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Posted
2 hours ago, Matt_In_NH said:

 

I would argue there is hardly a receiver issue which I know will get big reactions.  Diggs Shakir and Kincaid are a pretty good set of three pass catchers with two still developing.  A rookie and vet are likely.  The holes on defense are much larger, they have 1DT but they need at lease 4, They have 2 DE's (3 if you count Jonathan) but need at least 4.  Hyde has to be replaced.   Possibly some other holes could be made if they have any cap casualties.

I agree about all of this.  My only quibble is that they need a decent sized #2 with decent speed, good hands, good route running, good blocking.  They might actually come back to Davis, if his price doesn't get too high.  I know people will react strongly to that, but I'm not sure the Bills are done with him.   Personally, I think he's not as mobile, as shifty, as the Bills need.  In any case, I think the need at #2 is manageable.  Of course, if a can't miss receiver falls to the Bills in the first round, I wouldn't be disappointed.   A guy who can be the #2 and the replacement for Diggs at #1 when the time comes.   Timing of that fits right.  

 

But it's the defense that needs more immediate help, as you point out.  A defensive rookie who can a starting job in training camp would be ideal.   I think about the impact Bernard made this past season.  I know he wasn't a rookie, but he came out of nowhere, solidified the defense, and made plays.  Imagine a defensive lineman who did that - a real playmaker.  

 

I haven't studied the draft - either the players available or the Bills' situation, but I've heard here that the Bills have plenty of picks, and they're in line for a comp pick (or two?  I don't know).  Maybe there's a trade where they pick up another.  Assuming the Bills have a good stockpile of picks, it would not surprise me to see Beane trade up to get that playmaker.  Again, it might be a wideout who can be the successor to Diggs, but I think the Bills would get the most impact from a defensive guy - a stud defender who starts as a rookie and anchors the defense for the next ten years.  

 

Soon enough, we'll be in discussions about BPA vs need.  Beane always has been clear that the first couple of rounds are for BPA, and in the later rounds he's more BPA-at-a-position-of-need.   But he fudges that rule almost every year, it seems, by trading up when he sees a BPA who meets a need.  I expect we'll see the trade up this year, and for the Bills that pick will be critical.  

Posted
On 2/14/2024 at 12:48 PM, Mark Vader said:

Sounds like Aiyuk values himself more than he's really worth. Is he that good?


Agreed. He is not. I would be worried about going near any of those SF skill guys (Aiyuk, Deebo) who are a product of their very specific scheme. 

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Posted
52 minutes ago, Shaw66 said:

I agree about all of this.  My only quibble is that they need a decent sized #2 with decent speed, good hands, good route running, good blocking.  They might actually come back to Davis, if his price doesn't get too high.  I know people will react strongly to that, but I'm not sure the Bills are done with him.   Personally, I think he's not as mobile, as shifty, as the Bills need.  In any case, I think the need at #2 is manageable.  Of course, if a can't miss receiver falls to the Bills in the first round, I wouldn't be disappointed.   A guy who can be the #2 and the replacement for Diggs at #1 when the time comes.   Timing of that fits right.  

 

But it's the defense that needs more immediate help, as you point out.  A defensive rookie who can a starting job in training camp would be ideal.   I think about the impact Bernard made this past season.  I know he wasn't a rookie, but he came out of nowhere, solidified the defense, and made plays.  Imagine a defensive lineman who did that - a real playmaker.  

 

I haven't studied the draft - either the players available or the Bills' situation, but I've heard here that the Bills have plenty of picks, and they're in line for a comp pick (or two?  I don't know).  Maybe there's a trade where they pick up another.  Assuming the Bills have a good stockpile of picks, it would not surprise me to see Beane trade up to get that playmaker.  Again, it might be a wideout who can be the successor to Diggs, but I think the Bills would get the most impact from a defensive guy - a stud defender who starts as a rookie and anchors the defense for the next ten years.  

