Buffalo_Stampede Posted February 27 Posted February 27 (edited) 20 minutes ago, NoSaint said: yea, using swift as a 1050 yards last year vs Ty Johnson’s 1050 in 6 years is definitely Ty, right? Opportunity. If Ty got the carries he’d go for 1,000 also. Edited February 27 by Buffalo_Stampede Quote
BillsFanForever19 Posted February 27 Posted February 27 Just now, FireChans said: Disagree. With how top heavy our roster is and will be going forward with Josh and co’s big contracts, getting hidden gems like a Christian Benford or a Dane Jackson who are spot starters at worst is infinitely more valuable than an even league average running back in the 6th or 7th round. Christian Benford, currently, probably has a higher trade value than most RB’s in the league. Easily. And sure, you aren’t likely to always find those guys, but a league average starter at an important position will always be more important than a league average starter at RB. RB’s are not just dime a dozen because you can find them all over the draft. They are a dime a dozen because there’s about 15 guys available who can produce every year and will work for pennies on the dollar. How many CB’s or DE’s get picked up off the street and randomly produce at a high level? Not many. How many running backs have a production explosion? All the time. Like I said, Damien had 15 TD’s and got $1.7M. If Benford got cut tomorrow, he’s probably get $8M+ a season. I know what position I’d invest in when drafting. That's great if you can find Christian Benford with every 6th Round Pick. But for every Christian Benford there's a Marquez Stevenson, Luke Tenuta, Rachad Wildgoose, Jaquan Johnson, or Tanner Vallejo. Quote
Florida Bills Fanatic Posted February 27 Posted February 27 It seems obvious that some on this list will not find a landing spot when free agency and the draft run their course. Beane should be able to get decent options at the right price. I think backs looking for a big payday will be disappointed. Supply and demand are working against them. Quote
FireChans Posted February 27 Posted February 27 1 minute ago, BillsFanForever19 said: That's great if you can find Christian Benford with every 6th Round Pick. But for every Christian Benford there's a Marquez Stevenson, Luke Tenuta, Rachad Wildgoose, Jaquan Johnson, or Tanner Vallejo. I addressed that. Third paragraph. For every Isaiah Pacheco, there’s a Kevin Harris, Tyler Badie, Keontay Ingram, Trestan Ebner, Brittaij Brown, or Zander Hovarth. Hell, this Ty Johnson cat everyone seems to love all of the sudden was a 6th rounder for the Lions. Was he a good pick for them? Was the value there? On his third team in 4 years and has never had more than ~60 carries. Of course not. Quote
Turk71 Posted February 27 Posted February 27 (edited) Gus Edwards ran 4.52 at 238 lbs... that's impressive speed for a guy that size. I imagine he would not be very expensive with all those backs available. I don't know too much about him or his fit with the Bills, but if they need a big battering ram who could be a breakaway threat in the 2nd level..... He's not quite as big as Henry, ~10lbs lighter, but is a little faster and probably a lot cheaper. I don't think Henry will be nearly as cheap as some seem to think. Edited February 27 by Turk71 Quote
Buffalo716 Posted February 27 Posted February 27 7 minutes ago, FireChans said: I addressed that. Third paragraph. For every Isaiah Pacheco, there’s a Kevin Harris, Tyler Badie, Keontay Ingram, Trestan Ebner, Brittaij Brown, or Zander Hovarth. Hell, this Ty Johnson cat everyone seems to love all of the sudden was a 6th rounder for the Lions. Was he a good pick for them? Was the value there? On his third team in 4 years and has never had more than ~60 carries. Of course not. At positions like running back and wide receiver there are plenty of people who could develop into serviceable NFL players in the 5th 6th 7th round and undrafted free agents It's a matter of numbers 30 years ago.. there were 28 draft eligible wide receivers in a draft Now in 2023.. there are 50 draftable wide receivers with grades And all 50 are not getting drafted.. that means you're getting an NFL draftable player at wide receiver undrafted Same goes for running back... The position is so devalued that talent gets pushed down the board And you wind up with NFL running backs in the 5th 6th 7th round and undrafted all the time Quote
BillsFanForever19 Posted February 27 Posted February 27 11 minutes ago, Turk71 said: Gus Edwards ran 4.52 at 238 lbs... that's impressive speed for a guy that size. I imagine he would not be very expensive with all those backs available. I don't know too much about him or his fit with the Bills, but if they need a big battering ram who could be a breakaway threat in the 2nd level..... He's not quite as big as Henry, ~10lbs lighter, but is a little faster and probably a lot cheaper. I don't think Henry will be nearly as cheap as some seem to think. He will not. Yes, there will be some at the bottom of the list that will come cheap once the musical chairs stop and they are left still looking for a job. But the guys at the top of the list - Saquon Barkley, Derrick Henry, Austin Ekeler, Josh Jacobs, and Tony Pollard - those guys are going to get paid to be Starters on other teams. Will it be the money RB's made 5-10 years ago? No. But it won't be "cheap" either. 1 Quote
