Is it time to grow concerned about Greg Rousseau?

[Matt_In_NH]

26 minutes ago, Brand J said:

It’s not a big deal, but I believe you’re getting the games mixed up. No Bill was credited with a sack in the Chiefs playoff game. But yeah, this doesn’t only fall on Rousseau, the entire front four has a habit of hibernating in the playoffs. I foolishly thought Daquan Jones would make a difference. They couldn’t stop the run or the pass.

you are correct, my bad

[Brand J]

25 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

He's in the bucket of players that are decent but never once make a game changing play in critical games, especially in the playoffs. That bucket unfortunately describes our entire core other than Allen. I'm pretty sick of everyone on the team other than Allen collectively sitting out important moments where we need someone to make a play.

 

Rousseau is an elite run defender, arguably the best edge run defender in the league. But value-wise that's almost equivalent to a good nose tackle. Personally I wouldn't give a player like that a 2nd contract. Maybe he'll finally put it all together this year. As a pass rusher he just hasn't given us enough juice.

Thought I’d see Greg among the league leaders in run stop win rate since it’s his most redeeming quality, but here’s your top 10. Not sure how far down the list he is.

[Sweats]

1 hour ago, Logic said:

Why would I be worried?

He's a good player. 

Very good against the run, provides a legitimate pass rush in spurts. Has positional versatility.

He's likely never going to be an elite, 15+ sack per year guy. But players that can consistently defend the run, provide some pass rush productivity, and have positional flexibility like he has usually carve out a nice, long career in the league. Think Calais Campbell. Similar size and profile to Rousseau. 16 years in the league, six Pro Bowls, and a 1st team All-Pro season. Campbell averaged "just" 6.5 sacks per season, which is about the pace Rousseau is on right now.

Rousseau is also only 23 years old, and it's definitely not out of the realm of possibility that he can continue to improve. Campbell didn't make the Pro Bowl until his 7th season, and didn't record double digit sacks in a season until he was 31.

Nothing to be worried about.

 

 

 

All good points, sir...however, do you pay the man at contract time or let him walk?

 

Are you going to pay him for what he has done, for what he is or what he might do? Each of these possibilities provide a different number at contract time and are we willing to pay for what he might become, when we have already seen what he is.....any of this making sense to you?....lol.

[BarleyNY]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

I liked Greg a lot coming out of college. Great physical traits with a lot of room to grow or low floor/high ceiling has been the Beane MO and I think it’s the right one. Josh, Edmunds, Rousseau, Elam have all fit that mold and when those players do hit, the benefit is that they are supposed to hit big.

 

But obviously we have been hit or miss in that first round. And perhaps even more bothersome, they have not hit “big” except for Josh. Edmunds is an NFL player but he wasn’t the defensive All-Pro they thought he was going to be. And Rousseau seems to be going that same road. 
 

I have this debate all the time on here about players “who can be 8-10 sack guys.” 8-10 sack guys are INCREDIBLY rare. It’s not very common for 6 sack guys to just become double digit sack guys because they play more or anything else. And Greg is that perfect example. He played 3 more games than last season and had 3 less sacks. He played more defensive snaps than he ever has in his career and a higher percentage of snaps. And his year was just… alright.
 

But anyway, besides that, we are running into the Edmunds problem where the fifth year option decision is coming. I would assume Greg is going to play on it, but based on his production, are we sure he is going to get an extension? Or is he going to be an Edmunds, where we let a solid player get overpaid by a bum franchise because the juice isn’t worth the squeeze?

 

I have posted about this since before we drafted him. He is not a DE that can bend the edge. Players that can do that are the high sack guys. He can set the edge against the run and play contain against QBs. He has excellent length to shed blocks for the above. He will also get some sacks every season. He must be paired with a “bend the edge” DE to be effective. A healthy Von Miller, for example, can flush QBs to his side where he can shed his block and tackle them. His skill set fits what McDermott wants in his LDE. It’s just that it isn’t a premium skill set and we took him at the end of the first round. That’s going to make re-signing him difficult unless he really wants to be here. The Bills will probably pick up his 5th year option but that’s likely it. 

