Is it time to grow concerned about Greg Rousseau?

[Mat68]

Looking back Oliver was though of the same way.  This year he took a big step.  I could see Rousseau  having a similar trajectory.  His advance stats are solid and he is the best all all around edge player on the roster by a margin imo. 

[Returntoglory]

It's time to grow concerned about our entire Defense!

[SoTier]

1 hour ago, Mat68 said:

Looking back Oliver was though of the same way.  This year he took a big step.  I could see Rousseau  having a similar trajectory.  His advance stats are solid and he is the best all all around edge player on the roster by a margin imo. 

 

Generally, DTs like Oliver take longer to come into their own than DEs simply because the learning curve for interior linemen tends to be longer than for the edge rushers; there's more to learn in the pro game than in college.   That doesn't mean that Rousseau can't improve his sack numbers, but it seems that he's not real likely to do so.  However, that doesn't bother me much because he's a good DE against both the pass and the run.  

Edited February 23 by SoTier

[BigDingus]

1st round picks are stll 1st round picks though... They're all expected to be good players. 

 

When you see 2nd round, 3rd round, 4th round, etc. picks breaking out & becoming stars every year, you'd like to think your team will find those guys too. 

 

But if not, you'd at least hope they hit on their 1st rounders.

 

It's not enough to just avoid busts, it's also avoiding situations like Sammy Watkins... trading away extra picks & moving up for a guy who ends up being worse than several other WRs that came later. You also don't want to settle for "serviceable" or "solid." You want your 1st rounders to make a big impact. 

 

I think Greg has been pretty good. But the organization went Into that draft hellbent on fixing the pass rush to stop the Chiefs, then failed so hard they immediately spent 100+ million on a 33 year old DE the next off-season. That's a lot of money & resources spent to get a "solid" or "pretty good" pass rush.

[34-78-83]

Groot just desperately needs to stay healthy for a full season. When he is, he's a very dynamic starting DE. I agree with other posters comparisons to Oliver. Oliver has actually played quite well for a number of years, but kept getting banged up during seasons (for different reasons than Rousseau mind you)

[GunnerBill]

Just heard a really good stat on Joe B's live roster primer on the Athletic.

 

As a rookie Rousseau playes 100% left end.

In 2022 it was 83%

In 2023 it was only 45%

 

He played a LOT more right end which is not his strongest position to accomodate Floyd and Von who both also wanna play left end. 

 

Not saying it completely explains why his production isn't higher but definitely worth considering. 

[FireChans]

1 minute ago, GunnerBill said:

Just heard a really good stat on Joe B's live roster primer on the Athletic.

 

As a rookie Rousseau playes 100% left end.

In 2022 it was 83%

In 2023 it was only 45%

 

He played a LOT more right end which is not his strongest position to accomodate Floyd and Von who both also wanna play left end. 

 

Not saying it completely explains why his production isn't higher but definitely worth considering. 

Hopefully Von plays more left bench next year, or isn’t on the team at all, and we don’t have to worry about this. 

[GunnerBill]

Just now, FireChans said:

Hopefully Von plays more left bench next year, or isn’t on the team at all, and we don’t have to worry about this. 

 

I just asked Joe what his level of confidence is in Von having any impact at all in 2024 - his answer? None whatsoever.

[FireChans]

8 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just asked Joe what his level of confidence is in Von having any impact at all in 2024 - his answer? None whatsoever.

 

[Mat68]

6 hours ago, BigDingus said:

1st round picks are stll 1st round picks though... They're all expected to be good players. 

 

When you see 2nd round, 3rd round, 4th round, etc. picks breaking out & becoming stars every year, you'd like to think your team will find those guys too. 

 

But if not, you'd at least hope they hit on their 1st rounders.

 

It's not enough to just avoid busts, it's also avoiding situations like Sammy Watkins... trading away extra picks & moving up for a guy who ends up being worse than several other WRs that came later. You also don't want to settle for "serviceable" or "solid." You want your 1st rounders to make a big impact. 

 

I think Greg has been pretty good. But the organization went Into that draft hellbent on fixing the pass rush to stop the Chiefs, then failed so hard they immediately spent 100+ million on a 33 year old DE the next off-season. That's a lot of money & resources spent to get a "solid" or "pretty good" pass rush.

Rousseasu barring injury is a 10 year NFL starter at DE.  Thats a hit.  I think if he got the same snaps other top 15 DEs get his numbers would be closer to what you would hope for. 

[Billl]

Fun fact:  On June 1st, GR will have more career sacks than any player in the NFL under 25 years old other than Aiden Hutchinson.

