How clutch was Josh in 2023? No other QB even came close

[Shaw66]

1 hour ago, Dillenger4 said:

Pure drivel. Who cares where his nugget is on some useless graph. Yes,  Josh is good. We get that. But without a strong D we are going nowhere.

And, to you nimrods saying "seeee, look. Give him a WR and we are SB champs". This graph proves that we don't need a receiver. He is alreday clutch and we score. It's the D that craps the bed and can't stop anyone when it counts. Injuries, yes granted. But c'mon. Fix the D next season and we are lethal!

I agree.  

 

First, as others have said, looking at these obscure collections of data is interesting but really not very useful.  We live an age where there's practically an infinite amount of data, and it can be sliced, diced, and presented in multiple ways.  The result is that there's always some collection of data that makes my guy look like a winner.  

 

Now, if Josh actually is having all these clutch 4th quarter drives AND the Bills are losing a lot of these games, there are only two conclusions:  Either (1) the defense isn't holding up or (2) the defense is holding up but on a later possession, the offense or special teams fail (give away, blocked punt, 3 and out, whatever).   I haven't seen that data, but my gut feeling is that this past season it was more often 1 and occasionally 2.  

 

Either way, I'd say this data supports an argument for more and better defense.  If your quarterback and your offense are making clutch plays at the rate this data suggests, it would seem that all you need for the team to succeed in close games is for the defense to perform average or better.  

 

I suppose the real question is this:  Can we see the same chart for how well the defense performed in the same game situations?

 

One further note:   I was clicking around to see the original of this chart, who compiled, etc., and I discovered that although the OP links to to this guy Kurt Benkert's tweet from yesterday, the chart first appears in a tweet from @waddlehouse17 on December 23.  He notes that the data is only through week 12, so this chart doesn't include however good or bad Josh was in the final weeks of the season.  

[Kirby Jackson]

I haven’t read through the thread so I apologize if this has been mentioned. What’s interesting to me about the graphic is that it factors in a win % of 25%-75%. The Bills never get blown out. The amount of games where their win % dipped below 25% is miniscule. Every time that the win % jumps above 75% you have the game in hand. I’m not that concerned about how the QB is playing when you’re up 31-3 in the 4th. This graphic covers pretty much all other scenarios. It basically says, “when the game is close, late, Josh Allen is otherworldly.”

[TheFunPolice]

Josh Allen is so freaking good. The higher the stakes, the better he gets.

 

What we need is to surround him with weapons, like when Brown, Sanders, Beasley and Diggs were all here. Knox made plays back then too. 

 

We've slowly let the offensive weapons deteriorate little by little, and now we need a serious infusion of talent. Doesn't have to be all superstars, either. Brown and Beasley were nice players when we signed them, but hardly superstars. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I haven’t read through the thread so I apologize if this has been mentioned. What’s interesting to me about the graphic is that it factors in a win % of 25%-75%. The Bills never get blown out. The amount of games where their win % dipped below 25% is miniscule. Every time that the win % jumps above 75% you have the game in hand. I’m not that concerned about how the QB is playing when you’re up 31-3 in the 4th. This graphic covers pretty much all other scenarios. It basically says, “when the game is close, late, Josh Allen is otherworldly.”

yes that's what they call the garbage time filter

 

if you crank it up the whole way you can disregard everything except when the game is within 30-70% WP...helps to eliminate noise from blowouts

 

i don't think this is very surprising however, considering Allen finished second in WPadded to Prescott and Allen played well in a ton of close games

[Mr. WEO]

2 hours ago, finn said:

This with a single top receiver--and even he dropped off a cliff midseason.

Screw the defense. Give this man three top receivers, good protection, and a run game, and he will score 75 points a game. 

 

 

without a top receiver...

