Bills chasm between Regular Season Success and Playoff Failure-Are there Football Strategy Problems?

[BADOLBILZ]

6 hours ago, Einstein said:

 

This is who he was in the Chiefs playoff game.

 

He was taking the underneath passes most of the game and took his shots when the defense gave him an opportunity.

 

He was 2020 Josh.

 

.

 

Yeah he's raised his passing game in the last two Chiefs playoff games.........the problem is that he hasn't been consistent enough to make his team the best team in the AFC in the regular season in any of the 3 seasons since he broke out in 2020.   

 

I know people will point to the Chiefs winning the SB from the #3 seed this year but they've been the #1 seed 4 of the last 6 seasons and reached the SB the last 3 times they had that #1 seed.

 

The regular season matters.........especially when you are trying to break thru for the first time.  

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

6 hours ago, Chaos said:

We lost to the Texans in the playoffs.  We made Deshaun Watson look so good, the stupid Browns paid him  a bazillion dollars. 

 

Meh. That was 2019 Allen. Or in other words, 50% of today's Josh Allen. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

Spagnuolo is definitely a key to their success. Cheifs D just held the 49ers to 19 points in regulation and 22 total. Packers and Lions D's gave up 24 and 34 respectively. 

 

The Lions offense scored more than enough points to beat the 49ers but failed because they couldn't score more than 34 points. Which of course is an absurd bar. Bills for once need to be able to hold one of these final 8 teams 24 or less points. 

[Kirby Jackson]

18 hours ago, Kirby Jackson said:

I believe that there may be. In the regular season they worry about execution and can be a little more cautious because they generally have more talent. Over the course of the year, that will lead to a good record.
 

In the playoffs you need to score more. It isn’t about keeping games close. Surround Josh Allen with weapons and try to score 35+. You’ll only need a few stops then. You can’t play in the playoffs to win 20-17. You negate the advantage of Josh Allen when you do that. KC has figured that out over the last 6 years. Forget about “ball control” or “time of possession” or “balance” or “field position” in the playoffs!! Put the ball in Josh Allen’s hands and get out of the way. Pedal to the floor

The Super Bowl kind of played out like this. It certainly did in OT. Regardless of the poor decision to take the ball, they HAD to go for 7. You CANNOT hand the ball back to Mahomes and hope that he doesn’t get whatever points that he needs. If you get stopped, so be it. You lose on the inevitable FG. Once they kicked the FG the game was over. 

[Big Turk]

8 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

Like the Bills right?

 

Annoying year … third seed Chiefs rested their players Week 18 whilst the Billa are battling to get in to the playoffs… 

 

And injuries sustained in that game were a big reason they ultimately lost to the Chiefs.

[ganesh]

On 2/11/2024 at 5:45 PM, Chaos said:

I am hopeful this thread avoids discussions of specific coaching or players.  

Here are some facts that are not in dispute:
 

1. The Bills have had more regular season success than virtually any other NFL team in the last 5 years.
2. The Bills have not translated the regular season succes into deep playoff runs

 

Here is a commonly held opinions:

1. Playoff football is different than regular season football.  (I am personally on the fence on whether or not this is true)

 

For purposes of this thread discussion I would like to stipulate that Playoff Football IS different than regular season football.  Here is the question:

 

Are their any significant football strategic changes that could be made, that would result in playing better "Playoff Football"? If so what are those changes?
 

Alternatively, its fine to respond "flawed premise, the gap between playoff success and regular season success is because the Bills are less talented, or unluckier than the teams that win the Super Bowl"

 

 

someone posted it earlier...

The Bills have beaten an aging Rivers and a bunch of nobody's in the playoffs and have lost to  Mahomes, Burrow and Watson.    That definitely appears to be missing strategy.  Teams in the playoffs (post the Wild Card) are evenly matched and the game swings based on a few plays here and there.  The ones with the stronger mental strength are the ones that forge ahead.

[zow2]

The Bills need a defense to complement the Allen playoff offense.   Yes, the word complementary is prominent.  They also need a reliable kicker.  The offense should be efficient but like KC, doesn't need to take crazy risky chances until it's absolutely necessary.  They don't need to be the greatest show on turf.  Unfortunately our defense chokes in crunch time and/or the injury bug hits us.  Somehow the Bills D needs to be playoff ready because they will see Mahomes, Burrow and Lamar for the next few years if we are fortunate enough to keep making the tournament.

