Final in depth Salary Cap update by the Cover 1 crew

[billsfan_34]

1 hour ago, John from Riverside said:

I’m trying to figure out why people think Tre’Davious White wouldn’t take a pay cut

 

Two. Devastating injuries to both of his legs getting on in years.

 

He seems like a prime candidate for a paycut

I am beginning to think Tre may fall into the injury settlement category. Back to back season ending injuries with long recovery times may lead to him never playing again in the NFL. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

36 minutes ago, julian said:

Run his contract decisions by his wife ? lol my goodness 

Yes. Those decisions effect her as well. 

[John from Riverside]

9 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Yes. Those decisions effect her as well. 

I’m quite sure that these are family decisions

[Shaw66]

51 minutes ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Disagree. YOU have seen him contribute what you are calling next to nothing.

 

What the guys in the locker room have seen is a guy work hard to com back from a major injury. Finish last season being less than himself and work a hard off season to come back better to start this season...which he did. 

 

They see that same guy suffer an unfortunate injury and start to come back again. And while they understand the business just simply cutting bait on a player like Tre without giving him options to stay and compete send a very poor message. 

 

We aren't the ***** Jets.

I think you and Sooner are both correct.  The guys in the locker room see the whole thing, and different guys in the locker room will have different opinions about it.  Some will think that they want to have a career with the Bills, and they'll want younger, healthier blood to make a run with.  Others will think he's the heart and soul of the team because, well, he mentored them, or he says the feel of the defense is different with White on the field, or some other reason.   What they'll know is that it's what the Bills management wants and what Tre and his family want.  Tre and his family will work it with the Bills, one way or another, and Tre and his family will stay or will go.  All the players understand that's what happening.  And if some players are upset about Tre leaving, they'll understand and get over it because they know it's how the business works.   They've seen it before.  And if it works out, one way or another, that Tre stays, the players will be all in on it and in September they'll be ready to go to battle with Tre (even if he's a backup).  

 

And I don't see any way at all that a player in Tre's position DOESN'T talk to his wife about what to do.   These are major decisions about their life.  How much does the money matter?  Has total career earnings are $65 million.   After taxes, even if he's spent a lot, he has $20 million minimum left, possible less if he was really stupid about it, probably more like $30 million.   By almost anyone's standards, that's enough money to live more or less any way you want.  But that's just one person's perspective.   Maybe Tre wants every last nickel, maybe he doesn't.  And if his wife wants every last nickel, you know they're having some serious conversations about it.   And the other half of that question is where will we be living in six months?   Are we retiring and going home?  Retiring and staying here?   Where's home?   If we're playing but not in Buffalo, where are we going?  Are there places we don't want to go?   Tre is not just going to come home one night without ever having discussed any of that with her and say, "I've decided I'm done here.  I'm signing with the Vikings."  Maybe their discussions are very brief - "Honey, you say we have enough to live on for the rest of our lives, and I trust you with that.  And I want you to have the football career you want, so I'm ready to go wherever you want, whatever you're getting paid."   Even if that's what she said, along the way he's still giving her a chance to help decide, by telling her he thinks he likes the Vikings, and they're offering a good contract.  She may still say she trusts him and will go wherever.   But he is not just flat out deciding without her input.  Not in this day and age.  

[DapperCam]

I wouldn’t restructure Diggs. As things stand right now, it’s easy to get out of his deal next offseason. Let’s see how this upcoming season goes, before we create a multi-year cap anchor around our necks.

[Aussie Joe]

19 minutes ago, DapperCam said:

I wouldn’t restructure Diggs. As things stand right now, it’s easy to get out of his deal next offseason. Let’s see how this upcoming season goes, before we create a multi-year cap anchor around our necks.

I doubt anyone wants to restructure Diggs any further …The dilemma is that he is likely handcuffed to the team for two more years anyway… not one more… and if you don’t restructure him, then you are probably operating at $20-25m max over the cap pulling every other lever possible …

 

Is this enough to bring back DJQ,  find a cheap starting safety, edge and WR starting option if need be, fill out the other depth gaps and sign the rookies ?

