Bills official offseason Cap moves thread.

[Process]

On 2/16/2024 at 7:13 AM, GunnerBill said:

Okay overall here is my Salary Cap plan for 2024. Starting with an assumption of $242m cap and the Bills being currently circa $51m over the cap.

 

Restructures:

Basic restructures (turning salary into amortised bonus):

Josh Allen - saving $18m

Dawson Knox - saving $2.8m

Connor McGovern - saving $2.4m

Matt Milano - saving $2.1m

Ed Oliver - saving $1.2m

Ryan Bates - saving $1.1m

 

Restructure with VOID years:

Jordan Poyer - saving $2m

 

Total Saving: $29.6m 

Estimated cap space: -$27m

 

Pay Cuts:

Tre White - saving $6m

Nyheim Hines - saving $2.5m

 

Total Saving: $8.5m

Estimated cap space: -$18.5m 

 

Extensions:

Dion Dawkins - saving $6.5m (on the basis of a 2 year extension worth $37m - $18.5m AAV - added to the $10.3m base salary + roster bonuses he was due for this year so a total of $47.3m to spread over 3 years allowing you to lower the cap hit in year 1 - comparator contract Jake Matthews)

Rasul Douglas - saving $5m (on the basis of a 2 year extension worth $22m - $11m AAV - added to the $9m base salary + roster bonuses he was due for this year so a total of $31m to spread over 3 years allowing you to lower the cap hit in year 1 - comparator contract Darious Williams)

Taron Johnson - saving $6m (on the basis of a 4 year extension worth $50m - $12.5m AAV - added to the $7.6m base salary + roster bonuses he was due for this year so a total of $57.6m to spread over 5 years allowing you to lower the cap hit in year 1 - comparator contract Cam Sutton)

 

Total Saving: $17.5m 

Estimated cap space: -$1.5m

 

Cuts:

Mitch Morse - saving of $8.5m

Von Miller - saving of $6.7m (not realised until June 1st)

Deonte Harty - saving of $4.2m

Siran Neal - saving of $3m

 

Total Saving: $22.4m

Estimated cap space: $20.9m (made up of $14.2m + an additional $6.7m from June 1)

 

 

And you would have 49 players under contract of whom about 38 are realistic players for the 53. They have 10 draft picks and need circa $10.6m to sign their draftees. 

 

Conclusion:

it's tight. And When you consider they probably need a vet or two at DL and Safety..... it gets very tight. The other "easy" button to press is the restructure on Stef's contract. That saves you another $13m.... but it means the cost of moving on from him after 2024 (which is very much the play I think) costs you $35m in dead cap rather than the $22m in dead cap it is currently slated to cost. The other big saving option is just cut Rasul straight up. That is a $9m saving, no dead money, but having spent a 3rd round pick on him and with the Tre health question that would be brave and I don't expect them to go there. In terms of the decisions I've made above that would be most controversial given opinions here:

 

Cutting Von - impact of keeping him is you have 50 players under contract but only $14.2m total in cap space.

Keeping and restructuring Jordan Poyer - impact of cutting him outright is you save an additional $3.4m but the only safety on your roster is Damar Hamlin. 

Keeping and cutting the pay of Tre - impact of cutting him is neutral on 2024 cap compared to the pay cut. Both save $6m. You could do him as a post June 1 cut and then it opens up $10m in 2024 space but you lose $6m on your pre-June cap space (so you wouldn't even have enough to sign all your draftees before 1 June). 

 

Now there will be some other things they can do with VOID years like I am suggesting with Jordan to just eek another million or so out here and there on some of the extensions and get that saving up closer to $25m rather than $17.5m but every time you do that you are kicking the future can that bit harder. Losing the ability to potentially press the Stef reset button makes everything else harder. It does make me lean towards try and get DaQuan Jones back on a one year deal but with a couple of void years to spread the hit out and then probably let every other FA you have walk. Maybe one or two come back on vet minimum $1.2m type deals later, but there is not a lot of scope. They are going to have to accept being younger and thinner on the backend of the roster in 2024 and just hope their luck turns in terms of injuries and their starters can stay relatively healthy. 