[FireChans]

9 hours ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

Yeah he's raised his passing game in the last two Chiefs playoff games.........the problem is that he hasn't been consistent enough to make his team the best team in the AFC in the regular season in any of the 3 seasons since he broke out in 2020.   

 

I know people will point to the Chiefs winning the SB from the #3 seed this year but they've been the #1 seed 4 of the last 6 seasons and reached the SB the last 3 times they had that #1 seed.

 

The regular season matters.........especially when you are trying to break thru for the first time.  

Part of being the 1 seed is favorable brackets.

 

the top 3 SB potential QB’s in the conference are Allen, Mahomes and Burrow in no particular order. Whoever has avoided playing BOTH the other 2 QB’s has made the Super Bowl. 
 

Mahomes played Allen and Burrow back to back. Lost to Burrow. 
 

Burrow has played Allen and Mahomes back to back. Lost to Mahomes.

 

it’s going to be a slog if we can’t get fat and happy on the Jags or whoever waiting for the other elite AFC teams to kill each other.

[zow2]

7 minutes ago, FireChans said:

Part of being the 1 seed is favorable brackets.

 

the top 3 SB potential QB’s in the conference are Allen, Mahomes and Burrow in no particular order. Whoever has avoided playing BOTH the other 2 QB’s has made the Super Bowl. 
 

Mahomes played Allen and Burrow back to back. Lost to Burrow. 
 

Burrow has played Allen and Mahomes back to back. Lost to Mahomes.

 

it’s going to be a slog if we can’t get fat and happy on the Jags or whoever waiting for the other elite AFC teams to kill each other.

 

KC just beat Miami (no biggie),,,and at Josh Allen, at Lamar and vs what was billed as the best and most talented team in the NFL for much of the season.   Winning playoff games back to back in Buffalo and Baltimore is extremely hard to do.  KC as a 3 seed really earned this one.

[FireChans]

Just now, zow2 said:

 

KC just beat Miami (no biggie),,,and at Josh Allen, at Lamar and vs what was billed as the best and most talented team in the NFL for much of the season.   Winning playoff games back to back in Buffalo and Baltimore is extremely hard to do.  KC as a 3 seed really earned this one.

They did for sure.

 

im saying the path for the Bills to win one is to not have to go through such a gauntlet. 

[since79]

9 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Spagnuolo is definitely a key to their success. Cheifs D just held the 49ers to 19 points in regulation and 22 total. Packers and Lions D's gave up 24 and 34 respectively. 

 

The Lions offense scored more than enough points to beat the 49ers but failed because they couldn't score more than 34 points. Which of course is an absurd bar. Bills for once need to be able to hold one of these final 8 teams 24 or less points. 

Spags D is the type you need to play to be successful in the playoffs.  KC does not have to change their identity in the playoffs.  Tight man, physical secondary and strong in the trenches.  Plays with 5 D-line. Puts best players on the field for the whole game.  They don't tire because they have been asked to play that way the whole season.

Our soft zones, bend but don't break and D line rotation require too many people to execute well.  Our team has to go out of character to be successful in the playoffs on D.  They can't do it because they are conditioned all season to play a certain way.  I would rather lose a regular season game because of D line fatigue or a man getting beat tryin to play tight coverage than continue to lose in the playoffs because that drive where you rested your best D line in the rotation is the one you gave up the score on.  

 

[Big Turk]

1 hour ago, zow2 said:

The Bills need a defense to complement the Allen playoff offense.   Yes, the word complementary is prominent.  They also need a reliable kicker.  The offense should be efficient but like KC, doesn't need to take crazy risky chances until it's absolutely necessary.  They don't need to be the greatest show on turf.  Unfortunately our defense chokes in crunch time and/or the injury bug hits us.  Somehow the Bills D needs to be playoff ready because they will see Mahomes, Burrow and Lamar for the next few years if we are fortunate enough to keep making the tournament.

 

The Bills need the opposite of what they have on D.  They need a D that performs OK during the regular season and turns it up at key times in the playoffs rather than pulling a "Lamar" in the playoffs.

[BADOLBILZ]

1 hour ago, zow2 said:

 

KC just beat Miami (no biggie),,,and at Josh Allen, at Lamar and vs what was billed as the best and most talented team in the NFL for much of the season.   Winning playoff games back to back in Buffalo and Baltimore is extremely hard to do.  KC as a 3 seed really earned this one.

