Cover 1's Top Free Agent Fits for the Bills

[Logic]

3 minutes ago, boyst said:

you forogt McKenzie

Absolutely. Lil Dirty. Gotta get him back here so that we can run two jet sweeps a game.

I'd also look into bringing Isaiah Hodgins back if the Giants release him. I'd like to see if we can get him on the practice squad for another four seasons or so.

[BADOLBILZ]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

They played most of this season with Tyrel Dodson starting at linebacker and a revolving door of characters coming in and out of the secondary and they were a top 10 defense. They need some pieces there but beyond one safety they are not pieces I think they should be dedicating a lot of $$s to. 

 

My plan is make a safety your 1 first wave of free agency move - but don't pay top of the market there will be 8-10 serviceable vet starters out there. And I'd try again in the June market for a vet pass rusher with the money I'd save by cutting the corpse of Von Miller's career. I don't think the Bills will do that though, Von will likely be here, so safety would be my only reasonably sized contract. They will need some lower value Dline depth pieces but I'm talking contracts of the level that they don't get comp pick formula consideration (not saying the comp pick formula should be be all and end all by the way, that is just a proxy for the value level I'm talking in terms of those backups.

 

If I was making a second move in the initial free agency wave it would be a vet receiver. DJ Chark, Josh Reynolds, maybe Kendrick Bourne. Someone in that sort of tier. 

 

I'd probably pass on the vet route though and be trying to get two viable receivers from the draft though. Ideally I want someone with #1 receiver ceiling early and then someone late with some inside/outside flex who can be what Gabe was his first two years here and be your first guy in off the bench who knows all three spots. 

 

 

Yeah I am not nearly as panicked about the defensive vacancies as some.   It's two-fold........I think they can still be coached up and young-player-developed to be top 10 again........and if it doesn't turn out that good I am also willing to fall back toward the middle for one season if it means turning the offense into a much more efficient machine.   I wasn't worried about the MLB position last year and that turned out even better than I thought so I tend to lean more to the likelihood that they can still get to top 10 without spending much in FA.

 

And I agree that "on paper" it makes sense to pass on veteran WR's.

 

 But that's all well and good until the 1st round rookie tears an ACL in minicamp and you got NOTHING outside but Justin Shorter.

 

Not having insurance at that boundary WR position and then having to have Allen pound the rock 9-10 times again next year just to hopefully clinch a playoff spot in week 17(again) would be a grave injustice to Allen's career.

 

The risk of that happening is not worth the cap savings.  

 

When they didn't address this boundary WR need in either of the prior 2 offseasons they left themselves with zero margin for error this offseason, IMO.    I hate to even throw $5M-$6M gtd money at a Josh Reynolds type but that boundary WR position is not as easy to address as MLB or Safety.   There probably ISN'T one of those waiting to emerge from spots 48-53 or the practice squad.  

 

Like I said when they signed Sharty and Sherfield last year........their relatively long histories said they were NOT going to produce........and sure enough, they did not.  

 

The Bills need someone with more than one season where they weren't otherwise trash.

[MrEpsYtown]

Nice stuff. The safeties they chose are pretty disappointing considering what will be out there, but overall a good job. 

[BADOLBILZ]

7 hours ago, pennstate10 said:

A quality WR2 is going to get a $12-15 million per year contract. You could push some of that into the future, but then 2025-26 become worse cap years. 
 

I don’t think Bills have cap space to sign a quality WR2, and other minor FA pickups or resigning (DL, S). 
 

Bills could sign a lesser quality FA WR, which is what I think they do. 

 

 

I never said they would get a "quality WR2".    None of the guys Cover 1 mentioned are "quality WR2's".

 

Those players all have a combination of potential to possibly produce 600-800 yards AND some actual solid past production to prove it.   Hence "high ceiling".

 

Those guys aren't all going to get $12M-$15M.   Some are going to get $5M to $9M to "prove" they are worth more next year........figures which the Bills can dice up with void years like they did with the Leonard Floyd contract.

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

You have this wrong, at least for the bulk of this board because you are missing the point that most people understand Beane can't really (and likely isn't) spending big on a WR in free agency, and that we will certainly address WR in this deep WR draft where we have like 10 picks to land probably 2 prospects with one early and another in the mid rounds.  

 

We don't have the cap luxury of going out and paying a top FA WR.  So its not at all that people are concerned with "patching" holes to ignore WR, its that we can patch a lot of those other holes cheaply in FA elsewhere and aggressively address WR in the draft as well as other young talent to hopefully compete or develop into starters at those other patch spots.