Edited February 19 by BarleyNY

[Alphadawg7]

4 hours ago, FireChans said:

I liked Greg a lot coming out of college. Great physical traits with a lot of room to grow or low floor/high ceiling has been the Beane MO and I think it’s the right one. Josh, Edmunds, Rousseau, Elam have all fit that mold and when those players do hit, the benefit is that they are supposed to hit big.

 

But obviously we have been hit or miss in that first round. And perhaps even more bothersome, they have not hit “big” except for Josh. Edmunds is an NFL player but he wasn’t the defensive All-Pro they thought he was going to be. And Rousseau seems to be going that same road. 
 

I have this debate all the time on here about players “who can be 8-10 sack guys.” 8-10 sack guys are INCREDIBLY rare. It’s not very common for 6 sack guys to just become double digit sack guys because they play more or anything else. And Greg is that perfect example. He played 3 more games than last season and had 3 less sacks. He played more defensive snaps than he ever has in his career and a higher percentage of snaps. And his year was just… alright.
 

But anyway, besides that, we are running into the Edmunds problem where the fifth year option decision is coming. I would assume Greg is going to play on it, but based on his production, are we sure he is going to get an extension? Or is he going to be an Edmunds, where we let a solid player get overpaid by a bum franchise because the juice isn’t worth the squeeze?

 

Here is what I don't like about this conversation:  Bills were 4th in the NFL in sacks, only 6 behind the Ravens, in 2023 and that is with a lot of injuries.

1. DaQuan loss was big, and we still finished 4th in sacks. 
2. Tre White loss has a big effect on sacks because it affects our coverage which impacts how long the QB holds the ball, still finished 4th in sacks.
3. Milano is an all pro level LB we lost most the season, still finished 4th in sacks.
4. Von Miller was useless this season, still finished 4th in sacks.

Not to mention other players that missed time during the seaosn like Bernard.  I think it is more than reasonable to think the team might have achieved 6+ more sacks had they not lost 4 critical players for most the season (pretty much all the season for Von) that impact our ability to get to the QB.  So this is a team that could have led the league in sacks when healthy.

 

So, overall this team compiled a lot of sacks and that was spread out amongst a bunch of people rather than being top heavy like some teams are.  There are only so many sacks to go around and when you have guys all over the defense getting sacks, its not surprising one guys personal numbers fell off a bit.  So I am less concerned about Groot seeing his sack numbers dip a little bit after we sign a pass rush specialist like Floyd and some other guys break out like Oliver, Bernard and another solid sack total from AJE too.  

 

So to answer your question...no, I am not concerned.  Heard the same stuff about Oliver too and then he went out and put up 9.5 sacks this year on a team that had a lot of sacks.  

 

Edited February 19 by Alphadawg7

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

One thing I notice about Bills fans is we have zero respect for what the defense has done under McDermott and Frazier over the years. Probably due to how they’ve performed in the playoffs.

 

 I am a leader here as I don’t think the defensive line steps up in the playoffs. But we definitely have no respect for the defense in general. Even though they’re statistically one of the best defenses in the NFL since McDermott was hired. We think McDermott, Frazier, and pretty much the entire defense sucks.

 

This is another thread about how the defense isn’t good enough basically.

I guess sort’ve?

 

I’m a big believer in stars winning Superbowls. I don’t think the Bills have enough stars. Rousseau, much like Edmunds, was a guy with superstar potential who is not yet a superstar. 
 

You can make that a referendum on whoever you wish. 

1 hour ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

Really Front 8 with our rotation. And the back 7 didnt do so hot either. And that should tell you, once again, where the problem really lies.

I simply don’t think Chris Jones elevates in the postseason because of Spags. I think he is just a dawg. And we don’t have any.

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

He's in the bucket of players that are decent but never once make a game changing play in critical games, especially in the playoffs. That bucket unfortunately describes our entire core other than Allen. I'm pretty sick of everyone on the team other than Allen collectively sitting out important moments where we need someone to make a play.

 

Rousseau is an elite run defender, arguably the best edge run defender in the league. But value-wise that's almost equivalent to a good nose tackle. Personally I wouldn't give a player like that a 2nd contract. Maybe he'll finally put it all together this year. As a pass rusher he just hasn't given us enough juice.

this man hits the nail on the head.

 

why are the Bills consistently a good but not great team? Too many good but not great players, period. 

