Is it time to grow concerned about Greg Rousseau?

[Success]

I mean, plenty of good linemen "disappear" against Mahomes.  He's a tough dude to sack.

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

6 minutes ago, Brand J said:

We’ll see what Beane does, but if all things stay relatively the same, don’t be surprised if Rousseau is allowed to walk versus Beane signing him for $20M/yr. I just don’t think it’ll happen. 

It also depends on who else they have. Right now there’s no one but Rousseau.

[julian]

He’s developed into a very good DE, as a late 1st round pick this was probably his ceiling but I’ll leave the door open for some career years where he gets close to double digit sacks.

[Brand J]

2 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

It also depends on who else they have. Right now there’s no one but Rousseau.

That still doesn’t mean “sign the guy for more than he’s worth because he’s all we’ve got at the position.” If that’s the case, you let those high money/low production guys go and take a chance on the backup(s).

[Matt_In_NH]

11 minutes ago, Brand J said:

I remember one play from the Chiefs game where Rousseau was in on Mahomes. One. And he didn’t get the sack. Because of the miss Klein inexplicably left his assignment and we gave up a huge play. Those sacks and being able to close the deal definitely matter. 

He was credited with half a sack in that game and had a great sack vs the Steelers but I think we are aligned in general.

[Logic]

Why would I be worried?

He's a good player. 

Very good against the run, provides a legitimate pass rush in spurts. Has positional versatility.

He's likely never going to be an elite, 15+ sack per year guy. But players that can consistently defend the run, provide some pass rush productivity, and have positional flexibility like he has usually carve out a nice, long career in the league. Think Calais Campbell. Similar size and profile to Rousseau. 16 years in the league, six Pro Bowls, and a 1st team All-Pro season. Campbell averaged "just" 6.5 sacks per season, which is about the pace Rousseau is on right now.

Rousseau is also only 23 years old, and it's definitely not out of the realm of possibility that he can continue to improve. Campbell didn't make the Pro Bowl until his 7th season, and didn't record double digit sacks in a season until he was 31.

Nothing to be worried about.

[Brand J]

5 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

He was credited with half a sack in that game and had a great sack vs the Steelers but I think we are aligned in general.

The playoff game was the play I was referencing, not the regular season. We didn’t touch Mahomes in the playoffs. Well, Rousseau touched him on the one pass rush but that’s about it. Mahomes still got a huge play out of it. We have to solve why the DL disappears every year in the playoffs, but that’s another discussion for another time.

[Shaw66]

3 hours ago, FireChans said:

I liked Greg a lot coming out of college. Great physical traits with a lot of room to grow or low floor/high ceiling has been the Beane MO and I think it’s the right one. Josh, Edmunds, Rousseau, Elam have all fit that mold and when those players do hit, the benefit is that they are supposed to hit big.

 

But obviously we have been hit or miss in that first round. And perhaps even more bothersome, they have not hit “big” except for Josh. Edmunds is an NFL player but he wasn’t the defensive All-Pro they thought he was going to be. And Rousseau seems to be going that same road. 
 

I have this debate all the time on here about players “who can be 8-10 sack guys.” 8-10 sack guys are INCREDIBLY rare. It’s not very common for 6 sack guys to just become double digit sack guys because they play more or anything else. And Greg is that perfect example. He played 3 more games than last season and had 3 less sacks. He played more defensive snaps than he ever has in his career and a higher percentage of snaps. And his year was just… alright.
 

But anyway, besides that, we are running into the Edmunds problem where the fifth year option decision is coming. I would assume Greg is going to play on it, but based on his production, are we sure he is going to get an extension? Or is he going to be an Edmunds, where we let a solid player get overpaid by a bum franchise because the juice isn’t worth the squeeze?

I've been worrying about Rousseau for a couple of year.   

 

Let me say first that I think you sort of suggest that Rousseau is a disappointment.  If he's a disappointment, it's only in the sense that he isn't the super star that some, mostly unreasonably, imagined he would be.  The only time that it's reasonable to expect that a team got a super star is when the team has a top-ten pick.  If teams had thought Rousseau was going to be a super star, some team would have taken him before the Bills did.  

 

Rousseau has in fact produced at a level that is reasonable to expect for a guy who was drafted late in the first round:  Starter almost from the beginning, makes plays, is coachable, is a solid contributor.   

 

But Rousseau was a pick sort of like Edmunds - the Bills bet a bit on his high ceiling, and like Edmunds, he hasn't risen to that ceiling.   Instead, and more so than Edmunds, he became a solid starter with no weaknesses.  The Bears took the second bet on Edmunds' ceiling, because it is so high, but I don't think teams would make the comparable big bet on Greg, because it's pretty clear he isn't going to be a dominant edge rusher like Watt or a Bosa or something.  

 

What bothers me about Rousseau is that the Bills need a few more standout players.  Allen is one, and Milano probably is the other.  They need one or two more.  They hoped Miller would be one, but that hasn't happened yet.  But McDermott loves his all-purpose players.   He want great athletes who can do everything their position demands, so he likes Rousseau, whose really pretty good at pass rushing, run stopping,  pursuing, pass coverage.  The problem is that he isn't dominant as any of those things; he's just very good.  

 

I think the Bills should keep Rousseau, but if unloading him was part of a plan to get a dominant defensive player, almost at any position, I'd be in favor. 