[Kirby Jackson]

10 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

yes that's what they call the garbage time filter

 

if you crank it up the whole way you can disregard everything except when the game is within 30-70% WP...helps to eliminate noise from blowouts

 

i don't think this is very surprising however, considering Allen finished second in WPadded to Prescott and Allen played well in a ton of close games

The big difference is that the 49ers, Bills and Packers games, had the Cowboys win percentage below 25% late. The Cowboys play earlier in those games, including Dak, is not held against them. The Bills do not have any such games. So basically, Josh Allen either had his team comfortably in control (win percentage over 75%) and it didn’t matter OR he was outstanding late in closer games. 

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

The big difference is that the 49ers, Bills and Packers games, had the Cowboys win percentage below 25% late. The Cowboys play earlier in those games, including Dak, is not held against them. The Bills do not have any such games. So basically, Josh Allen either had his team comfortably in control (win percentage over 75%) and it didn’t matter OR he was outstanding late in closer games. 

yup

 

it doesn't tell you that if the QB play contributed negatively early on which is important context

 

but really any way you slice it Allen reliably comes through in the big moments

[90sBills]

Gotta do it in the playoffs. If he executed that final drive in the KC game correctly (clutch) we might’ve been spared of 6 mos KC slobbering by the media. 

[Nephilim17]

31 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

this data supports an argument for more and better defense. 

The problem is, the Bills have been allocating more resources in the draft and free agency to defense. And it's not working. So do we just continue to do the same thing? I don't have to roll out the old Einstein quote here.

I'd suggest the problem might not be throwing more resources at the D, but different late-game coaching.

And, in fairness, the D was missing key players this year. But let's turn this offense into a consistent juggernaut instead funneling most of the assets into the D.

[Kirby Jackson]

3 minutes ago, GoBills808 said:

yup

 

it doesn't tell you that if the QB play contributed negatively early on which is important context

 

but really any way you slice it Allen reliably comes through in the big moments

It truly is insane how good he has actually been. The deeper the stats go the more it makes him shine. As you remove “luck” and really look at what he is responsible for, there isn’t anyone close. 

[Don Otreply]

45 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

The never ending one dimensional thinking on here.  Not sure what it accomplishes other than sounding stupid. 

I would ask you these questions,

 

Do you feel that the defense has held it’s own during post season games since our HC came on board? 
 

Do you feel that we have drafted top level offensive players during our drafts regularly since our GM came on board? 
 

Me, I think our HC & GM are pretty good at most things, but that a shift in priorities is long since over due in player personnel acquisitions on the offensive side of the ball, primarily in drafting top shelf prospects for our receivers group. Is that what you refer to as one dimensional thinking? 
 

 

Edited February 16 by Don Otreply

[Kirby Jackson]

4 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Gotta do it in the playoffs. If he executed that final drive in the KC game correctly (clutch) we might’ve been spared of 6 mos KC slobbering by the media. 

What are you talking about? The throw to the end zone was the absolute right decision. His arm just got hit. His COACHING STAFF & TEAM failed him as they have so many other times. 

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, nucci said:

why the numerous threads about how great Allen is? We already know this.

Yeah I agree.  I don't need to be convinced by anyone as to Josh's greatest. The ball is now in the court for his coaches & teammates. They're the problem. 

Edited February 16 by LABILLBACKER

[GoBills808]

1 minute ago, Kirby Jackson said:

It truly is insane how good he has actually been. The deeper the stats go the more it makes him shine. As you remove “luck” and really look at what he is responsible for, there isn’t anyone close. 

i agree 100%

 

Allen is (at current pace) unfortunately going to end up being the Allen Iverson of the NFL

 

absolute unicorn in terms of offensive production but fated to be largely ignored by history because his style was too unorthodox and lack of championships

[LABILLBACKER]

7 minutes ago, 90sBills said:

Gotta do it in the playoffs. If he executed that final drive in the KC game correctly (clutch) we might’ve been spared of 6 mos KC slobbering by the media. 

If Sherfield catches that ball we could've been spared. If Stef catches that perfect 60 yard pass we could've been spared. If James doesn't drop another easy td, we could've been spared.  I won't even bring up the defense because you can never rely on them in the playoffs. This isn't on Josh. Never has been...never will be.

