Off-Season Hot Take: Mid Season Struggles And The #1 Seed

[NastyNateSoldiers]

8 hours ago, Bills!Win! said:

We’ve known that the Bills have had one of the most talented rosters and have had good depth since 2020. We have also seen that they can hang with KC. They’ve really only been blown out by them once in the 7 games they’ve played.
 

I’m thinking that the reason the bills can’t get past the chiefs (and bengals) is because Buffalo keeps finding themselves in a mid season slump. They then have to spend the next several weeks retooling their offense and getting out of the slump, meanwhile battling for playoff positioning and the division against tough teams. By the time they get to the playoffs they’re already burnt out from fighting up hill battles. 

 
in 2020 they were the #1 seed most of the season and lost to the Chiefs, titans and the hail Murray game right in the middle of the season and finished as the 2nd seed.

 

In 2021 we had inexcusable losses to the titans, jags and the colts and had to battle our way to the 3rd seed

 

in 2022 we had the loss to the jets and the Minnesota debacle and then had fight our way to the 2nd seed again 

 

in 2023 we started off great. Had some injuries. Then played dumbed down football against teams like the patriots and broncos. Then had to go through murderers row to end the season as the 2nd seed once again. 
 

The bills need to take care of business in the mid part of the season and get the 1 seed. We all know McDermott is great coming off the bye and the rest would benefit the Bills mentally and physically. 
 

It’ll happen boys. Stay patient. Trust the process! 

I think the Bills are missing key difference makers . Can u honestly say we have a Jones or Kelce or Chase & Hendrickson? Yes we have the QB but are missing the other components. That's what's making the difference in the playoffs other then Mcd blowing games. 

[H2o]

We need to upgrade the WR group to where they can't just focus on taking away Diggs and leave Josh with only check down options. Kincaid had a really good season for a rookie, but Josh needs more. They also need to use Kincaid better, similar to the Pittsburgh Playoff game. The defense was killed by injuries. I truly believe if we have a healthy Bernard, Benford, and Douglas (yes, I know he still played) then the game against the Chiefs plays out different. We're also faced with multiple dilemmas on defense heading into the off-season. We have one DT under contract. What are we gonna do at Safety? What is the plan with Edge defenders? How will the loss of Butler affect the Secondary as a whole? We need better depth pieces. If God smiles down upon us injury wise, I like our chances no matter if we're the #1 or not. 

[Mr. WEO]

8 hours ago, Bills!Win! said:

the next 3 games we were rolling teams. We probably would’ve beaten jacksonville to go 4-1 if it were in buffalo. 

 

Jacksonville stinks.  Bills should be able to handle those bums anywhere.

[SoCal Deek]

Or maybe, and this is just spit balling, maybe they should try not to choke in the playoffs next year. 

[K D]

1 hour ago, Chaos said:

There is some truth in this.  But there is a bigger problem with the premise of this thread.  The concept that you can only get to the Super Bowl if you are the #1 seed is truly not a sustainable strategy.  Certainly the strategy the Chiefs relied on this year. 

Yes the Chiefs proved you definitely don't need the #1 seed. But you would need 4 great Josh games in a row to win the Superbowl. He likely has never had 4 good games in a row in his entire life. We need a new gameplan that doesn't rely so much on Josh being amazing every game.

[NewEra]

Our problem is that we don’t get the #1 seed?  🙄 

.  

[SoonerBillsFan]

11 hours ago, Warcodered said:

I honestly kind of feel like ***** it keep smashing against the wall and eventually it will break, or I guess we will, but hell what's the alternative.

What is the definition of insanity?  That is what the Bills do, it's how Reid had Sean's number, he hasn't changed his Defense or approach since Philly.

 

Sean should step aside and just HC.  Let Babich run his own defense,and Beane get him the pieces to do it.

 

I love the fact Dabols offense will finally be flushed this offseason.  We need a new approach. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

12 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Lots of worrying about the 1 seed. It didn’t help the Ravens much. The Bills got KC in Orchard Park for the playoffs and still lost. San Francisco made it as the 1 seed, but they were on the ropes  at 24-7 vs the Lions. The Bills don’t need to have a perfect regular season to make the Super Bowl. They don’t need some magic formula. They just need a bit of good luck with injuries and to be better than their opponents on the day they play them in the postseason. They haven’t done it thus far, and that’s about it. 

Disagree. A this point we all want to get back to conference title game. I mean you can’t make a Super Bowl if you can’t even get to the contrite game. Having the one seed gives a team a huge advantage in that. 
 

The Bills have been consistently great for four straight seasons now. But they don’t have a single 1 seed to show for it and the Chiefs only had the 1 seed in two out of those four seasons. 
 

As long as the Bills continue to finish 2nd or 3rd in the conference they will continue to face the 2nd or 3rd best team in the divisional round rather than getting say a Jags or Texans team. I certainly like our chances against the Jags or Texans compared to the Bengals and Chiefs. 

[Charles Romes]

The last 3 years we’ve had $20M—$50M of the defense literally not playing or essentially not playing in the playoffs.  Super Bowl champions generally do not have this amount of the roster not playing.  