 

And not only is that what everyone else is thinking, that is almost certainly exactly what is going to happen.  Beane is not spending big on a FA WR...we are MUCH more likely to sign someone like a Noah Brown than a Mike Evans then go get a WR in round 1 or 2 depending on how the draft falls and probably another between rounds 3 and 5 again depending on the board falls.  

 

Free Agency should be to "patch" holes then you look for your young big upside talent in the draft and hope you find someone that both contributes this year and develops into a succession plan for Diggs. 

 

 

Nah, man.

 

Who said Beane was "spending big" on anything in free agency?

 

Not me.

 

 Noah Brown is very much the type that I am talking about.   But if you think Noah Brown is signing after the draft for $1.7M you are crazy.   That's a $5M-$9M type contract and likely done in the 6 weeks prior to the draft most likely.  

 

Just because boundary WR should be the #1 priority in both UFA and the draft doesn't mean that they can't sign another $7M Emmanuel Sanders type to serve as the hedge against a very wide range of potentially unsatisfactory outcomes with only a rookie or a Sherfield type at on the boundary.    

[BADOLBILZ]

9 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

 

As we learned with Harry and Sherfield that signing a vet, even one who produced elsewhere, is no guarantee of success.  

 

 

 

Harty and Sherfield produced elsewhere?  

 

Uh, no they did not.

 

You were clearly mistaken for thinking that.  

 

Some of you guys took the cheese that was put out there by the Bills about their "potential" instead of looking at the fact that their career receiving yardage averages were 198 and 169 per season!

 

Now you are using that false premise to advance a philosophy about not signing players who produce because they may turn into Sharty or Sherfield?  

 

 

 

[BillsFanForever19]

On 2/23/2024 at 12:24 AM, GASabresIUFan said:

Why bring in any of these guys? What do they bring but a waste of limited cap $.  Could they out outperform the nothing we got from Harty, Sherfield, and Isabella?  Sure they could, but so could a 4th or 5th rd draft pick.  Shorter is already here and is aleady a cost-controlled option.  

 

I'd much rather have Diggs, a top draft pick, and Shakir as the top 3. and then let Shorter, Hamler and another draft pick fight it out for the 4th and 5th slots.  Long-term we'd be much better off if Shorter and/or another similar draft pick emerge as a threat just like 5th rd pick Shakir did last year.  I just don't see how adding another 1-year castoff makes us better.  We need to fix the D Line and safety depth before wasting FA $ on a 4th or 5th WR.

 

I gotta agree with @BADOLBILZ on this one.

 

We can do both of what he's suggesting and what you are suggesting. And we should.

 

Even though we kept only 5 WR's last season, the usual number is 6. There was even a year where we kept 7. I suspect we'll be taking the out in Harty's contract. Leaving us with just Diggs, Shakir, and Shorter.

 

Draft the WR2 in Round 1. Most likely Thomas Jr., Franklin, Coleman, or Legette. Draft another in Round 4, maybe even use some of our extra picks to trade back up into Round 3 if there's someone sticking out.

 

But also sign a veteran with experience to go along with the Rookies. As good as the Rookies look in this class, there's no guarantee that they'll hit and hit immediately.

 

You pointed out some great guys in the past number of Drafts. But there's also been the Treylon Burks and Quentin Johnston's of the world in Round 1 in the past 2 Drafts. As good as I feel about some of the guys in the Draft, the entire makeup of our WR core cannot be Diggs, Shakir, and 3 guys who have a combined 0 reps at the Pro Level and a guy like Hamler, who is on his 3rd team in less than a year for a reason. He'll be this year's Andy Isabella. Regardless of what he does in Camp, we can easily get him back on the Practice Squad with the stink he has on him now, just as we did with Isabella.

 

Yes, Harty and Sherfield were underwhelming. But that doesn't mean that any veteran WR that isn't a Superstar is destined to be the same in this Offense. A guy like Brown or Reynolds, who have done good things with lesser QB's, can flourish with Allen and at the very least provide insurance and more reliability at the reserve WR role than we've gotten with Harty and Sherfield.

 

And with the higher than expected bump in Salary Cap, we can do everything you suggested doing with the money when you made this post and still sign a guy like Brown or Reynolds.

Edited February 24 by BillsFanForever19

[GASabresIUFan]

14 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

Harty and Sherfield produced elsewhere?  

I love how you used averages instead of the actual stats.  Sherfield had 30 catches for 417 yards a Miami in 2022 and Harty had 570 yards on 36 catches for NO in 2021.  So yes these guys produced elsewhere in depth roles.  Had we received that kind of production from them, it might have helped us win a few more games.