 

Edited February 16 by Aussie Joe

[eball]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I looked at his list and the Athletic’s list and there are 13 guys they agree have potential cap savings, but not necessarily on what to do. Both ended up with 70 million in cap savings.  They both looked at restructuring Allen, McGovern, Knox, Milano and Bates.  They also agreed on extensions for Dawkins, Douglas and T. Johnson.  Where they disagree on how to get the cap savings was Hardy, Hines, White, Poyer and Morse.  Tompsett suggests pay cuts for all 5 players.  Hines and Hardy may take a cut, but Poyer and Morse won’t.  White may take a cut, but I doubt that as well. The Athletic suggests extensions for White and Morse using void years and non-guarantees (White) to get the cap down and a restructuring for Poyer.  Personally, I’d move on from both Hardy and Hines and save 8.7 million.  Both are easily replaced.

 

Tompsett also suggested looking at restructuring Diggs since he isn’t going anywhere for the next 3 years, releasing Martin, a pay cut for Neal and restructure for Oliver.  These moves could potentially save another 20+.  
 

Re-signing D Jones was the panels highest priority.  Others mentioned Edwards, Floyd, Ty Johnson, Epenesa (although he’s probably too expensive to re-sign) and Dane Jackson or Rapp.  
 

They also mentioned Elliott at RB and Mooney at WR.  

 

I just spent a good 30-45 seconds trying to figure out who the hell "Hardy" is...

 

[colin]

it would be nice to have dq jones back, but i suspect he's worth more in FA than he is to the bills.  AJ im almost certain of it.

 

dq didn't contribute meaningfully vs kc, and he played only a handful of games all season.  we have enough tied up in knox, milano, and von who are hurt too much, it seems a bad risk to add another, especially at that age.

 

i have a funny feeling for no real reason that there might be a trade (where a team picks up cap on diggs) with diggs for another wr (i could see SF or Dallas being a potential trade partner).  diggs for sure makes the team better, and never misses time, but that contract vs his playoff production is a bear.

 

if we get a rook wr who performs how kinkaid did his rook year, and just restock the d, i think we are a better team next year in the playoffs than we were this year, and we were pretty close.

[Beck Water]

1 hour ago, billsfan_34 said:

I am beginning to think Tre may fall into the injury settlement category. Back to back season ending injuries with long recovery times may lead to him never playing again in the NFL. 

 

This seems to represent a misunderstanding of what an injury settlement is, and how it is used.  An injury settlement is something a team reaches, usually with a young player on a 1 year contract or a multi year contract without much in the way of bonuses or guaranteed money.  Such players often have a "split" in their contract, where they're paid less per game while they're on IR.  So, if that player is on IR and unlikely to be brought back, but thinks they will be healed and ready to play before the season is over, it may be in that player's interest to get cut and try to catch on with another team.  Since the team can't, by CBA, release an injured player, the "injury settlement" is the solution.  The team and the player's rep negotiate the number of weeks the injury is expected to take to heal, the team pays the player for that number of weeks, and the player is released and is free to negotiate with other teams.
 

There's nothing in Tre White's situation that makes an injury settlement applicable.  He should be considered healed from his actual Achilles rupture and repair.  Whether that allows him to play at a pre-injury level, is a different question, but the Bills can cut him AFAIK.

 

Tre White has $10.3M in dead cap for the Bills, which represents signing, option, and restructure bonus money already paid to him.  The only circumstance I know of under which teams get any of that money back, is if a player under contract retires - and that, usually only if the player retires before he's played a significant amount after signing the contract, otherwise they file a grievance and apparently often win. 

The money is currently amortized over 2024 and 2025, the two remaining years on Tre's contract.

 

He is due $10.4M of new cash, in the form of relatively small workout and roster bonuses, a $1.5M roster bonus due early in the new league year, and $10.5M of cash - none of which is guaranteed.  When you add in his bonuses, that gives him a cap hit of $16.4 M this year.

