How clutch was Josh in 2023? No other QB even came close

[Lost]

55 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree.  

 

First, as others have said, looking at these obscure collections of data is interesting but really not very useful.  We live an age where there's practically an infinite amount of data, and it can be sliced, diced, and presented in multiple ways.  The result is that there's always some collection of data that makes my guy look like a winner.  

 

Now, if Josh actually is having all these clutch 4th quarter drives AND the Bills are losing a lot of these games, there are only two conclusions:  Either (1) the defense isn't holding up or (2) the defense is holding up but on a later possession, the offense or special teams fail (give away, blocked punt, 3 and out, whatever).   I haven't seen that data, but my gut feeling is that this past season it was more often 1 and occasionally 2.  

 

Either way, I'd say this data supports an argument for more and better defense.  If your quarterback and your offense are making clutch plays at the rate this data suggests, it would seem that all you need for the team to succeed in close games is for the defense to perform average or better.  

 

I suppose the real question is this:  Can we see the same chart for how well the defense performed in the same game situations?

 

One further note:   I was clicking around to see the original of this chart, who compiled, etc., and I discovered that although the OP links to to this guy Kurt Benkert's tweet from yesterday, the chart first appears in a tweet from @waddlehouse17 on December 23.  He notes that the data is only through week 12, so this chart doesn't include however good or bad Josh was in the final weeks of the season.  

 

Our WR1 and WR2 combined for 61 catches for 684 yards in the last 7 games of the season plus 2 playoff games.  

 

That's an average of about 3.5 catches and 38 yards per game from each of the two skill positions.   Take away the Chargers game and our WR2 was almost completely non existent the second half of the season.   

 

Get Josh Some legitimate threats and good O-Line protection so we won't even need to worry about defense.   We'll be dropping 35+ points per game.  

[90sBills]

21 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

If Sherfield catches that ball we could've been spared. If Stef catches that perfect 60 yard pass we could've been spared. If James doesn't drop another easy td, we could've been spared.  I won't even bring up the defense because you can never rely on them in the playoffs. This isn't on Josh. Never has been...never will be.

Yeah the long ball drops were bad. But there were plenty of time left at that point so the game could not have been decided then. I was actually glad the deep shots didn’t work. The methodically moving the ball down while taking time off was the play. It was working perfectly until Allen had a brain fart towards the end. He needs to elevate his game in the playoffs (biggest moments) for this team to advance. All these regular season stuffs are meaningless. Contrast to Mahomes. His regular stats sucked this year. But come playoffs time he’s nails. I preferred Allen do that. Hopefully he will someday. 

[Shaw66]

Just now, Nephilim17 said:

You didn't quote the word that I italicized: consistent. This year the Bills offense was not consistent enough. I want to see that plus a field stretcher and true number 1 alpha receiver. I'm not saying we need to devote a first and second rounder to this, but take a real traits alpha guy who can stretch the field and win 50-50 battles. We haven't had that in a while. Then get a DE and safety and all the rest on D.

Yes, you said "consistent" but you said juggernaut.   There are no successful juggernauts.   Haven't been any since the Bills and Cowboys in the 90s.   Even the Chiefs have slipped dramatically.  

 

A "real traits alpha guy who can stretch the field" is a pipe dream.   When is the last time one of those guys won a Super Bowl?  Tyreek Hill, and the Chiefs have won two Super Bowls since letting him go.  And before Hill?   

 

We've all seen dozens or articles explaining how all the defenses around the league are stopping the deep ball and forcing even the best offenses to work underneath the deep protection, be patient, etc., etc.  Joe Burrow had two of those alpha guys and lost the Super Bowl.  

 

A good #1 has to be able to get deep, but in the current NFL, the most important skills for a good number have to do with being deadly on a whole variety of shorter throws.  Look at the Rams, the Lions, the 49ers, the Chiefs.   They're hurting people consistently with excellent receivers who hurt people underneath, not with the glitzy 6'4" burners who can slam-dunk 35-foot alley-oop passes on the basketball court.  

Just now, 90sBills said:

Yeah the long ball drops were bad. But there were plenty of time left at that point so the game could not have been decided then. I was actually glad the deep shots didn’t work. The methodically moving the ball down while taking time off was the play. It was working perfectly until Allen had a brain fart towards the end. He needs to elevate his game in the playoffs (biggest moments) for this team to advance. All these regular season stuffs are meaningless. Contrast to Mahomes. His regular stats sucked this year. But come playoffs time he’s nails. I preferred Allen do that. Hopefully he will someday. 

I agree.  There still are a few steps forward that Allen needs to make to be a truly great one, and those steps have to do with the intangibles that we all see in Mahomes.  I think he made big strides in that area in 2023, and I don't think he has far to go.  I so want Joe Brady to be the guy.  If Brady has the right offense and gets into Josh's head the right way, we'll begin to see the complete package, and it will be a thing to behold. 

