas may be holding steady at 9m (and he earned it last year). Wouldn’t be a good move for contract negotiations if he came out and said they would do whatever to keep him. 

They're not cutting a guy who played like he did, traded a 3rd and 5th for, and are thin already at the position. You can make the Cap Savings argument about a ton of guys. Overanalyzing the comments is all this is.

[Shaw66]

41 minutes ago, jahnyc said:

Unlike Bernard, there have been a couple of negative things that have been evident about the play of Elam in his first two years.  First, Elam seems to have a tendency to hold receivers and take penalties for it.  We even heard about it in training camp updates and summaries.  Second, he is not a sure tackler, which I thought was particularly important in McD's defense (and any defense).  I hope I am wrong, and Elam does seem to have an ability to make big plays (i.e., interceptions).

Douglas was in the league for four seasons before he was showing enough to become a regular starter.   I just don't see why anyone should conclude that Elam won't be able to show the same improvement over four seasons.   That's particularly true when he was hampered by injury in his second season.   

 

It's the curse of draft position.  If Elam had been drafted in the fifth round, people would be calling him useful depth.  But he was drafted in the first round, so people treat him as an unequivocal failure.  It just doesn't make sense to do give up on Elam and thankfully, McDermott understands that.  

 

 

[OldTimer1960]

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Brandon Beane is always worth a listen because he is a straight shooter and sometimes probably tells you more than he should. Having listened to his presser and his huddle with the Buffalo media here are my takeaways:

 

1. They are going to add a receiver early but it doesn't have to be a specific type and he doesn't have to have a specific skillset. They are going to evaluate all these guys in the round and the one they take will be because they think he is the best available at their spot and the value matches the round;

 

2. Von Miller is on the team in 2024. I know we all suspected that anyway, some of us hoped it wasn't necessarily the case but the Bills are doubling down;

 

3. Rasul Douglas is not the absolute lock to be back I think most of us assumed. He twice went immediately to past tense when talking about him "I liked what he brought to our defense" and "it was a pleasure getting to know him." Now neither of those definitely mean he is gone, but there are ways of making those same points without phrasing in the past tense and as I said at the start sometimes Beane tells you more than he means to. It definitely made my ears prick up. He is almost $10m of pure savings with zero dead cap if they cut him. I'm not saying I expect them to but I thought the tense he used was interesting. 

 

4. They are not going to use their 1st round pick on a safety. Beane was pretty clear that at that spot he thinks about smarts and study habits and not 40 times and athletic profiles. I think that screamed to be they are going to take a guy who is good on tape not good in shorts. 

 

5. Don't expect them to draft OL early and do expect them to extend Dion. I also would not be at all surprised if they extend Spencer Brown before the season. He seemed very happy with the situation up front. 

If they release Douglas, seems like they will need to re-sign Dane Jackson.  They can *hope* that Elam shows massive improvement, but they should not count on that.  If they let Douglas and Jackson walk, they’ll need a CB sooner than later in the draft.

[Einstein]

13 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

Iirc Tre is coming off an Achilles injury, could be wrong but that’s what I thought was his injury, I Hope it wasn’t severe if that came be a thing, 

 

Aren’t Achilles injury a worse prognosis than ACL?

 

I don’t recall where, but I do recall reading that that at some point.

[dpberr]

I'm ok if the Bills part ways with Rasul Douglas.  

 

He probably has a year of outstanding play left at CB at his age, but he will want a contract and the compensation that exceeds that year.  The Bills don't want to be paying for that one great year for three seasons, and they don't need yet another older player who is a fantastic player for "most" of the season but fades come playoff time because his body is just out of gas. 

 

I think all players are struggling with this longer NFL season, but it is especially harder to be anywhere near peak performance come playoff time the older you get. 

 

I think a lot of 30+ year old players will get used to the fact that their market is evolving to 1-year deals where they join a team in November/December for playoff runs.

