Takeaways from Beane's Combine pressers

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

First, the Bills were 8th in the league in yards passing per game, 7th in TDs. 

 

Yeah I'm just not impressed by 8th or 7th. With Jared Goff as your QB that's an impressive ranking. With Josh Allen it's below par. And I don't even care about the rankings that much, the schedule and different game situations have a big effect on that.

 

It is a fact though that each of the past few seasons has featured a midseason slump from the passing offense which has directly contributed to us missing out on the #1 seed. Those slumps typically have featured below par production from the WRs. This year against the Chiefs in the playoffs we got nothing from our WRs other than Shakir. Again this directly contributed to us losing the game. Enough is enough.

 

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

After all, it's pretty clear that what works in the NFL these days is having a lot of guys on the field who can execute an offense that attacks what the defense gives them.

 

I couldn't agree more. That's why I'm a proponent of overstocking the WR room for the first time since 2020 when the passing offense was clearly the best in the Josh Allen era.

 

I've said before that adding pass catching talent is the easiest means to making a significant improvement on the team. Diggs, Beasley, and Brown all had career years here. Kincaid came in as a rookie and immediately broke a couple franchise records. What have all our depth DL signings amounted to? Nothing meaningful. With Allen as our QB we should have an offense capable of out scoring any team through sheer firepower. And we should be able to overcome a few bumps and bruises to our WR corps in the middle of the season.

 

Edited February 29 by HappyDays

[MasterStrategist]

1 hour ago, Shaw66 said:

Hey, Hap -  You've always got interesting takes on things, and this WR vs. dline comment is another.  It's compelling, but I'm not sure it's right.  Might be, and I can't prove it's wrong, but I look at a different way. 

 

First, the Bills were 8th in the league in yards passing per game, 7th in TDs.  20 yards per game behind the Dolphins, 15 behind the Lions, who were #2, and 2 yards per game behind the Chiefs.  My suspicion (not original) is that Diggs was injured for the second half of the season; had he played up to his usual standards, the Bills would have had 10 more yards per game, on average, for the season.  That tells me that there is not a massive hole in the receiving corps.  It's hard to say that the Bills have had a serious negative impact on the passing game because of what you consider an under-allocation of resources to the position.  I say this because unless they add the replacement for Diggs in the first round and he turns into an immediate stud, no one should expect that the Bills are going to get more than 800-900 yards out of their number 2.  If that's the case, the Bills aren't far away.  Factor in likely increased production out of Kincaid, and I just don't see a huge hole.  

 

Second, I'm not saying the Bills don't need receiving help; ideally, the Bills get a #1 receiver in the first round, pair him with Diggs for a year or two, and then move on from Diggs.  However, if they don't hit a homerun and have the luxury of starting two #1s in 2024, they don't need a lot of talent to continue in the top 10 in passing or even move up into the top 5.  I think it depends much more on Brady than on getting some stud to be another target - again, I'd welcome the stud, but I don't see that he's crucial.  

 

Third, you clearly have a different philosophy about how to build a successful team.  Beane and McDermott are all in on the defensive line rotation and getting pressure with four, and that philosophy therefore demands that resources go there.  That's eight players who need to be impactful, and that has a cost associated with it.  The Bills were 7th in passing yards allowed per game, second in TDs allowed, and fourth in sacks.  That's at least some evidence that the allocation of resources to the Dline makes sense.   I've always questioned the rotation, because by needing 8, it's difficult to allocate spending to a true stud in middle, and that's the kind of player who can have out-sized impact on games.  But as I say, I've been able to live with the rotation because it has gotten results.  

 

Finally (and back to #2), I think we all tend to look at the long term less critically and less thoroughly than McDermott and Beane do.  At this time of year, they're thinking a lot about the 2025 and 2026 roster as they consider their choices, because their intention is that the Bills will be good next season AND in the seasons beyond.  One of their big issues has to be who will be the #1 receiver in the future, and how are they going to fill the position?    One answer is exactly as you say - get that guy this year, hope he can be a solid #2 by mid-season, and get a free agent who can help in the draft pick isn't the guy, or isn't the guy yet.  But for all we know, McBeane see what works best for the long term is to plan to get that receiver in the 2025 draft.  They may already be considering how they can stockpile picks in order to trade up.  I don't have any idea, but I think there's more of a plan at work here than I can see.  

