The coaching mismatch

[beebe]

1 hour ago, Doc said:

 

I just checked and you're right.

 

Spags has been getting credit for beating Brady twice in a Super Bowl for like a decade. It's one of the oddest things. If you do a Twitter search that includes the words "Spags," "Brady" and "twice," you'll see comments about it almost daily. In reality, he was putting the finishing touches on a 10-38 record with the Rams before getting fired (his defenses were mostly terrible.)

 

He caught on with the Saints a year later as their DC where he oversaw arguably the worst defense in NFL history. He was fired after one season. 

 

The New Orleans Saints have fired defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo after one season -- a record-setting year in the wrong way.

New Orleans ranked last in the NFL in total defense and run defense, yielding the most yards (7,042) ever in a single season.

 

After a few years as an assistant and position coach with the Ravens, Spags returned to the Giants in 2015. Two of his three defenses, including the one that led to his departure for a second time, were terrible, finishing close to dead last in both yards and points allowed. 

 

In KC, his defenses haven't been particularly good in regular seasons up until this year. He's been 15th, 16th, 22nd, 14th and 7th in DVOA. We have seen an uptick in KC's defensive performance most years in the playoffs, but certainly not always. This year was the clear exception (KC's defense was great.) 

 

But from 2019-2022, Spags' defenses allowed: 31, 24, 20, 17, 24, 31, 27, 36, 21, 20, 20, 35 pts in 12 playoff games. That's an average of 25.5 points per game allowed in the playoffs. If KC's offense had performed less-than-amazing, or had the Chiefs lost playoff games where the offense scored 30-plus—ie the 13 seconds game, or the Eagles Super Bowl—the narrative surrounding Spags would be much different. 

 

McDermott's defenses have given up 23.4 points per playoff game in his tenure by comparison (less than 20 pts vs non Chiefs opponents.) 

 

McDermott's defenses on the whole have far outperformed Spags' defenses in the regular season, and they've been very close during the playoffs (edge would go to McDermott statistically.) 

Edited February 24 by beebe

[SaulGoodman]

30 minutes ago, beebe said:

 

Spags has been getting credit for beating Brady twice in a Super Bowl for like a decade. It's one of the oddest things. If you do a Twitter search that includes the words "Spags," "Brady" and "twice," you'll see comments about it almost daily. In reality, he was putting the finishing touches on a 10-38 record with the Rams before getting fired (his defenses were mostly terrible.)

 

He caught on with the Saints a year later as their DC where he oversaw arguably the worst defense in NFL history. He was fired after one season. 

 

The New Orleans Saints have fired defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo after one season -- a record-setting year in the wrong way.

New Orleans ranked last in the NFL in total defense and run defense, yielding the most yards (7,042) ever in a single season.

 

After a few years as an assistant and position coach with the Ravens, Spags returned to the Giants in 2015. Two of his three defenses, including the one that led to his departure for a second time, were terrible, finishing close to dead last in both yards and points allowed. 

 

In KC, his defenses haven't been particularly good in regular seasons up until this year. He's been 15th, 16th, 22nd, 14th and 7th in DVOA. We have seen an uptick in KC's defensive performance most years in the playoffs, but certainly not always. This year was the clear exception (KC's defense was great.) 

 

But from 2019-2022, Spags' defenses allowed: 31, 24, 20, 17, 24, 31, 27, 36, 21, 20, 20, 35 pts in 12 playoff games. That's an average of 25.5 points per game allowed in the playoffs. If KC's offense had performed less-than-amazing, or had the Chiefs lost playoff games where the offense scored 30-plus—ie the 13 seconds game, or the Eagles Super Bowl—the narrative surrounding Spags would be much different. 

 

McDermott's defenses have given up 23.4 points per playoff game in his tenure by comparison (less than 20 pts vs non Chiefs opponents.) 

 

McDermott's defenses on the whole have far outperformed Spags' defenses in the regular season, and they've been very close during the playoffs (edge would go to McDermott statistically.) 

 

Easy now....you're dropping too many facts. 

[beebe]

Even counting this year's playoff wizardry under Spags, KC's defenses have allowed 5.39 yards per play and 23 points per game across 16 playoff games. 

 

They've given up 24+ points in eight of 16 playoff games.

 

They've given up 31 points and 35 points in two of their four Super Bowls. 

 

KC has had just two truly dominant defensive playoff outings in the Spags era: Allowing 7 pts on 4.5 yards per play vs the Dolphins this year; and giving up 3.9 yards per play vs the Steelers in Big Ben's final game (Pitt had 21 pts that game, but had a defensive score.) 

 

KC's performance vs the Ravens this year would likely take 3rd place, they gave up just 10 points against a very good offense. But Baltimore went 5.9 yards per play and underperformed the scoreboard with the goal line fumble, among other snafus. 

 

Where KC has shined in the playoffs under Spags is getting critical stops when they need them most. More specifically, Chris Jones has shined when they need him most. Jones had a huge batted ball in Super Bowl 54 vs the 49ers as well as some big pressures late. He had the critical sack of Joe Burrow in last year's AFC championship game. He got just enough pressure on Josh Allen to alter the throw to Shakir in the divisional round, and had the critical pressure to force the quick Purdy incompletion vs the 49ers late in Super Bowl 58. 