[DrDawkinstein]

2 minutes ago, FireChans said:

I simply don’t think Chris Jones elevates in the postseason because of Spags. I think he is just a dawg. And we don’t have any.

 

No, probably not future HoFer Chris Jones.

 

But George Karlaftis definitely benefits from Spags and his system and his coaching. Along with guys like Derrick Nnadi and the rest of the largely unknown Cheifs DL who manage to show up on the big stage.

 

And speaking of - Karlaftis is a great comparison to Rousseau considering they were both #30 picks. That dude is coming right along and making plays. Plays I'd say Rousseau is more than capable of, and that we see flashes of.

[FireChans]

53 minutes ago, DrDawkinstein said:

 

No, probably not future HoFer Chris Jones.

 

But George Karlaftis definitely benefits from Spags and his system and his coaching. Along with guys like Derrick Nnadi and the rest of the largely unknown Cheifs DL who manage to show up on the big stage.

 

And speaking of - Karlaftis is a great comparison to Rousseau considering they were both #30 picks. That dude is coming right along and making plays. Plays I'd say Rousseau is more than capable of, and that we see flashes of.

Better player. 10.5 sacks in a season? That’s like 2.5 Rousseau years

[FireChans]

1 hour ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Here is what I don't like about this conversation:  Bills were 4th in the NFL in sacks, only 6 behind the Ravens, in 2023 and that is with a lot of injuries.

1. DaQuan loss was big, and we still finished 4th in sacks. 
2. Tre White loss has a big effect on sacks because it affects our coverage which impacts how long the QB holds the ball, still finished 4th in sacks.
3. Milano is an all pro level LB we lost most the season, still finished 4th in sacks.
4. Von Miller was useless this season, still finished 4th in sacks.

Not to mention other players that missed time during the seaosn like Bernard.  I think it is more than reasonable to think the team might have achieved 6+ more sacks had they not lost 4 critical players for most the season (pretty much all the season for Von) that impact our ability to get to the QB.  So this is a team that could have led the league in sacks when healthy.

 

So, overall this team compiled a lot of sacks and that was spread out amongst a bunch of people rather than being top heavy like some teams are.  There are only so many sacks to go around and when you have guys all over the defense getting sacks, its not surprising one guys personal numbers fell off a bit.  So I am less concerned about Groot seeing his sack numbers dip a little bit after we sign a pass rush specialist like Floyd and some other guys break out like Oliver, Bernard and another solid sack total from AJE too.  

 

So to answer your question...no, I am not concerned.  Heard the same stuff about Oliver too and then he went out and put up 9.5 sacks this year on a team that had a lot of sacks.  

 

There are only so many sacks to go around which is why the top 4 team in sacks didn’t sack Mahomes once in the postseason? This is the argument?

 

As far as Ed is concerned, he was also a no show in the playoffs. 
 

 The Bills need to get players who can make high level, game-changing plays if they want to be anything better than 4th best. 
 

The only defender that made a spectacular play was Poyer and he’s 100

[GoBills808]

Paying market rate for above average players is a great way to remain an above average team 

[BBFL]

2 hours ago, Brand J said:

Thought I’d see Greg among the league leaders in run stop win rate since it’s his most redeeming quality, but here’s your top 10. Not sure how far down the list he is.

Maxx Crosby is a freaking dog. Absolutely one of my favorite defenders in the league. Relentless 24/7. Gives 100%, 100% of the time. 

[Alphadawg7]

8 minutes ago, FireChans said:

There are only so many sacks to go around which is why the top 4 team in sacks didn’t sack Mahomes once in the postseason? This is the argument?

 

As far as Ed is concerned, he was also a no show in the playoffs. 
 

 The Bills need to get players who can make high level, game-changing plays if they want to be anything better than 4th best. 
 

The only defender that made a spectacular play was Poyer and he’s 100

 

So you post a thread about a player's overall season, but now disregard any logic around discussing his and the team's season long pass rush based on one game.

 

Why do you do this all the time.  If this is really about the Chiefs game, then make a thread about why the Bills struggle to get pressure on the best team in the NFL who has a very good OL and a QB who can run and scramble with the best of them.  