 

Soon enough, we'll be in discussions about BPA vs need.  Beane always has been clear that the first couple of rounds are for BPA, and in the later rounds he's more BPA-at-a-position-of-need.   But he fudges that rule almost every year, it seems, by trading up when he sees a BPA who meets a need.  I expect we'll see the trade up this year, and for the Bills that pick will be critical.  

To the bolded, that is the rookie and/or vet I mentioned.  Even though I said what I said, I am good with a first round rookie WR if it is the right guy and they don't give up other significant draft capital to get it.  I think there is value to be found in the second round also at that position, that has been proven in recent years and this is supposed to be deep at WR so I would not panic if it does not happen in the first round.   Where I differ with most is we need "several new weapons" and the perception Josh is not provided with weapons.   The team has spent a lot of resources at WR, TE and RB.   I hear a lot on WGR that they just need more and more weapons and that s the way to beat the Chiefs....well that is not how the Chiefs beat you!

 

I think we have seen what Davis is and can be.  I like him, he is a pro and has gotten a lot out of his physical gifts.  However, his physical gifts are limited yet easily acceptable on a rookie 4th round deal.  He is elite at blocking which most fans don't care about, coaches and GM's do.  Signing him to a big or moderate contract I think is a mistake given the Bills cap situation and his limitations.  

 

On the BPA vs need thing, I think Beane has gotten players he wants at positions of need by moving around the board.  He does not just stand pat and take BPA, when he sees value at hs need position he goes and gets it.   Not super clear that is the best approach but that is how I see what Beane has done.  Later round picks don't make the roster because the roster is so deep.  I would rather them not sign a vet or two and allow for the 6's and 7's to make it if they are able.  We see a lot of those picks on other 53's.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Matt_In_NH said:

To the bolded, that is the rookie and/or vet I mentioned.  Even though I said what I said, I am good with a first round rookie WR if it is the right guy and they don't give up other significant draft capital to get it.  I think there is value to be found in the second round also at that position, that has been proven in recent years and this is supposed to be deep at WR so I would not panic if it does not happen in the first round.   Where I differ with most is we need "several new weapons" and the perception Josh is not provided with weapons.   The team has spent a lot of resources at WR, TE and RB.   I hear a lot on WGR that they just need more and more weapons and that s the way to beat the Chiefs....well that is not how the Chiefs beat you!

 

I think we have seen what Davis is and can be.  I like him, he is a pro and has gotten a lot out of his physical gifts.  However, his physical gifts are limited yet easily acceptable on a rookie 4th round deal.  He is elite at blocking which most fans don't care about, coaches and GM's do.  Signing him to a big or moderate contract I think is a mistake given the Bills cap situation and his limitations.  

 

On the BPA vs need thing, I think Beane has gotten players he wants at positions of need by moving around the board.  He does not just stand pat and take BPA, when he sees value at hs need position he goes and gets it.   Not super clear that is the best approach but that is how I see what Beane has done.  Later round picks don't make the roster because the roster is so deep.  I would rather them not sign a vet or two and allow for the 6's and 7's to make it if they are able.  We see a lot of those picks on other 53's.

I agree with all of this.  Good stuff. 

 

Particularly, I'm with you on the "several new weapons."   I think it's much more on Joe Brady and Josh's continued growth as a field general.  The oline is good enough (although I wouldn't be surprised to see a new face there in 2024), and Cook-Diggs-Kincaid-Shakir-Knox plus whomever are good enough for a good coordinator to have an effective, multi-faceted offense.  Plus, if Hines comes back, he's another dimension.  The Bills simply do not need anything resembling an overhaul of their offensive skill position players.  The only serious question for me is whether Diggs will be sound, physically and emotionally, in 2024.   Something happened late in 2023, and I don't know that anyone outside the organization knows what it is/was.   Assuming he's back at 100%, the man on the spot is Brady.    I have high expectations for Brady (but I had high expectations for Dorsey, and we know how that went). 

