Is it time to grow concerned about Greg Rousseau?

[Logic]

2 hours ago, Sweats said:

 

 

 

All good points, sir...however, do you pay the man at contract time or let him walk?

 

Are you going to pay him for what he has done, for what he is or what he might do? Each of these possibilities provide a different number at contract time and are we willing to pay for what he might become, when we have already seen what he is.....any of this making sense to you?....lol.

Yeah, that's a great question and I'm glad I'm not the one who has to answer it.

I think the unknown variable is also that we don't know what Rousseau's camp will be asking for. If he goes out and misses 3 games next year with injury and gets 6.5 sacks again...is his camp really gonna try to ask for top market edge rusher money? I don't know the answer to that.

I imagine Beane will set a certain amount that he's comfortable paying and, like usual, he won't exceed that amount. This is what happened with Edmunds. If some other team comes along that IS willing to exceed that amount -- as the Bears did with Edmunds -- then I imagine Rousseau will be gone.

That said, the Bills seem to have paid Ed Oliver a pretty fair amount in between what he HAD done and what they thought he COULD do, and he came through this year and had a really nice season. So...certainly a tough question, and there's precedent in both directions. Glad I'm not the one who has to make these decisions.

[HappyDays]

1 minute ago, FireChans said:

Dawkins is our best OL man. You think that’s the most favorable matchup for Chris Jones?

 

Any 1v1 matchup late in the game is the most favorable matchup for Chris Jones. Outside of a few truly elite offensive linemen, which Dawkins is not. And yeah I believe coaching put him in that position. Our coaching had AJ Klein trying to stop Travis Kelce for 3 quarters.

[Shaw66]

11 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

Both are true. The defense has let the team down in the playoffs primarily because of poor scheme, play calling, and personnel decisions. Many people on here will disagree with this, but the evidence is right there on the film. So adding more defensive players early in the draft isn't going to solve the more fundamental problem.

 

The offense on the other hand, when it (rarely) falters in the playoffs it is primarily personnel issues.

 

Well, if I were to agree with your assessment of the defense, I'd have to join the folks who want McDermott moved out.  And it gives me cause, because I can see that you're correct.   Certainly 13 seconds was on coaching.  This year's loss was partly on coaching, but I think largely on personnel - no pass rush and no depth at linebacker. 

 

Offense, on the other hand, I think has been primarily scheme and playcalling.  I think, for example, the 2023 roster underperformed - that is, with the very good offensive coaching (scheme, playcalling) the 2023 roster would have been a consistently dominant offense, instead of occasionally dominant.  

[Alphadawg7]

9 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

This is really good.  Thanks.   But it highlights my point, and I'd be interested in you comments.

 

I think it's very clear that McDermott's approach to defense is to be very good across the board, so that over the course of the season the defense is performing as it should - low yards per game and low points per game.  He wants to get pressure with four men rushing.  He believes the best way to get defensive production on the line by rotating 8 or 9, thereby keeping them fresh and changing the look of the defense.  

 

Rousseau, and Oliver as you point out, are not stars at their positions, but they do more or less everything at a high level.   They fit perfectly into what McDermott wants.   He doesn't want a guy who's so good that he demands 85% of the snaps, but he loves having guys who demand 60% and you can afford to have off the field once in a while.  

 

However, that system means there's no room for a Chris Jones, a Bosa, a Watt, or pick a few others (or a Von Miller in his prime).  What that means is that the defensive line lineup doesn't include a big-play playmaker, the guy who them game is on the line sometimes will just make a play to win the game.  That may not matter much in the regular season, because if the defense is putting up the numbers McDermott wants, over the course of the season the Bills will win enough that one game won by a super player making a super play just doesn't matter as much as the consistency this defense produces.  But in the playoffs, you want one of those guys, because the averages don't matter so much when it's winner-take-all.  

 

I'm not sure I know what to do about that.  Will McDermott change his defense a bit to make room for a real stud defensive lineman?  Actually, the Bills don't have the draft capital or the cap room to get one of those players, so it doesn't really matter.  But philosophically, it's a point that bothers me a lot, because it keeps appearing across the lineup.  I know the Niners are unusual, but their offense has three stud skill players, Pro Bowl level.   The Bills have one, if you're willing to put Diggs there.   The Chiefs come at you with Jones and with Kelce, two stud players, one on each side.  