 

The Bills can cut him.  They can also re-negotiate the cash he is due, and incentivize to allow him to re-earn it.  Tre might prefer to play for a lesser amount of money here, than to be cut and have to fight for a chance to prove he can return from the Achilles, I don't know.

 

But that won't be an injury settlement.

 

Edited February 16 by Beck Water

[LABILLBACKER]

3 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I looked at his list and the Athletic’s list and there are 13 guys they agree have potential cap savingso, but not necessarily on what to do. Both ended up with 70 million in cap savings.  They both looked at restructuring Allen, McGovern, Knox, Milano and Bates.  They also agreed on extensions for Dawkins, Douglas and T. Johnson.  Where they disagree on how to get the cap savings was Hardy, Hines, White, Poyer and Morse.  Tompsett suggests pay cuts for all 5 players.  Hines and Hardy may take a cut, but Poyer and Morse won’t.  White may take a cut, but I doubt that as well. The Athletic suggests extensions for White and Morse using void years and non-guarantees (White) to get the cap down and a restructuring for Poyer.  Personally, I’d move on from both Hardy and Hines and save 8.7 million.  Both are easily replaced.

 

Tompsett also suggested looking at restructuring Diggs since he isn’t going anywhere for the next 3 years, releasing Martin, a pay cut for Neal and restructure for Oliver.  These moves could potentially save another 20+.  
 

Re-signing D Jones was the panels highest priority.  Others mentioned Edwards, Floyd, Ty Johnson, Epenesa (although he’s probably too expensive to re-sign) and Dane Jackson or Rapp.  
 

They also mentioned Elliott at RB and Mooney at WR.  

Great listen...obviously everyone agreed DQ is top priority on a 2/15 type deal. I'd cut both Hines & Harty and try and draft a wr with return abilities. Diggs will be a Bill for a minimum of 2 more years. Maybe even 3 based on the cap hit. Like to keep Floyd but I was very concerned how his last 8 games tailed off. You can re-sign Johnson,  Jackson and Rapp cheap. Let AJE & Davis walk for the comp pick. I also agree to not ask Morse or Poyer for a paycut. These are leaders and important locker room guys who will be playing their last season. They spent alot of time on Tre and I think you roll the dice and let him play one last season. The recovery time on an Achilles is much shorter than his ACL.  Would love Mooney or Zeke on a reasonable deal.  I would also prefer Gilman over Chinn to pair with Poyer.

Edited February 16 by LABILLBACKER

[LABILLBACKER]

2 hours ago, billsfan_34 said:

I am beginning to think Tre may fall into the injury settlement category. Back to back season ending injuries with long recovery times may lead to him never playing again in the NFL. 

Tre will be the trickiest decision the organization has to make this spring. You can't ignore what his leadership has meant to this team.  The ACL takes 18 full months of recovery as we saw with Von. Recovery time for a Achilles is 8 months.  The first thing McB has to do is see if Tre is mentally ready to continue.  Beyond that who knows what happens?

[billsfan_34]

2 minutes ago, LABILLBACKER said:

Tre will be the trickiest decision the organization has to make this spring. You can't ignore what his leadership has meant to this team.  The ACL takes 18 full months of recovery as we saw with Von. Recovery time for a Achilles is 8 months.  The first thing McB has to do is see if Tre is mentally ready to continue.  Beyond that who knows what happens?

That’s right! Tre had a very difficult time playing after the knee so one has to wonder if his mind will be there to do this? Sometimes many forget how violent this sport is and a few injuries that are extremely painful with tough rehabs can change the player’s calculus. This will definitely be interesting; his leadership and understanding of the complex scheme McD runs will be difficult to replace if need be.

57 minutes ago, Beck Water said:

 

This seems to represent a misunderstanding of what an injury settlement is, and how it is used.  An injury settlement is something a team reaches, usually with a young player on a 1 year contract or a multi year contract without much in the way of bonuses or guaranteed money.  Such players often have a "split" in their contract, where they're paid less per game while they're on IR.  So, if that player is on IR and unlikely to be brought back, but thinks they will be healed and ready to play before the season is over, it may be in that player's interest to get cut and try to catch on with another team.  Since the team can't, by CBA, release an injured player, the "injury settlement" is the solution.  The team and the player's rep negotiate the number of weeks the injury is expected to take to heal, the team pays the player for that number of weeks, and the player is released and is free to negotiate with other teams.
 