 

However, you also proved my point.  We spent 4.1 on Harty and 1.78 on Sherfield last season. What a waste of limited cap space. Practice squad players could have given us similar results.  Time to stop shopping at Bargain Mart, but to draft and develop our own WRs.  

[JohnBonhamRocks]

Think we could afford RBs Elliott & Johnson, WRs N. Brown and Reynolds, DT D. Jones, DE Epenesa, and S Chin?

[GASabresIUFan]

23 minutes ago, JohnBonhamRocks said:

Think we could afford RBs Elliott & Johnson, WRs N. Brown and Reynolds, DT D. Jones, DE Epenesa, and S Chin?

No.  Even with the cap increase the Bills still need to watch their pocket book this year and next until they are out from under Diggs , Knox and especially Miller. 
 

Last year I think McGovern was our biggest FA signing.  Hopefully the bump in cap allows Beane to make two McGovern level signings (Jones & Chinn?).  
 

Even with the cap jump, the Bills are still 35+ over the cap.  They also really only have about 30-35 players who you can project to next year’s roster depending on how some of the kids develop. 
 

If you clear 70 million off the off the cap, that leaves about 35 million to fill approximately 20 roster holes.  Assuming 6-7 guys from the draft make the team (cost about $10 million), they leaves 25 million for 14 players.  That’s about 1.7-1.8 per player.  That what we paid Sherfield last year. 

Edited February 24 by GASabresIUFan

[BADOLBILZ]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I love how you used averages instead of the actual stats.  Sherfield had 30 catches for 417 yards a Miami in 2022 and Harty had 570 yards on 36 catches for NO in 2021.  So yes these guys produced elsewhere in depth roles.  Had we received that kind of production from them, it might have helped us win a few more games.

 

However, you also proved my point.  We spent 4.1 on Harty and 1.78 on Sherfield last season. What a waste of limited cap space. Practice squad players could have given us similar results.  Time to stop shopping at Bargain Mart, but to draft and develop our own WRs.  

 

 

I'm glad you like that I use common sense.........but what you should be taking away from Harty/Sherfield is that one modest outlier season out of 5 or 6 does not equate to "producing elsewhere" or indicate untapped talent.

 

I made this point when we signed those two turds.    I pointed to Andre Holmes as an example of Bills fans getting suckered into thinking that the ONE season in a long career where a player did something indicated there was so much more there to be had.   Robert Foster is another good Bills example.

 

People didn't want to hear it........but it was true and played out like I expected.    Sherfield literally put up 87 yards in 2021.......had his 400 yard season with Miami.......and then had 86 yards the next season with Buffalo.    That's what he is........a low production, special teams depth receiver.   He's only had 2 seasons out of 7 where he's even gotten to 100 yards.   

 

And no, I didn't make your point.   You were just wrong.   Harty was a terrible signing.   He hadn't done anything to warrant that pay.   The players that Cover 1 are talking about as potential targets are all legitimate, proven productive NFL wide receivers.   Not stars........but guys you can expect to be able to utilize regularly as a legit boundary option in a Diggs/Kincaid/Shakir lead pass game.   

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

And no, I didn't make your point.   You were just wrong.   Harty was a terrible signing.   He hadn't done anything to warrant that pay.   The players that Cover 1 are talking about as potential targets are all legitimate, proven productive NFL wide receivers.   Not stars........but guys you can expect to be able to utilize regularly as a legit boundary option in a Diggs/Kincaid/Shakir lead pass game.   

That is my point.  Time to stop wasting money on bargain mart players.  Time to draft and develop our own depth.

[billsfan89]

On 2/22/2024 at 6:33 AM, dpberr said:

• No one 30 or older.  I wouldn't even go for 29 year old players.
• No one who missed 50% or more games last year.

The list should start with that group of players.  Then you look at production.  The Bills have to get out of the business of old players this year.  

 

 

 

 

I would rather take on a 30/31 year old on a one-year rental whose been healthy to fill in a role than take on a younger player whose constantly hurt. I agree the Bills need a bit of a youth movement, particularly at D-line and safety but I also don't think you don't want to bring back productive vets on manageable contracts to "hold the fort" while you bring rookies up to speed. 

[Alphadawg7]

21 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Nah, man.

 

Who said Beane was "spending big" on anything in free agency?

 

Not me.

 

 Noah Brown is very much the type that I am talking about.   But if you think Noah Brown is signing after the draft for $1.7M you are crazy.   That's a $5M-$9M type contract and likely done in the 6 weeks prior to the draft most likely.  