 

Beane and McDermott seem to think this team doesn't need studs.  What do you think?

 

I get what you are saying, and yeah, that is a lot of what McD likes, however, we have made moves to try and find that impact player now multiple times. 

 

First, they took Oliver 9th overall hoping they were finding baby Darnold.   Then they took AJE who was the top DE in that draft by most accounts (weak edge rusher year) and they followed that up with going DE in back to back picks with Groot and Boogie.  Then when they still had not really got that closer guy established yet from those attempts, they took a big swing that Von was going to be that difference maker in a win now move. 

 

And at first Von was before he got hurt.  Anyone expecting much from Von in 2023 after tearing his ACL at his age was just fooling themselves.  It most often takes a player until the season after they comeback until they are closer to who they were before the injury.  

 

However, Von is like 79 years old now, so while odds are he will have more value this year, it is a stretch to think he can get back to being that impact guy.  

 

So I see a FO that has been very obvious at trying to find an impact player in both the draft and FA to get to the QB now for several years.  They also went out and signed Floyd who has been a very good pass rusher for a while too.  I think the issue is that when we are picking late most season it is just hard to get a premium edge prospect as they all go very early in drafts.  Instead we are left with guys with potential versus guys who are premium prospects.  

 

This is why I think they have found guys who are more solid to good starters/players vs game changers like a Chris Jones.  

 

 

[Shaw66]

17 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

I get what you are saying, and yeah, that is a lot of what McD likes, however, we have made moves to try and find that impact player now multiple times. 

 

First, they took Oliver 9th overall hoping they were finding baby Darnold.   Then they took AJE who was the top DE in that draft by most accounts (weak edge rusher year) and they followed that up with going DE in back to back picks with Groot and Boogie.  Then when they still had not really got that closer guy established yet from those attempts, they took a big swing that Von was going to be that difference maker in a win now move. 

 

And at first Von was before he got hurt.  Anyone expecting much from Von in 2023 after tearing his ACL at his age was just fooling themselves.  It most often takes a player until the season after they comeback until they are closer to who they were before the injury.  

 

However, Von is like 79 years old now, so while odds are he will have more value this year, it is a stretch to think he can get back to being that impact guy.  

 

So I see a FO that has been very obvious at trying to find an impact player in both the draft and FA to get to the QB now for several years.  They also went out and signed Floyd who has been a very good pass rusher for a while too.  I think the issue is that when we are picking late most season it is just hard to get a premium edge prospect as they all go very early in drafts.  Instead we are left with guys with potential versus guys who are premium prospects.  

 

This is why I think they have found guys who are more solid to good starters/players vs game changers like a Chris Jones.  

 

 

Thanks, I agree.  

 

But - Beane certainly knows that he isn't going to get a premium edge guy late in the first round.   I think it's more that McDermott wants these guys - guys who are versatile.   I don't think they've kept drafting d linemen because they hope to hit a homerun.   I think they have more or less the stable they wanted.  

 

Personally, I'm counting on Von being back.   He only has to play 50% of the snaps, he's got a great body in great condition.   If the Bills knew for sure he'd be back like something like the old Von, well, damn, that would go a long way to satisfy my concerns. 

[akcash]

He has shown flashes of greatness. Against I believe it was the steelers he was showing off some pretty impressive moves. However probably have freedom to do that when QB isn't mobile. 

 

Hes got elite elite tools. So his ceiling is as high as anybodys.

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Im not saying there is nothing to be concerned about, I am just saying I am not overly concerned...yet.  Like I said, with Von being a waste and losing Jones, Tre, and Milano to still finish 4th in sacks was pretty darn good for the Bills.  And with the way McD aggressively rotates, sometimes someone's numbers will dip.  

 

Jerry Hughes averaged 9 sacks per season for 4 years before Frazier got here and his first year in Houston after leaving Buffalo (where he got 9 after everyone said he was washed).  Under Frazier, which was also saw a lot of rotation up front, Hughes only averaged 4.5 sacks over 5 seasons never getting more than 7.   And again, put up 9 his first year in Houston at the end of his career.