There's nothing in Tre White's situation that makes an injury settlement applicable.  He should be considered healed from his actual Achilles rupture and repair.  Whether that allows him to play at a pre-injury level, is a different question, but the Bills can cut him AFAIK.

 

Tre White has $10.3M in dead cap for the Bills, which represents signing, option, and restructure bonus money already paid to him.  The only circumstance I know of under which teams get any of that money back, is if a player under contract retires - and that, usually only if the player retires before he's played a significant amount after signing the contract, otherwise they file a grievance and apparently often win. 

The money is currently amortized over 2024 and 2025, the two remaining years on Tre's contract.

 

He is due $10.4M of new cash, in the form of relatively small workout and roster bonuses, a $1.5M roster bonus due early in the new league year, and $10.5M of cash - none of which is guaranteed.  When you add in his bonuses, that gives him a cap hit of $16.4 M this year.

 

The Bills can cut him.  They can also re-negotiate the cash he is due, and incentivize to allow him to re-earn it.  Tre might prefer to play for a lesser amount of money here, than to be cut and have to fight for a chance to prove he can return from the Achilles, I don't know.

 

But that won't be an injury settlement.

 

That is a really great explanation. I will be the first to admit I am not a numbers guy or dig deep into the weeds of contracts. Thank you for the thorough post to this. Perhaps a better stance would be that it may be unlikely that he plays but I guess we all will find out soon enough. I enjoyed reading your response- thank you 😊 

[NoHuddleKelly12]

3 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

I would like to have Daquan Jones back but I think he probably signs with the Chicago Bears right away in free agency.  

 

I was told by a reliable source that he packed up his entire household in Buffalo after the season and moved everything to Nashville............he could have waited on that if he thought he might have to stay in Buffalo.       

 

 

As much as I liked him when he was on the field, it was 2 seasons in a row of missing valuable snaps from injury, and we need to get younger at the position anyway, so I’m good with the Bills trying someone else out there. But no doubt he was very valuable when he was starting. 

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

6 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I’m trying to figure out why people think Tre’Davious White wouldn’t take a pay cut

 

Two. Devastating injuries to both of his legs getting on in years.

 

He seems like a prime candidate for a paycut

 

Because until he can pass a physical he can't be cut.  So come March 11th or whatever the exact day is, all his bonuses kick in and the Bills are on the hook for that, but they also can't cut him as I stated unless he can a pass a physical which is not likely.  So why would White agree to a pay cut unless he's somehow rewarded? 

 

The Bills can cut him later on, but by then they would have had to have cut a couple other players to get under the cap in March.  And for White he then got the money from the Bills in March and can then sign later on with another team.

 

So put all these things together, I'd say White can dictate terms pretty well.

[John from Riverside]

2 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

Because until he can pass a physical he can't be cut.  So come March 11th or whatever the exact day is, all his bonuses kick in and the Bills are on the hook for that, but they also can't cut him as I stated unless he can a pass a physical which is not likely.  So why would White agree to a pay cut unless he's somehow rewarded? 

 

The Bills can cut him later on, but by then they would have had to have cut a couple other players to get under the cap in March.  And for White he then got the money from the Bills in March and can then sign later on with another team.

 

So put all these things together, I'd say White can dictate terms pretty well.

This is why the injury buyout option is there

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

4 hours ago, billsfan_34 said:

I am beginning to think Tre may fall into the injury settlement category. Back to back season ending injuries with long recovery times may lead to him never playing again in the NFL. 

 

1 minute ago, John from Riverside said:

This is why the injury buyout option is there

 

Never happen.  Players typically take injury settlements when they were placed on IR, but have now fully recovered and can then get money from the team giving them the settlement, and then basically double dip and sign with another team.  In White's case there is effectively no IR list in the off season and he wouldn't be ready to play right now anyway.  For those reasons, can't see the injury settlement coming into play here unless he's still not ready to go in Sept, but was healthy by say November and won't happen till then either.