 

 

 

I don't think Elam will be on the roster in 2024. I think they'll try and trade him. 

A little worrisome that doing all that only gets us to +20M.

 

I was against cutting Morse but based on this I guess we have too. 

 

Confident in Bates stepping in?

 

Edited February 18 by Process

[John from Riverside]

Beane we’ll figure it out

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

On 2/16/2024 at 10:54 AM, GunnerBill said:

 

Tre is slated to count $16m against the cap in 2024. But he has no new guaranteed money so if the Bills cut him he doesn't get another penny (though we still have to account for the $10m in dead bonus money already paid). If the Bills were to offer him some new guaranteed money (I've suggested about $8m) in exchange for a big paycut on the unguaranteed salary he is due I would think it would be attractive to him. If it isn't fine, he can go. He'd be "playing" for about $8m in new money but only half of that would be accounted for in 2024, with the rest spread across 2025 and possibly a void year or two. He'd then count about $10m against the 2024 cap - the $6m that already counts against the cap from previously paid bonus money, plus $4m of the new money. Which is the same as he counts against the cap if we cut him because as well as the $6m already paid this year a cut (without a post 1 June designation) escalates the other $4m of already paid bonus to the 2024 cap. 

That's misleading. He won't have any *new* money guaranteed. But was paid is on the books so the only leverage the Bills have is that they have a greater sunk cost

[Warriorspikes51]

The cap will keep going up from the new TV deals and league profit

[Don Otreply]

On 2/16/2024 at 4:41 AM, 14774 said:

So, we've got 4 pages of absolutely nothing but opinions and speculation. Sounds OFFICIAL to me.

Well we are located in rumor and supposition central, so…, yeah its official.

[John from Riverside]

The obvious big shoe that needs to fall is restructuring Josh Allen’s contract

[EmotionallyUnstable]

I always chuckle a bit when I see ppl freaking about the cap situation. Just as a reminder Beane has built this team, and was entirely aware how his moves would financially impact the future of the team. There is no doubt some difficult decisions are to be made. However, I’ll give BBB the benefit of the doubt that they’ve previously played through numerous scenarios years prior at which point these circumstances would come to fruition and how they’ll handle them. 
 

 

9 hours ago, Process said:

A little worrisome that doing all that only gets us to +20M.

 

I was against cutting Morse but based on this I guess we have too. 

 

Confident in Bates stepping in?

 

Doubt they’d do this, but would they ask Morse to take a pay cut? Maybe he wants one last shot at a ring so instead of making pennies from being released he’ll come back at a reduced deal benefiting both parties. Idk if that’d sit right with the folks at OBD and in the locker room but I imagine it might be worth exploring before riding ourselves of him completely.

Edited February 19 by EmotionallyUnstable

[Aussie Joe]

On 2/17/2024 at 4:15 AM, SoonerBillsFan said:

I'm kind of shocked we haven't heard anything yet, with FA 3.5 weeks away. The Combine is on the 26th, and I think things heat up that week with moves, cuts, restructures...maybe trades.

It’s now a week past the SB …still nothing 

 

We need some real news … there is only so long one can be interested in discussing whether Thomas can last  to 28 , or whether JA and Milano are the only superstars on the team…

 

Cmon Beane - give us a cut , or a restructure… A trade would be yuge ( coming or going) ..

[SoonerBillsFan]

2 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

It’s now a week past the SB …still nothing 

 

We need some real news … there is only so long one can be interested in discussing whether Thomas can last  to 28 , or whether JA and Milano are the only superstars on the team…

 

Cmon Beane - give us a cut , or a restructure… A trade would be yuge ( coming or going) ..

Dang straight!  

Hey...maybe he's asleep?

[BarleyNY]

On 2/16/2024 at 11:58 AM, noacls said:

Doesn't Tre have to pass a physical before he were to get cut? Would injury settlement be only way?

That’s the general rule, but Tre has a roster bonus due. If the Bills decline to pay him that roster bonus, then he immediately becomes a FA. Whether or not he can pass a physical does not matter. 

