Final in depth Salary Cap update by the Cover 1 crew

[BarleyNY]

14 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

This is why the injury buyout option is there

This is incorrect. several of us have covered injury settlements already, so I won’t go into it again. It doesn’t apply in this situation.

 

Tre White has a roster bonus of $1.5M due on 3/18/24. If the Bills choose not to pay that, then he’s a FA immediately. While teams can’t waive an injured player (at least w/o the player’s approval which usually comes in the form of an injury settlement), there is no such restriction on not paying a roster bonus. This situation is why teams insist on including them in contracts. Players insist on them being as early in the offseason as possible for obvious reasons. 

[CaptnCoke11]

1 hour ago, Beck Water said:

 

I agree Tre is one of the trickiest decisions facing the team.

 

I'm really curious where you're getting ACL takes 18 full months of recovery but Achilles is 8 months.

 

I don't think that matches data on actual RTP time

 

 

I think on against players he’s probably pretty accurate with those numbers 

[BufBills83]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

If the Bills are able to do everything on their list they could conceivably cut $90 mill from the cap.  
 

Done if the things they suggested, like giving Morse and Poyer pay cuts aren’t happening.  Both might sign some kind extension to get their cap hit down but neither is agreeing to a pay cut.  They also suggested only giving pay cuts to Harty and Hines.  Sorry, but I doubt both will be back next season.  Harty is easily replaced and Hines is a huge injury risk.   I’d move on from both and save all 8.7.

 

Their other big money grab, besides Josh, was a Diggs restructure.  They argue he is going to be here another 3 years regardless because of his contract and we need to win now.  I was against it at first, but they convinced me.  Clearing 13 mill for Diggs could be the difference in re-signing Jones or a good replacement or having to go with a rookie or cheap UFA.  

PS Why do so many people think we should cut Morse?  I understand the cap savings, but last season the O line was a huge strength.  Why weaken it by dumping the anchor of the line who stayed healthy and played great? I think Beane likely agrees with me and if Morse wants to return he will.  

 

 

I don't want to cut Morse either.  I agree, the oline was greatly improved last year and keeping the same starting 5 will only help the line improve and be more consistent.

[Billl]

9 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Looks like the cover 1 guys tried there best to have a McBeane type off-season. Re-signing older vets an even adding more like Zeke . 

 

When will the Bills learn ? when will they have that one off-season were tough decisions are made for the betterment of the future of this team? I believe this is the perfect off-season to make these tough calls that need to be made. The cap is nearly out of control 50+ mil over the Bills need to embrace a mini rebuild which means cutting the fat getting these older vets out. In the off-season of 1999 the Bills cut 3 future hofers on the same day Bruce, Thurman & Reed it was a tough decision but it had to be made .

 

We should cut Tre, Morse & Poyer and not re-sign DaQuan it's time to move in a new direction. DaQuan has gotten hurt multiple times the last 2 seasons by the playoffs he's a shell of himself or flat out not available like against the Bengals. Tre well 2 devastating injuries the last 3 yrs which basically means he hasn't helped us in 3 yrs. Poyer also seems to hit a wall towards the end of the yr himself. This is what happens to older vets this is reality. 

 

We have 10pks in the draft embrace the draft take BPA in every Rd and let these young players play. In free agency target players that are 28 & younger . It's time to enter the 2nd phase of the Josh Allen era . It's time to find the leaders of tmrw for this team and not hold on to the leaders of yesterday.. 

This is the answer, IMO.  Beane and McDermott came to Buffalo with a plan, and they built up a championship caliber roster by following it.  They didn’t quite win a championship, but they were a top 3 franchise over a 5 year span.  That ship has sailed, and now it’s time to start over.  Instead, they seem to be throwing good money after bad trying to run it back with a roster that’s 2-3 years past its peak.  

 

If I’m Pegula, I’m telling them that it’s time to clear out all of the old and/or injured players and start fresh with a youth movement.  There’s simply no reason that so many of Beane’s draft picks can’t get on the field until they’ve wasted half their rookie contracts.  You watched Wyatt Teller waste away on the practice squad because they wouldn’t put him on the field.  Bernard barely played his rookie year, and then he looked like a monster year two.  This year, White goes down and they traded a top 100 pick for a 30 year old CB with a fat contract a year after trading up in the first to draft Elam who can’t crack the lineup?  Are you kidding me?