Posted

NFL Wire has jumped on the Aiyuk to Buffalo bandwagon:

 

Brandon Aiyuk to the Buffalo Bills

(Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)

 

Buffalo Bills receive: WR Brandon Aiyuk

San Francisco 49ers receive: 2024 first-round pick, 2025 fifth-round pick

 

 

The Bills should sprint to the phone and see what it would take to acquire the star receiver from the 49ers. Gabe Davis is a free agent, and if we’re being honest, one the Bills should not pay. His run blocking was his biggest asset, and he had seven games where he caught one or zero passes.

The Bills need a real weapon at receiver, and Aiyuk would step in and be the top guy in their offense. Stefon Diggs showed signs that he was losing a step down the stretch, as he went through his own slump. After having five 100 yard games in the first six weeks of the season, Diggs didn’t have another such performance for the rest of the year, and had six games with four or fewer catches and seven games of fewer than 50 yards receiving.

Acquiring Aiyuk to be the top target in the offense, while Diggs still gets respectable looks as the No. 2 guy would be great for the Bills. They’d still have work to do, but this would be a big feather in their cap.

Posted
23 minutes ago, Special K said:

NFL Wire has jumped on the Aiyuk to Buffalo bandwagon:

 

Brandon Aiyuk to the Buffalo Bills

(Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)

 

Buffalo Bills receive: WR Brandon Aiyuk

San Francisco 49ers receive: 2024 first-round pick, 2025 fifth-round pick

 

 

The Bills should sprint to the phone and see what it would take to acquire the star receiver from the 49ers. Gabe Davis is a free agent, and if we’re being honest, one the Bills should not pay. His run blocking was his biggest asset, and he had seven games where he caught one or zero passes.

The Bills need a real weapon at receiver, and Aiyuk would step in and be the top guy in their offense. Stefon Diggs showed signs that he was losing a step down the stretch, as he went through his own slump. After having five 100 yard games in the first six weeks of the season, Diggs didn’t have another such performance for the rest of the year, and had six games with four or fewer catches and seven games of fewer than 50 yards receiving.

Acquiring Aiyuk to be the top target in the offense, while Diggs still gets respectable looks as the No. 2 guy would be great for the Bills. They’d still have work to do, but this would be a big feather in their cap.

I get the appeal, but again, you have to pay him AND Diggs big.  The Bills have to get a rookie deal to balance the cap. 40+M/yr on two WRs and a 40M QB doesn’t work.

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Posted (edited)
24 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I get the appeal, but again, you have to pay him AND Diggs big.  The Bills have to get a rookie deal to balance the cap. 40+M/yr on two WRs and a 40M QB doesn’t work.

 

I’m sure Beane could use his cap wizardry to structure an Aiyuk extension to have a lower cap hit until Diggs contract comes off the books.....it is entirely possible that Diggs may be here for only one more season.

 

I would think drafting a WR in the first round instead is the smart move cap-wise, but there is no guarantee that pick would pan out.(Remind me.....has late first round pick Kair Elam become a lockdown CB yet??) A guy like Aiyuk has already established himself as the real deal, IMO.

Edited by Special K
Posted
27 minutes ago, DCofNC said:

I get the appeal, but again, you have to pay him AND Diggs big.  The Bills have to get a rookie deal to balance the cap. 40+M/yr on two WRs and a 40M QB doesn’t work.


Yeah. His asking price firmly puts us out of the equation with Diggs’. Can’t pay both of them. 


Couple that with giving away a 1st or multiple day 2 picks? No thanks. 

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Posted
4 minutes ago, Special K said:

 

I’m sure Beane could use his cap wizardry to structure an Aiyuk extension to have a lower cap hit until Diggs contract comes off the books.....it is entirely possible that Diggs may be here for only one more season.

