Final in depth Salary Cap update by the Cover 1 crew

[Nephilim17]

10 hours ago, dpberr said:

I have a difficult time understanding the why:

 

1. Resigning a 33 year old DT (come December 2024) who played in just seven games last year, is a high priority for this team. 
2. Resigning a 32 year old pass rusher who faded in the second half of the season.
3. The importance of keeping a demonstrably slower Jordan Poyer and a cornerback (White) that's had two season ending injuries in the past 3 years. 

The Bills have to get out of the business of old players, especially on defense and how much of the finite cap dollars do you want tied up in seeing what Tre White's got?.  That's the hard decision to make. 

 

 

1. 1-tech DTs play well into their mid 30s.
2. They said that they think AJ Epenesa may command higher dollars on the market than Floyd and we get a comp pick from AJ but none from Floyd. They're not saying Floyd is worth big bucks but suggested that for $5 or $6 million he would be a decent signing. Someone also suggested Floyd may have been playing hurt later in the season.

3. I think losing both Hyde and Poyer in one year is too much and we need a vet who knows the system. 

Yes, I agree we need to get younger. They were fairly high on Tre coming back, possibly on a reduced salary and they said achilles injuries are no longer as significant as they once were.

 

The podcast was enlightening. They convinced me that there's a chance Diggs was hurt and his playing style ages well so cutting him is not worth the hit this season or next. I could go either way on that if we sign someone in free agency and a draft a potential WR1 in the draft.

 

They said the Bills cap in a couple years would actually be in a good place so pushing dollars into the future, as bad as it sounds, isn't horrible given our future cap space.

And another notable comment from the podcast: Von's $120 million contract only had a $5 million hit the first year; so we could potentially sign someone decent and not have a big hit the first year. One guy pushed for Houston's Johnathan Greenard if he's not re-signed.

Another guy cited 4 WRs in free agency (Samuels, Bourne, maybe Ridley and a fourth guy...) and he said he thinks one of the four will miss out just because of the market on the $10 million pay day and maybe he could be available at an affordable rate.

Chin as safety was also talked about....

I'm Ok with a free agent mini splash at DE, DT and maybe safety if we keep Diggs and get a stud WR in the first. 

Edited February 17 by Nephilim17

[Beck Water]

4 hours ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

Because until he can pass a physical he can't be cut. 

 

The physical Tre has to pass isn't to show he has returned to form.  His Achilles injury has to have healed, that's all.  He doesn't have to have completed rehab to maximal performance.

 

The timeline for healing up and being able to walk post Achilles surgery is about 3 months.  Tre should be there in early March.  And teams write contracts so that bonuses get paid 5 days into the new league year for just this reason - so they can bring players in, give them a physical, and say "OK, your injury has healed".

[NastyNateSoldiers]

13 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I looked at his list and the Athletic’s list and there are 13 guys they agree have potential cap savings, but not necessarily on what to do. Both ended up with 70 million in cap savings.  They both looked at restructuring Allen, McGovern, Knox, Milano and Bates.  They also agreed on extensions for Dawkins, Douglas and T. Johnson.  Where they disagreed on how to get the cap savings was Harty, Hines, White, Poyer and Morse.  Tompsett suggests pay cuts for all 5 players.  Hines and Harty may take a cut, but Poyer and Morse won’t.  White may take a cut, but I doubt that as well. The Athletic suggests extensions for White and Morse using void years and non-guarantees (White) to get the cap down and a restructuring for Poyer.  Personally, I’d move on from both Harty and Hines and save 8.7 million.  Both are easily replaced.

 

Tompsett also suggested looking at restructuring Diggs since he isn’t going anywhere for the next 3 years, releasing Martin, a pay cut for Neal and restructure for Oliver.  These moves could potentially save another 20+.  
 

Re-signing D Jones was the panels highest priority.  Others mentioned Edwards, Floyd, Ty Johnson, Epenesa (although he’s probably too expensive to re-sign) and Dane Jackson or Rapp.  
 

They also mentioned Elliott at RB and Mooney at WR.  

Looks like the cover 1 guys tried there best to have a McBeane type off-season. Re-signing older vets an even adding more like Zeke . 

 

When will the Bills learn ? when will they have that one off-season were tough decisions are made for the betterment of the future of this team? I believe this is the perfect off-season to make these tough calls that need to be made. The cap is nearly out of control 50+ mil over the Bills need to embrace a mini rebuild which means cutting the fat getting these older vets out. In the off-season of 1999 the Bills cut 3 future hofers on the same day Bruce, Thurman & Reed it was a tough decision but it had to be made .

 

We should cut Tre, Morse & Poyer and not re-sign DaQuan it's time to move in a new direction. DaQuan has gotten hurt multiple times the last 2 seasons by the playoffs he's a shell of himself or flat out not available like against the Bengals. Tre well 2 devastating injuries the last 3 yrs which basically means he hasn't helped us in 3 yrs. Poyer also seems to hit a wall towards the end of the yr himself. This is what happens to older vets this is reality. 