[pennstate10]

3 hours ago, DJB said:

 

Lies damn lies and statistics. 
 

Any “clutch” metric that places Mahomes in the bottom 20%tile is severely flawed. 

This should be obvious. 
 

Just because someone makes a chart and puts it on Twitter doesn’t mean it’s useful. 

 

[BuffaloButt]

2 hours ago, Bob Jones said:

Just stop. Did not even make it to the AFCCG. Stats like this mean squat. Just win, baby.

Raiders SUCK!!!

[Shaw66]

5 minutes ago, Nephilim17 said:

The problem is, the Bills have been allocating more resources in the draft and free agency to defense. And it's not working. So do we just continue to do the same thing? I don't have to roll out the old Einstein quote here.

I'd suggest the problem might not be throwing more resources at the D, but different late-game coaching.

And, in fairness, the D was missing key players this year. But let's turn this offense into a consistent juggernaut instead funneling most of the assets into the D.

Well, I absolutely agree that coaching probably is part of the problem.   The Bills' linebacker woes notwithstanding, there was something of a defensive meltdown against the Chiefs, and I think you have to look to the coaching and preparation for that game as part of the problem.  

 

But I disagree about this notion of an offensive juggernaut.   I think fans, including me, love to think of their team having this explosive team that just rolls over opponents, over and over.  Big wins, high scores, etc.   The problem is that although our eyes can imagine that kind of team, it is rare for that team actually to exist in December and January in the NFL.  The Lions faltered, the Dolphins faltered, and finally the 49ers falter.  With only a few exceptions, and usually only in the wild-card rounds, are games decided by some team scoring 30+ points and putting the game away in the 4th quarter.  The defenses are too good, and they're getting better. 

 

So, I'm all in having the 2024 focus be on making the defense better.  Defense is what failed the Bills late this season, and defense is what wins in the playoffs.  High-flying offenses get stopped, and offenses that have effective, creative QBs who can grind it out are what wins.  The Bills have that offense, but it needs to be a little better.  It's instructive to see the Chiefs winning after letting Tyreek Hill walk, and the Dolphins continue to falter.  The devastating one-on-one deep threat pass receivers is fun to watch, but he's not the key to winning championships.  

[Shaw66]

16 minutes ago, Don Otreply said:

I would ask you these questions,

 

Do you feel that the defense has held it’s own during post season games since our HC came on board? 
 

Do you feel that we have drafted top level offensive players during our drafts regularly since our GM came on board? 
 

Me, I think our HC & GM are pretty good at most things, but that a shift in priorities is long since over due in player personnel acquisitions on the offensive side of the ball, primarily in drafting top shelf prospects for our receivers group. Is that what you refer to as one dimensional thinking? 
 

 

As I've said, I think the offense has enough skill players to win, assuming Diggs is back and Brady does his job.  And as I just said, I absolutely do not think the answer is top-shelf receiver.  

 

I don't know whether the Bills have drafted a lot more defense than offense in the first couple of rounds.  A lot of people seem to think so, and for the sake of argument I'll agree with that thought (although Kincaid, Torrence, Cook, and of course Josh are good arguments to the contrary).   History is irrelevant.   I don't care if the Bills have drafted 20 defensive players to five offensive players, the question is, "what does the team need going forward from here?"   The answer to that question is defense.  And the answer definitely is not CeeDee Lamb or the equivalent.   

[Nephilim17]

6 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

But I disagree about this notion of an offensive juggernaut. 

You didn't quote the word that I italicized: consistent. This year the Bills offense was not consistent enough. I want to see that plus a field stretcher and true number 1 alpha receiver. I'm not saying we need to devote a first and second rounder to this, but take a real traits alpha guy who can stretch the field and win 50-50 battles. We haven't had that in a while. Then get a DE and safety and all the rest on D.