 

Everybody wants to point to regular season wins against the Chiefs, but the reality is that Andy Reid uses the regular season to let his young players take their lumps.  By the time the postseason rolls around, the youngsters who can play are out there contributing and those who can’t are wearing street clothes on the sideline.  Meanwhile, OBD watches their old and/or injury prone players look old and injured in week 20 and now the discussion is how to pay these guys more money by borrowing from the future.

 

If the goal is to be competitive every year and keep McBeane’s jobs safe, then they should keep doing what they’ve been doing.  But if it’s really to win a championship, then it’s time to come up with a new 3-5 year plan.  The good news is this time they’re starting with a HOF QB, so they’re halfway there.  Stop pretending that guys like Hyde and Poyer and White and Douglas and Floyd and probably even Diggs are part of the solution.  Go get younger, faster, healthier, and cheaper while Josh is in his prime.

[GoBills808]

9 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

Looks like the cover 1 guys tried there best to have a McBeane type off-season. Re-signing older vets an even adding more like Zeke . 

 

When will the Bills learn ? when will they have that one off-season were tough decisions are made for the betterment of the future of this team? I believe this is the perfect off-season to make these tough calls that need to be made. The cap is nearly out of control 50+ mil over the Bills need to embrace a mini rebuild which means cutting the fat getting these older vets out. In the off-season of 1999 the Bills cut 3 future hofers on the same day Bruce, Thurman & Reed it was a tough decision but it had to be made .

 

We should cut Tre, Morse & Poyer and not re-sign DaQuan it's time to move in a new direction. DaQuan has gotten hurt multiple times the last 2 seasons by the playoffs he's a shell of himself or flat out not available like against the Bengals. Tre well 2 devastating injuries the last 3 yrs which basically means he hasn't helped us in 3 yrs. Poyer also seems to hit a wall towards the end of the yr himself. This is what happens to older vets this is reality. 

 

We have 10pks in the draft embrace the draft take BPA in every Rd and let these young players play. In free agency target players that are 28 & younger . It's time to enter the 2nd phase of the Josh Allen era . It's time to find the leaders of tmrw for this team and not hold on to the leaders of yesterday.. 

This is correct imo and I think they need to go further tbh

Just find a way out and roll w a bunch of rookies...it's not like we won't still be competitive for the division. This team needs a big reset 

[Aussie Joe]

21 minutes ago, Billl said:

This is the answer, IMO.  Beane and McDermott came to Buffalo with a plan, and they built up a championship caliber roster by following it.  They didn’t quite win a championship, but they were a top 3 franchise over a 5 year span.  That ship has sailed, and now it’s time to start over.  Instead, they seem to be throwing good money after bad trying to run it back with a roster that’s 2-3 years past its peak.  

 

If I’m Pegula, I’m telling them that it’s time to clear out all of the old and/or injured players and start fresh with a youth movement.  There’s simply no reason that so many of Beane’s draft picks can’t get on the field until they’ve wasted half their rookie contracts.  You watched Wyatt Teller waste away on the practice squad because they wouldn’t put him on the field.  Bernard barely played his rookie year, and then he looked like a monster year two.  This year, White goes down and they traded a top 100 pick for a 30 year old CB with a fat contract a year after trading up in the first to draft Elam who can’t crack the lineup?  Are you kidding me?

 

Everybody wants to point to regular season wins against the Chiefs, but the reality is that Andy Reid uses the regular season to let his young players take their lumps.  By the time the postseason rolls around, the youngsters who can play are out there contributing and those who can’t are wearing street clothes on the sideline.  Meanwhile, OBD watches their old and/or injury prone players look old and injured in week 20 and now the discussion is how to pay these guys more money by borrowing from the future.

 

If the goal is to be competitive every year and keep McBeane’s jobs safe, then they should keep doing what they’ve been doing.  But if it’s really to win a championship, then it’s time to come up with a new 3-5 year plan.  The good news is this time they’re starting with a HOF QB, so they’re halfway there.  Stop pretending that guys like Hyde and Poyer and White and Douglas and Floyd and probably even Diggs are part of the solution.  Go get younger, faster, healthier, and cheaper while Josh is in his prime.

im assuming the only time you watched Douglas play this year for the Bills was when he was playing injured against the Chiefs in the playoffs?
 

He played great during the season … he will be the first person they extend ..