 

Having said that, what I hope to see in 2024 is a #2 receiver with decent deep speed, good route running ability, reliable hands.   I want a guy like Shakir but with better size.   He'll run routes better than Davis and will be a regular threat in the offense.  He doesn't have to be great; he has to be smart with enough speed.  After all, it's pretty clear that what works in the NFL these days is having a lot of guys on the field who can execute an offense that attacks what the defense gives them.  With the Cook/Allen run threat, the defense has to give up space elsewhere, and the Bills need a scheme (Brady) and the receivers (Diggs, Shakier, Kincaid, and one more) to attack that space.  

Completely agree, that you're stating facts about what we've done in recent past.

 

But, I think last year was a perfect example of Diggs having to play through injury because we had absolutely nobody to step up.  Davis down against Chiefs, and we were relying on Josh/ground attack to move the ball.  This offense will be next level/potentially elite with a 1st round WR and a 4th WR via FA. 

 

That's counting on 1st rounder panning out, but recent history has shown the top prospects contribute immediately (and this is a VERY deep class).  Kincaid/Cook/Shakir each taking a step forward.

 

I expect FA to fill holes on DL and depending if we cut Poyer, then a S.  We'd be smart to cut some guys, ie: Harty, Morse, Poyer, Tre and sign 1 starter at S, 1 WR (Wr4 type), and bring back Jones.  Use remaining cap on depth at DL.  Then WR 1st round, S or DE 2nd and 3rd, then depth at DT and RB later in draft.  Beane can restructure and maneuver some 1 year deals to "push" some cap to next couple years.

[Don Otreply]

16 hours ago, Gunsgoodtime said:

Plus a 6th for our free punter to Kc, plus Floyd's total loss of voided cap, the excuses go on and on to defend a team who has underachieved 

Actually I would say the team over achieved this past season, considering all the injuries to key personnel and others,  plus an OC that needed to be fired mid season, those injuries and the former OC are the reasons the team as a whole over achieved. How often does a team with those issues win their division and go to the playoffs? Your monocular view is flawed to a noticeable degree. 

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah I'm just not impressed by 8th or 7th. With Jared Goff as your QB that's an impressive ranking. With Josh Allen it's below par. And I don't even care about the rankings that much, the schedule and different game situations have a big effect on that.

 

It is a fact though that each of the past few seasons has featured a midseason slump from the passing offense which has directly contributed to us missing out on the #1 seed. Those slumps typically have featured below par production from the WRs. This year against the Chiefs in the playoffs we got nothing from our WRs other than Shakir. Again this directly contributed to us losing the game. Enough is enough.

 

 

I couldn't agree more. That's why I'm a proponent of overstocking the WR room for the first time since 2020 when the passing offense was clearly the best in the Josh Allen era.

 

I've said before that adding pass catching talent is the easiest means to making a significant improvement on the team. Diggs, Beasley, and Brown all had career years here. Kincaid came in as a rookie and immediately broke a couple franchise records. What have all our depth DL signings amounted to? Nothing meaningful. With Allen as our QB we should have an offense capable of out scoring any team through sheer firepower. And we should be able to overcome a few bumps and bruises to our WR corps in the middle of the season.

 

As usual, I don't disagree with much you have to say, except that you seem value talent over coaching, and I'm the opposite.   Assuming Diggs returns to form, a decent number two receiver will thrive in this offense IF Brady runs an effective passing game, as a play designer, a game planner, and an offensive game manager.  If Brady doesn't do that, I don't think it matters all that much how talented the #2 guy is.  At the end of the season, scheme wins out over talent.  

[Westside]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

No. Von. 

My apologies. I agree with that sentiment.

[billsfan89]

For once they don’t need to draft Oline early esp if Mitch is back for one more year I think they may need some mid round depth along the offensive line but no glaring holes for once.

 

I suspect the Bills will go WR round 1 and defensive line round 2. Then pretty much BPA the rest of the way. 

[QCity]

I think people are reading too much into the Douglas "past tense" quotes. And aside from the occasional slip-up, Beane isn't nearly the straight shooter many think he is.