 

So, makes me wonder, how much of it is Greg and how much of it is the system he is in that rotates a lot of guys around and sacks tend to be spread around?  And I can't help but wonder what his season looks like if Jones, Tre, and Milano don't miss much of the season or if Von was actually useful.  

 

FWIW:  Greg had 3 sacks in his first 4 games.  We lost Tre week 3 and Jones and Milano week 4.  He only had 2 sacks rest of season.  4 games is a small sample size, but 3 in 4 games is a pace for 13 on the season.  

He played more snaps this year than ever in his career IIRC.

[Alphadawg7]

14 minutes ago, FireChans said:

He played more snaps this year than ever in his career IIRC.

 

Fair point, but he also was on pace for 13 sacks before all the injuries around him.  And again, other guys were getting sacks, and as a team we had the 4th most.  Lot of people had these same concerns about Oliver too.  

[BullBuchanan]

Nothing to be concerned about. He's a good not, great player. He's arguably "too good", in that he'll be too expensive to keep. These guys should be recycled every 5 years via the draft. It's why it's so important to be good at drafting if you want to stay competitive.

Pick up his 5th year option, draft a replacement next year and dump him for anything more than $14M a year

[Aussie Joe]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Any 1v1 matchup late in the game is the most favorable matchup for Chris Jones. Outside of a few truly elite offensive linemen, which Dawkins is not. 

The thing about Chris Jones though is that he is probably the most disruptive Defensive player in the game at the moment  at the peak of his powers … he made a similar game defining play in the SB…

One of the biggest things that can happen this offseason  in respect of the fortunes of the Buffalo Bills in 2024 is that Jones goes to another team in FA…

[Billl]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

Fair enough. 
 

Talking strictly in the regular season, it concerns me that Greg, a physically dominant specimen and first round talent in year 3, can’t separate himself from old vets like a Leonard Floyd or guys like AJE.

The reason for optimism with him for me is that he has steadily increased his number of QB hits each season.  Generally speaking, that means the sacks will come.  Alternatively, it’s why I’m not as high on what Oliver did this season.  His sack total increased dramatically, but his number of QB hits was the same as it’s always been which tells me that this season was likely a bit of an outlier.

 

I wouldn’t be surprised at all if Rousseau were to lead the team in sacks next year.  In fact I kind of expect it.  If he never takes the next step, you let him walk after 2025 and draft his replacement.  Overall, he’s great value on his rookie contract but at his current level of play he isn’t the kind of guy you give a huge contract.  Setting the edge is great and all.  It’s like Davis blocking downfield.  But you pay DEs to kill QBs, and if you aren’t getting at least 8-10 sacks a season then you aren’t worth $20+ million IMO.

Edited February 20 by Billl

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Any 1v1 matchup late in the game is the most favorable matchup for Chris Jones. Outside of a few truly elite offensive linemen, which Dawkins is not. And yeah I believe coaching put him in that position. Our coaching had AJ Klein trying to stop Travis Kelce for 3 quarters.

Meh. I'm sure Oliver got some favorable matchups and just failed to make an impact. 

 

Stars make plays.

[amprov56]

No

[SoTier]

7 hours ago, FireChans said:

I liked Greg a lot coming out of college. Great physical traits with a lot of room to grow or low floor/high ceiling has been the Beane MO and I think it’s the right one. Josh, Edmunds, Rousseau, Elam have all fit that mold and when those players do hit, the benefit is that they are supposed to hit big.

 

But obviously we have been hit or miss in that first round. And perhaps even more bothersome, they have not hit “big” except for Josh. Edmunds is an NFL player but he wasn’t the defensive All-Pro they thought he was going to be. And Rousseau seems to be going that same road. 
 

I have this debate all the time on here about players “who can be 8-10 sack guys.” 8-10 sack guys are INCREDIBLY rare. It’s not very common for 6 sack guys to just become double digit sack guys because they play more or anything else. And Greg is that perfect example. He played 3 more games than last season and had 3 less sacks. He played more defensive snaps than he ever has in his career and a higher percentage of snaps. And his year was just… alright.
 