 

We have 10pks in the draft embrace the draft take BPA in every Rd and let these young players play. In free agency target players that are 28 & younger . It's time to enter the 2nd phase of the Josh Allen era . It's time to find the leaders of tmrw for this team and not hold on to the leaders of yesterday.. 

[Matt_In_NH]

17 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I’m trying to figure out why people think Tre’Davious White wouldn’t take a pay cut

 

Two. Devastating injuries to both of his legs getting on in years.

 

He seems like a prime candidate for a paycut

What makes you think people think that?   The question is more how much of a cut and weighing any cut he is willing to take with just moving on which might be the better option.

17 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Those guys think Diggs will still be a 100 catch WR. Did they not watch how Brady deployed him? 
 

 

It is not unreasonable to think that given his history and skill level.  I understand the decline he had which started under Dorsey for a couple games.   Brady will have to work it because Diggs route running and hands say it makes sense.  I think the chances he just hit a physical wall after week 6 and can never regain that level of play are small.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

7 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

What makes you think people think that?   The question is more how much of a cut and weighing any cut he is willing to take with just moving on which might be the better option.

It is not unreasonable to think that given his history and skill level.  I understand the decline he had which started under Dorsey for a couple games.   Brady will have to work it because Diggs route running and hands say it makes sense.  I think the chances he just hit a physical wall after week 6 and can never regain that level of play are small.

It’s not really about a decline. Brady likes to get the ball in playmakers hands and let them run after catch. That’s not Diggs. 
 

 

[Matt_In_NH]

1 minute ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

It’s not really about a decline. Brady likes to get the ball in playmakers hands and let them run after catch. That’s not Diggs. 
 

 

That is a generality and not absolute.

[SoonerBillsFan]

I couldn't watch the whole thing. How far under the cap did they say without touching Diggs or Von?

[Buffalo_Stampede]

36 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

I couldn't watch the whole thing. How far under the cap did they say without touching Diggs or Von?

I think they said as much as $50 million under but that’s touching Diggs. So without Diggs somewhere in the high $30 million. Best guess is we’ll have somewhere around $20 million.

[SoonerBillsFan]

16 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

I think they said as much as $50 million under but that’s touching Diggs. So without Diggs somewhere in the high $30 million. Best guess is we’ll have somewhere around $20 million.

20 mill is fine.  Draft well and wait until June 1st to fill in with bargain FA's. 

 

This is a year to just sit out of FA and use talent we have already drafted and get them to perform. 

[GASabresIUFan]

If the Bills are able to do everything on their list they could conceivably cut $90 mill from the cap.  
 

Some of the things they suggested, like giving Morse and Poyer pay cuts, aren’t happening.  Both might sign some kind extension to get their cap hit down but neither is agreeing to a pay cut.  They also suggested only giving pay cuts to Harty and Hines.  Sorry, but I doubt both will be back next season.  Harty is easily replaced and Hines is a huge injury risk.   I’d move on from both and save all 8.7.

 

Their other big money grab, besides Josh, was a Diggs restructure.  They argue he is going to be here another 3 years regardless because of his contract and we need to win now.  I was against it at first, but they convinced me.  Clearing 13 mill for Diggs could be the difference in re-signing Jones or a good replacement or having to go with a rookie or cheap UFA.  

PS Why do so many people think we should cut Morse?  I understand the cap savings, but last season the O line was a huge strength.  Why weaken it by dumping the anchor of the line who stayed healthy and played great? I think Beane likely agrees with me and if Morse wants to return he will.  

 

Edited February 17 by GASabresIUFan

[nedboy7]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

It’s not really about a decline. Brady likes to get the ball in playmakers hands and let them run after catch. That’s not Diggs. 
 

 

 

 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

6 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

 

 

Ok?

[Beck Water]

15 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Tre will be the trickiest decision the organization has to make this spring. You can't ignore what his leadership has meant to this team.  The ACL takes 18 full months of recovery as we saw with Von. Recovery time for a Achilles is 8 months.  The first thing McB has to do is see if Tre is mentally ready to continue.  Beyond that who knows what happens?

 

I agree Tre is one of the trickiest decisions facing the team.

 

I'm really curious where you're getting ACL takes 18 full months of recovery but Achilles is 8 months.

 

I don't think that matches data on actual RTP time

 

 

Edited February 17 by Beck Water

[Process]

15 hours ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Tre will be the trickiest decision the organization has to make this spring. You can't ignore what his leadership has meant to this team.  The ACL takes 18 full months of recovery as we saw with Von. Recovery time for a Achilles is 8 months.  The first thing McB has to do is see if Tre is mentally ready to continue.  Beyond that who knows what happens?