[wettlaufer]

12 hours ago, eball said:

Sure, let’s cut one of the best players at his position — and one who fits this particular defense perfectly. That makes sense. 
 

 

There are no easy decisions here. But sure, your sarcasm is a really helpful contribution the discussion.

[Jay_Fixit]

I saw him mouth the words Michael Floyd.

[hondo in seattle]

On 2/28/2024 at 6:47 AM, Einstein said:

It may be the prudent move to let Douglas walk considering his age.

 

I just don’t know what our CB room is going to be like without him?

 

Tre coming off 2 ACL injuries, Benford who is often injured, and Elam?

 

Yikes.

 

In today's pass-happy NFL, it's good to have an elite secondary.  And I remember when we had one with Hyde and Poyer on the backend and Tre as one of the corners.  

 

I'm afraid we're going into the 2024 season with a secondary that's much less than elite with the safeties and Tre (if we even keep them) now beyond their prime.  Releasing Douglas doesn't help.  

 

Yikes, indeed.  

 

 

[eball]

1 hour ago, wettlaufer said:

 

There are no easy decisions here. But sure, your sarcasm is a really helpful contribution the discussion.

 

One very easy decision is not to suggest cutting an integral part of the defense who is under contract and in his prime.

 

[BillsFanForever19]

6 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I like your trade idea but don't believe he's worth a 3rd even for a 5th . Jalen Ramsey was traded for a 3rd last yr and in the off-season the price is lower for Douglas.

 

I mean, there's a big difference between getting a 3rd straight up vs. getting a 3rd when you're giving them a player AND a 5th.

 

Ramsey was also costing a LOT more money and cap space in the future and removing a lot of cap from the trading team, which factors into compensation.

 

A 3rd for Douglas and a 5th is the price we paid. There was at least one other team in on him when we did. Offseason or Midseason, I don't think the price would drop too terribly much. But whatever we can get, I'd much rather see us get some kind of return as giving up a 3rd for just a half of a season of play is a little rough.

[3rdand12]

21 hours ago, BillsFan130 said:

No I know, I was just responding to the comment where it said it would be ridiculous to get rid of Douglas.

 

The more I think about it, the more I think it's possible- especially if Douglas is asking for a massive extension and the bills can save 10 mil with 0 dead cap

 

My thought , is that we dont know what Beanes crystal ball is showing him
if he is healthy and we can fit him into the new cap, age considered. I hope Beane would

My confidence level in the secondary ( at this moment is low)  Due to age and contracts.
 Need to bring in some youth he can be coached up quickly I guess if Bills cannot spend on seasoned vet such as Rasul again.

21 hours ago, RyanC883 said:

CB in round 1 incoming. Don’t like it but if Douglas os gone and a top 3 CB is there I think it’s what happens.  

Bills dont pick CBs well currently. ex  Elam

So no to round 1 or 2. imho

WRS yes round 1 and two lol

[GoBills808]

On 2/28/2024 at 9:13 AM, HappyDays said:

 

I actually don't want Beane thinking like this. We have an extra $12.9 million to work with which is huge. But DON'T use that money to keep older players that he otherwise would have cut. I would still make the exact same cuts/restructures we would have made with the cap being at $242M like expected, and then use the $12.9M to sign a real difference maker in FA (specifically at WR or EDGE).

 

As an example I still want us to cut Morse. To me this a no brainer move. Ditto for White. I worry Beane will see the cap increase and think he can keep Morse/White, or hand out one of his never-a-good-idea paycuts. I hope he stays the course and uses the extra cap space wisely. Please don't use it as an excuse to just run it all back.

if this video is any indication you (and me) are going to be disappointed

 

 

[HurlyBurly51]

3 hours ago, QCity said:

I think people are reading too much into the Douglas "past tense" quotes. And aside from the occasional slip-up, Beane isn't nearly the straight shooter many think he is.

Absolutely!!  I can't believe how that interpretation has taken off.  Quite a stretch for a few words: "I liked what he brought to our defense" and "it was a pleasure getting to know him."  I guess he should have said "brings" not "brought" 😂  but at least he didn't say "it was a pleasure, nice knowing ya"😅

 

Just for the sake of another viewpoint, and that's all it is so take it for what it's worth, here's Buscaglia's take on Rasul: "Currently, the only thing guaranteed is Douglas on the team for 2024."  I'd put more stock in that over some wild internet speculation twisting his words.