[BADOLBILZ]

13 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

1. 1-tech DTs play well into their mid 30s.
2. They said that they think AJ Epenesa may command higher dollars on the market than Floyd and we get a comp pick from AJ but none from Floyd. They're not saying Floyd is worth big bucks but suggested that for $5 or $6 million he would be a decent signing. Someone also suggested Floyd may have been playing hurt later in the season.

3. I think losing both Hyde and Poyer in one year is too much and we need a vet who knows the system. 

Yes, I agree we need to get younger. They were fairly high on Tre coming back, possibly on a reduced salary and they said achilles injuries are no longer as significant as they once were.

 

The podcast was enlightening. They convinced me that there's a chance Diggs was hurt and his playing style ages well so cutting him is not worth the hit this season or next. I could go either way on that if we sign someone in free agency and a draft a potential WR1 in the draft.

 

They said the Bills cap in a couple years would actually be in a good place so pushing dollars into the future, as bad as it sounds, isn't horrible given our future cap space.

And another notable comment from the podcast: Von's $120 million contract only had a $5 million hit the first year; so we could potentially sign someone decent and not have a big hit the first year. One guy pushed for Houston's Johnathan Greenard if he's not re-signed.

Another guy cited 4 WRs in free agency (Samuels, Bourne, maybe Ridley and a fourth guy...) and he said he thinks one of the four will miss out just because of the market on the $10 million pay day and maybe he could be available at an affordable rate.

Chin as safety was also talked about....

I'm Ok with a free agent mini splash at DE, DT and maybe safety if we keep Diggs and get a stud WR in the first. 

 

 

1.  Do nose tackles and 1 tech DT's really normally play well into their mid 30's?    I think I've mostly heard to the contrary on that prior to this podcast.   There are more obviously proven exceptions(see Marcell Dareus) but I look at generational prospects like Haloti Ngata and Dontari Poe who were pretty washed at 30-31.   Interior DL seems to be more of a younger mans game, IMO.  Edge rushers seem to have a better track record for aging well.

 

In general these Cover 1 guys are WAY too sentimental about players.  The Bills have largely avoided making tough decisions on vets in recent years..........and its lead to them having one of the oldest rosters year-in and year-out.    IMO it's also contributed some to their tendency toward mid-season malaises.    They really need to get younger and take advantage of their organizational stability by giving some more reps to younger players.   

 

 

 

 

Edited February 17 by BADOLBILZ

[BADOLBILZ]

4 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

If the Bills are able to do everything on their list they could conceivably cut $90 mill from the cap.  
 

Done if the things they suggested, like giving Morse and Poyer pay cuts aren’t happening.  Both might sign some kind extension to get their cap hit down but neither is agreeing to a pay cut.  They also suggested only giving pay cuts to Harty and Hines.  Sorry, but I doubt both will be back next season.  Harty is easily replaced and Hines is a huge injury risk.   I’d move on from both and save all 8.7.

 

Their other big money grab, besides Josh, was a Diggs restructure.  They argue he is going to be here another 3 years regardless because of his contract and we need to win now.  I was against it at first, but they convinced me.  Clearing 13 mill for Diggs could be the difference in re-signing Jones or a good replacement or having to go with a rookie or cheap UFA.  

PS Why do so many people think we should cut Morse?  I understand the cap savings, but last season the O line was a huge strength.  Why weaken it by dumping the anchor of the line who stayed healthy and played great? I think Beane likely agrees with me and if Morse wants to return he will.  

 

 

 

Why is it a guarantee that you weaken the line by subtracting Mitch Morse?    He's a pretty average center IMO.   Not a difference maker any longer.  They have Bates and Alec Anderson under contract in reserve and it's a very deep center draft.     Timing seems good, IMO.   

[pennstate10]

23 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I would like to have Daquan Jones back but I think he probably signs with the Chicago Bears right away in free agency.  

 

I was told by a reliable source that he packed up his entire household in Buffalo after the season and moved everything to Nashville............he could have waited on that if he thought he might have to stay in Buffalo.       

 

 

If your source is correct, I’d guess that Jones has a nice house in Nashville, where he played for 8 years. Not impossible to imagine that he agreed with family to live in Bflo during the season and then go back to a home in Nashville. I’ve never lived in Nashville but I’d guess that winters there are more pleasant than Bflo. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, Billl said:

This is the answer, IMO.  Beane and McDermott came to Buffalo with a plan, and they built up a championship caliber roster by following it.  They didn’t quite win a championship, but they were a top 3 franchise over a 5 year span.  That ship has sailed, and now it’s time to start over.  Instead, they seem to be throwing good money after bad trying to run it back with a roster that’s 2-3 years past its peak.  

