Cover 1's Top Free Agent Fits for the Bills

[BuffaloRebound]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not talking about looking to free agency for an upgrade to Davis. I don't think you will find one for a price the Bills can go to. Shakir and Kincaid are slot guys. I'm talking about if you think Diggs is still an elite option or close to it outside then you can fly with 2 or 3 guys (2 picks plus possibly Shorter) who have never played a down of NFL football. If you think there is a decline in Diggs game then it is probably wise to at least have another veteran option who can offer you something early in the season while you phase some young guys in. I don't expect that guy to be an upgrade on Gabe. Not at all. I expect that guy to be an upgrade on Sherfield or the year before on Kumerow. Your long term #2 (and hopefully long term #1) has to be the drafted guy. But if you have a somewhat diminished #1 and a #2 that takes some time to get up to speed your passing game is going to suffer in the short term. You would need someone else to pick up some slack.

Agree with this.  We won’t be shopping in the 1st or even 2nd wave of free agency for WR but if we don’t get a 1st round WR, I think we’d be a popular destination for a free agent WR on a 1 year deal that didn’t get the money they wanted in the 1st and 2nd wave of free agency. 

[pennstate10]

11 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

There is a long distance between not treating boundary WR like it's the clear #1 need and "ignoring" it.

 

I know that some people look at the draft.........decide what the order they think the players will fall and which needs will be filled.........and THEN figure out how they want to address free agency based on that.

 

That's not the order the system works in though.

 

The reality is that the Bills could pass on signing one of the WR's that are available in FA...........and then get to the draft and 6 WR's go before their pick and the next boundary WR on their board has a late second round grade.    That's kinda' like what happened last year.   Kincaid was the pivot and he's nice but what they pivoted from is still what they need.

 

I'd rather have a high ceiling veteran free agent in place and then have a top WR option end up at pick #28 than to risk not getting one at all because I wanted to try to patch holes on defense first.

 

 

A quality WR2 is going to get a $12-15 million per year contract. You could push some of that into the future, but then 2025-26 become worse cap years. 
 

I don’t think Bills have cap space to sign a quality WR2, and other minor FA pickups or resigning (DL, S). 
 

Bills could sign a lesser quality FA WR, which is what I think they do. 

[Alphadawg7]

13 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

It kinda' speaks to your thread about how people aren't fully appreciating having a Josh Allen.

 

Some fans are so concerned with patching "on paper" holes that they don't really care if that means putting another ton of hard miles on Josh Allen.

 

The main objective of an organization with a truly elite young QB should be to make sure you do everything you can to maximize his ability.

 

They've tried the "other" approach for the last 3 seasons and it's only buried them in cap debt.

 

Probably time to try to put an offense around Allen that can score 35 points per game and at the same time get cap healthier and much younger on defense.

 

Maybe that means they are on a 2 year re-tool instead of running it back to a re-match with the Chiefs next season...........but then again maybe they do the right thing and STILL surprise and play better than expected on defense and finally break thru.

 

 

 

 

You have this wrong, at least for the bulk of this board because you are missing the point that most people understand Beane can't really (and likely isn't) spending big on a WR in free agency, and that we will certainly address WR in this deep WR draft where we have like 10 picks to land probably 2 prospects with one early and another in the mid rounds.  

 

We don't have the cap luxury of going out and paying a top FA WR.  So its not at all that people are concerned with "patching" holes to ignore WR, its that we can patch a lot of those other holes cheaply in FA elsewhere and aggressively address WR in the draft as well as other young talent to hopefully compete or develop into starters at those other patch spots.

 

And not only is that what everyone else is thinking, that is almost certainly exactly what is going to happen.  Beane is not spending big on a FA WR...we are MUCH more likely to sign someone like a Noah Brown than a Mike Evans then go get a WR in round 1 or 2 depending on how the draft falls and probably another between rounds 3 and 5 again depending on the board falls.  

 

Free Agency should be to "patch" holes then you look for your young big upside talent in the draft and hope you find someone that both contributes this year and develops into a succession plan for Diggs. 

 

[Nephilim17]

Good watch. The Brandon Jones, safety, section was intriguing. He's only 25 and moves well and hits hard (at least according to their highlights and analysis). Wouldn't mind him on an affordable deal.

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I am not talking about looking to free agency for an upgrade to Davis. I don't think you will find one for a price the Bills can go to. Shakir and Kincaid are slot guys. I'm talking about if you think Diggs is still an elite option or close to it outside then you can fly with 2 or 3 guys (2 picks plus possibly Shorter) who have never played a down of NFL football. If you think there is a decline in Diggs game then it is probably wise to at least have another veteran option who can offer you something early in the season while you phase some young guys in. I don't expect that guy to be an upgrade on Gabe. Not at all. I expect that guy to be an upgrade on Sherfield or the year before on Kumerow. Your long term #2 (and hopefully long term #1) has to be the drafted guy. But if you have a somewhat diminished #1 and a #2 that takes some time to get up to speed your passing game is going to suffer in the short term. You would need someone else to pick up some slack.

