Saints - “The bill comes due.”

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

  On 2/26/2024 at 10:23 AM, DCofNC said:

They got there the same way the Bills are getting there, always mortgaging the future to pay for this year because they had a shot.  It all started when they had Breese, then they thought they had enough to win the division, then they could get Carr and have another shot.  This is the reason I say, take the medicine once in a while.  I’d take it now, the current roster only has a shot because of JA, it will have pretty much the same shot of you cut all the fat and set yourself up for the future.  Right now, KC runs the AFC, you can beat up on the Jets and Patriots all you want, it won’t matter in the end.

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We're probably a year away from medicine.  Von, and Knox are fairly obvious candidates for next year. 

 

You could also potentially make several moves this year, but then it probably shifts your draft strategy.  If you trade douglas, and cut white - you save a bunch, but now depth is absolutely barren - so you likely have to sign one and draft another 1 or 2.  We need at least 1 safety for sure, cutting poyer just opens up another spot for a safety.  Same for Morse, you may feel comfortable plugging in bates, but you're actively downgrading at that point.  

 

To me its more of being very careful and methodical on extensions, term of extensions, age of players, etc.  Avoid tacking on tons of void years this year to any free agent contracts, and realistically look for players you want on the roster for multiple seasons.  And this is a draft that needs to have some day 1 contributors at potentially WR, S, and DT/DE.  

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

  On 2/26/2024 at 12:33 AM, Bills!Win! said:

How did the saints get this way when they’re just an average team 

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To make the post of Brees swan song years.

If they had taken a second title, I don't think they would have regretted it. The Bills might do the same with Josh.

[Utah John]

Salary cap games are like a drug addiction.  You get hooked and you can't get off the cycle.

 

The only way for the Saints to meet the NFL's required numbers before the middle of March -- just two or three weeks away -- is to buy more drugs.  They have to restructure some of their contracts to have them count less now, but they're not going to get clean.  They can't even quit cold turkey because the existing obligations won't go away even if the player is cut.  In fact cold turkey makes the immediate problem worse.

 

The Bills are skirting this desperate situation, largely due to Beane breaking his own financial prudence rules and signing Von Miller to that silly contract.  The Biils were prime drug candidates after the 13 second debacle, feeling depressed, and more to the point, letting McDermott blame the lack of a pass rush for the huge team and coaching failure.  So Beane tried going all-in to fix it by popping a few cap pills.  And now the Bills are on the edge of a total addiction collapse in the near future, Josh Allen or no Josh Allen.  The Dawson Knox contract will also be a burden soon, with no good solution in sight.

 

Joe Buscaglia had a good article in the Atlantic a couple of weeks ago about how the Bills could get by for the coming season.  Part of the cure involved buying more drugs.  But it would let the team attempt to continue its success by retaining just enough good players, hoping the draft yields 5 or more starters, or good reserves now who become starters when current players age out, and praying for no more significant injuries.  

 

If there's any good news, it's that Miami is in about the same situation, but debating whether to pay Tua with cap drugs, or try to replace him with a cheap rookie.  Tough choice since Tua has never shown he's a championship QB, just a system guy who can beat up on weak teams.  So the Bills and Dolphins are both vulnerable.  You know who's not?  The Jets.  Watch out. If they get a QB (and can avoid cap death for the Rodgers contract) and can fix their O line, they could win the division.

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

  On 2/26/2024 at 3:21 PM, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

To make the post of Brees swan song years.

If they had taken a second title, I don't think they would have regretted it. The Bills might do the same with Josh.

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Yep - then they snagged carr to try and extend the window with this team.  I don't think he's really good enough to do it, but the winston saints were not going anywhere.  1-5 against playoff teams last year on a pretty soft schedule (5-0 against Carolina, NE, NYG, Chicago) tells you all you need to know though.  

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

  On 2/26/2024 at 3:15 PM, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

We're probably a year away from medicine.  Von, and Knox are fairly obvious candidates for next year. 

 

You could also potentially make several moves this year, but then it probably shifts your draft strategy.  If you trade douglas, and cut white - you save a bunch, but now depth is absolutely barren - so you likely have to sign one and draft another 1 or 2.  We need at least 1 safety for sure, cutting poyer just opens up another spot for a safety.  Same for Morse, you may feel comfortable plugging in bates, but you're actively downgrading at that point.  

 

To me its more of being very careful and methodical on extensions, term of extensions, age of players, etc.  Avoid tacking on tons of void years this year to any free agent contracts, and realistically look for players you want on the roster for multiple seasons.  And this is a draft that needs to have some day 1 contributors at potentially WR, S, and DT/DE.  

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I think the best analogy I've heard is effectively how property investors will take on debt. So long as the base income keeps growing, it is very possible to juggle debt sustainably. Sometimes your acquisitions have to slow as you pay out what is owed, or call some projects a wash and take a hit to get it off your spreadsheets. But careful management means sustainable growth and improvement.

 

Alternately, you max out everything and pray it works out. The Saints did the latter.