 

One area of weakness that stands out for McDermott in the playoffs (and it could just be randomness) is the lack of takeaways. Buffalo has had the most takeaways in the NFL during McDermott's tenure: 188 takeaways in 114 regular season games (1.64 takeaways per game.) But in playoff games, Buffalo has forced just 10 turnovers in 11 playoff games (two were by Mecole Hardman, a fumble out of the end zone and a muffed punt in the 2020 AFC title game.) 

 

Buffalo has yet to intercept Mahomes in three playoff games and also didn't intercept Burrow in the other playoff loss.

[Doc]

10 minutes ago, beebe said:

 

Spags has been getting credit for beating Brady twice in a Super Bowl for like a decade. It's one of the oddest things. If you do a Twitter search that includes the words "Spags," "Brady" and "twice," you'll see comments about it almost daily. In reality, he was putting the finishing touches on a 10-38 record with the Rams before getting fired (his defenses were mostly terrible.)

 

He caught on with the Saints a year later as their DC where he oversaw arguably the worst defense in NFL history. He was fired after one season. 

 

The New Orleans Saints have fired defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo after one season -- a record-setting year in the wrong way.

New Orleans ranked last in the NFL in total defense and run defense, yielding the most yards (7,042) ever in a single season.

 

After a few years as an assistant and position coach with the Ravens, Spags returned to the Giants in 2015. Two of his three defenses, including the one that led to his departure for a second time, were terrible, finishing close to dead last in both yards and points allowed. 

 

In KC, his defenses haven't been particularly good in regular seasons up until this year. He's been 15th, 16th, 22nd, 14th and 7th in DVOA. We have seen an uptick in KC's defensive performance most years in the playoffs, but certainly not always. This year was the clear exception (KC's defense was great.) 

 

But from 2019-2022, Spags' defenses allowed: 31, 24, 20, 17, 24, 31, 27, 36, 21, 20, 20, 35 pts in 12 playoff games. That's an average of 25.5 points per game allowed in the playoffs. If KC's offense had performed less-than-amazing, or had the Chiefs lost games playoff games where the offense scored 30-plus—ie the 13 seconds game, or the Eagles Super Bowl—the narrative surrounding Spags would be much different. 

 

McDermott's defenses have given up 23.4 points per playoff game in his tenure by comparison (less than 20 pts vs non Chiefs opponents.) 

 

McDermott's defenses on the whole have far outperformed Spags' defenses in the regular season, and they've been very close during the playoffs (edge would go to McDermott statistically.) 

 

The point being Spags has done it on the biggest stage.  McD hasn't.  And there's no argument Reid is a better play-caller than anything the Bills have had in decades.

[Dr. Who]

1 minute ago, Doc said:

 

The point being Spags has done it on the biggest stage.  McD hasn't.  And there's no argument Reid is a better play-caller than anything the Bills have had in decades.

Indeed, facts are always contextual and relative to a larger, encompassing narrative. 

[beebe]

13 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

The point being Spags has done it on the biggest stage.  McD hasn't.  And there's no argument Reid is a better play-caller than anything the Bills have had in decades.

 

He has. But his two best-known defenses - the '07 Giants and the '23 Chiefs - also had some truly elite players. That Giants team led the NFL in sacks (six more than any other team) and had Strahan and Osi Umenyiora creating an unreal pass rush. The next year, without Spags, that same Giants defense gave up 3.5 points less per game and were a top-5 defense. 

 

The '23 Chiefs had Chris Jones and the NFL's best secondary.

 

Spags has definitely made a name for himself, and good for him. But outside of those two seasons, he's been a league-average defensive coordinator in his 14 years of running NFL defenses, but has had some notable playoff successes. McDermott has a 100-plus game sample of being very good at running defenses, but has some notable playoff failures. 

[ExiledInIllinois]

Josh Allen had a wide open receiver at the back of the endzone for the go ahead, possible came winning TD... He couldn't get the ball to him.

 

At the same time there was this:

[Doc]

1 hour ago, beebe said:

 

He has. But his two best-known defenses - the '07 Giants and the '23 Chiefs - also had some truly elite players. That Giants team led the NFL in sacks (six more than any other team) and had Strahan and Osi Umenyiora creating an unreal pass rush. The next year, without Spags, that same Giants defense gave up 3.5 points less per game and were a top-5 defense. 

 

The '23 Chiefs had Chris Jones and the NFL's best secondary.

 

Spags has definitely made a name for himself, and good for him. But outside of those two seasons, he's been a league-average defensive coordinator in his 14 years of running NFL defenses, but has had some notable playoff successes. McDermott has a 100-plus game sample of being very good at running defenses, but has some notable playoff failures. 

His defense against the '07 Cheaters was one for the ages.  I still remember Brady guffawing at one of the Giants players saying they were going to hold them to 20 points...and then holding them to 17.

 

And yes the Chiefs' defense this past season was excellent.  And most importantly healthy. 

[harmonkillebrew]

Not likely to get any better in the near future either.  Brady will be outmatched by Spags. McD/Babich by Reid.

We will have to win with an abundance of superior talent.

[Doc]

3 minutes ago, harmonkillebrew said:

Not likely to get any better in the near future either.  Brady will be outmatched by Spags. McD/Babich by Reid.

We will have to win with an abundance of superior talent.

 

Depends on how long Reid continues to coach. 

[harmonkillebrew]

22 minutes ago, Doc said:

 

Depends on how long Reid continues to coach. 

Agree, which is why I think Beane's strategy of keeping the window open as long as possible is valid. Reid will eventually retire and hopefully we'll still be competitive then.