 

If I’m Pegula, I’m telling them that it’s time to clear out all of the old and/or injured players and start fresh with a youth movement.  There’s simply no reason that so many of Beane’s draft picks can’t get on the field until they’ve wasted half their rookie contracts.  You watched Wyatt Teller waste away on the practice squad because they wouldn’t put him on the field.  Bernard barely played his rookie year, and then he looked like a monster year two.  This year, White goes down and they traded a top 100 pick for a 30 year old CB with a fat contract a year after trading up in the first to draft Elam who can’t crack the lineup?  Are you kidding me?

 

Everybody wants to point to regular season wins against the Chiefs, but the reality is that Andy Reid uses the regular season to let his young players take their lumps.  By the time the postseason rolls around, the youngsters who can play are out there contributing and those who can’t are wearing street clothes on the sideline.  Meanwhile, OBD watches their old and/or injury prone players look old and injured in week 20 and now the discussion is how to pay these guys more money by borrowing from the future.

 

If the goal is to be competitive every year and keep McBeane’s jobs safe, then they should keep doing what they’ve been doing.  But if it’s really to win a championship, then it’s time to come up with a new 3-5 year plan.  The good news is this time they’re starting with a HOF QB, so they’re halfway there.  Stop pretending that guys like Hyde and Poyer and White and Douglas and Floyd and probably even Diggs are part of the solution.  Go get younger, faster, healthier, and cheaper while Josh is in his prime.

Spot on.  We should dump salaries this offseason as much as possible and retool through the draft.

[HappyDays]

3 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

If your source is correct, I’d guess that Jones has a nice house in Nashville, where he played for 8 years. Not impossible to imagine that he agreed with family to live in Bflo during the season and then go back to a home in Nashville. I’ve never lived in Nashville but I’d guess that winters there are more pleasant than Bflo. 

 

My source told me there have been no substantive contract discussions with DQ since his injury. The team is going to let the DT market play out, as they should. Perhaps Beane has finally learned, out of necessity, that you can't waste money on loyalty to players. He's wasted money on pay cuts to players like Butler, Hines, and Settle, instead of just letting them go and realizing the most possible savings. It's time for him to get ruthless and let players discover on their own that they don't have a market. For a similar reason I want them to cut Tre, not offer him a pay cut. It's a ruthless move but the right one for the future.

[pennstate10]

4 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

My source told me there have been no substantive contract discussions with DQ since his injury. The team is going to let the DT market play out, as they should. Perhaps Beane has finally learned, out of necessity, that you can't waste money on loyalty to players. He's wasted money on pay cuts to players like Butler, Hines, and Settle, instead of just letting them go and realizing the most possible savings. It's time for him to get ruthless and let players discover on their own that they don't have a market. For a similar reason I want them to cut Tre, not offer him a pay cut. It's a ruthless move but the right one for the future.

Your source may well be correct, but most of Bill reporters and NFL observers state that Jones should be a top priority for Bills to resign. 
I guess we’ll learn within a month. 

[Nephilim17]

The podcast alluded to the Bills wanting to shift to more man coverage this year.

 

I don't recall McD saying that or reading it in any articles thus far. Anyone able to comment?

[transplantbillsfan]

3 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

I think the easiest move to start with is to cut both Harty & Hines. It immediately saves 8.7M. It's not like punts and returns happen that often anyway.  Nor did Dorsey or Brady incorporate them into the offense to begin with. Draft a wr in the 4th or beyond who can also return. 

 

Cut one. Paycut for the other to be our full time returner.

 

If we knew Hines were going to be healthy I'd prefer to keep him and cut Harty since we only have Cook on the roster at RB right now and I really just want an infusion of new blood in the WR room.

 

My bold prediction for next season as of this moment is that either Isabella or Hamler make the roster next season and actually contribute.

[GASabresIUFan]

21 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Why is it a guarantee that you weaken the line by subtracting Mitch Morse?    He's a pretty average center IMO.   Not a difference maker any longer.  They have Bates and Alec Anderson under contract in reserve and it's a very deep center draft.     Timing seems good, IMO.   

If Bates was a better option at center than Morse he would have beat him out for the starting job last season.  Instead, Bates only played 3% of the offensive snaps last season.  Bates is a very good depth O lineman.  He can backup at center and both guard positions.  Who knows what Anderson can or can't do as he hasn't even played a down for the Bills.  