  On 2/26/2024 at 3:27 PM, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Yep - then they snagged carr to try and extend the window with this team.  I don't think he's really good enough to do it, but the winston saints were not going anywhere.  1-5 against playoff teams last year on a pretty soft schedule (5-0 against Carolina, NE, NYG, Chicago) tells you all you need to know though.  

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Oh I agree. Things were bad when Peyton left, but I hadn't realized that they had kept going.

[T master]

  On 2/26/2024 at 12:33 AM, Bills!Win! said:

How did the saints get this way when they’re just an average team 

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Wasn't most of this done while Sean Payton was there ? I think all the contracts with Drew Breeze, Kamara, and others then they went out & paid Derek Carr a ton of money too which they were in a bad place before he got there .

[ColoradoBills]

The New Orleans Saints do not have a good football team.

They are in a weak division and haven't made the playoffs since Brees left (3 years).

They are 25-26 in the last 3 years (in that weak division) and should have totally reset in 2021.

You reap what you sow.

 

I still laugh when fans think their "blueprint" is in any way worth emulating.

[Saxum]

  On 2/26/2024 at 3:12 PM, Steptide said:

Derek Carr 

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They were in cap hell before they signed Derek Carr.

[Steptide]

  On 2/26/2024 at 4:10 PM, Punching Bag said:

 

They were in cap hell before they signed Derek Carr.

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Maybe, but he's still probly a big reason they're mediocre 

[Saxum]

  On 2/26/2024 at 3:26 PM, Utah John said:

If there's any good news, it's that Miami is in about the same situation, but debating whether to pay Tua with cap drugs, or try to replace him with a cheap rookie.  Tough choice since Tua has never shown he's a championship QB, just a system guy who can beat up on weak teams.  So the Bills and Dolphins are both vulnerable.  You know who's not?  The Jets.  Watch out. If they get a QB (and can avoid cap death for the Rodgers contract) and can fix their O line, they could win the division.

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I doubt the JESTS will find fairy dust.

[Utah John]

  On 2/26/2024 at 4:19 PM, Punching Bag said:

 

I doubt the JESTS will find fairy dust.

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What they have is a very strong defense, a top-tier RB, and one of the best WRs in the game.  It's really their O line that's held them back.  Also the QB although I still don't know if Zach Wilson could be a legitimate starter since he's been completely mis-handled his entire career.  

[GunnerBill]

  On 2/26/2024 at 5:17 PM, Utah John said:

What they have is a very strong defense, a top-tier RB, and one of the best WRs in the game.  It's really their O line that's held them back.  Also the QB although I still don't know if Zach Wilson could be a legitimate starter since he's been completely mis-handled his entire career.  

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I don't think Bryce is top tier and the rest of their WRs aside from Wilson suck balls.

[RoyBatty is alive]

  On 2/26/2024 at 1:03 AM, Warriorspikes51 said:

If Michael Thomas is cut, I wonder what his market value is?  Could be an intriguing option

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He is 31 and has been mediocre since his stellar 2019. I would pass let someone else overpay him.

[hondo in seattle]

  On 2/26/2024 at 12:49 AM, John from Riverside said:

The big differences, the bills have a franchise quarterback with a contract that is structured so that they can continue to restructure for cap relief

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But restructuring doesn't save you any money.  It postpones a problem but doesn't solve it.  

[Ridgewaycynic2013]

  On 2/26/2024 at 4:19 PM, Punching Bag said:

 

I doubt the JESTS will find fairy dust.

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There's your next 'Breaking Bad'.  A major pharmaceutical corporation funds and supplies the illicit drug trade in order for the NYJ to have the capital to win the Super Bowl.

*
🤔

[RoyBatty is alive]

  On 2/26/2024 at 3:21 PM, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

To make the post of Brees swan song years.

If they had taken a second title, I don't think they would have regretted it. The Bills might do the same with Josh.

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Agreed and the Saints should have been in Super Bowl in 2018 with the non-PI call on former Bill Nickell Roby Colman.

[BuffaloBill]

  On 2/26/2024 at 1:56 AM, BuffaloBillsGospel2014 said:

I read restructuring Allen this season will free up 23M alone. 

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Lost in the restructures is what does that do to the future?  No doubt restructures have to be a part of the process but situations like Tre White, Von Miller and even Diggs show the longer term downside to the practice.  

[TheFunPolice]

  On 2/26/2024 at 3:46 AM, NoSaint said:

Because when Sean Payton left the front office and coaches didn’t want to take their medicine with a rebuild and made wild decisions that should be reserved for teams with at least a chance to compete. 
 

they continue To do so 

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in their defense, in the NFC South 6-11 has a chance to win the division. 

Edited February 26, 2024 by TheFunPolice

[billsfan89]

  On 2/26/2024 at 12:33 AM, Bills!Win! said:

How did the saints get this way when they’re just an average team 

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Brees last few years they really floored it to try and win with him and then they just kept going with it never really bottoming out

[Delete_Delete_Delete]

Smart move is to just take your lumps for the next 2-3 years, off any player with value for whatever picks they can get, even if they are day 3s, and just field a roster of rookies and vet minimum guys while you bottom out and stack up some top draft picks.

 

Once you do this, don’t ruin it all by giving $250 million fully guaranteed to a sex pest.