Prospector Posted February 27 Posted February 27 50 minutes ago, Jay_Fixit said: Good thing the Bills fan figure that out. Fans worrying about cap. LOL Interesting take. I was just stating my opinion on what I would do as the organization. Thanks for being a tool Quote
FireChans Posted February 27 Posted February 27 (edited) 27 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said: At positions like running back and wide receiver there are plenty of people who could develop into serviceable NFL players in the 5th 6th 7th round and undrafted free agents It's a matter of numbers 30 years ago.. there were 28 draft eligible wide receivers in a draft Now in 2023.. there are 50 draftable wide receivers with grades And all 50 are not getting drafted.. that means you're getting an NFL draftable player at wide receiver undrafted Same goes for running back... The position is so devalued that talent gets pushed down the board And you wind up with NFL running backs in the 5th 6th 7th round and undrafted all the time And those guys aren’t getting paid. That’s the whole point. Why draft an RB in the 6th round who MIGHT be modestly productive (and more likely not be NFL caliber), when you can sign a PRODUCTIVE 5th year RB who gets paid very little and has proven to be NFL quality? What you guys seem to not be grasping is that it used to be “don’t draft an RB high, they aren’t worth that.” That was the right line of thinking but it didn’t go far enough. The reality is, “why draft them at all when I can pay a dude who put up 15 rushing TD’s $1.7M and use the draft pick on a more valuable position?” Like I said, everyone seems to like this Ty Johnson dude. He’s gonna cost us what? $1Mish? He’s gonna probably have a better career than 90% of the RB’s drafted after round 5, right? Why would we waste a draft pick there at all? WR’s may need some grooming before being ready, like a Shakir. Buts that a position worth investing that time in. You should literally only draft an RB if you don’t have one on the roster. We don’t need to draft a James Cook replacement until he walks in FA. Find the next Latty Murray and Ty Johnson and Damien Williams and pay them no money. Edited February 27 by FireChans 1 2 Quote
Whkfc Posted February 27 Posted February 27 5 hours ago, Miyagi-Do Karate said: I think we are all set. But amazing to think a guy like Ekeler could be had on a cheap 1-year deal! He would be so good for us. Ekeler is washed that dude ran completely out of gas last season 1 Quote
FireChans Posted February 27 Posted February 27 1 minute ago, Whkfc said: Ekeler is washed that dude ran completely out of gas last season Thurman Thomas could’ve outran Ekeler last season. Great player in his day, but his time has come. 1 Quote
BillsDiehard Posted February 27 Posted February 27 6 hours ago, BillsFanForever19 said: Or..... We have Cook. We get Johnson back cheaper. We Draft a guy later. Done. Agreed but we'll definitely add a veteran bigger back Quote
Buffalo716 Posted February 27 Posted February 27 (edited) 11 minutes ago, FireChans said: And those guys aren’t getting paid. That’s the whole point. Why draft an RB in the 6th round who MIGHT be modestly productive (and more likely not be NFL caliber), when you can sign a PRODUCTIVE 5th year RB who gets paid very little and has proven to be NFL quality? What you guys seem to not be grasping is that it used to be “don’t draft an RB high, they aren’t worth that.” That was the right line of thinking but it didn’t go far enough. The reality is, “why draft them at all when I can pay a dude who put up 15 rushing TD’s $1.7M and use the draft pick on a more valuable position?” Like I said, everyone seems to like this Ty Johnson dude. He’s gonna cost us what? $1Mish? He’s gonna probably have a better career than 90% of the RB’s drafted after round 5, right? Why would we waste a draft pick there at all? WR’s may need some grooming before being ready, like a Shakir. Buts that a position worth investing that time in. You should literally only draft an RB if you don’t have one on the roster. We don’t need to draft a James Cook replacement until he walks in FA. Find the next Latty Murray and Ty Johnson and Damien Williams and pay them no money. You could never find me saying once that we need to draft a running back in the first round or pay one lots of money Never not once And I do think ty Johnson is a very quality NFL change of pace back... The problem with him.. is that he runs too hard for his size Like Ryan Matthews the running back from Fresno State who went top 15 ... 15 years ago The dude had all the talent in the world.. but at 5'11 220.. he ran like he was 6'2 240 Very productive every time he played but couldn't stay healthy I played running back in college so I have a good knack for them and I really do enjoy the position... I actually like ty Johnson a good amount.. I liked it when we signed him and I liked how he fit into what we do But man.. he probably only has 2 years left the way he runs even as a backup... He's way too small to run as hard as he does Which is why he shook himself up trying to deliver a blow I certainly would resign him for one year.. but we need to find a red shirt Junior who came out with very few touches and he's 225 and has gas And you can only run him hard for three or four years... There's a lot of talent at the running back position in the NFL.. a lot of guys can get you a thousand yards if they got the touches Very few will give you 10 years like Adrian Peterson or gore ... Guys like ty Johnson and Pancheco on the chiefs... They are talented but I can tell they'll be ran into the ground after a contract Edited February 27 by Buffalo716 Quote
