Chiefs are just better than the Bills

[SaulGoodman]

25 minutes ago, Success said:

 

That's quite a narrative.

 

Reid is considered the best coach in the NFL right now.  That is pretty much consensus.  People are starting to talk about him as potential GOAT.

 

You’re proving my point for me. People would have laughed in your face if you suggested Reid was better than Belichick 5 years ago. And he was a mile away from the GOAT conversation. He was fired by Philly for God’s sake, and took a lot of heat from Chiefs fans early on. Reid was 11-13 in the playoffs before Mahomes. 15-3 with Mahomes. 

 

25 minutes ago, Success said:

McDermott?  Not so much right now.  I've heard countless opposing fans & pundits say that he's holding Allen back.  I'm not ready to give up on him personally, but there is no question the JA era Bills have underachieved, and much of that falls to coaching.  

 

So, yeah - the difference in perspective is kind of funny.

 

Well, of course people are going to put a lot of the blame on the losing coach. Just like Reid dealt with for 20 years. Media narratives aren’t always fair. 
 

If the Bills make a few more plays in the 13 seconds game and this year, the narrative about McD is completely different. 

 

25 minutes ago, Success said:

 

EDIT:  I'd also add that literally no one credits McDermott w/ Allen's development. He's a defensive coach.  Daboll is credited w/ making Allen as good as he is.  That's a fairly consensus opinion also.

 

 

I’m not saying that McD personally deserves a lot of credit for developing Allen. I meant the staff in general. 
 

The bottom line is that Allen’s had good coaching, and the defensive coaching has been very good as well. All those injuries you guys talked about and yet they still finished, what…4th in total defense?

[Success]

26 minutes ago, SaulGoodman said:

You’re proving my point for me. People would have laughed in your face if you suggested Reid was better than Belichick 5 years ago. And he was a mile away from the GOAT conversation. He was fired by Philly for God’s sake, and took a lot of heat from Chiefs fans early on. Reid was 11-13 in the playoffs before Mahomes. 15-3 with Mahomes. 

 

Well, of course people are going to put a lot of the blame on the losing coach. Just like Reid dealt with for 20 years. Media narratives aren’t always fair. 
 

If the Bills make a few more plays in the 13 seconds game and this year, the narrative about McD is completely different. 

I’m not saying that McD personally deserves a lot of credit for developing Allen. I meant the staff in general. 
 

The bottom line is that Allen’s had good coaching, and the defensive coaching has been very good as well. All those injuries you guys talked about and yet they still finished, what…4th in total defense?

 

Not really sure what you're looking for, but everyone here thinks Mahomes is great, and most think he has also benefitted from a HOF coach.  It's pretty simple.

 

If anything, you're here trying to diminish Allen by saying things like he wouldn't have done much w/ this year's Chiefs team.  I mean, that's a big dropoff between Mahomes & Allen.  One guy wins a SB w/ them, and one guy wouldn't do much w/ them.

 

You think Mahomes would have won a SB w/ this year's Bills team?  Kinda doubt it, myself.

 

Edited February 22 by Success

[SaulGoodman]

21 minutes ago, Success said:

 

Not really sure what you're looking for, but everyone here thinks Mahomes is great, and has also benefitted from a HOF coach.  It's pretty simple.

 

If anything, you're here trying to diminish Allen by saying things like he wouldn't have done much w/ this year's Chiefs team.  I mean, that's a big dropoff between Mahomes & Allen.  One guy wins a SB w/ them, and one guy wouldn't do much w/ them.

 

You think Mahomes would have won a SB w/ this year's Bills team?  Kinda doubt it, myself.

 

Do I think Mahomes would have won if he were quarterbacking the Bills in that game and playing at home? Yeah. I don’t think that would be a controversial or crazy take anywhere else. 

[Dopey]

1 hour ago, Success said:

 

That's quite a narrative.

 

Reid is considered the best coach in the NFL right now.  That is pretty much consensus.  People are starting to talk about him as potential GOAT.

 

McDermott?  Not so much right now.  I've heard countless opposing fans & pundits say that he's holding Allen back.  I'm not ready to give up on him personally, but there is no question the JA era Bills have underachieved, and much of that falls to coaching.  

 

So, yeah - the difference in perspective is kind of funny.

 

EDIT:  I'd also add that literally no one credits McDermott w/ Allen's development. He's a defensive coach.  Daboll is credited w/ making Allen as good as he is.  That's a fairly consensus opinion also.

 

 

Yeah, it is quite the narrative. And @SaulGoodman is correct. 
Consider it only took Reid 21 years to win his first sb. 
In their first seven years as HC, McD has been to the playoffs 6x vs 5x for Reid. Hell his last 8 seasons in Philly resulted in 4 of those seasons NOT making the playoffs at all. It took him 7 years in KC to win his first SB. If not for Mahomes, Reid was the same coach as he was in Philly. A good coach who couldn’t get over the hump. IN 20 YEARS OF TRYING. Like McDermott, Reid was not a Hall of Fame caliber coach in his first 7 seasons . But Reid also showed for another 13 seasons that he wasn’t a hall of fame coach. If not for Mahomes, Reid wouldn’t have been KC’s head coach much longer. 
 

33 minutes ago, Success said:

 

Not really sure what you're looking for, but everyone here thinks Mahomes is great, and most think he has also benefitted from a HOF coach.  It's pretty simple.

 

If anything, you're here trying to diminish Allen by saying things like he wouldn't have done much w/ this year's Chiefs team.  I mean, that's a big dropoff between Mahomes & Allen.  One guy wins a SB w/ them, and one guy wouldn't do much w/ them.