But anyway, besides that, we are running into the Edmunds problem where the fifth year option decision is coming. I would assume Greg is going to play on it, but based on his production, are we sure he is going to get an extension? Or is he going to be an Edmunds, where we let a solid player get overpaid by a bum franchise because the juice isn’t worth the squeeze?

 

7 hours ago, FireChans said:

 

The concern is what “good players” cost. Greg’s fifth year option is going to cost $13M. Danielle Hunter (a more productive but older player) is projected to get $20M AAV. What will Greg get the year after?
 

Do we pay Rousseau $20M a season to be a “good player?” 

 

Why do fans have to be "concerned" about Greg Rousseau at this point?    He's a good young player with 2 years left on his rookie contract at a bargain price for the level of his play if the Bills pick up his fifth year option (which they would do if he continues to play at his current level).  If Rousseau improves, then the Bills will extend him.  If he doesn't, then they'll let him walk so somebody else will overpay for him.   That's exactly what they did with Edmunds -- and i don't see how that can be seen as a "problem" since the Bills had Terrell Bernard ready to replace him.

 

FTR, most first round draft picks don't become "difference makers", especially those drafted late in the round.   Getting a good starting quality DE at the end of the first round who plays for five seasons is not a "miss", especially for a team that has to pay a veteran franchise QB.

[Your Brown Eye]

A lot more players to be more concerned about than Rousseau

[John from Riverside]

9 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He’s a very good player. What’s the concern? He defends everything. Good vs run and pass. He’s just not elite at anything yet.

I actually think that I would classify him as an edge run defender
 

Rush is still coming along

[hondo in seattle]

I've been concerned about Rousseau since we drafted him.  I'm not a college football fan but watched his highlights and had issues with his rawness and lack of power.  And he hasn't won me over since.  In my eyes, he's not a SB-caliber player, though I grant he's young-ish and may still be improving.    

[FireChans]

51 minutes ago, SoTier said:

 

 

Why do fans have to be "concerned" about Greg Rousseau at this point?    He's a good young player with 2 years left on his rookie contract at a bargain price for the level of his play if the Bills pick up his fifth year option (which they would do if he continues to play at his current level).  If Rousseau improves, then the Bills will extend him.  If he doesn't, then they'll let him walk so somebody else will overpay for him.   That's exactly what they did with Edmunds -- and i don't see how that can be seen as a "problem" since the Bills had Terrell Bernard ready to replace him.

 

FTR, most first round draft picks don't become "difference makers", especially those drafted late in the round.   Getting a good starting quality DE at the end of the first round who plays for five seasons is not a "miss", especially for a team that has to pay a veteran franchise QB.

You don’t have to be anything you don’t wanna be. If you are happy with “Groot” and his 5 sacks, that’s fine.

[eball]

24 minutes ago, FireChans said:

You don’t have to be anything you don’t wanna be. If you are happy with “Groot” and his 5 sacks, that’s fine.

 

I’m not here to shame fans but I fail to understand why this thread was started in the first place.  By almost any measure Groot has been a “successful” draft pick.  If you are only looking at sacks then I question how much you really understand D line play.

 

Carry on.

 

I really hate the offseason.

 

[FireChans]

19 minutes ago, eball said:

 

I’m not here to shame fans but I fail to understand why this thread was started in the first place.  By almost any measure Groot has been a “successful” draft pick.  If you are only looking at sacks then I question how much you really understand D line play.

 

Carry on.

 

I really hate the offseason.

 

I feel like I made a very strong case in the OP that Groot is clearly not a bust, but may not be the top tier edge rusher we need. Ultimately, being a good run defending DE is exactly what Shaq Lawson made his career on, and he walked in FA as well after his rookie deal. And the teams that paid (read: overpaid) regretted it because he wasn’t a difference-maker. 

 

Devin Singletary was also a “successful” draft pick, but there’s clearly something missing from our player acquisitions because these guys aren’t difference-makers. 
 

And all you do is fan-shame lmao.

Edited February 20 by FireChans