Miyagi-Do Karate Posted February 27 Posted February 27 11 minutes ago, Whkfc said: Ekeler is washed that dude ran completely out of gas last season I just assumed he was more banged up than anything else, no? Quote
FireChans Posted February 27 Posted February 27 2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said: but we need to find a red shirt Junior who came out with very few touches and he's 225 and has gas Why? I feel like you’re not understanding what I’m saying. Why would you draft an RB in the sixth round who will likely suck, and probably has a 10-20% chance to be a JAG at the NFL level over signing an Antonio Gibson-level FA who has rushed for 1k yards in the NFL at one point on a 1 year $1.5M deal? What is the benefit? Quote
Mynamemike Posted February 27 Posted February 27 We love having the oldest active back in the league. Gore, Murray, Tolbert, so which free agent fits that criteria that’s gonna take touches away from Cook? Quote
Buffalo716 Posted February 27 Posted February 27 (edited) 26 minutes ago, FireChans said: Why? I feel like you’re not understanding what I’m saying. Why would you draft an RB in the sixth round who will likely suck, and probably has a 10-20% chance to be a JAG at the NFL level over signing an Antonio Gibson-level FA who has rushed for 1k yards in the NFL at one point on a 1 year $1.5M deal? What is the benefit? Because guys like that are stopgaps The NFL has a shortage of lineman.. but you're still better off drafting a 22-year-old kid and developing him into your system with professional coaches Then trying to sign a guy that a team didn't resign in a league with a shortage of lineman... Sure, not getting a contract from your old team can give you a kick in the ass to improve But John feliciano is only improving so much... Darryl Williams is only improving so much Both gave us a year of really good football... Then reverted back to what they always were You're much better drafting O Cyrus Torrence and developing him over three or four years in your system in the Long haul... You're getting more potential and upside The same thing is true with running backs... That sixth round pick has alot of talent... He would probably be a top four round pick 20 years ago... A running back is also never faster than he is out the gate... You only lose speed with miles So you can get four cheap years out of a six round pick who's good... That you scouted to fit your system Compared to always trying to find a guy in the pro personnel department year after year and reloading it Getting a seasoned veteran will give you a slightly higher floor... But you're also going to be replacing him a lot if he's your change of pace back... You're going to be having one year contracts and different running backs all the time Compared to drafting a cat in the sixth round developing him in your scheme... And getting talent and continuity for 4 years I certainly don't want a running back in the first or second round ... But again somebody like ty Johnson who I like has one or two years You can draft that same talent in the fifth round and have him for four.. he just needs to get up to speed which might take half a season We Carry Three running backs... cook, Ty, 6th round rookie... Is a solid backfield for me It has a floor with potential... Any running back who really wants to have playing time is not signing here anyways because we have James Cook A running back going in the fifth round has a lot of talent actually.. way more than a quarterback or a Defensive end at the same point Edited February 27 by Buffalo716 Quote
Warriorspikes51 Posted February 27 Posted February 27 3 minutes ago, Mynamemike said: We love having the oldest active back in the league. Gore, Murray, Tolbert, so which free agent fits that criteria that’s gonna take touches away from Cook? it had better be a player of much higher caliber than the above Quote