 

You think Mahomes would have won a SB w/ this year's Bills team?  Kinda doubt it, myself.

 

I think even Josh would say yes. 

[90sBills]

4 minutes ago, Dopey said:

Yeah, it is quite the narrative. And @SaulGoodman is correct. 
Consider it only took Reid 21 years to win his first sb. 
In their first seven years as HC, McD has been to the playoffs 6x vs 5x for Reid. Hell his last 8 seasons in Philly resulted in 4 of those seasons NOT making the playoffs at all. It took him 7 years in KC to win his first SB. If not for Mahomes, Reid was the same coach as he was in Philly. A good coach who couldn’t get over the hump. IN 20 YEARS OF TRYING. Like McDermott, Reid was not a Hall of Fame caliber coach in his first 7 seasons . But Reid also showed for another 13 seasons that he wasn’t a hall of fame coach. If not for Mahomes, Reid wouldn’t have been KC’s head coach much longer. 
 

I think even Josh would say yes. 

I remember the media would be incessant about Reid’s clock management in big games. It’s funny how that whole narrative has disappeared since Mahomes.
 

No matter how brilliant a coach is he’d still need the right players to execute his visions. Players (especially QBs) will always be more important than the coach. It’s already proven with Brady and Belichick. 

[Success]

9 hours ago, 90sBills said:

I remember the media would be incessant about Reid’s clock management in big games. It’s funny how that whole narrative has disappeared since Mahomes.
 

No matter how brilliant a coach is he’d still need the right players to execute his visions. Players (especially QBs) will always be more important than the coach. It’s already proven with Brady and Belichick. 

 

Reid is a great coach.  Just like Brady/Belichick, the success of that team comes down to both.

 

It's an advantage the Chiefs have over the Bills.  I like McDermott, but he's not really in the same league as Reid.

 

[TheFunPolice]

Just now, Success said:

 

Reid is a great coach.  Just like Brady/Belichick, the success of that team comes down to both.

 

It's an advantage the Chiefs have over the Bills.  I like McDermott, but he's not really in the same league as Reid.

 

 

Nobody is. Reid is the GOAT. Unless BBQ and nuggies undo him, he'll surpass Schula for all-time wins, Belichick for all-time post season wins, and likely tie Belichick in SB wins. 

 

So not being as good as Reid is nothing to be ashamed of. But that doesn't mean you can't beat him, which we eventually will. 

[mjt328]

On 2/20/2024 at 5:44 PM, beebe said:

And yet despite this, the Bills closed as 2.5-point favorites and the over/under for the game was bet lower, closing at 45.5 and 46 everywhere. If losing a LB and a replacement level backup was significant and meant as much as people here suggest, we would have seen money come in on the Chiefs or we would have seen money come in on the over or we would have seen Travis Kelce over catches/yards get bet way over. We didn't see any of these things. The global betting market, which accommodates enormous six-figure limits at most sportsbooks, kept the Bills as 2.5-point favorites; and the prop market, which is lower limits but still very sharp overall, barely budged on Kelce's game projections. 

 

The Bills defense, who had as many regulars missing as the Chiefs did (KC entered without starting safety Cook and starting DT Nnadi, then lost safety Edwards and LB Gay early) were tasked with stopping a Chiefs offense that consisted of:

• Patrick Mahomes
• Travis Kelce
• Isaiah Pacheco
• Two HORRIBLY graded tackles (Smith, Taylor)
• A very strong interior OL (All-Pro LG Thuney exited 3rd quarter with injury) 
• WR's consisting of: Rashee Rice, Justin Watson (0 catches), MVS (2 catches), Hardman (1 catch, 1 backbreaking fumble), Richie James (0 catches). Three of KC's receivers from this horrid group missed with injury (Skyy Moore, Justyn Ross, Kadarius Toney) as did their best pass-catching back (Jerick McKinnon.) 

Again, if you can't stop this offense, not sure what to say.

 

Umm.  The Chiefs won the Super Bowl.

You can downplay them all you want, but the Ravens and 49ers failed to stop them too.

 

Betting lines should not be taken as gospel, or an accurate representation of anything on the football field.

The goal of Vegas is to get away with as much of the public's money as possible.  Period.

 

[beebe]

55 minutes ago, mjt328 said:

 

Umm.  The Chiefs won the Super Bowl.

You can downplay them all you want, but the Ravens and 49ers failed to stop them too.

 

Betting lines should not be taken as gospel, or an accurate representation of anything on the football field.

The goal of Vegas is to get away with as much of the public's money as possible.  Period.

 

 

It's a market that consists of pro bettors and public bettors. NFL playoff games command the highest limits of any sports betting market in the world other than the World Cup and the Super Bowl. It is the single best predictor of game outcomes that we have available to us. It is why, if you blindly picked the favorite to win every game, every year, that you would get roughly 70% of your picks correct.

 

As a 2.5-point favorite, the Bills had an implied probability of 56-57% chance of winning. 

 

Going back to 1985, there have been 653 NFL games with exactly a 2.5-point closing spread. The favorite in those games won 370 times and lost 283 times (56.7). 

 

If you feel betting lines have minimal predictive value, then I'd like to offer you a $100 bet every NFL game going forward with exactly a 2.5-point spread. I'll take the favored team to win straight up, you take the underdog to win straight up. We'll see who has more money in the end. 

[jkeerie]

The Chiefs have won 3 SBs.  I think it needs to be remembered though, that two of those SBs were against the same team...the 49ers...coached by Shanahan who has a penchant for poor coaching in the SB.  Mahomes is great, Jones is great, Reid is great, Spags is great.  You cannot downplay the collective quality of just those four.  However...it was Shanahan and the 49ers.  So...there you go.