By the way, I went and looked at how the rookie WRs performed from the last 5 drafts who were drafted from 20-40.  There were 16 players including Deebo, Aiyuk, Jefferson, Flowers, Addison, Higgins, and Pittman.  The best performers as rookies were Jefferson, Addison, Higgins, Flowers, and Samuel, but the average was solid at 51 catches for 635 yards and 4 TDs. 

 

The last time the Bills got that kind of performance from a FA boundary WR was 2021 from Emmanuel Sanders and he cost $6 mill that season.

[GunnerBill]

13 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

By the way, I went and looked at how the rookie WRs performed from the last 5 drafts who were drafted from 20-40.  There were 16 players including Deebo, Aiyuk, Jefferson, Flowers, Addison, Higgins, and Pittman.  The best performers as rookies were Jefferson, Addison, Higgins, Flowers, and Samuel, but the average was solid at 51 catches for 635 yards and 4 TDs. 

 

The last time the Bills got that kind of performance from a FA boundary WR was 2021 from Emmanuel Sanders and he cost $6 mill that season.

 

You are missing the point. I am not arguing they should signa boundary receiver to be the #2 ahead of a draft pick. That isn't my argument.

[GASabresIUFan]

9 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You are missing the point. I am not arguing they should signa boundary receiver to be the #2 ahead of a draft pick. That isn't my argument.

I understand your argument.  You’d like a veteran insurance policy in case the rookie early draft pick isn’t ready to contribute right away.  
 

Unfortunately I don’t think that player exists for a price we can afford.  Might as well add Sherfield to the practice squad

[BuffaloRebound]

5 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I understand your argument.  You’d like a veteran insurance policy in case the rookie early draft pick isn’t ready to contribute right away.  
 

Unfortunately I don’t think that player exists for a price we can afford.  Might as well add Sherfield to the practice squad

There are always guys in free agency that don’t get what they think they’re worth in the first couple waves of free agency and decide a 1 year $6m deal with a Josh Allen throwing to them is their best bet.  

[boyst]

23 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

You are missing the point. I am not arguing they should signa boundary receiver to be the #2 ahead of a draft pick. That isn't my argument.

would you take Shrefield at $1.5mm/1yr, Davis @ $9.5mm/yr for 3.

 

either or...

 

anyone can answer...

[Logic]

The thing I'm most looking forward to in free agency is seeing how they fill the safety spot that I assume is going to need filling after Hyde retires/departs.

If they wanted, they could also move on from Poyer and just flip to a fresh page completely at safety, though they may prefer to stagger it by one year, thus allowing Poyer to transfer his years of wisdom in this scheme to whomever they sign/draft at the position.

Anyway...Poyer and Hyde were both such good finds in free agency. Both former corners, both overlooked on the free agent market. A 7th rounder and fringe special teams player and a 5th rounder without a home position that no one seemed to want. Both became stars, Pro Bowlers, and All-Pros. I think/hope they're gonna go do a similar thing in free agency this year.

I have a feeling that whoever they pick will be met with apathy, confusion, or disinterest by many Bills fans. Rather than a big named former high round pick, they may roll with someone lesser known who they've identified as having the skillset necessary to thrive in their scheme. A repeat of the Jordan Poyer signing, so to speak.

 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

50 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

By the way, I went and looked at how the rookie WRs performed from the last 5 drafts who were drafted from 20-40.  There were 16 players including Deebo, Aiyuk, Jefferson, Flowers, Addison, Higgins, and Pittman.  The best performers as rookies were Jefferson, Addison, Higgins, Flowers, and Samuel, but the average was solid at 51 catches for 635 yards and 4 TDs. 

 

The last time the Bills got that kind of performance from a FA boundary WR was 2021 from Emmanuel Sanders and he cost $6 mill that season.

That's exactly what we need, E. Sanders 2.0. 

He was good/great in 2021. I see quite a few guys in that price range who can be that player. Samuel being #1. 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

Just noticed the all time NFL single season reception leader on the list. 

Mike Thomas.

38 catches last year, could be a cheap-esque 1 year deal. 30 years old. 

[Warriorspikes51]

8 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

That's exactly what we need, E. Sanders 2.0. 

He was good/great in 2021. I see quite a few guys in that price range who can be that player. Samuel being #1. 