Love Tre but it's probably the easiest decision of the offseason 

[AlCowlingsTaxiService]

59 minutes ago, nedboy7 said:

 

 

Yeah, I think Boobie Dixon broke a 20 yarder once too … guess he was a breakaway threat … who knew?

[Green Lightning]

19 hours ago, dpberr said:

I have a difficult time understanding the why:

 

1. Resigning a 33 year old DT (come December 2024) who played in just seven games last year, is a high priority for this team. 
2. Resigning a 32 year old pass rusher who faded in the second half of the season.
3. The importance of keeping a demonstrably slower Jordan Poyer and a cornerback (White) that's had two season ending injuries in the past 3 years. 

The Bills have to get out of the business of old players, especially on defense and how much of the finite cap dollars do you want tied up in seeing what Tre White's got?.  That's the hard decision to make. 

 

 

I agree with all with the exeption of Daquon. DT's can be very productive in their 30's and Daquon is a beast. Sign him and draft a replacement. 

[Green Lightning]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

 

PS Why do so many people think we should cut Morse?  I understand the cap savings, but last season the O line was a huge strength.  Why weaken it by dumping the anchor of the line who stayed healthy and played great? I think Beane likely agrees with me and if Morse wants to return he will.  

 

Because his head is one hit away from playdough and he can't move a quality DT an inch when you need it. He gets owned with quality bull rusher.  Not worth the coin. Bates is ready for next season and we can add a C in the draft. 

[LABILLBACKER]

9 hours ago, Nephilim17 said:

1. 1-tech DTs play well into their mid 30s.
2. They said that they think AJ Epenesa may command higher dollars on the market than Floyd and we get a comp pick from AJ but none from Floyd. They're not saying Floyd is worth big bucks but suggested that for $5 or $6 million he would be a decent signing. Someone also suggested Floyd may have been playing hurt later in the season.

3. I think losing both Hyde and Poyer in one year is too much and we need a vet who knows the system. 

Yes, I agree we need to get younger. They were fairly high on Tre coming back, possibly on a reduced salary and they said achilles injuries are no longer as significant as they once were.

 

The podcast was enlightening. They convinced me that there's a chance Diggs was hurt and his playing style ages well so cutting him is not worth the hit this season or next. I could go either way on that if we sign someone in free agency and a draft a potential WR1 in the draft.

 

They said the Bills cap in a couple years would actually be in a good place so pushing dollars into the future, as bad as it sounds, isn't horrible given our future cap space.

And another notable comment from the podcast: Von's $120 million contract only had a $5 million hit the first year; so we could potentially sign someone decent and not have a big hit the first year. One guy pushed for Houston's Johnathan Greenard if he's not re-signed.

Another guy cited 4 WRs in free agency (Samuels, Bourne, maybe Ridley and a fourth guy...) and he said he thinks one of the four will miss out just because of the market on the $10 million pay day and maybe he could be available at an affordable rate.

Chin as safety was also talked about....

I'm Ok with a free agent mini splash at DE, DT and maybe safety if we keep Diggs and get a stud WR in the first. 

This podcast was amazing and time well spent.  Mooney was the other wr they mentioned and he would be the one I'd target. They're spot on regarding going after DQ first. Diggs is going nowhere nor should he. What happens to Tre will depend on how mentally ready he is to continue.  Physically I think he will be fine come September. 

[nedboy7]

1 hour ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Ok?

I probably don’t know this subject as well as you but seems like Diggs was #12 in the league in total YAC?  But definitely much lower for YAC/R.  Would his be due to all the short passes he caught this year? 

Edited February 17 by nedboy7

[LABILLBACKER]

1 hour ago, GASabresIUFan said:

If the Bills are able to do everything on their list they could conceivably cut $90 mill from the cap.  
 

Done if the things they suggested, like giving Morse and Poyer pay cuts aren’t happening.  Both might sign some kind extension to get their cap hit down but neither is agreeing to a pay cut.  They also suggested only giving pay cuts to Harty and Hines.  Sorry, but I doubt both will be back next season.  Harty is easily replaced and Hines is a huge injury risk.   I’d move on from both and save all 8.7.

 

Their other big money grab, besides Josh, was a Diggs restructure.  They argue he is going to be here another 3 years regardless because of his contract and we need to win now.  I was against it at first, but they convinced me.  Clearing 13 mill for Diggs could be the difference in re-signing Jones or a good replacement or having to go with a rookie or cheap UFA.  

PS Why do so many people think we should cut Morse?  I understand the cap savings, but last season the O line was a huge strength.  Why weaken it by dumping the anchor of the line who stayed healthy and played great? I think Beane likely agrees with me and if Morse wants to return he will.  

 

I think the easiest move to start with is to cut both Harty & Hines. It immediately saves 8.7M. It's not like punts and returns happen that often anyway.  Nor did Dorsey or Brady incorporate them into the offense to begin with. Draft a wr in the 4th or beyond who can also return. 

Edited February 17 by LABILLBACKER