Is it time to grow concerned about Greg Rousseau?

[GoBills808]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

Hm, I don’t think so. I think the homeruns CAN come from anywhere, but I gotta figure your best chance is still in the first 60 picks.

 

To me, Benford, Bernard (so far), Shakir are all good picks. It’s great to get NFL talent in the late rounds. None of them are homeruns. 
 

To me, a homerun is “would this player have been a great pick no matter what round you took them in.” Milano was a homerun. He’s a more impressive homerun bc he was a fifth rounder, but if he was a late second rounder, he’d still be a phenomenal pick. 
 

If you look at the difference between us and KC, or the Niners, they have way more homeruns, not just solid picks. It’s the one black mark against Beane. The best year of players this regime has brought in was unquestionably 2017. White, Milano, Dawkins, Poyer, Hyde have been 5 of our 7 best players for 7 years. It’s why the roster is old. It’s why the cap needs to be stretched now. 
 

Greg is just another guy we hoped could be one of our best players but isn’t.

There are a lot of top edge guys who go late

 

They can be found

[Robert Paulson]

On 2/19/2024 at 10:20 AM, UConn James said:

I’d like to see how he does with a new DL coach. Eric Washington was given a lot of prime resources and we saw little return until Ed came on this year.

agreed, never bought the hype on Washington. the d line consistently underachieved for the amount of investment made. 

[somnus00]

I like Rousseau. Elite run defender as a DE. Okay as a pass rusher. The tricky part is the money. The 5th year option means a sizeable bump in pay, which then creates an expectation for the next contract. If my understanding is correct, the 5th year option for Groot would put him at the average of the 3 - 25 highest paid DEs in the league. Is he worth that much?

[Sweats]

Just now, somnus00 said:

I like Rousseau. Elite run defender as a DE. Okay as a pass rusher. The tricky part is the money. The 5th year option means a sizeable bump in pay, which then creates an expectation for the next contract. If my understanding is correct, the 5th year option for Groot would put him at the average of the 3 - 25 highest paid DEs in the league. Is he worth that much?

 

 

 

 

And, that's the dilemma we're having on the boards these days.....what do you pay him if you want to extend him?....what's he worth?

 

I think ole Beane is gonna spin his wheel-o-loot and see what he comes up with. To me, that's how i envision how he crunches the numbers.....i might be wrong.

[BaaadThingsMan]

Nah

[Aussie Joe]

42 minutes ago, somnus00 said:

I like Rousseau. Elite run defender as a DE. Okay as a pass rusher. The tricky part is the money. The 5th year option means a sizeable bump in pay, which then creates an expectation for the next contract. If my understanding is correct, the 5th year option for Groot would put him at the average of the 3 - 25 highest paid DEs in the league. Is he worth that much?

I thought it was more .. but The 5th year option is projected at $13.7m… it’s affordable and given the state of the DE room at the moment … Im pretty sure he will get it …

https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections

 

[JaCrispy]

1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:

I thought it was more .. but The 5th year option is projected at $13.7m… it’s affordable and given the state of the DE room at the moment … Im pretty sure he will get it …

https://overthecap.com/fifth-year-option-projections

 

After the 5th year option, I would do a 4 yr/60 mil extension- which is similar to Oliver’s deal…Not great, but solid players…👍

[Aussie Joe]

Just now, JaCrispy said:

After the 5th year option, I would do a 4 yr/60 mil extension- which is similar to Oliver’s deal…Not great, but solid players…👍

At the very least … the 5th year option buys them more time to work out the future for Rousseau… 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

He's worth picking up the 5th year option. 

He's not worth an extension

Best case is probably a 4th round comp pick after that

[Buffalo_Stampede]

6 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

He's worth picking up the 5th year option. 

He's not worth an extension

Best case is probably a 4th round comp pick after that

Fans have to get over the “all or nothing” mentality.

 

We will sign middle tier players. Rousseau as a $20 million edge is worth it. He’s good at everything. He’s exactly what you extend. I would compare him to Dion Dawkins after year 3-4. You extend Dawkins because he was  good at everything and played one of the top positions in the league. Dawkins wasn’t great at anything but had no weaknesses. At the time of signing he was the 5th highest paid LT. Now his contract looks like a bargain.

 

You sign these guys to top 5-10 contracts at their position. Soon they fall down the rankings. These are the players you love to keep. All around good players and won’t break the bank. 
 

If we compare to Edmunds. Edmunds was not all around a good player. He had limitations. The GM talked about those limitations publicly. He also played a position that imo is plug and play like RB. You can find LBs easily if you want one.

Edited February 21 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Ethan in Cleveland]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Fans have to get over the “all or nothing” mentality.

 

We will sign middle tier players. Rousseau as a $20 million edge is worth it. He’s good at everything. He’s exactly what you extend. I would compare him to Dion Dawkins after year 3-4. You extend Dawkins because he was  good at everything and played one of the top positions in the league. Dawkins wasn’t great at anything but had no weaknesses. At the time of signing he was the 5th highest paid LT. Now his contract looks like a bargain.

 

You sign these guys to top 5-10 contracts at their position. Soon they fall down the rankings. These are the players you love to keep. All around good players and won’t break the bank. 
 

If we compare to Edmunds. Edmunds was not all around a good player. He had limitations. The GM talked about those limitations publicly. He also played a position that imo is plug and play like RB. You can find LBs easily if you want one.

