Takeaways from Beane's Combine pressers

[GunnerBill]

Brandon Beane is always worth a listen because he is a straight shooter and sometimes probably tells you more than he should. Having listened to his presser and his huddle with the Buffalo media here are my takeaways:

 

1. They are going to add a receiver early but it doesn't have to be a specific type and he doesn't have to have a specific skillset. They are going to evaluate all these guys in the round and the one they take will be because they think he is the best available at their spot and the value matches the round;

 

2. Von Miller is on the team in 2024. I know we all suspected that anyway, some of us hoped it wasn't necessarily the case but the Bills are doubling down;

 

3. Rasul Douglas is not the absolute lock to be back I think most of us assumed. He twice went immediately to past tense when talking about him "I liked what he brought to our defense" and "it was a pleasure getting to know him." Now neither of those definitely mean he is gone, but there are ways of making those same points without phrasing in the past tense and as I said at the start sometimes Beane tells you more than he means to. It definitely made my ears prick up. He is almost $10m of pure savings with zero dead cap if they cut him. I'm not saying I expect them to but I thought the tense he used was interesting. 

 

4. They are not going to use their 1st round pick on a safety. Beane was pretty clear that at that spot he thinks about smarts and study habits and not 40 times and athletic profiles. I think that screamed to be they are going to take a guy who is good on tape not good in shorts. 

 

5. Don't expect them to draft OL early and do expect them to extend Dion. I also would not be at all surprised if they extend Spencer Brown before the season. He seemed very happy with the situation up front. 

[jahnyc]

Between Beane's presser and Tasker's views on the secondary, I have a feeling that Douglas will be released for cap savings.  I think it will be a mistake, particularly if the Bills think Elam can be a starter at CB.

[HappyDays]

33 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

Rasul Douglas is not the absolute lock to be back I think most of us assumed. He twice went immediately to past tense when talking about him "I liked what he brought to our defense" and "it was a pleasure getting to know him." Now neither of those definitely mean he is gone, but there are ways of making those same points without phrasing in the past tense and as I said at the start sometimes Beane tells you more than he means to. It definitely made my ears prick up. He is almost $10m of pure savings with zero dead cap if they cut him. I'm not saying I expect them to but I thought the tense he used was interesting. 

 

I've heard rumblings that Butler and McDermott didn't see eye to eye on Elam's usage. Butler didn't get along with Elam. That may be one reason he left. And it makes me wonder if McDermott is going to force the issue with Elam this year which would make Douglas somewhat redundant.

[mrags]

If we let go of Douglas this staff is outright ridiculous. He was our best defender down the stretch last year. And it wasn’t even close. 

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, mrags said:

If we let go of Douglas this staff is outright ridiculous. He was our best defender down the stretch last year. And it wasn’t even close. 

 

Generally I agree that Douglas was very good for us last year and I have been a proponent of extending him for cap relief this year. That being said I won't be upset with any 30+ year old player Beane decides to move on from this offseason. We have to force young players onto the field one way or another. We've pushed the youth rebuild off for far too long.

[Einstein]

It may be the prudent move to let Douglas walk considering his age.

 

I just don’t know what our CB room is going to be like without him?

 

Tre coming off 2 ACL injuries, Benford who is often injured, and Elam?

 

Yikes.

[The Jokeman]

I agree letting Douglas go is foolish. With question marks in the secondary of Hyde's return, White's availability etc. having something that was positive should be kept. For the very reason we don't have a replacement on the current roster, for if we did we wouldn't have traded for him to begin with. Now if they don't want to extend him I can understand that more but he's under contract for 2024 and I say let him stay and play. 

[Shaw66]

Thanks, Gunner.

 

I agree about Beane.  He says a lot in these interviews, and often just a little bit more than he intended. 

 

Too bad about Douglas, because he was such a solid addition.  But I agree that Beane using past tense probably means something, and the cap savings is simply to important to pass up.  Peeling the onion one layer deeper, Douglas leaving probably says something about their thoughts about White and Elam.  Benford's got one side, but the other side is still open.  And they always seem to take a corner take in the late rounds.

 

Receiver is no news.  Either in free agency or the draft, there's a quality receiver coming from somewhere.  And what Beane said about skillset isn't surprising, either.  That's how they got to Kincaid.   It makes much more sense to put the targets on the field and then design the offense to utilize their strengths than to evaluate the 2023 receiver room, decide what skills are missing, and search for those skills.  

 

Safety is an interesting position.  I don't think you meant literally "not good in shorts."  At every position, in their world, the guy has to be "good enough" in shorts.  Too slow is just too slow.  But I get your point and agree with it.   In McDermott's D, the safeties have to understand everything and process quickly.  If you think about how much geography a player has to think about at the moment the ball is snapped, tackles have the least and safeties have the most.  Players at both positions have to think fast, but the safeties have a lot more to think about.  I watched a few minutes of the the Lions and Chargers from week 10 yesterday.  Goff hit St. Brown on a deep crosser, and the replay Romo pointed out how the safety broke in to respond to an underneath threat.  It was very easy to see how no amount of physical talent was going to make up for the wrong decision as the receivers came off the line.  It's also what drives all of us crazy when a Bills safety or corner is there for the tackle but not close enough to break up the pass - at DB, McDermott values brains over closing speed.  The difference is obvious when we compare a corner like Dane Jackson to a linebacker like Dorian Williams.  

 

The problem with drafting a safety in the first round is where you're picking.  The truly special talent, good brain and good in shorts, never lasts late into the first round.  The difference between the guys who are left that you might take in the first round and the guy you can get in the later rounds just isn't that great in terms of his contribution to the team.  

 

Thanks for the report. 