[Beck Water]

On 2/28/2024 at 8:31 AM, HappyDays said:

 

I've heard rumblings that Butler and McDermott didn't see eye to eye on Elam's usage. Butler didn't get along with Elam. That may be one reason he left. And it makes me wonder if McDermott is going to force the issue with Elam this year which would make Douglas somewhat redundant.

 

I'm not sure Douglas is redundant even if Elam can start.  We really don't know what's going to be "up" with Tre White.  

He's got $16.4M cap if he plays, $10.4M dead cap if he's cut or traded.  Something like 40% of players don't return to play according to this (relatively limited) article, and those who do are apparently impacted the season following their injury.  $16.4M is a lot to pay for a guy who may be playing at a backup level.

 

It would be very un-Beane-like to give up a 3rd round pick (even with a 5th back) for a half-season rental.  Douglas has a $9.9M cap hit with no dead money.

 

I think we keep either or, but not both.

 

 

On 2/28/2024 at 7:55 AM, GunnerBill said:

3. Rasul Douglas is not the absolute lock to be back I think most of us assumed. He twice went immediately to past tense when talking about him "I liked what he brought to our defense" and "it was a pleasure getting to know him." Now neither of those definitely mean he is gone, but there are ways of making those same points without phrasing in the past tense and as I said at the start sometimes Beane tells you more than he means to. It definitely made my ears prick up. He is almost $10m of pure savings with zero dead cap if they cut him. I'm not saying I expect them to but I thought the tense he used was interesting. 

 

I think you might be reading in a bit much here, though I agree tone of voice, facial expression and etc might strengthen the significance you attach.  But if I'm talking about (say) meeting a new coworker that I just spent 3 months on a project with but am now not in the same building, I would say "it was a pleasure getting to know him" not "it is a pleasure getting to know him".  If we're talking about the defense we had last year, it may not be significant to say "I liked what he brought".  I'd have to listen to old Beane pressers where he talks about other players.

 

I don't think he's an absolute lock - I think it's Douglas OR White, either or not both.  But I'm not sure this is significant.

[wettlaufer]

2 hours ago, eball said:

 

One very easy decision is not to suggest cutting an integral part of the defense who is under contract and in his prime.

 

He has one year left. Like Douglas. Outside corner is more important than nickel in this transition year. Or are you suggesting starting Elam, as I have seen others do? The cuts are going to suck any way we slice it. This is more a choice between Douglas and Johnson and the difficult choice I would make is keep Johnson for the season. There are many variables here, not just the one of "he's good!"

[Cash]

10 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Yeah I'm just not impressed by 8th or 7th. With Jared Goff as your QB that's an impressive ranking. With Josh Allen it's below par. And I don't even care about the rankings that much, the schedule and different game situations have a big effect on that.

 

It is a fact though that each of the past few seasons has featured a midseason slump from the passing offense which has directly contributed to us missing out on the #1 seed. Those slumps typically have featured below par production from the WRs. This year against the Chiefs in the playoffs we got nothing from our WRs other than Shakir. Again this directly contributed to us losing the game. Enough is enough.

 

 

I couldn't agree more. That's why I'm a proponent of overstocking the WR room for the first time since 2020 when the passing offense was clearly the best in the Josh Allen era.

 

I've said before that adding pass catching talent is the easiest means to making a significant improvement on the team. Diggs, Beasley, and Brown all had career years here. Kincaid came in as a rookie and immediately broke a couple franchise records. What have all our depth DL signings amounted to? Nothing meaningful. With Allen as our QB we should have an offense capable of out scoring any team through sheer firepower. And we should be able to overcome a few bumps and bruises to our WR corps in the middle of the season.

 

I largely agree on this. Like I’ve said elsewhere on this board, I’m basically ready to punt on the idea of pressuring Mahomes in the playoffs. It’s been about 3 straight years of throwing huge resources at the pass rush with nothing to show for it in the playoffs. If those moves had panned out, they’d have been great, and maybe it just comes down to Von Miller getting hurt. But they didn’t pan out, and I think it’s fair to say we try a different tack at this point. 
 