 

Just because boundary WR should be the #1 priority in both UFA and the draft doesn't mean that they can't sign another $7M Emmanuel Sanders type to serve as the hedge against a very wide range of potentially unsatisfactory outcomes with only a rookie or a Sherfield type at on the boundary.    

Maybe I misunderstood you.  I read your post as if you were mocking people for picking other players to patch holes during FA rather than sign a big time WR.

 

And my counter to that was to that is because this is a WR rich draft and we are much more likely to pursue that big WR upgrade in the draft than FA.

 

Although since then, the cap came out even higher than expected, so maybe it makes Beane more interested in a pricier WR FA.  But still think it’s most likely gonna come from the draft.

[3rdand12]

On 2/22/2024 at 8:46 AM, TheWeatherMan said:

Defense is going to get annihilated by good offenses regardless of who you sign or draft.   I’d go all offense in FA and Draft, only add defense vis UDFA’s and bargain bin FA’s excepting vet minimum.  Way too much money invested in this defense that folds every post season.  

Does your answer really help Bills No get Annihilated or just save money because they are going to get annihilated anyways lol

[BillsFanForever19]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

That is my point.  Time to stop wasting money on bargain mart players.  Time to draft and develop our own depth.

 

I don't understand how you can't grasp this. We WILL be doing that.

 

We have to replace half of our WR core. We'll be Drafting 2 WR's, using our 1st Round Pick to fill our hole at WR2.

 

But to say Draft all 3 of them would be to have 4/6 of our WR Core next year having a combined ZERO reps of Regular Season NFL action. That's entirely too risky.

 

You might be fine with that, but there's no chance Brandon Beane (or any NFL GM) would be cool with having 4/6 of his WR core being complete unknowns at the next level. Having even half of the core with no experience represents the absolute top end of what a GM would do. And Cover 1, @BADOLBILZ, and myself are already calling for that.

 

To your point of Draft and Develop, with the 2 Draft Picks along with Shakir and Shorter - that would represent 4 of our 6 WR's being players that we Drafted and will be developing or have developed already.

 

But we need someone with experience and known production to provide insurance to the unknowns and also provide more productivity in the reserve role than Sherfield or Harty provided. As well as provide someone who can be trusted in the event of injury.

 

Noah Brown or Josh Reynolds aren't "bargain bin". They're a step above that. Neither will come as cheap as Sherfield was and they're better players. Not so much that it's going to hamper us, but not so little that they can be considered "bargain bin".

 

This idea that unless it's a super expensive WR1 or a Draft Pick, it's a waste of resources and is destined to provide nothing is incredibly simple minded. Just bc Sherfield or Harty didn't work out doesn't immediately equate to a Brown or Reynolds being the same. Especially since they're better players.

 

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

Maybe I misunderstood you.  I read your post as if you were mocking people for picking other players to patch holes during FA rather than sign a big time WR.

 

And my counter to that was to that is because this is a WR rich draft and we are much more likely to pursue that big WR upgrade in the draft than FA.

 

Although since then, the cap came out even higher than expected, so maybe it makes Beane more interested in a pricier WR FA.  But still think it’s most likely gonna come from the draft.

 

Again, I don't think anyone's suggesting we don't Draft a WR in Round 1. Or that we sign a big ticket FA WR (we really can't).

 

But we can't fill all 3 of our holes at WR with just Draft Picks and have everyone on our WR core not named Diggs or Shakir combining to a total of 0 regular season snaps.

 

It's not a situation of us having to do one thing or the other. Draft 2, sign 1.

Edited February 24 by BillsFanForever19

[3rdand12]

23 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah I am not nearly as panicked about the defensive vacancies as some.   It's two-fold........I think they can still be coached up and young-player-developed to be top 10 again........and if it doesn't turn out that good I am also willing to fall back toward the middle for one season if it means turning the offense into a much more efficient machine.   I wasn't worried about the MLB position last year and that turned out even better than I thought so I tend to lean more to the likelihood that they can still get to top 10 without spending much in FA.

 

And I agree that "on paper" it makes sense to pass on veteran WR's.

 

 But that's all well and good until the 1st round rookie tears an ACL in minicamp and you got NOTHING outside but Justin Shorter.

 

Not having insurance at that boundary WR position and then having to have Allen pound the rock 9-10 times again next year just to hopefully clinch a playoff spot in week 17(again) would be a grave injustice to Allen's career.

 

The risk of that happening is not worth the cap savings.  