[Malazan]

54 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

2. Von Miller is on the team in 2024. I know we all suspected that anyway, some of us hoped it wasn't necessarily the case but the Bills are doubling down;

 

Why would anyone hope that? His dead cap would be higher than the cost of him being on the roster.

[Watkins90]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Generally I agree that Douglas was very good for us last year and I have been a proponent of extending him for cap relief this year. That being said I won't be upset with any 30+ year old player Beane decides to move on from this offseason. We have to force young players onto the field one way or another. We've pushed the youth rebuild off for far too long.

You don't let that kind of talent walk away. Especially after you traded for him last season. You stick with him, especially since he is way better than some of the other guys on our roster. It would be a downgrade to release him. 

[GunnerBill]

4 minutes ago, Malazan said:

 

Why would anyone hope that? His dead cap would be higher than the cost of him being on the roster.

 

Nah. If they cut him with a post 1 June it saves us $6.7m this year. But it isn't happening. They are keeping him and doubling down. They better have a backup plan though because I think he is toast.

[Shaw66]

21 minutes ago, jahnyc said:

particularly if the Bills think Elam can be a starter at CB.

This is the kind of comment that I've grown to distrust and that I try not to make.  You're free to have your opinion about Elam, of course, and to say what you want, but after reading this forum all through training camp last year, I have developed a healthy respect for how little we all know.  Last summer it seemed everyone was screaming about middle linebacker and no one was saying Bernard could be anything more than a modest liability.  I tended to agree, because the little that we saw of him in 2022 was not encouraging. 

 

Every time I find myself thinking Elam is a bust, I think about Bernard.  Elam's a first-round talent, and he was injured most of 2023.  If he's healthy and not playing in September and October, okay, that says something, but I'm not reaching any conclusions about him before then. 

[SCBills]

27 minutes ago, jahnyc said:

Between Beane's presser and Tasker's views on the secondary, I have a feeling that Douglas will be released for cap savings.  I think it will be a mistake, particularly if the Bills think Elam can be a starter at CB.

 

It's a risk, but for me.. if we're reallocating that 10M owed to a 30 year old CB elsewhere because we want to bet on Elam's Year 3 development.. this team is finally starting to make decisions that can get us over the hump.  

 

[juno999]

25 minutes ago, mrags said:

If we let go of Douglas this staff is outright ridiculous. He was our best defender down the stretch last year. And it wasn’t even close. 

Not to mention we wasted a 3rd rd pick for basically a rental

[4BillsintheBurgh]

16 minutes ago, Einstein said:

It may be the prudent move to let Douglas walk considering his age.

 

I just don’t know what our CB room is going to be like without him?

 

Tre coming off 2 ACL injuries, Benford who is often injured, and Elam?

 

Yikes.

So you're saying we could draft more corners than wr's?  😄

[Bangarang]

17 minutes ago, Einstein said:

It may be the prudent move to let Douglas walk considering his age.

 

I just don’t know what our CB room is going to be like without him?

 

Tre coming off 2 ACL injuries, Benford who is often injured, and Elam?

 

Yikes.

 

Fwiw Tre's injury was his Achilles 

[jahnyc]

Unlike Bernard, there have been a couple of negative things that have been evident about the play of Elam in his first two years.  First, Elam seems to have a tendency to hold receivers and take penalties for it.  We even heard about it in training camp updates and summaries.  Second, he is not a sure tackler, which I thought was particularly important in McD's defense (and any defense).  I hope I am wrong, and Elam does seem to have an ability to make big plays (i.e., interceptions).

[Nephilim17]

Thanks, @GunnerBill. So I assume no talk of DE (other than keeping Von) or DT, interesting.

Edited February 28 by Nephilim17

[vtnatefootball11]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

3. Rasul Douglas is not the absolute lock to be back I think most of us assumed. He twice went immediately to past tense when talking about him "I liked what he brought to our defense" and "it was a pleasure getting to know him." Now neither of those definitely mean he is gone, but there are ways of making those same points without phrasing in the past tense and as I said at the start sometimes Beane tells you more than he means to. It definitely made my ears prick up. He is almost $10m of pure savings with zero dead cap if they cut him. I'm not saying I expect them to but I thought the tense he used was interesting.

 

Although I'm sure Beane is keeping all options open, I have to think this is a little bit of posturing here. He may be trying to gain a little leverage in negotiations with Douglas' agent for a short term extension. Would be shocked if the Bills just cut Douglas outright with what he brought to the table, how good of a fit he is for this defense, and the fact that we traded a legitimate pick for this guy.  I mean you saw how resistant Beane was to let go of Hines after we traded only a 6th round pick, can't imagine he just waists that 3rd for 5th swap.

[MasterStrategist]

2 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Nah. If they cut him with a post 1 June it saves us $6.7m this year. But it isn't happening. They are keeping him and doubling down. They better have a backup plan though because I think he is toast.

Not sure I'd call it "doubling down", that usually means putting more money/financial committment.  

 

I'd call it having "faith/hope" in Von, which isn't far-fetched.  He looked better/closer to normal form down the stretch.  Kinda like Tre in 2022, not quite himself but got closer each game.  Then in 2023 looked back like himself.

 

Regarding CB, and secondary in general, they need more speed/get younger.  Elam has talent, albeit inconsistent, but I could see a Bernard (or AJE) type jump for him.  It's either Douglas or Tre, that gets cut within the next few weeks IMO.  Tre has been around since Coach started, his 1st pick.  I think they cut Rasul and see where Tre is at late summer.  Elam/Benford/likely Dane resigned/rookie late pick/PS type guys....then if Tre is fully recovered, we have a nice problem.  At safety, I'm thinking we start over.  Poyer is still good, but the "whole was better than parts" (him and Hyde), FA will have several options and a 2nd or 3rd round rookie - with Cam/Hamlin/Rapp or another FA as depth.