 

I would think drafting a WR in the first round instead is the smart move cap-wise, but there is no guarantee that pick would pan out.(Remind me.....has late first round pick Kair Elam become a lockdown CB yet??) A guy like Aiyuk has already established himself as the real deal, IMO.


To play Devils Advocate, would you rather have Justin Jefferson or Diggs?  Jefferson has been remarkably cheaper and better.  That was the trade to get the “sure thing”.   There’s risk in everything, but to get another good, not great, WR you have to pay top of the market money to is not smart.  This is not Tyreek Hill, this is not a guy who you can say translates well, no matter what system he’s in, this is not a guy that’s been an unquestioned #1.  This guy is a huge risk too.

Posted
4 minutes ago, DCofNC said:


To play Devils Advocate, would you rather have Justin Jefferson or Diggs?  Jefferson has been remarkably cheaper and better.  That was the trade to get the “sure thing”.   There’s risk in everything, but to get another good, not great, WR you have to pay top of the market money to is not smart.  This is not Tyreek Hill, this is not a guy who you can say translates well, no matter what system he’s in, this is not a guy that’s been an unquestioned #1.  This guy is a huge risk too.

 

Like I said, drafting a WR is the smart move cap-wise.....let’s just hope they draft a Justin Jefferson and not a Kair Elam!!

Posted
28 minutes ago, Special K said:

 

I’m sure Beane could use his cap wizardry to structure an Aiyuk extension to have a lower cap hit until Diggs contract comes off the books.....it is entirely possible that Diggs may be here for only one more season.

 

I would think drafting a WR in the first round instead is the smart move cap-wise, but there is no guarantee that pick would pan out.(Remind me.....has late first round pick Kair Elam become a lockdown CB yet??) A guy like Aiyuk has already established himself as the real deal, IMO.

The team is $50 million over the cap.  There’s no way a team in that position should give up picks for the right to take on a huge contract.  Beane should be fired on the spot if he even entertained the idea.

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Posted
7 minutes ago, Billl said:

The team is $50 million over the cap.  There’s no way a team in that position should give up picks for the right to take on a huge contract.  Beane should be fired on the spot if he even entertained the idea.

 

From what I read, after contract restructures from Allen and others, plus contract extensions for Dawkins, Douglas and Taron, the Bills will be 20-30 million under the cap....we shall see.

Posted
2 minutes ago, Special K said:

 

From what I read, after contract restructures from Allen and others, plus contract extensions for Dawkins, Douglas and Taron, the Bills will be 20-30 million under the cap....we shall see.

Re-structures just kick the can down the road, in order to get better, you have to re-set at some point or you end up in the same place.  

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Posted
1 hour ago, Special K said:

NFL Wire has jumped on the Aiyuk to Buffalo bandwagon:

 

Brandon Aiyuk to the Buffalo Bills

(Gary A. Vasquez-USA TODAY Sports)

 

Buffalo Bills receive: WR Brandon Aiyuk

San Francisco 49ers receive: 2024 first-round pick, 2025 fifth-round pick

 

 

The Bills should sprint to the phone and see what it would take to acquire the star receiver from the 49ers. Gabe Davis is a free agent, and if we’re being honest, one the Bills should not pay. His run blocking was his biggest asset, and he had seven games where he caught one or zero passes.

The Bills need a real weapon at receiver, and Aiyuk would step in and be the top guy in their offense. Stefon Diggs showed signs that he was losing a step down the stretch, as he went through his own slump. After having five 100 yard games in the first six weeks of the season, Diggs didn’t have another such performance for the rest of the year, and had six games with four or fewer catches and seven games of fewer than 50 yards receiving.

Acquiring Aiyuk to be the top target in the offense, while Diggs still gets respectable looks as the No. 2 guy would be great for the Bills. They’d still have work to do, but this would be a big feather in their cap.


I’m not really into the idea. But there’s no way I’d give this years 1st. Would have to be next years

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