 

 

They definitely earned it but @FireChans is correct in noting that Mahomes/Allen/Burrow are in a different class of playoff QB than Lamar and Purdy.    Not to detract from the 49ers effort because they played their assiz of.........but they ran into a pretty flat KC team and STILL lost.   Having seen the 49ers get whipped at home by both Cinci and Baltimore this season I think that the AFC side had the most talented team.   

[hondo in seattle]

On 2/11/2024 at 4:15 AM, Chaos said:

I am hopeful this thread avoids discussions of specific coaching or players.  

Here are some facts that are not in dispute:
 

1. The Bills have had more regular season success than virtually any other NFL team in the last 5 years.
2. The Bills have not translated the regular season succes into deep playoff runs

 

Here is a commonly held opinions:

1. Playoff football is different than regular season football.  (I am personally on the fence on whether or not this is true)

 

For purposes of this thread discussion I would like to stipulate that Playoff Football IS different than regular season football.  Here is the question:

 

Are their any significant football strategic changes that could be made, that would result in playing better "Playoff Football"? If so what are those changes?
 

Alternatively, its fine to respond "flawed premise, the gap between playoff success and regular season success is because the Bills are less talented, or unluckier than the teams that win the Super Bowl"

 

 

 

Generally speaking, I'm of the opinion that playoff football is exactly the same as regular season football.  Same rules.  Same players.  Same objectives.

 

I do believe, however, that some coaches, Andy Reid for example, save some things for the playoffs.  For instance, I believe Reid sometimes runs plays or shows tendencies during the season so that he can surprisingly do something contrary in the playoffs.  I think Reid is very conscious and intentional about what he's putting on tape for future opponents to see.  

 

However, I think players and coaches who try to coach/play differently in the playoffs usually shoot themselves in the foot.  You have a routine that's worked for you in the regular season.  You've already done your best to optimize that routine.  So just continue to follow it.  Gameplan the same way.  Practice the same way.  Eat and sleep the same way.  I think most coaches think like this.  

 

I don't think Reid is a better playoff coach than Shanahan - or McDermott.  I think he's just a better coach who's built a better coaching staff.  

 

The Bills' mediocre playoff record is predicated on these things... The talent of our coaches has been roughly average compared to other playoff teams.  The talent of our players has been roughly average compared to other playoff teams.  Our injury situation has tended to be worse than average.  

 

And let's not forget that earning first-round byes means the Bills will get no weak opponents.  

 

 

 

[Chaos]

21 hours ago, FireChans said:

The Ravens are far more disappointing in the playoffs, not sure where you got your “most disappointing” stat.

Aside from winning a championship, they are a failure because they didn’t win championships?

 

it’s time to start defining words here.

If your team sucks and doesn't make the playoffs , you can't disappoint in the playoffs.  Name one team with a more disappointing playoff record than the Bills the last five years. 

[FireChans]

16 minutes ago, Chaos said:

If your team sucks and doesn't make the playoffs , you can't disappoint in the playoffs.  Name one team with a more disappointing playoff record than the Bills the last five years. 

I already did. The Ravens.

[Wayne Arnold]

On 2/11/2024 at 10:19 AM, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

The Bills will never get to the Super Bowl if they are giving up 27+ points in every single divisional/conference championship game. It's too much to ask of the offense in consecutive weeks against the top four teams in the conference. 

 

I really think McDermott acknowledges that this has been an issue and promoting a young coach in Babich to DC and replacing the entire defensive coaching staff (along with some roster turnover) will hopefully spark something that has been missing on defense these last four seasons.

[Mat68]

They have lost for every reason.  21 in KC it was a Jimmy and Joes loss not X and O.  13 secs was 100% coaching.  Last year vs Cincy was a bit of Jimmy and Joes and little real life hitting football.  This season vs the Chiefs it was a Jimmy and Joes loss.  Defense was down too many guys and late no body made a play. 

[Chaos]

1 hour ago, FireChans said:

I already did. The Ravens.

just not true true.  Bills were far bigger favorites going into the season every year for the last five years than the Ravens. 

[FireChans]

13 minutes ago, Chaos said:

just not true true.  Bills were far bigger favorites going into the season every year for the last five years than the Ravens. 

More disappointing playoff record in the last five years, blind reveal.

 

2-4

 

5-5

 

Are you able to figure out what team is worse than the other and which team is which?