How clutch was Josh in 2023? No other QB even came close

[Don Otreply]

12 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

 

So the way you are asking these questions and discussing them is way different than calling him Mcdipshit and claiming the entire team is trash except for JA.  That is what my comment was about.  You have good points and I agree at some level.  McD has a 5-6 post season record.  Every post season ends with a loss except for one team.  That team recently has been KC where the D has not been good enough.  For the Cincy game I think its fair to say the O did not show up.  I just dont get coming here with one dimensional stupid takes and bashing everything they have achieved since they have fallen short of the ultimate goal.  If someone comes here daily to state the same thing which is the team and McD and Bean suck, they are not adding anything to the conversation. 

Well, that is an understandable take, those folk are irritating at best.  The O &  D don’t need to be torn down they need an honest look at what they are doing that isn’t working and make appropriate changes in scheme and in game situational awareness to address the short comings, we have a well above average team that just needs some, imo, minor adjustments. 

[90sBills]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Allen doesn't call the plays or set the progressions. You know that, right?

Coaches don’t throw passes. You do know this right? Just wanna check. 

[Mikie2times]

1 hour ago, HappyDays said:

 

Allen doesn't call the plays or set the progressions. You know that, right?

I guess I don't feel overwhelmed with confidence late in a playoff game that Allen will score that final TD. Not like I feel with Mahomes or Brady. Regular season sure. He seems to deliver more consistently in that spot. He also did in 13 seconds but I pause because that was one of the worst defenses in the league. So can he? Sure. But I don't think it's near a level of those two guys I mentioned. I also attribute that mostly to his ability to play within structure with consistency. 

 

Look at the below clip at 3:08.  Is Mahomes or Brady considering running in that spot?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6UzerC7LC8&t=245s

 

You could say well maybe he didn't have anybody open. Maybe...But the reality is he isn't a top 10 QB throwing the ball on 3rd down in his career (not an opinion).

 

His career rating on 3rd down is 84.9, Mahomes has a rating of 110.3 on 3rd down, Burrow a rating of 101. 

 

Now include his legs and he is a top 5 QB on 3rd down with EPA. But that's the issue with Josh. Going off script does not deliver the consistency of delivering on script. It produces some incredible moments but isn't as repeatable. You create repeatable actions by throwing on schedule. That is the area of his game I want him to get better in as he ages. 

[Captain Hindsight]

Imagine if he wasn't so commercialized

[HappyDays]

2 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Coaches don’t throw passes. You do know this right? Just wanna check. 

 

Okay, so your answer to my question is "no, I don't know that." So allow me to inform you - the QB does not call plays or set progression.

[GoBills808]

1 hour ago, pennstate10 said:

My point still stands. 
 

Any time someone comes up with a new metric, ie “Win probability added per dropback”, you should ask yourself, how is this calculated?  And more importantly, has this been shown to be predictive on an independent data set?

 

Until I see evidence that this measurement is truly predictive, I’ll consider it useless. 
 

 

It's calculated by taking the win probability of a particular down wrt historical averages (similar to EPA) vs the difference positive or negative of the play's result. It's not predictive nor is it meant to be as there are  better metrics for that.

[Shaw66]

8 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I guess I don't feel overwhelmed with confidence late in a playoff game that Allen will score that final TD. Not like I feel with Mahomes or Brady. Regular season sure. He seems to deliver more consistently in that spot. He also did in 13 seconds but I pause because that was one of the worst defenses in the league. So can he? Sure. But I don't think it's near a level of those two guys I mentioned. I also attribute that mostly to his ability to play within structure with consistency. 

 

Look at the below clip at 3:08.  Is Mahomes or Brady considering running in that spot?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6UzerC7LC8&t=245s

 

You could say well maybe he didn't have anybody open. Maybe...But the reality is he isn't a top 10 QB throwing the ball on 3rd down in his career (not an opinion).

 

His career rating on 3rd down is 84.9, Mahomes has a rating of 110.3 on 3rd down, Burrow a rating of 101. 