FireChans Posted February 27 Posted February 27 1 minute ago, Buffalo716 said: The NFL has a shortage of lineman also.. but you're still better off drafting a 22-year-old kid and developing him into your system with professional coaches Agreed, which is why I'd rather draft a developmental OL prospect over a running back in round 6. 2 minutes ago, Buffalo716 said: The same thing is true with running backs... That sixth round pick has alot of talent... He would probably be a top three round pick 20 years ago So you can get four cheap years out of a six round pick who's good... That you scouted to fit your system Disagree. HARD disagree. A lot of young RB's struggle with things as simple as pass-pro which, more than anything, keeps them off the field. Even still, they are THE MOST PLUG AND PLAY position in modern football. Let's keep this Bills-centric. Why do the Bills need a cheap, cost-controlled back for 4 seasons that we are most certainly not going to pay when their contract is up, even if they are the best RB in football, when we have James Cook for 2 more? At best, they have a handful of carries a game (that we've established could be equaled by virtually 60+ RB's in the NFL) for the next two years. You're paying them ~900k to ~1M during this time. And they cost you a 6th round pick. The opportunity cost of that alone makes no sense. I'd much rather have some big fat raw 6th round OT riding the pine and seeing spot duty/developing and let an Antonio Gibson eat up those carries for a league average or close YPC. It ain't that hard to learn a system for an RB. If we look at this from another perspective, let's try to assign a numerical value for later round draft picks. Is a 6th round pick worth, say $500k? Probably worth more than that, I'd say. Is it worth $2M+? I'd say no, but probably in the $1M+ range. But the difference in cheap productive NFL vet RB's contract and a 6th round RB contract is going to be ~$500k. The 32nd G in the NFL makes ~$4M. The 32nd RB makes $2.2M The 50th G in the NFL makes $2.3M. The 50th RB makes $1.3M And if we look at OT's, the discrepancy is even worse. The 75th highest paid OT in the NFL makes $1.9M. The math doesn't make sense. It makes infinitely more sense to draft a player at a position that: 1. Actually needs to time to develop (of which RB is the opposite) 2. Juice is worth the squeeze from a contract salary standpoint (of which RB is the opposite) If you wanna say bring in UDFA's only, I'm all for it. But draft picks? Nah Quote
Buffalo716 Posted February 27 Posted February 27 (edited) 7 minutes ago, FireChans said: Agreed, which is why I'd rather draft a developmental OL prospect over a running back in round 6. Disagree. HARD disagree. A lot of young RB's struggle with things as simple as pass-pro which, more than anything, keeps them off the field. Even still, they are THE MOST PLUG AND PLAY position in modern football. Let's keep this Bills-centric. Why do the Bills need a cheap, cost-controlled back for 4 seasons that we are most certainly not going to pay when their contract is up, even if they are the best RB in football, when we have James Cook for 2 more? At best, they have a handful of carries a game (that we've established could be equaled by virtually 60+ RB's in the NFL) for the next two years. You're paying them ~900k to ~1M during this time. And they cost you a 6th round pick. The opportunity cost of that alone makes no sense. I'd much rather have some big fat raw 6th round OT riding the pine and seeing spot duty/developing and let an Antonio Gibson eat up those carries for a league average or close YPC. It ain't that hard to learn a system for an RB. If we look at this from another perspective, let's try to assign a numerical value for later round draft picks. Is a 6th round pick worth, say $500k? Probably worth more than that, I'd say. Is it worth $2M+? I'd say no, but probably in the $1M+ range. But the difference in cheap productive NFL vet RB's contract and a 6th round RB contract is going to be ~$500k. The 32nd G in the NFL makes ~$4M. The 32nd RB makes $2.2M The 50th G in the NFL makes $2.3M. The 50th RB makes $1.3M And if we look at OT's, the discrepancy is even worse. The 75th highest paid OT in the NFL makes $1.9M. The math doesn't make sense. It makes infinitely more sense to draft a player at a position that: 1. Actually needs to time to develop (of which RB is the opposite) 2. Juice is worth the squeeze from a contract salary standpoint (of which RB is the opposite) If you wanna say bring in UDFA's only, I'm all for it. But draft picks? Nah James cooked sucked as a pass protector his first year And vastly improved Year two Pass protecting is the hardest thing for a professional running back to get... That's why cook didn't get on the field a lot as a rookie But he learned how to pass protect.. and so can ty Johnson You're not asking a sixth round rookie to come in and be a three down back dude... You're also not asking a running back on a one-year deal to come in and be a three down back That young running back would have a year or two to learn the system and protections because we already have a pro bowl running back in James Cook... The guy who is top five in yardage They're literally only getting guys that will complement him... And you're never fresher than the day you leave college And you have a much higher chance getting a good running back than a good offensive tackle in round six... We could take a tackle and develop him rounds 1 2 3 4 5... The second we're getting around six and seven... Running back wide receiver and cornerback have the most depth There's a shortage of tackles anybody who they think has talent doesn't last till the 6th round unless he has major other issues... Or they need years of development I'd rather have a karlos Williams for 1 year as a complimentary back... Then develop a project tackle for 3.5 years Edited February 27 by Buffalo716 Quote
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