Edited February 17 by Ed_Formerly_of_Roch

[John from Riverside]

2 minutes ago, Ed_Formerly_of_Roch said:

 

 

Never happen.  Players typically take injury settlements when they were placed on IR, but have now fully recovered and can then get money from the team giving them the settlement, and then basically double dip and sign with another team.  In White's case there is effectively no IR list in the off season and he wouldn't be ready to play right now anyway.  For those reasons, can't see the injury settlement coming into play here unless he's still not ready to go in Sept, but was healthy by say November and won't happen till then either.

I think this is going to depend on how well it heals up. It’s not like I’m rooting against the guy.
 

But it is concerning two major injuries

[Ed_Formerly_of_Roch]

9 minutes ago, John from Riverside said:

I think this is going to depend on how well it heals up. It’s not like I’m rooting against the guy.
 

But it is concerning two major injuries

 

Agree, I'd cut him if I could.

 

But he has to pass a physical by March 11th, then the Bills have leverage and can cut him or convince him it's in his best interest to take a big cut.  But if he can't pass then no reason for White to do anything, but sit back and collect the money the Bills are required to pay him.

[TheyCallMeAndy]

8 hours ago, John from Riverside said:

I’m trying to figure out why people think Tre’Davious White wouldn’t take a pay cut

 

Two. Devastating injuries to both of his legs getting on in years.

 

He seems like a prime candidate for a paycut

Definitely, I don’t think the team wants to cut him. I think they’ll request a payout and experiment with him replacing Hyde this year. 

Edited February 17 by TheyCallMeAndy

[Beck Water]

6 hours ago, billsfan_34 said:

That’s right! Tre had a very difficult time playing after the knee so one has to wonder if his mind will be there to do this? Sometimes many forget how violent this sport is and a few injuries that are extremely painful with tough rehabs can change the player’s calculus. This will definitely be interesting; his leadership and understanding of the complex scheme McD runs will be difficult to replace if need be.

 

Your last sentence is an interesting point.  I go back and forth on this.  On the one hand, in 2021 after Tre was injured, we won 4 games with Levi Wallace and Dane Jackson playing CB and the two we lost (the wind tunnel NE game and the OT loss to Tampa) were arguably more gaps in run D than coverage.  One could make an argument that McD's defense has been able to plug-n-play CBs and not miss a beat (Dane Jackson, Christian Benford, etc). 

Some people have said that we run a very CB friendly scheme.

 

But then I have to ask whether having a 2020/early 2021 level Tre White would have made a difference in the 13 second game or in this year's playoff loss to KC where we were starting a hampered Rasul Douglas and Dane Jackson at CB.  L'Jairus Sneed has become a true shutdown corner and McDuffie is also high grade and that clearly made a difference in all KC's playoff games this season and the Championship.  So clearly at some point and against the best teams, the quality of the DBs does make a difference.

 

To your first point: after an Achilles tear, it's not Tre's mind I'm so worried about.  It's objectively a hard injury to return from.  One study says 57% RTP, with a decrease in performance noted especially for defensive players.  That was 2010 to 2016, so medicine and rehab do improve all the time and hopefully it's better now.  Apparently there are all sorts of objective metrics that decrease (the downward force the athlete can exert to jump or plant or change direction for example.

 

6 hours ago, billsfan_34 said:

That is a really great explanation. I will be the first to admit I am not a numbers guy or dig deep into the weeds of contracts. Thank you for the thorough post to this. Perhaps a better stance would be that it may be unlikely that he plays but I guess we all will find out soon enough. I enjoyed reading your response- thank you 😊 

 

Thanks for the kind words, I'm glad you found it useful.

 

It would not shock me if the Bills cut Tre because they assess him as not being able to return at a high level.  It would not shock me if they kept him, either.

I think there's a significant chance of either, and only the people working with Tre on his rehab really know.