 

Now include his legs and he is a top 5 QB on 3rd down with EPA. But that's the issue with Josh. Going off script does not deliver the consistency of delivering on script. It produces some incredible moments but isn't as repeatable. You create repeatable actions by throwing on schedule. That is the area of his game I want him to get better in as he ages. 

There are a lot of interesting things in this post.   Not sure I agree completely, but it's interesting.   

 

As for the video, Brady is definitely not considering running there, Mahomes will be thinking about it.  But Josh is a better runner, and I don't know that I'd fault him for making that decision.  

 

I like your discussion repeatable plays, and you do get it by throwing on schedule.   I believe you're correct about this point - Mahomes is excellent throwing on schedule AND creating off it when he has to.  Allen improved a lot this season, and I think he's close.  The other thing about this issue, however, is the quality of the offensive scheme and the play calling.  Allen was pretty good at staying on schedule this season, but the scheduled throws often weren't there.  That happens to Mahomes much less frequently, and that's a function of Reid's scheme and playcalling.  

 

It's also amusing - valid but amusing - to say that he doesn't do it like Brady or Mahomes.  That's sort of like saying Lebron is good, but he doesn't do it like Bird or Magic.   Allen is remarkably good right now, and I'm confident that he's now entering a period of several seasons where he is going to be every bit as dominant as Mahomes.   He's gotten better every year, his judgment is better, his leadership is better, he's more confident, and on top of all that, sometimes he simply wills his way to a big play.  Amazing player. 

[GoBills808]

22 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

I guess I don't feel overwhelmed with confidence late in a playoff game that Allen will score that final TD. Not like I feel with Mahomes or Brady. Regular season sure. He seems to deliver more consistently in that spot. He also did in 13 seconds but I pause because that was one of the worst defenses in the league. So can he? Sure. But I don't think it's near a level of those two guys I mentioned. I also attribute that mostly to his ability to play within structure with consistency. 

 

Look at the below clip at 3:08.  Is Mahomes or Brady considering running in that spot?

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=I6UzerC7LC8&t=245s

 

You could say well maybe he didn't have anybody open. Maybe...But the reality is he isn't a top 10 QB throwing the ball on 3rd down in his career (not an opinion).

 

His career rating on 3rd down is 84.9, Mahomes has a rating of 110.3 on 3rd down, Burrow a rating of 101. 

 

Now include his legs and he is a top 5 QB on 3rd down with EPA. But that's the issue with Josh. Going off script does not deliver the consistency of delivering on script. It produces some incredible moments but isn't as repeatable. You create repeatable actions by throwing on schedule. That is the area of his game I want him to get better in as he ages. 

passer rating is a poor measurement for how good a QB is on third down imo, too heavily weighted toward completions that don't necessarily pick up a first down

 

success% is what you are looking for

[HappyDays]

26 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

Going off script does not deliver the consistency of delivering on script. It produces some incredible moments but isn't as repeatable.

 

The Bills had the best 3rd down conversion percentage in the league each of the past two seasons, and were #2 in 2021. So it is in fact repeatable and consistent, moreso than any other team in the league.

 

See you spent all that time pulling stats to compose that post but you ignored the only stat that actually matters in games.

[Mikie2times]

6 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

passer rating is a poor measurement for how good a QB is on third down imo, too heavily weighted toward completions that don't necessarily pick up a first down

 

success% is what you are looking for

 

Career success rate passing, not running

 

Mahomes 48.8%

Burrow 45.0%

Allen  43.2%

 

 

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

The Bills had the best 3rd down conversion percentage in the league each of the past two seasons, and were #2 in 2021. So it is in fact repeatable and consistent, moreso than any other team in the league.

 

See you spent all that time pulling stats to compose that post but you ignored the only stat that actually matters in games.

We do a lot of things really well in the regular season

[Chaos]

The tough part of this is that, Allen is at such a high level, if he dropped down to being a "top 10" qb, the team would likely fall off a cliff. 