[GoBills808]

2 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Yeah the long ball drops were bad. But there were plenty of time left at that point so the game could not have been decided then. I was actually glad the deep shots didn’t work. The methodically moving the ball down while taking time off was the play. It was working perfectly until Allen had a brain fart towards the end. He needs to elevate his game in the playoffs (biggest moments) for this team to advance. All these regular season stuffs are meaningless. Contrast to Mahomes. His regular stats sucked this year. But come playoffs time he’s nails. I preferred Allen do that. Hopefully he will someday. 

 

 

lol Allen's playoff performances are some of the best of all time

 

he averages more TDs and fewer INTs in the postseason than Mahomes

[Don Otreply]

15 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

As I've said, I think the offense has enough skill players to win, assuming Diggs is back and Brady does his job.  And as I just said, I absolutely do not think the answer is top-shelf receiver.  

 

I don't know whether the Bills have drafted a lot more defense than offense in the first couple of rounds.  A lot of people seem to think so, and for the sake of argument I'll agree with that thought (although Kincaid, Torrence, Cook, and of course Josh are good arguments to the contrary).   History is irrelevant.   I don't care if the Bills have drafted 20 defensive players to five offensive players, the question is, "what does the team need going forward from here?"   The answer to that question is defense.  And the answer definitely is not CeeDee Lamb or the equivalent.   

We certainly need to fill / refill the “D” but that can’t be to the exclusion of the offense, as you alluded to, you are correct in that what was done in the past is irrelevant, it is what needs to be done going forward that is important (which is always the case). I by no means think that our situation with signed defensive players is as big an issue as some make it, Beane has been fully aware for a couple of years as to what to do about it going forward, and likely has the pieces lined up/ in play, after all, it’s what GMs do. 

[90sBills]

17 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree.  There still are a few steps forward that Allen needs to make to be a truly great one, and those steps have to do with the intangibles that we all see in Mahomes.  I think he made big strides in that area in 2023, and I don't think he has far to go.  I so want Joe Brady to be the guy.  If Brady has the right offense and gets into Josh's head the right way, we'll begin to see the complete package, and it will be a thing to behold. 

Absolutely! Allen is the #2 guy right behind Mahomes. He is lacking behind in the mental aspect of the game. Grounds that he can make up through hard work. Most people on here keep saying he’s the best and just get more play makers and a Lombardi will magically appear.

[Don Otreply]

28 minutes ago, Lost said:

 

Our WR1 and WR2 combined for 61 catches for 684 yards in the last 7 games of the season plus 2 playoff games.  

 

That's an average of about 3.5 catches and 38 yards per game from each of the two skill positions.   Take away the Chargers game and our WR2 was almost completely non existent the second half of the season.   

 

Get Josh Some legitimate threats and good O-Line protection so we won't even need to worry about defense.   We'll be dropping 35+ points per game.  

Agree, our WR room definitely has needs,  one or two more legitimate receivers would go a long way in that direction, at the same time, Shaw66 is correct, our “D” needs not only to be refilled, it needs to have its schemes modified so that this endless fourth quarter/end of game failures get addressed, the seemingly purposeful sets that allow for easy five yard runs and passes to happen needs to be addressed. It’s quite frustrating to watch happen every postseason, 

[Ethan in Cleveland]

Has to be SuperBowl or bust for McDermott this year. He is rapidly running out of other people to blame.

His Ballshat process and winning mentality nonsense has run its course.

He's a loser coach with a HOF QB!

Any barely competent HC could lose at home in division round two years in a row.

Absolutely hate that this HC has cost us two legit chances at a Lombardi and has wasted the prime of Allen's career.

 

In Allen we must trust!!!!!

[ToGoGo]

Only things that are certain. Death. Taxes. And Bills "fans" on TBD downvoting the infinite statistics that show Allen is the best QB in the league. 

[Don Otreply]

5 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Absolutely! Allen is the #2 guy right behind Mahomes. He is lacking behind in the mental aspect of the game. Grounds that he can make up through hard work. Most people on here keep saying he’s the best and just get more play makers and a Lombardi will magically appear.

True enough, Imo opinion it’s a bit of both, #1, Allen certainly can and should make a priority to learn from what Reid/ Mahomes do on the field to win, and implement those things, (taking the short pass to move the chains for starters)  #2, at the same time our WRs one and two were both lacking in execution which resulted in mediocre to poor performances,  an up grade to that room would be nice…, 

[HappyDays]

44 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

The methodically moving the ball down while taking time off was the play. It was working perfectly until Allen had a brain fart towards the end.

 

Allen doesn't call the plays or set the progressions. You know that, right?

[Generic_Bills_Fan]

4 hours ago, Bob Jones said:

Just stop. Did not even make it to the AFCCG. Stats like this mean squat. Just win, baby.

One player can be clutch when the rest of the team very much is not lol that appears to be what is happening 

 

no idea how diggs can drop that pretty much uncontested deep ball when the jag mvs is hauling in contested catches all playoffs 

Edited February 16 by Generic_Bills_Fan

[BullBuchanan]

I'd rather he be closer to the red dot.