[Doc Brown]

On 2/18/2024 at 8:04 PM, EmotionallyUnstable said:

I always chuckle a bit when I see ppl freaking about the cap situation. Just as a reminder Beane has built this team, and was entirely aware how his moves would financially impact the future of the team. There is no doubt some difficult decisions are to be made. However, I’ll give BBB the benefit of the doubt that they’ve previously played through numerous scenarios years prior at which point these circumstances would come to fruition and how they’ll handle them. 
 

 

Doubt they’d do this, but would they ask Morse to take a pay cut? Maybe he wants one last shot at a ring so instead of making pennies from being released he’ll come back at a reduced deal benefiting both parties. Idk if that’d sit right with the folks at OBD and in the locker room but I imagine it might be worth exploring before riding ourselves of him completely.

All true but the Covid year threw every team for a loop when structuring contracts into the future.  I’ll always wonder what moves Beane would’ve made if the cap went up as expected that year as we still had Allen in his rookie contract window.  McCaffrey, Ertz, Beckham, Hopkins?  Would we have a Super Bowl ring?  Frustrating to think about.

[Success]

Beane shocked me last year.  I had no expectations that we could possibly sign anyone, then he just found a way.  I know a lot of that was pushing money out to the future, but it still felt like a bit of a magic trick.

 

Hoping for the same this year.  I hope he goes bold, and instead of just restructuring a bunch of guys, works some trades and makes a few cuts.  It would be cool to get younger, and start moving away from contracts that aren't in the best interest of the team.

 

Easier said than done.  My knowledge of how to manage an NFL cap wouldn't fill a thimble.

 

[BuffaloRebound]

Will be interesting to see what happens with Von.  There’s no way McBeane can pay  him the $6m+ that becomes guaranteed on march 18th.  First ballot hall of famers I assume don’t want the stigma of being cap casualties.  Could see the $6m+ converted to not-likely-to-be-earned incentives considering he barely played any snaps last year which would save the Bills $6m against the cap and Von still gets the $6m if he plays more snaps than last year.  

Edited February 20 by BuffaloRebound

[Warriorspikes51]

1 hour ago, BuffaloRebound said:

Will be interesting to see what happens with Von.  There’s no way McBeane can pay  him the $6m+ that becomes guaranteed on march 18th.  First ballot hall of famers I assume don’t want the stigma of being cap casualties.  Could see the $6m+ converted to not-likely-to-be-earned incentives considering he barely played any snaps last year which would save the Bills $6m against the cap and Von still gets the $6m if he plays more snaps than last year.  

would be amazing for this team if Von played like Bruce & Reggie did in their mid 30’s. Those were the years they had their best seasons.  Who knows how much he has left after the injury. Here’s to hoping he gets his confidence back & stays out of trouble off the field

Edited February 20 by Warriorspikes51

[Warriorspikes51]

Never thought I’d say this, but if we can only afford to keep 1 of Floyd and Epenesa: I’m keeping AJ.  He was a difference maker and seemingly every QB hit came at a critical moment. He also batted a lot of passes. Perhaps he can be a 10-12 sack guy with an increased % share.  My guess at EDGE would be: 

 

Von 

Rousseau

AJ

Kingsley 

_________ Rookie

[Aussie Joe]

Thank God … or thank Beane?

[SoonerBillsFan]

On 2/18/2024 at 4:04 PM, Warriorspikes51 said:

The cap will keep going up from the new TV deals and league profit

That is what Beane thought, but it appears the cap didn't go up this offseason as much as expected.

6 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Thank God … or thank Beane?

God worked through Beane. That said, he could just be thankful for his family and life. OR Beane has unofficially reached an extension for him we will hear about it soon.  I hope its all of that. 

[EasternOHBillsFan]

9 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

The waiting is killing me, Smalls... this will be the biggest pre-draft news by far if he extends in Buffalo.

 

[ngbills]

37 minutes ago, EasternOHBillsFan said:

 

The waiting is killing me, Smalls... this will be the biggest pre-draft news by far if he extends in Buffalo.

 

Hopefully a 3 year extension pushing money out a few years. Anything longer and I don’t like paying 33 year old corners $10+ million. 

[Matt_In_NH]

Anyone talking about a new deal for Josh?  He is way underpaid at this point. Mahomes gets his deal redone fairly often.....I expect something for Josh at some point.