So Spencer Brown what say you?

[thenorthremembers]

I think its likely they re-sign him.   Better sooner than later because if he has a good season and doesnt miss time his APY could be north of 14 million dollars a year. 

[GreggTX]

He's an ok run blocker and a poor pass protector. I hope we prioritize the RT when his rookie contract expires. We would be better off to move on. We can do much better.

[Buffalo_Stampede]

4 hours ago, GreggTX said:

He's an ok run blocker and a poor pass protector. I hope we prioritize the RT when his rookie contract expires. We would be better off to move on. We can do much better.

He’s getting a long-term contract soon. He’s a core player. He’s developing very well.

12 hours ago, thenorthremembers said:

I think its likely they re-sign him.   Better sooner than later because if he has a good season and doesnt miss time his APY could be north of 14 million dollars a year. 

I think it’s going to be in the $18 million range. 

[JohnNord]

On 2/13/2024 at 12:06 PM, John from Riverside said:

We were ready to run him out on a rail, but then his name stopped getting called which is a good thing for an offensive lineman

 

Did we find our right tackle?

I know Buffalo loves him.  But he seems like the type of young, athletic player that will be in line for a massive deal and I’m unsure if Buffalo is going to want to match it.   Almost like a Tremaine Edmunds situation.  
 

An interesting name to watch could be Ryan VanDenmark - another athletic RT that has been brought along slowly in Kroger’s system.    He could potentially be a low cost starter with upside.  
 

 

[BarleyNY]

19 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

He’s getting a long-term contract soon. He’s a core player. He’s developing very well.

I think it’s going to be in the $18 million range. 

 

$18M would be a horrible overpay IMO. Brown has developed into a starting caliber RT. We lived through the developmental years so it would be nice to get the productive years too now that he’s dependable. But at reasonable cost. OTC has his 2023 valuation at $10.17M. I don’t think he signs here for that, but I’m more in the $12M-$13M AAV ballpark. Even $15M seems rich unless guaranteed money is light. 

[Buffalo_Stampede]

7 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

$18M would be a horrible overpay IMO. Brown has developed into a starting caliber RT. We lived through the developmental years so it would be nice to get the productive years too now that he’s dependable. But at reasonable cost. OTC has his 2023 valuation at $10.17M. I don’t think he signs here for that, but I’m more in the $12M-$13M AAV ballpark. Even $15M seems rich unless guaranteed money is light. 

Extensions have to take into account where the league cap is going. Also an 18 game season.

His floor will be $15 million. I think it’s more likely he’ll get closer to $18 million. 
 

What will really matter is the guaranteed money. I’m not sure what that will look like. He’s had some injuries so the Bills might want a lower guarantee number.

Edited July 23 by Buffalo_Stampede

[Slippery Rubber Mats]

24 minutes ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

 

What will really matter is the guaranteed money. I’m not sure what that will look like. He’s had some injuries so the Bills might want a lower guarantee number.

 

Totally agree. Brown will get a high dollar, low guarantee contract from the Bills. 

[BarleyNY]

5 hours ago, Buffalo_Stampede said:

Extensions have to take into account where the league cap is going. Also an 18 game season.

His floor will be $15 million. I think it’s more likely he’ll get closer to $18 million. 
 

What will really matter is the guaranteed money. I’m not sure what that will look like. He’s had some injuries so the Bills might want a lower guarantee number.

The league will modify all contracts if they go to 18 games. They did so when it went from 16 to 17. So no need to account for that. 

 

To get Brown’s updated value for 2024 we can take OTC’s valuation of $10.17M for 2023 and add 13.6% (the cap increase). That’s approximately $11.5M. The average yearly cap increase is about 8% if you want to account for that. That’s about $12.4M in 2025, $13.4M in 2026, $14.5M in 2027 and $15.6M in 2028. IMO that is probably pretty close to his actual value. 

 

But I think you are correct about what he’ll get. Quality OTs don’t hit the market very often and they get paid when they do. The choice is really between him at $15M+ a season and going the journeyman route and/or drafting a replacement. I can stomach the $15M AAV if the guarantees aren’t too bad. But if he gets anywhere near the $18M AAV mark, then I’m letting him walk. I think the Bills probably pay him though. They’ve cut back on OL spending overall and are only really paying Dawkins now. Possibly that is in preparation for Brown’s contract extension.