[GoBills808]

8 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

 

Career success rate passing, not running

 

Mahomes 48.8%

Burrow 45.0%

Allen  43.2%

 

 

We do a lot of things really well in the regular season

No

 

Don't know where you got those numbers but they're not close

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm

 

 

[Mikie2times]

1 minute ago, GoBills808 said:

No

 

Don't know where you got those numbers but they're not close

 

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/A/AlleJo02.htm

 

 

It's the % of throws that resulted in a 1st down on 3rd down. 

[BillsFan130]

Love this but...

 

How the hell is Tua considered one of the most "clutch QBs"? lol

7 hours ago, Warriorspikes51 said:

 

Last time I checked, football is a team sport. 

It amazes me some people treat it like it's boxing.

 

"Josh has to beat Mahomes"

 

"burrow already beat Mahomes".

 

It's such a lazy argument and makes me wonder if people even watch the games 

[Chaos]

41 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

It's calculated by taking the win probability of a particular down wrt historical averages (similar to EPA) vs the difference positive or negative of the play's result. It's not predictive nor is it meant to be as there are  better metrics for that.

The general rule is that fans on this forum consider anything they don't understand "useless".  Which from the sole perspective of those that don't understand things is perfectly true. 

[BillsFan130]

4 hours ago, 90sBills said:

Gotta do it in the playoffs. If he executed that final drive in the KC game correctly (clutch) we might’ve been spared of 6 mos KC slobbering by the media. 

You mean the 80 yard TD Diggs dropped on the final drive?

[GoBills808]

12 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

It's the % of throws that resulted in a 1st down on 3rd down. 

sorry I think I misunderstood what you were referencing then

 

where did you get this data?

[HappyDays]

33 minutes ago, Mikie2times said:

We do a lot of things really well in the regular season

 

Lol I was responding to your post where you said his "career" (AKA regular season) 3rd down numbers weren't good enough. Now I clearly demonstrate that he is in fact elite on 3rd downs and your response is just "regular season doesn't matter"?

 

This is why the conversations around Allen and Mahomes on here are often so difficult. People just say whatever and when confronted with evidence that proves otherwise they have to cop out by jumping to some variation of "winners win, losers lose."

 

Sort of off topic, but everybody should start these conversations with the understanding that QBs individually are responsible for maybe 35% of their own team's success (and this is probably an over estimate if anything). That's a huge swing for just one player obviously, but the totality of what the other ~65% provides stil ultimately matters more.

 

Edited February 16 by HappyDays

[pennstate10]

1 hour ago, GoBills808 said:

It's calculated by taking the win probability of a particular down wrt historical averages (similar to EPA) vs the difference positive or negative of the play's result. It's not predictive nor is it meant to be as there are  better metrics for that.

Why would you use any measurement if it doesn’t help you analyze a decision?  Thats pretty clearly what op was saying. Using this great measurement, he concludes that Josh Allen is the greatest thing since sliced bread. While Mahomes is garbage.
 

I’m a huge Allen fan, and think Mahomes is a whiner. But facts are facts, and this measurement is useless.  

28 minutes ago, Chaos said:

The general rule is that fans on this forum consider anything they don't understand "useless".  Which from the sole perspective of those that don't understand things is perfectly true. 

It drives me nuts that some folks think they’ve discovered a new science named “analytics “. Which is simply probability and statistics rebranded. 
 

and most of the analytics I see fail to validate their tools. The first post in this thread is a good example. 

[GoBills808]

10 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

Why would you use any measurement if it doesn’t help you analyze a decision?  Thats pretty clearly what op was saying. Using this great measurement, he concludes that Josh Allen is the greatest thing since sliced bread. While Mahomes is garbage.
 

I’m a huge Allen fan, and think Mahomes is a whiner. But facts are facts, and this measurement is useless.  

It drives me nuts that some folks think they’ve discovered a new science named “analytics “. Which is simply probability and statistics rebranded. 
 

and most of the analytics I see fail to validate their tools. The first post in this thread is a good example. 

You use it to determine performance as is the intention of most statistics. This particular one has very little to do w probabilities