Edited May 14 by Billl

[bearstobills]

On 2/22/2024 at 3:05 AM, FilthyBeast said:

Just thinking more about Groot and this dline as a whole, the fact that this GM and defensive minded head coach has never drafted a player that has managed double digits sacks in a season has me dumbfounded. Yes Floyd did it this year as a FA (despite next to nothing the 2nd half of the season and playoffs) and Miller was certainly on pace for it before his injury in 2022, but all these other draft picks really haven't come close except for Oliver this year.

 

And that's what scares me most about the draft this year because I'm willing to bet they go dline once again in the first round despite all the talk about WR and other areas of need.

Guys that average double digit sacks usually go in the top 10 of the draft.  The Bills usually don't draft until around 28.  Groot was damn good pick at that point.  

[Beast]

6 hours ago, Billl said:

Fun fact:  On June 1st, GR will have more career sacks than any player in the NFL under 25 years old other than Aiden Hutchinson.

That’s because the Bills drafted him when he was 14 years old.

[FireChans]

5 hours ago, bearstobills said:

Guys that average double digit sacks usually go in the top 10 of the draft.  The Bills usually don't draft until around 28.  Groot was damn good pick at that point.  

The guys that had double digit sacks last year.

 

Pick 30

Pick 7

Pick 103

pick 5

Pick 88

Pick 106

Pick 12

pick 1

Pick 71

Pick 26

Pick 90

Pick 2

UDFA

 

I’m getting tired, I’ll stop there.

[BillMafia716ix]

I want to see what he does with more snaps. The Bills rotate lineman a lot so I think it hurts his potential production. 

[BarleyNY]

9 hours ago, Billl said:

Fun fact:  On June 1st, GR will have more career sacks than any player in the NFL under 25 years old other than Aiden Hutchinson.

That’s not true. It’s a ridiculous argument and, again, it’s not even true. The first player I looked up was Miciah Parsons who doesn’t turn 25 until later this month. He’s got 40.5 sacks to Rousseau’s 17.0. Asserting that GR is an asset as a pass rusher is a sure indicator of one of two things:

- someone being disingenuous for the sake of being argumentative or

- someone demonstrating a fundamental lack of football knowledge. 

Edited May 14 by BarleyNY

[FireChans]

47 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

That’s not true. It’s a ridiculous argument and, again, it’s not even true. The first player I looked up was Miciah Parsons who doesn’t turn 25 until later this month. He’s got 40.5 sacks to Rousseau’s 17.0. Asserting that GR is an asset as a pass rusher is a sure indicator of one of two things:

- someone being disingenuous for the sake of being argumentative or

- someone demonstrating a fundamental lack of football knowledge. 

He said “on June 1st,” FWIW. technically right but with a gigantic qualifier.

 

Imo, the more ridiculous the qualifier you need to use, the more it’s indicative of the player sucking.

 

Case in point:

 

Tyrod Taylor is a great QB. Look at his numbers throwing to the left hash on second down!

 

Josh Allen is a great QB. Look at his numbers.

[Don Otreply]

The “concern” should be with how our D personnel are deployed / schemed to be successful, our D has never ever had a plan B…, jmo of course, 

[Bleeding Bills Blue]

24 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

That’s not true. It’s a ridiculous argument and, again, it’s not even true. The first player I looked up was Miciah Parsons who doesn’t turn 25 until later this month. He’s got 40.5 sacks to Rousseau’s 17.0. Asserting that GR is an asset as a pass rusher is a sure indicator of one of two things:

- someone being disingenuous for the sake of being argumentative or

- someone demonstrating a fundamental lack of football knowledge. 

 

Fun fact: Buffalo has more sacks than Dallas in 2 of the last 3 years - with a lower blitz percentage in all 3 seasons.

 

GR has 17 career sacks, 30 TFLs and on 1579 snaps.  

Parsons has 40.5 sacks, and 51 TFLs on 2687 snaps.

 

On the same number of snaps that would put rousseau as a projected 29 sacks.  There's some nuance to that data, and split data won't say how many snaps are run v pass, down and distance, etc. 

 

[FireChans]

3 minutes ago, Bleeding Bills Blue said:

 

Fun fact: Buffalo has more sacks than Dallas in 2 of the last 3 years - with a lower blitz percentage in all 3 seasons.

 

GR has 17 career sacks, 30 TFLs and on 1579 snaps.  

Parsons has 40.5 sacks, and 51 TFLs on 2687 snaps.

 

On the same number of snaps that would put rousseau as a projected 29 sacks.  There's some nuance to that data, and split data won't say how many snaps are run v pass, down and distance, etc. 

 

Rousseau played more snaps this year than he did last year and had less sacks.
 

Projections don’t work