 

Where I agree with you is the depth at center in the draft.  I would love for the Bills to draft Van Pran from UGA.  This would allow the Bills to trade Bates, saving another $5 mill in cap. Van Pran could then be mentored by Morse for a year or two and then take over when Morse retires.  I watched Van Pran for years at UGA and he will be a very good to excellent pro center.  

[Aussie Joe]

7 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

If Bates was a better option at center than Morse he would have beat him out for the starting job last season.  Instead, Bates only played 3% of the offensive snaps last season.  Bates is a very good depth O lineman.  He can backup at center and both guard positions.  Who knows what Anderson can or can't do as he hasn't even played a down for the Bills.  

 

Where I agree with you is the depth at center in the draft.  I would love for the Bills to draft Van Pran from UGA.  This would allow the Bills to trade Bates, saving another $5 mill in cap. Van Pran could then be mentored by Morse for a year or two and then take over when Morse retires.  I watched Van Pran for years at UGA and he will be a very good to excellent pro center.  

So they going to draft Van Pran at pick 60?

 
I’ll believe that when I see it …

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

14 minutes ago, pennstate10 said:

If your source is correct, I’d guess that Jones has a nice house in Nashville, where he played for 8 years. Not impossible to imagine that he agreed with family to live in Bflo during the season and then go back to a home in Nashville. I’ve never lived in Nashville but I’d guess that winters there are more pleasant than Bflo. 

 

 

Yeah it's just an interesting detail considering how happy he seemed to be about moving closer to his central NY home/family/business interests when he came to the Bills.   Not your typical Bills player that is originally from the south or CA.   It's pretty common for players to have fully stocked homes in 2 places and his playing situation would surely be cleared up in 2-3 months so packing everything up and taking it back to TN is notable.   Even if he and his wife just wanted to spend the winter in Nashville and then re-locate in Buffalo if he re-signs it wouldn't seem necessary to move twice.   Maybe he just plans to come back without the wife and daughter(like when he played for Carolina) if he does re-sign?   Could be a lot of things but it's notable under the circumstance.

[Dr. Who]

1 hour ago, Aussie Joe said:

im assuming the only time you watched Douglas play this year for the Bills was when he was playing injured against the Chiefs in the playoffs?
 

He played great during the season … he will be the first person they extend ..

I agree on Douglas, he fits McD's D well. The global point, however, is spot on. 

[BADOLBILZ]

27 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

If Bates was a better option at center than Morse he would have beat him out for the starting job last season.  Instead, Bates only played 3% of the offensive snaps last season.  Bates is a very good depth O lineman.  He can backup at center and both guard positions.  Who knows what Anderson can or can't do as he hasn't even played a down for the Bills.  

 

Where I agree with you is the depth at center in the draft.  I would love for the Bills to draft Van Pran from UGA.  This would allow the Bills to trade Bates, saving another $5 mill in cap. Van Pran could then be mentored by Morse for a year or two and then take over when Morse retires.  I watched Van Pran for years at UGA and he will be a very good to excellent pro center.  

 

 

Maybe at age 27 Bates will be a better option than Morse at age 32.   That's often how it works.   But for $8M difference if it's close, it's enough.   I also like Anderson's potential(another OT kicked inside like Morse and Bates) and I even think maybe McGovern might be a better center option longer term if the Bills decide to go with a more physical left guard in 2025.   They aren't bereft of options at center like they are at RT behind Brown, for instance.

 

Again.........it's a strong OL draft.   If they invested in a top 3 round center that guy is starting, IMO.   They don't have the luxury of picking a non-primo position early and cultivating it given their cap circumstance.   Lot of future starting centers in this draft though.  Maybe as many as 8?    

[GASabresIUFan]

38 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

So they going to draft Van Pran at pick 60?

 
I’ll believe that when I see it …

 

 

I'm hoping he slips to the 80's.  I'm hoping the Bills trade down in the first to pick up an extra 3rd.  With that extra 3rd, and if we get lucky, Van Pran will be sitting there for us to take with the acquired pick.

 

https://www.drafttek.com/nfl-trade-value-chart.asp

 

It will take two trades to get into the 80s.  

1 - Buffalo trades 28 & 206 to Ari for 35 & 90

2 - Buffalo trades 90 & 162 to Cleveland for 85 & 228

 

Edited February 17 by GASabresIUFan