 

Stop making threads/posts and then moving the goal posts every time someone makes a point or presents information that doesn't deliver the same negative view  you are going for.  

[Mr. WEO]

he's only 17. I'm not worried..

[HappyDays]

2 hours ago, Shaw66 said:

It's interesting that there is such a persistent theme that the defense lets the Bills down in playoff games, and yet there's also a persistent theme that the Bills have devoted too many resources to the defense and need to splurge this year on offense.  

 

Both are true. The defense has let the team down in the playoffs primarily because of poor scheme, play calling, and personnel decisions. Many people on here will disagree with this, but the evidence is right there on the film. So adding more defensive players early in the draft isn't going to solve the more fundamental problem.

 

The offense on the other hand, when it (rarely) falters in the playoffs it is primarily personnel issues.

 

Edited February 19 by HappyDays

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

So you post a thread about a player's overall season, but now disregard any logic around discussing his and the team's season long pass rush based on one game.

 

Why do you do this all the time.  If this is really about the Chiefs game, then make a thread about why the Bills struggle to get pressure on the best team in the NFL who has a very good OL and a QB who can run and scramble with the best of them.  

 

Stop making threads/posts and then moving the goal posts every time someone makes a point or presents information that doesn't deliver the same negative view  you are going for.  

Fair enough. 
 

Talking strictly in the regular season, it concerns me that Greg, a physically dominant specimen and first round talent in year 3, can’t separate himself from old vets like a Leonard Floyd or guys like AJE.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I simply don’t think Chris Jones elevates in the postseason because of Spags. I think he is just a dawg.

 

You say that, but on the most critical play of the most critical drive of our playoff game they got Chris Jones lined up 1v1 against Dawkins. Great coaches put great players in position to make great plays.

 

I guess I just don't inherently believe that Veach is THAT much better at scouting draft talent than Beane. Jones, Sneed, McDuffie, Karlaftis, Bolton. All of these picks turned into hits that elevated their play in the playoffs. None of them were seen as elite prospects.

[Buddy Hix]

Groot is a good run defender and below average pass rusher…solid overall but not a guy I would want extended. 
 

Just sucks that Beane hasn’t hit on a 1st rounder since Josh.

[Alphadawg7]

4 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Fair enough. 
 

Talking strictly in the regular season, it concerns me that Greg, a physically dominant specimen and first round talent in year 3, can’t separate himself from old vets like a Leonard Floyd or guys like AJE.

 

Im not saying there is nothing to be concerned about, I am just saying I am not overly concerned...yet.  Like I said, with Von being a waste and losing Jones, Tre, and Milano to still finish 4th in sacks was pretty darn good for the Bills.  And with the way McD aggressively rotates, sometimes someone's numbers will dip.  

 

Jerry Hughes averaged 9 sacks per season for 4 years before Frazier got here and his first year in Houston after leaving Buffalo (where he got 9 after everyone said he was washed).  Under Frazier, which was also saw a lot of rotation up front, Hughes only averaged 4.5 sacks over 5 seasons never getting more than 7.   And again, put up 9 his first year in Houston at the end of his career.

 

So, makes me wonder, how much of it is Greg and how much of it is the system he is in that rotates a lot of guys around and sacks tend to be spread around?  And I can't help but wonder what his season looks like if Jones, Tre, and Milano don't miss much of the season or if Von was actually useful.  

 

FWIW:  Greg had 3 sacks in his first 4 games.  We lost Tre week 3 and Jones and Milano week 4.  He only had 2 sacks rest of season.  4 games is a small sample size, but 3 in 4 games is a pace for 13 on the season.  

[Shaw66]

2 hours ago, Alphadawg7 said:

 

Here is what I don't like about this conversation:  Bills were 4th in the NFL in sacks, only 6 behind the Ravens, in 2023 and that is with a lot of injuries.

1. DaQuan loss was big, and we still finished 4th in sacks. 
2. Tre White loss has a big effect on sacks because it affects our coverage which impacts how long the QB holds the ball, still finished 4th in sacks.
3. Milano is an all pro level LB we lost most the season, still finished 4th in sacks.
4. Von Miller was useless this season, still finished 4th in sacks.