 

 

Edited February 28 by dpberr

[Magox]

I get the sense that McD wants to move the defense to having more man coverage schemes.    I think they saw what happened with Philly the year before last and Baltimore and KC this year and are seeing that with the right players these schemes can make it very difficult on offenses, especially when you incorporate blitz packages.

[SCBills]

1 hour ago, juno999 said:

Not to mention we wasted a 3rd rd pick for basically a rental

 

We got a pick back..  If we didn't get destroyed by the injury bug, this team had the ingredients to win the Super Bowl.  

 

I'm always fine swapping those types of picks for a half year rental of a player like Rasul Douglas mid-season if we have a shot at winning it all. 

 

 

Edited February 28 by SCBills

[Logic]

I'd be quite surprised if they cut Rasul Douglas, particularly after the cap number wound up being higher than Beane and co. expected.

If he was a free agent and the Bills were just choosing not to re-sign him, then I'd understand. But given that he's under contract for 2024 for an extremely reasonable $9.9million, and given that the Bills gave up a pretty good draft pick for him, and given that he was their best defender in 2023...it would seem absolutely crazy to me to just cut him outright.

I fully believe that they may want Elam to see the field more, but this regime has always been about "the best players play" and "everyone earns their spot", and it's hard to argue that anyone in our secondary has EARNED playing time over Rasul Douglas.

The ONLY way I could see them moving on from Douglas is if they've committed to drastically change the way they play their corners, and to move to more of a man-based scheme. But I doubt that's the case, because then they'd be relying on a twice-seriously-injured Tre White and a still-unproven Kaiir Elam, as Benford is also not a fit in a man scheme.

I say Douglas is far more likely to be extended long term than to be cut, and I will be seriously surprised if he IS cut.

[Cash]

14 minutes ago, finn said:

Yes, he was terrific. But he did have some odd moments of standing around. At least twice I wondered, "Who in the hell is 31?" Also, Elam's upside is pretty high. He's got length, size, speed, athleticism, and (we're told) a solid work ethic. You would think his weaknesses--tackling and zone awareness--could be learned. But busts do happen. Anyone old enough to remember James Williams, the Bills' fast, athletic 1990 first-round pick at cornerback? 

 

Anyway, yeah, a tough call. If Beane extends Douglas, he'll have a solid corner and good depth for at least two or three years, albeit an older one (Douglas will be 30 in August). But his salary cap problems deepen. If he doesn't extend him, he saves a nice chunk of change but is gambling that either Elam or White can hold up that side. 

 

Given that it's a lean year and we have no DL depth, I would understand if Beane rolled the dice. 

 

Oh yeah.  AKA J.D. Williams.  He's the guy who changed his number in the hopes that officials would forget who he was, because he thought he was typecast as a guy who commits a lot of penalties.  (It didn't work.)  He either went from 29 to 31 or vice versa, I think.

[SCBills]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'd be quite surprised if they cut Rasul Douglas, particularly after the cap number wound up being higher than Beane and co. expected.

If he was a free agent and the Bills were just choosing not to re-sign him, then I'd understand. But given that he's under contract for 2024 for an extremely reasonable $9.9million, and given that the Bills gave up a pretty good draft pick for him, and given that he was their best defender in 2023...it would seem absolutely crazy to me to just cut him outright.

I fully believe that they may want Elam to see the field more, but this regime has always been about "the best players play" and "everyone earns their spot", and it's hard to argue that anyone in our secondary has EARNED playing time over Rasul Douglas.

The ONLY way I could see them moving on from Douglas is if they've committed to drastically change the way they play their corners, and to move to more of a man-based scheme. But I doubt that's the case, because then they'd be relying on a twice-seriously-injured Tre White and a still-unproven Kaiir Elam, as Benford is also not a fit in a man scheme.

I say Douglas is far more likely to be extended long term than to be cut, and I will be seriously surprised if he IS cut.