[nedboy7]

Marino was talking about how Rousseau is elite against the run.  He is good value for the skill level.  I think they pick up his option. 

[Shaw66]

17 minutes ago, Success said:

I mean, plenty of good linemen "disappear" against Mahomes.  He's a tough dude to sack.

 

I don't know if this is posted anywhere, but a friend sent this to me this morning.  It's one reason good linemen "disappear" against Mahomes.  

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

One thing I notice about Bills fans is we have zero respect for what the defense has done under McDermott and Frazier over the years. Probably due to how they’ve performed in the playoffs.

 

 I am a leader here as I don’t think the defensive line steps up in the playoffs. But we definitely have no respect for the defense in general. Even though they’re statistically one of the best defenses in the NFL since McDermott was hired. We think McDermott, Frazier, and pretty much the entire defense sucks.

 

This is another thread about how the defense isn’t good enough basically.

Edited February 19 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Matt_In_NH]

17 minutes ago, Brand J said:

The playoff game was the play I was referencing, not the regular season. We didn’t touch Mahomes in the playoffs. Well, Rousseau touched him on the one pass rush but that’s about it. Mahomes still got a huge play out of it. We have to solve why the DL disappears every year in the playoffs, but that’s another discussion for another time.

He was credited with half a sack with Oliver in the playoff game vs Chiefs is all I am saying.  If i remember correctly it was a coverage sack.  But your overall point I agree there was no pressure on Mahomes.

[SCBills]

9 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

One thing I notice about Bills fans is we have zero respect for what the defense has done under McDermott and Frazier over the years. Probably due to how they’ve performed in the playoffs.

 

 I am a leader here as I don’t think the defensive line steps up in the playoffs. But we definitely have no respect for the defense in general. Even though they’re statistically one of the best defenses in the NFL since McDermott was hired. We think McDermott, Frazier, and pretty much the entire defense sucks.

 

This is another thread about how the defense isn’t good enough basically.

 

Isn't there a famous Brandon Beane quote about how you find out a lot about your team in that final game?

 

Our final game always consists of the defense letting us down.  

 

It's the main reason we haven't won a Super Bowl yet with Josh Allen, so I'm not sure what about them requires us to shower that unit with praise.  

 

A big reason for the lack of postseason success is the fact we typically have a Defense built on depth and lots of good players. 

 

We lack the greatness required for big moments.. and Rousseau seems to be following that trajectory.  

 

 

Edited February 19 by SCBills

[Buffalo_Stampede]

1 minute ago, SCBills said:

 

Isn't there a famous Brandon Beane quote about how you find out a lot about your team in that final game?

 

Our final game always consists of the defense letting us down.  

 

It's the main reason we haven't won a Super Bowl yet with Josh Allen, so I'm not sure what about them requires us to shower that unit with praise.  

Diggs is then the most overrated and overpaid player on the team.

[SCBills]

5 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Diggs is then the most overrated and overpaid player on the team.

 

Diggs is very much overrated and overpaid.  Yes.

 

 

[DrDawkinstein]

48 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Everything we talk about is a fruitless exercise, unless @DrDawkinstein is secretly Brandon Beane. Not only do you not understand the thread, I’m afraid you don’t understand message boards in general.

 

lol, I almost replied to Don earlier to note "Spoiler Alert: Whether it's in season or off season, ALL of our content is meaningless here"

[Shaw66]

21 minutes ago, SCBills said:

 

Isn't there a famous Brandon Beane quote about how you find out a lot about your team in that final game?

 

 

 

He may have said multiple times, but I recall he said it when they acquired Miller.  

 

It's interesting that there is such a persistent theme that the defense lets the Bills down in playoff games, and yet there's also a persistent theme that the Bills have devoted too many resources to the defense and need to splurge this year on offense.  

[Brand J]

25 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

He was credited with half a sack with Oliver in the playoff game vs Chiefs is all I am saying.  If i remember correctly it was a coverage sack.  But your overall point I agree there was no pressure on Mahomes.

It’s not a big deal, but I believe you’re getting the games mixed up. No Bill was credited with a sack in the Chiefs playoff game. But yeah, this doesn’t only fall on Rousseau, the entire front four has a habit of hibernating in the playoffs. I foolishly thought Daquan Jones would make a difference. They couldn’t stop the run or the pass.

[HappyDays]

He's in the bucket of players that are decent but never once make a game changing play in critical games, especially in the playoffs. That bucket unfortunately describes our entire core other than Allen. I'm pretty sick of everyone on the team other than Allen collectively sitting out important moments where we need someone to make a play.

 

Rousseau is an elite run defender, arguably the best edge run defender in the league. But value-wise that's almost equivalent to a good nose tackle. Personally I wouldn't give a player like that a 2nd contract. Maybe he'll finally put it all together this year. As a pass rusher he just hasn't given us enough juice.

[DrDawkinstein]

17 minutes ago, Brand J said:

It’s not a big deal, but I believe you’re getting the games mixed up. No Bill was credited with a sack in the Chiefs playoff game. But yeah, this doesn’t only fall on Rousseau, the entire front four has a habit of hibernating in the playoffs. I foolishly thought Daquan Jones would make a difference. They couldn’t stop the run or the pass.

 

Really Front 8 with our rotation. And the back 7 didnt do so hot either. And that should tell you, once again, where the problem really lies.