He is a good player. He is just not a good enough pass rusher. Davis is good too. But neither have shown enough to warrant long term investment. They can replace with cheaper talent two years from now. And if he explodes over the next 2 years then tag him.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

32 minutes ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

He is a good player. He is just not a good enough pass rusher. Davis is good too. But neither have shown enough to warrant long term investment. They can replace with cheaper talent two years from now. And if he explodes over the next 2 years then tag him.

Davis? As in Gabe Davis?

 

Davis is the exact opposite. What in the world are we doing here?

Where does Rousseau hurt the defense? We never complain about Rousseau. All we say is he hasn’t taken the next step as an elite pass rusher. Gabe Davis many believe hurts the offense, or holds back the offense.

It’s easy to replace Rousseau? Read the board, all we talk about is all the edge players we draft or sign. It’s not easy. I wish we had more Rousseau’s. Epenesa is a lot like Gabe Davis. He hurts the defense but has big plays at times. He can’t defend the run. He is inconsistent as a pass rusher. Can’t set the edge. 

Edited February 21 by Buffalo_Stampede

[SoTier]

 

21 hours ago, BillMafia716ix said:

He needs to become more of pass rusher. He’s a good run defender but you want your edge guys to get after the QB

 

Sacks aren't the only measure of a DE's pass rushing ability.  Rousseau does get after the QB.   He not only had 18 QB hits in 2023, but he also disrupted passing lanes, forced QBs to hurry passes, and knocked down passes.   More importantly, Rousseau is a good all-around DLer who plays the run well.  Teams need those kinds of DEs as well.

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

[FilthyBeast]

Just thinking more about Groot and this dline as a whole, the fact that this GM and defensive minded head coach has never drafted a player that has managed double digits sacks in a season has me dumbfounded. Yes Floyd did it this year as a FA (despite next to nothing the 2nd half of the season and playoffs) and Miller was certainly on pace for it before his injury in 2022, but all these other draft picks really haven't come close except for Oliver this year.

 

And that's what scares me most about the draft this year because I'm willing to bet they go dline once again in the first round despite all the talk about WR and other areas of need.

[SoTier]

3 hours ago, FilthyBeast said:

Just thinking more about Groot and this dline as a whole, the fact that this GM and defensive minded head coach has never drafted a player that has managed double digits sacks in a season has me dumbfounded. Yes Floyd did it this year as a FA (despite next to nothing the 2nd half of the season and playoffs) and Miller was certainly on pace for it before his injury in 2022, but all these other draft picks really haven't come close except for Oliver this year.

 

And that's what scares me most about the draft this year because I'm willing to bet they go dline once again in the first round despite all the talk about WR and other areas of need.

 

The Bills use a DL rotation so their best Dlinemen don't get as many reps as the best Dlinemen on teams that usually only sub when necessary.   That can certainly impact sack stats, especially for guys who miss a couple of games or who play hurt for several games.   I don't know which philosophy is best, but the Bills system works for them with the players they have and seem to like; they had a sound defense this past season despite suffering key injuries on defense.   It may be that Beane and McDermott envision a defense where the whole is greater than the sum of the individual parts.

 

As for the draft, I doubt that the Bills draft a DE in the first round simply because the edge rushers with 1st round grades will be long gone when the Bills get their shot.  I wouldn't be surprised to see them use a later pick on one, however.   When they realized that Edmunds wasn't going to be the guy at MLB they drafted him to be, they drafted Bernard in the third round in 2022. 

[Monty98]

Just to throw this out in regards to how raw of a DE he is...this will be his 6th season at DE. He was a LB/S in highschool and WR. At Miami he moved to DE. He's still learning how to play the position as a pass rusher. He is a player you extend as his second contract will be where his talent and ability will be fully honed in and will be a game changer. 8-10 sacks a year will be a bench for him, plus the ability to set your edge. He's your ideal DE, edge setter and can rush the passer effectively. 

[billsfan89]

He's a quality edge player, not a game changer but a good starter, with his 5th-year option I would hope the Bills pick it up and lock him in for 2 more seasons. Two more seasons of good production are nice to have at a critical position. I suspect the front office will approach the situation as they did with Ed Oliver, allow him to play out his 4th season, and assess his production and offer him a quality extension if he shows more progress in year four. 

[John from Riverside]

20 hours ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

He's worth picking up the 5th year option. 

He's not worth an extension

Best case is probably a 4th round comp pick after that

That is absolutely not the best case
 

The best case is that he turns into an top edge rusher in the league can we pay him accordingly?

 

People are getting a little bit carried away with this comp formula thing. The cases are whenever you draft players groom them and retain them because they’re good.

[Ethan in Cleveland]

21 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

That is absolutely not the best case
 

The best case is that he turns into an top edge rusher in the league can we pay him accordingly?

 

People are getting a little bit carried away with this comp formula thing. The cases are whenever you draft players groom them and retain them because they’re good.

He's never going to be a top edge rusher. He would have shown that by now.

But on the off chance he will then you can tag him. He has two years at a reasonable price to prove he is anything more than an average DE.

The comp pick is just added bonus for not taking on another bloated contract for an average player. 

I assume you are happy they got an extra third round pick by letting Edmunds walk. 

 

[John from Riverside]

1 hour ago, Ethan in Cleveland said:

He's never going to be a top edge rusher. He would have shown that by now.

But on the off chance he will then you can tag him. He has two years at a reasonable price to prove he is anything more than an average DE.

The comp pick is just added bonus for not taking on another bloated contract for an average player. 

I assume you are happy they got an extra third round pick by letting Edmunds walk. 

 

Gregory Russo is not an average player they do more than just rush the passer