 

I think you're correct in terms of how this organization has functioned.

 

However, we're entering a new era.  One where they won't have the luxury of 6-12M vets all over the roster. 

 

Does the staff have more faith in a young player like Kaiir Elam being able to hold down CB opposite Christian Benford in Year 3, with 10M in saving to be used elsewhere or do they have more faith in going young on the DL or at WR. 

 

Would you rather have Rasul Douglas or Hollywood Brown?  Rasul Douglas or another Pass Rusher?

[Cash]

2 minutes ago, Logic said:

I'd be quite surprised if they cut Rasul Douglas, particularly after the cap number wound up being higher than Beane and co. expected.

If he was a free agent and the Bills were just choosing not to re-sign him, then I'd understand. But given that he's under contract for 2024 for an extremely reasonable $9.9million, and given that the Bills gave up a pretty good draft pick for him, and given that he was their best defender in 2023...it would seem absolutely crazy to me to just cut him outright.

I fully believe that they may want Elam to see the field more, but this regime has always been about "the best players play" and "everyone earns their spot", and it's hard to argue that anyone in our secondary has EARNED playing time over Rasul Douglas.

The ONLY way I could see them moving on from Douglas is if they've committed to drastically change the way they play their corners, and to move to more of a man-based scheme. But I doubt that's the case, because then they'd be relying on a twice-seriously-injured Tre White and a still-unproven Kaiir Elam, as Benford is also not a fit in a man scheme.

I say Douglas is far more likely to be extended long term than to be cut, and I will be seriously surprised if he IS cut.

 

It'll be interesting to see how it plays out, that's for sure.  The only prediction I'm comfortable making is that we won't get any meaningful contributions from Tre this year - or at least for most of the year.  Based on how tentative he played coming back from his ACL tear, and knowing an Achilles tear has an even longer recovery period.  I don't know if his future lies at CB or S, or if he'll ever get back to a "Tre White" level of play.  But I'd be suprised if he's a plus player in September or October (probably even November) this year.  I'm hoping the Bills consider that in their contract negotiations with Tre.  I love the guy, and ideally would like to see him back, but it feels like this is a rehab year, not a Pro Bowl year.  You can't pay a guy what he's making to rehab.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

1 hour ago, jahnyc said:

Between Beane's presser and Tasker's views on the secondary, I have a feeling that Douglas will be released for cap savings.  I think it will be a mistake, particularly if the Bills think Elam can be a starter at CB.

I don’t think this board will like it, but I think they are going to draft a CB in the 2nd round. I am personally not against it as long as they go WR in 1. 

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, Nephilim17 said:

Thanks, @GunnerBill. So I assume no talk of DE (other than keeping Von) or DT, interesting.

 

He sort of half suggested they want AJE back because he talked about "it only takes one team to be willing to overpay a guy and you lose 'em" and the only guy I could see that happening with is Epenesa. He also hinted another dust settles June move like Leonard Floyd could be in the offing to fill that unit out. 

[Logic]

7 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I think you're correct in terms of how this organization has functioned.

 

However, we're entering a new era.  One where they won't have the luxury of 6-12M vets all over the roster. 

 

Does the staff have more faith in a young player like Kaiir Elam being able to hold down CB opposite Christian Benford in Year 3, with 10M in saving to be used elsewhere or do they have more faith in going young on the DL or at WR. 

 

Would you rather have Rasul Douglas or Hollywood Brown?  Rasul Douglas or another Pass Rusher?

Definitely a fair and reasonable way of looking at it. 

That said, my answer to both of the questions you posed is "I'd rather have Douglas".

 

Given that Elam and Benford aren't making much right now and Tre White is no lock to even be on this roster in 2024, I view $9.9million as a sound and reasonable investment in the cornerback room.

In the case of WR and EDGE, we already have big money tied up there (Diggs and Von, respectively), so I'd rather bolster those positions either through the draft or via low-cost bargain FAs.