With that idea in mind,  IMO this is fairly realistic

Diggs = Diggs
Franklin > John Brown

C. Samuel = E. Sanders 
Shakir = Beasley 

2 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Just noticed the all time NFL single season reception leader on the list. 

Mike Thomas.

38 catches last year, could be a cheap-esque 1 year deal. 30 years old. 

I've been wondering about him, I thought he was still under contract with the Saints?  If the guy is healthy I'm interested 

EDIT:  He's not a UFA  
 

"Thomas has played just 20 games in the last four seasons, has found himself in conflict with his Saints bosses, and last season settled for a salary reduction from $15.5 million to $1.165 million (but with a massive roster bonus of $32 million as part of some cap manipulation, still a sign of a coming goodbye). He did manage to play in 10 games and caught 39 balls for one TD, so he was largely insignificant."
https://www.si.com/nfl/cowboys/news/dallas-cowboys-blockbuster-trade-new-orleans-saints-michael-thomas-proposed-media-move-fit-rumor-dak-prescott

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/39539615/saints-offseason-jameis-winston-michael-thomas-rashid-shaheed-more

WR Michael Thomas

Thomas isn't a free agent, but he has major roster bonuses built into his contract that would facilitate a release. Thomas was once a key part of the Saints' offense, but he hasn't played a full season since 2019. Thomas was also arrested last season after an altercation with a local contractor over a parking issue in his neighborhood.

Thomas played 10 games in the 2023 season before being placed on injured reserve for the rest of the season with a right knee injury. Considering his salary and his injury history, he likely could be looking for a fresh start.

2024 status: Under contract

What the Saints might do: Likely release

Edited February 23 by Warriorspikes51

[GunnerBill]

19 minutes ago, boyst said:

would you take Shrefield at $1.5mm/1yr, Davis @ $9.5mm/yr for 3.

 

either or...

 

anyone can answer...

 

Not sure I fully understand the question.

 

But I think Gabe is getting more than that. Sherfield as a last resort, yes. But I'd hope we can set our sights a tad higher than that.

[Warriorspikes51]

4 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not sure I fully understand the question.

 

But I think Gabe is getting more than that. Sherfield as a last resort, yes. But I'd hope we can set our sights a tad higher than that.

This would be unacceptable IMO

[boyst]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Not sure I fully understand the question.

 

But I think Gabe is getting more than that. Sherfield as a last resort, yes. But I'd hope we can set our sights a tad higher than that.

would you rather sign Davis for $10.5mm/yr for 3 years or Sherfield for $6mm, 1 yr?

[Logic]

Five guys that I would be looking at:

P Matt Araiza. Big leg, legally free and clear, handsome.
WR Gabe Davis. Big-bodied, downfield threat. Just needs a real opportunity to be a WR2 for someone.
LB Tremaine Edmunds. What he does for you in the pass game simply cannot be quantified by statistics. Still just 25 years old. Probably trending up.
DE Carlos "Boogie" Basham. Positional versatility. Very cool name. Non-stop motor. 
CB Levi Wallace. You can never have enough late round corners with mediocre athleticism and above average zone awareness who never intercept the football.

Get 'er done, Big Baller Beane. 


 

[GunnerBill]

23 minutes ago, boyst said:

would you rather sign Davis for $10.5mm/yr for 3 years or Sherfield for $6mm, 1 yr?

 

Of those two options at those prices it is Gabe, no question. But I think he will get more than $10.5m too. 

[JohnBonhamRocks]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Five guys that I would be looking at:

P Matt Araiza. Big leg, legally free and clear, handsome.
WR Gabe Davis. Big-bodied, downfield threat. Just needs a real opportunity to be a WR2 for someone.
LB Tremaine Edmunds. What he does for you in the pass game simply cannot be quantified by statistics. Still just 25 years old. Probably trending up.
DE Carlos "Boogie" Basham. Positional versatility. Very cool name. Non-stop motor. 
CB Levi Wallace. You can never have enough late round corners with mediocre athleticism and above average zone awareness who never intercept the football.

Get 'er done, Big Baller Beane. 


 

With the cap increase, let’s see if we can go 5/5!

[boyst]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Five guys that I would be looking at:

P Matt Araiza. Big leg, legally free and clear, handsome.
WR Gabe Davis. Big-bodied, downfield threat. Just needs a real opportunity to be a WR2 for someone.
LB Tremaine Edmunds. What he does for you in the pass game simply cannot be quantified by statistics. Still just 25 years old. Probably trending up.
DE Carlos "Boogie" Basham. Positional versatility. Very cool name. Non-stop motor. 
CB Levi Wallace. You can never have enough late round corners with mediocre athleticism and above average zone awareness who never intercept the football.

Get 'er done, Big Baller Beane. 


 

you forogt McKenzie