Hap is right that we’ve had a mid season swoon for a while now, and since Daboll left we’ve had big consistency problems on offense. I think it’s fair to ask for a better overall coaching ouevre next year, especially on offense. And that could help a lot, regardless of talent. But I don’t think we’re gonna get Andy Reid level coaching anytime soon. And Spags is back for at least one more year. If we face them in the playoffs again, he’s gonna be willing to play press man and dare our guys to win those 1 on 1s. Up till recently, Diggs was that guy, and would feast when any DC tried that. Diggs wasn’t that guy down the stretch. The best case (plausible) scenario is that he was playing hurt. If that’s true, then we really need a second guy in case Diggs gets hurt again. The other plausible scenario is that Diggs is starting to show signs of slowing down. And if that’s true, we ESPECIALLY need another guy. 
 

Having said all that, I just want to point out that Leonard Floyd and Deonte Harty each signed for about $9 million, right? Some of the WR names I’ve seen thrown around could very easily be worse than Harty, and Floyd absolutely helped us win games. So I’m a little more agnostic on where those few veteran FA dollars should go. I just want them to be well spent in hindsight. 
 

My bottom line: I still think we need to commit significant resources to the offensive skill players, most notably at WR. Unless someone crazy falls all the way to us, our first draft pick should be a WR. And I’d have no problem if they went WR again in round 2 or 3.

 

Hypothetical question: What if we drafted a repeat of 2013? Basically meaning we draft this year’s versions of Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin? I’m not sure if I’d be happy or disappointed. 

 

[Nephilim17]

On 3/1/2024 at 12:37 AM, Cash said:

I largely agree on this. Like I’ve said elsewhere on this board, I’m basically ready to punt on the idea of pressuring Mahomes in the playoffs. It’s been about 3 straight years of throwing huge resources at the pass rush with nothing to show for it in the playoffs. If those moves had panned out, they’d have been great, and maybe it just comes down to Von Miller getting hurt. But they didn’t pan out, and I think it’s fair to say we try a different tack at this point. 
 

Hap is right that we’ve had a mid season swoon for a while now, and since Daboll left we’ve had big consistency problems on offense. I think it’s fair to ask for a better overall coaching ouevre next year, especially on offense. And that could help a lot, regardless of talent. But I don’t think we’re gonna get Andy Reid level coaching anytime soon. And Spags is back for at least one more year. If we face them in the playoffs again, he’s gonna be willing to play press man and dare our guys to win those 1 on 1s. Up till recently, Diggs was that guy, and would feast when any DC tried that. Diggs wasn’t that guy down the stretch. The best case (plausible) scenario is that he was playing hurt. If that’s true, then we really need a second guy in case Diggs gets hurt again. The other plausible scenario is that Diggs is starting to show signs of slowing down. And if that’s true, we ESPECIALLY need another guy. 
 

Having said all that, I just want to point out that Leonard Floyd and Deonte Harty each signed for about $9 million, right? Some of the WR names I’ve seen thrown around could very easily be worse than Harty, and Floyd absolutely helped us win games. So I’m a little more agnostic on where those few veteran FA dollars should go. I just want them to be well spent in hindsight. 
 

My bottom line: I still think we need to commit significant resources to the offensive skill players, most notably at WR. Unless someone crazy falls all the way to us, our first draft pick should be a WR. And I’d have no problem if they went WR again in round 2 or 3.

 

Hypothetical question: What if we drafted a repeat of 2013? Basically meaning we draft this year’s versions of Robert Woods and Marquise Goodwin? I’m not sure if I’d be happy or disappointed. 

 

Harty's deal was 9.5 million but for two years. Floyd's was up to $9 million for one year, based on incentives. Vastly different deals.

[John from Riverside]

On 2/28/2024 at 6:47 AM, Einstein said:

It may be the prudent move to let Douglas walk considering his age.

 

I just don’t know what our CB room is going to be like without him?

 

Tre coming off 2 ACL injuries, Benford who is often injured, and Elam?

 

Yikes.

I would not do this Rasoul Douglas is playing at a very high-level extend him