Not to mention other players that missed time during the seaosn like Bernard.  I think it is more than reasonable to think the team might have achieved 6+ more sacks had they not lost 4 critical players for most the season (pretty much all the season for Von) that impact our ability to get to the QB.  So this is a team that could have led the league in sacks when healthy.

 

So, overall this team compiled a lot of sacks and that was spread out amongst a bunch of people rather than being top heavy like some teams are.  There are only so many sacks to go around and when you have guys all over the defense getting sacks, its not surprising one guys personal numbers fell off a bit.  So I am less concerned about Groot seeing his sack numbers dip a little bit after we sign a pass rush specialist like Floyd and some other guys break out like Oliver, Bernard and another solid sack total from AJE too.  

 

So to answer your question...no, I am not concerned.  Heard the same stuff about Oliver too and then he went out and put up 9.5 sacks this year on a team that had a lot of sacks.  

 

This is really good.  Thanks.   But it highlights my point, and I'd be interested in you comments.

 

I think it's very clear that McDermott's approach to defense is to be very good across the board, so that over the course of the season the defense is performing as it should - low yards per game and low points per game.  He wants to get pressure with four men rushing.  He believes the best way to get defensive production on the line by rotating 8 or 9, thereby keeping them fresh and changing the look of the defense.  

 

Rousseau, and Oliver as you point out, are not stars at their positions, but they do more or less everything at a high level.   They fit perfectly into what McDermott wants.   He doesn't want a guy who's so good that he demands 85% of the snaps, but he loves having guys who demand 60% and you can afford to have off the field once in a while.  

 

However, that system means there's no room for a Chris Jones, a Bosa, a Watt, or pick a few others (or a Von Miller in his prime).  What that means is that the defensive line lineup doesn't include a big-play playmaker, the guy who them game is on the line sometimes will just make a play to win the game.  That may not matter much in the regular season, because if the defense is putting up the numbers McDermott wants, over the course of the season the Bills will win enough that one game won by a super player making a super play just doesn't matter as much as the consistency this defense produces.  But in the playoffs, you want one of those guys, because the averages don't matter so much when it's winner-take-all.  

 

I'm not sure I know what to do about that.  Will McDermott change his defense a bit to make room for a real stud defensive lineman?  Actually, the Bills don't have the draft capital or the cap room to get one of those players, so it doesn't really matter.  But philosophically, it's a point that bothers me a lot, because it keeps appearing across the lineup.  I know the Niners are unusual, but their offense has three stud skill players, Pro Bowl level.   The Bills have one, if you're willing to put Diggs there.   The Chiefs come at you with Jones and with Kelce, two stud players, one on each side.  

 

Beane and McDermott seem to think this team doesn't need studs.  What do you think?

[FireChans]

Just now, HappyDays said:

 

You say that, but on the most critical play of the most critical drive of our playoff game they got Chris Jones lined up 1v1 against Dawkins. Great coaches put great players in position to make great plays.

 

I guess I just don't inherently believe that Veach is THAT much better at scouting draft talent than Beane. Jones, Sneed, McDuffie, Karlaftis, Bolton. All of these picks turned into hits that elevated their play in the playoffs. None of them were seen as elite prospects.

Dawkins is our best OL man. You think that’s the most favorable matchup for Chris Jones?

 

I mean, I could see you saying that if he toasted Spencer Brown. The bottom line is our highly paid player lost his rep to their highly paid player. Exactly what happened with Eddy all game. 
 

I don’t think Veach is a magician either, I think the Chiefs have gotten very lucky and drafted some great players. Just like the Seahawks did when they drafted Russel Wilson and Kam Chancellor and Richard Sherman etc etc.
 

Trey Smith would be a great guard anywhere. Humphrey would be a great C anywhere. 
 

I firmly believe there’s an HUGE element of luck to drafting personnel.  Look at the Seahawks, I don’t think they have gotten as many great players in the last 10 years as they did from 2010-2012.

 

The bottom line is Dawkins is paid lots of money to make plays. He didn’t. Ed is paid lots of money to make plays. He didn’t. Rousseau doesn’t make a lot of plays and is about to make lots of money, im not sure if he should. For whatever reason, the Chiefs find dudes who get the job done. And that’s why they have All-pros everywhere and dudes who are gonna get PAID, like Sneed.