 

When they didn't address this boundary WR need in either of the prior 2 offseasons they left themselves with zero margin for error this offseason, IMO.    I hate to even throw $5M-$6M gtd money at a Josh Reynolds type but that boundary WR position is not as easy to address as MLB or Safety.   There probably ISN'T one of those waiting to emerge from spots 48-53 or the practice squad.  

 

Like I said when they signed Sharty and Sherfield last year........their relatively long histories said they were NOT going to produce........and sure enough, they did not.  

 

The Bills need someone with more than one season where they weren't otherwise trash.

Sharty  lol

[Alphadawg7]

1 hour ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I don't understand how you can't grasp this. We WILL be doing that.

 

We have to replace half of our WR core. We'll be Drafting 2 WR's, using our 1st Round Pick to fill our hole at WR2.

 

But to say Draft all 3 of them would be to have 4/6 of our WR Core next year having a combined ZERO reps of Regular Season NFL action. That's entirely too risky.

 

You might be fine with that, but there's no chance Brandon Beane (or any NFL GM) would be cool with having 4/6 of his WR core being complete unknowns at the next level. Having even half of the core with no experience represents the absolute top end of what a GM would do. And Cover 1, @BADOLBILZ, and myself are already calling for that.

 

To your point of Draft and Develop, with the 2 Draft Picks along with Shakir and Shorter - that would represent 4 of our 6 WR's being players that we Drafted and will be developing or have developed already.

 

But we need someone with experience and known production to provide insurance to the unknowns and also provide more productivity in the reserve role than Sherfield or Harty provided. As well as provide someone who can be trusted in the event of injury.

 

Noah Brown or Josh Reynolds aren't "bargain bin". They're a step above that. Neither will come as cheap as Sherfield was and they're better players. Not so much that it's going to hamper us, but not so little that they can be considered "bargain bin".

 

This idea that unless it's a super expensive WR1 or a Draft Pick, it's a waste of resources and is destined to provide nothing is incredibly simple minded. Just bc Sherfield or Harty didn't work out doesn't immediately equate to a Brown or Reynolds being the same. Especially since they're better players.

 

 

Again, I don't think anyone's suggesting we don't Draft a WR in Round 1. Or that we sign a big ticket FA WR (we really can't).

 

But we can't fill all 3 of our holes at WR with just Draft Picks and have everyone on our WR core not named Diggs or Shakir combining to a total of 0 regular season snaps.

 

It's not a situation of us having to do one thing or the other. Draft 2, sign 1.

 

Maybe you meant this for someone else, because I have said all along we are going to likely sign one, possibly 2 vet WR FA's.  What I have said is I do not think we will be signing any of the top WR targets like a Mike Evans that gets mentioned so often here, unless of course one of them wants to play here cheap for a ring.  But Mike already has a ring, so I doubt he goes anywhere cheap to chase a ring.  

 

The impact player at WR is going to be someone we target via the draft.  And I do think its possible we draft 2 WR's given that this is a rich draft, Diggs is getting up in age, and any vet FA signings are likely to be short contracts.  

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Maybe you meant this for someone else, because I have said all along we are going to likely sign one, possibly 2 vet WR FA's.  What I have said is I do not think we will be signing any of the top WR targets like a Mike Evans that gets mentioned so often here, unless of course one of them wants to play here cheap for a ring.  But Mike already has a ring, so I doubt he goes anywhere cheap to chase a ring.  

 

The impact player at WR is going to be someone we target via the draft.  And I do think its possible we draft 2 WR's given that this is a rich draft, Diggs is getting up in age, and any vet FA signings are likely to be short contracts.  

 

I must have misunderstood your post. 

 

I took that you were saying what the other poster was, in that if it we can't get one of those top level FA's (and we can't), that we're better off just Drafting. 

 

I didn't realize you were simply speaking to WR2 and were open to signing a vet or vets to fill out the core, unlike the other poster I was replying to. My apologies.

[ChronicAndKnuckles]

On 2/22/2024 at 9:06 AM, TheyCallMeAndy said:

To piggy back off this, the best, most consistent players we have on defense were not big FAs or first/second round picks.

 

Milano - R5

Bernard - R3

Hyde - Not a top tier FA

Poyer - Wasn’t even considered a good player when we signed him. 

Jones - Solid, but not a top tier FA

Benford - R6

Douglas - Really struggled early in his career, R3 pick traded. 
Dodson - UDFA 

Johnson - R4 

Epenesa - R2

 

Ed looked good last year, but took 2-3 years to develop.

 

Groot looks good. 
 

Edmunds took 2-3 years to develop into a game manager MLB. 

 

Never heard a position other than QB called a game manager 😂