[Cash]

7 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

I think you're correct in terms of how this organization has functioned.

 

However, we're entering a new era.  One where they won't have the luxury of 6-12M vets all over the roster. 

 

Does the staff have more faith in a young player like Kaiir Elam being able to hold down CB opposite Christian Benford in Year 3, with 10M in saving to be used elsewhere or do they have more faith in going young on the DL or at WR. 

 

Would you rather have Rasul Douglas or Hollywood Brown?  Rasul Douglas or another Pass Rusher?

 

1.) Probably Rasul Douglas.  I don't think Hollywood Brown is that good, and he's a risk to be a malcontent if he's not playing enough.

2.) That's a tough one.  Do I know if the pass rusher will be any good?  Floyd was an awesome signing this year, but even then our pass rush was invisible in the playoffs.  If the choice is between Rasual Douglas and "good pass rush in the playoffs", I want the latter.  But I honestly don't think that option is realistically on the table, so I think I'd take my chances on having a good and deep back 7?  To some extent I think we should start defending Mahomes in the playoffs by spying him with 3 guys and rushing zero.  I'm just demoralized at this point.

 

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

 

He sort of half suggested they want AJE back because he talked about "it only takes one team to be willing to overpay a guy and you lose 'em" and the only guy I could see that happening with is Epenesa. He also hinted another dust settles June move like Leonard Floyd could be in the offing to fill that unit out. 

 

Would make sense.  Similar to Floyd, if there's a proven vet out there, we offer an opportunity to play and contend for a title.  As long as the money is competitive, there's real appeal there.  And in general, I wouldn't be shocked to see us sign a guy or two to those 1-year "prove it" deals.  Agents know that big playoff moments get guys paid, and we're very consistent about being involved in big playoff moments.  (And just big moments in general - the last few years, we've been on the losing side of the game of the year pretty consistently.)

[JohnBonhamRocks]

You don’t give up that draft capital for a rental.

[BuffaloBillyG]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

I've heard rumblings that Butler and McDermott didn't see eye to eye on Elam's usage. Butler didn't get along with Elam. That may be one reason he left. And it makes me wonder if McDermott is going to force the issue with Elam this year which would make Douglas somewhat redundant.

I may be in the minority, but I do feel like Elam could do well with extended snaps. Even in limited work he flashed a bit after coming off IR. I don't know if his play will ever reflect his draft status but we will never know that if we don't let him on the field. At this point the kid needs some real NFL week to week experience. 

 

It's weird to me though that if Butler and McD had different opinions on Elam that McDermott didn't over rule and play the kid. I thought he was some sort of control freak? 

[SCBills]

8 minutes ago, Cash said:

 

1.) Probably Rasul Douglas.  I don't think Hollywood Brown is that good, and he's a risk to be a malcontent if he's not playing enough.

2.) That's a tough one.  Do I know if the pass rusher will be any good?  Floyd was an awesome signing this year, but even then our pass rush was invisible in the playoffs.  If the choice is between Rasual Douglas and "good pass rush in the playoffs", I want the latter.  But I honestly don't think that option is realistically on the table, so I think I'd take my chances on having a good and deep back 7?  To some extent I think we should start defending Mahomes in the playoffs by spying him with 3 guys and rushing zero.  I'm just demoralized at this point.

 

 

 

Yea, it's not a slam dunk either way.  For me, I think this team just needs to get younger in certain spots.  I'm fine paying 10M'ish for a good 30 year old pass rusher or a bit more for a younger wide receiver on a 1-2 year deal.  I'm not really that interested in paying 10M to a 30 year old cornerback, and I'm definitely not interested in making a multi-year commitment to a 30 year old cornerback.  

 

But Douglas is a good player and it's a shame that he was probably at 50% in the KC game.  Floyd disappeared down the stretch, so for me, he's a thank you for your service but let's see what else we can do on the DL. 

 

 

Edited February 28 by SCBills