[Big Turk]

3 hours ago, BananaB said:

Until the post season and the final 2 minutes of games

 

With more weapons those would be decided well in advance of 2 minutes

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, 90sBills said:

Yeah the long ball drops were bad. But there were plenty of time left at that point so the game could not have been decided then. I was actually glad the deep shots didn’t work. The methodically moving the ball down while taking time off was the play. It was working perfectly until Allen had a brain fart towards the end. He needs to elevate his game in the playoffs (biggest moments) for this team to advance. All these regular season stuffs are meaningless. Contrast to Mahomes. His regular stats sucked this year. But come playoffs time he’s nails. I preferred Allen do that. Hopefully he will someday. 

Would I personally have liked to see him take the wide open pass to Diggs, yes.  But he always has and always will be a gunslinger.  I too would like to see him play a little more under control like Brady & Mahomes.  But he saw an open player and his line couldn't hold another millisecond. You take the td when its there.....But in the end, my biggest beef with this team is the inability of his teammates & coaches to step up their game. 

[beebe]

1 hour ago, pennstate10 said:

Lies damn lies and statistics. 
 

Any “clutch” metric that places Mahomes in the bottom 20%tile is severely flawed. 

This should be obvious. 
 

Just because someone makes a chart and puts it on Twitter doesn’t mean it’s useful. 

 

 

For this season, it is fact-based to say that Mahomes wasn't overly clutch, from a purely results-based standpoint. The Chiefs had a chance to score late vs the Lions, Eagles, Packers and Bills and came up short in all. Four losses. His only successful "clutch" performance came in the Super Bowl. 

 

The context behind the misses is:

 

vs Lions - Mahomes threw a perfect pass to Toney which would have set up the game-winning field goal, but Toney dropped it. 

 

vs Eagles - Mahomes threw what would have been a likely game-winning TD pass to MVS, but he dropped it at the goal line.

 

vs Packers - Mahomes threw what could have been a game-tying TD (2 pter needed) but refs missed blatant PI on pass to MVS at the goal line.

 

vs Bills - Mahomes threw what could have been a game-winning TD pass to Kelce (who then lateraled to Toney), but Toney was ruled Offside. 

[ExiledInIllinois]

4 hours ago, finn said:

This with a single top receiver--and even he dropped off a cliff midseason.

Screw the defense. Give this man three top receivers, good protection, and a run game, and he will score 75 points a game. 

But then opponents score 76.

 

...But we won't need a punter! LoL...

[pennstate10]

37 minutes ago, beebe said:

 

For this season, it is fact-based to say that Mahomes wasn't overly clutch, from a purely results-based standpoint. The Chiefs had a chance to score late vs the Lions, Eagles, Packers and Bills and came up short in all. Four losses. His only successful "clutch" performance came in the Super Bowl. 

 

The context behind the misses is:

 

vs Lions - Mahomes threw a perfect pass to Toney which would have set up the game-winning field goal, but Toney dropped it. 

 

vs Eagles - Mahomes threw what would have been a likely game-winning TD pass to MVS, but he dropped it at the goal line.

 

vs Packers - Mahomes threw what could have been a game-tying TD (2 pter needed) but refs missed blatant PI on pass to MVS at the goal line.

 

vs Bills - Mahomes threw what could have been a game-winning TD pass to Kelce (who then lateraled to Toney), but Toney was ruled Offside. 

My point still stands. 
 

Any time someone comes up with a new metric, ie “Win probability added per dropback”, you should ask yourself, how is this calculated?  And more importantly, has this been shown to be predictive on an independent data set?

 

Until I see evidence that this measurement is truly predictive, I’ll consider it useless. 
 

 

[nedboy7]

2 hours ago, Don Otreply said:

I would ask you these questions,

 

Do you feel that the defense has held it’s own during post season games since our HC came on board? 
 

Do you feel that we have drafted top level offensive players during our drafts regularly since our GM came on board? 
 

Me, I think our HC & GM are pretty good at most things, but that a shift in priorities is long since over due in player personnel acquisitions on the offensive side of the ball, primarily in drafting top shelf prospects for our receivers group. Is that what you refer to as one dimensional thinking? 
 

 

 

So the way you are asking these questions and discussing them is way different than calling him Mcdipshit and claiming the entire team is trash except for JA.  That is what my comment was about.  You have good points and I agree at some level.  McD has a 5-6 post season record.  Every post season ends with a loss except for one team.  That team recently has been KC where the D has not been good enough.  For the Cincy game I think its fair to say the O did not show up.  I just dont get coming here with one dimensional stupid takes and bashing everything they have achieved since they have fallen short of the ultimate goal.  If someone comes here daily to state the same thing which is the team and McD and Bean suck, they are not adding anything to the conversation. 

[Nephilim17]

It's not a binary argument: Josh needs a new number 1 WR AND the D needs to play better at the end of games, and this is dictated by both personnel and coaching. But if the brass takes a WR no earlier than the 3rd round this year, that's criminal.

Edited February 16 by Nephilim17