[Boatdrinks]

11 hours ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

It’s simple math honestly. You play one less game to get into the tournament. Definitely a better situation than what we’ve been in plus they would be home 

Sure, but guess what ? It’s not changing back. The fact is only one team gets the bye. That’s a tough ask, and it obviously doesn’t mean the 1 seed will make the Super Bowl every year. Yes, this is the first year KC has reached the bowl without it - it’s also the only year they didn’t have it. The Bengals got there without it. They had a great chance to do it again with a late drive last season. The Ravens had it twice and lost both times. The # 1 seed would be a nice benefit , but it’s not a necessity. A perfect regular season simply isn’t required to reach the already difficult goal of a Super Bowl. 

4 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

I think the Bills are missing key difference makers . Can u honestly say we have a Jones or Kelce or Chase & Hendrickson? Yes we have the QB but are missing the other components. That's what's making the difference in the playoffs other then Mcd blowing games. 

This take is closest to the truth. The playoff games are usually close, and a few plays here and there are often the difference. The Bills have a pretty solid D and run a good system. They don’t have a lot of stars that make game changing plays vs top competition. They can’t afford to have their best players sidelined with injuries and haven’t been lucky in this regard. They need some better players on defense and probably another top WR. 

[Boatdrinks]

1 hour ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

Disagree. A this point we all want to get back to conference title game. I mean you can’t make a Super Bowl if you can’t even get to the contrite game. Having the one seed gives a team a huge advantage in that. 
 

The Bills have been consistently great for four straight seasons now. But they don’t have a single 1 seed to show for it and the Chiefs only had the 1 seed in two out of those four seasons. 
 

As long as the Bills continue to finish 2nd or 3rd in the conference they will continue to face the 2nd or 3rd best team in the divisional round rather than getting say a Jags or Texans team. I certainly like our chances against the Jags or Texans compared to the Bengals and Chiefs. 

Have to beat who’s in front of you. Eventually you’ll have to play the Chiefs anyway, even if you’re the 1 seed Ravens. There’s no magic ticket, and the 1 seed is practically unattainable in the AFC with the Chiefs in the AFC West. They’ve got an easy path every year. Hated the rule change with only 1 bye like everyone else, but good luck hoping for a 1 seed AND a Super Bowl berth. It could happen, but probably would take a major injury on the KC side for it to happen. 

[ControllerOfPlanetX]

Josh just cannot get hurt, otherwise we’re f*****.

 

[The Firebaugh Kid]

2 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Sure, but guess what ? It’s not changing back. The fact is only one team gets the bye. That’s a tough ask, and it obviously doesn’t mean the 1 seed will make the Super Bowl every year. Yes, this is the first year KC has reached the bowl without it - it’s also the only year they didn’t have it. The Bengals got there without it. They had a great chance to do it again with a late drive last season. The Ravens had it twice and lost both times. The # 1 seed would be a nice benefit , but it’s not a necessity. A perfect regular season simply isn’t required to reach the already difficult goal of a Super Bowl. 

This take is closest to the truth. The playoff games are usually close, and a few plays here and there are often the difference. The Bills have a pretty solid D and run a good system. They don’t have a lot of stars that make game changing plays vs top competition. They can’t afford to have their best players sidelined with injuries and haven’t been lucky in this regard. They need some better players on defense and probably another top WR. 

Agreed its no guarantee. You still have to beat KC/Cin. We need to nail this draft and get real creative with the cap the have a shot. 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

2 hours ago, Boatdrinks said:

Have to beat who’s in front of you. Eventually you’ll have to play the Chiefs anyway, even if you’re the 1 seed Ravens. There’s no magic ticket, and the 1 seed is practically unattainable in the AFC with the Chiefs in the AFC West. They’ve got an easy path every year. Hated the rule change with only 1 bye like everyone else, but good luck hoping for a 1 seed AND a Super Bowl berth. It could happen, but probably would take a major injury on the KC side for it to happen. 

it’s not unattainable though. Chiefs have only gotten it twice in the last four years. Bills should have gotten it at least once in the last four years but failed with some mid season struggles. 
 

[Mango]

This post is backwards. The 1 seed (or lack there of) isn't why we haven't been to the SB. It is that we just have not been good enough consistently. 

If we were we would have won one by now and we would have done it from any seed. 

[Goin Breakdown]

Good breakdown. Shows some perspective. I just can't "trust the process" anymore. It's like when someone has to tell you they're an honest person. It's just words said to buy you time until youve been figured out. 

[DrBob806]

1 hour ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

Agreed its no guarantee. You still have to beat KC/Cin. We need to nail this draft and get real creative with the cap the have a shot. 

...and Houston, Cleveland, Pittsburgh, Baltimore, etc.

 

All the teams will be looking to improve, including the Bills. Odds are that a top team or two (KC, Buffalo maybe) will slip a bit, and a couple teams step it up a bit more. 

[mjt328]

I keep saying this... but there isn't a magic bullet that will suddenly break the Bills through the playoff wall.

 

In the NFL, there just isn't a huge gap between the top and bottom teams.  Each year, there are a handful of top contenders who are on roughly the same level.  Once we reach the Divisional/Championship Rounds, those teams start playing each other and knocking each other out.  Sometimes it comes down to which team is healthiest.  Sometimes one team is hot and the other team is in a slump.  Sometimes the game is close and comes down to a couple lucky bounces.

 

Back in 2020, the Bills were really an inexperienced fringe Super Bowl contender and the Chiefs were the class of the NFL.  They would have needed everything to work their way to pull-off the upset in the Championship Game, but it just didn't happen.  Since that point (three years in a row now), we've lost key defensive players that have hurt us badly against elite QBs in the playoffs.  2021 was Tre White on Thanksgiving.  2022 was Micah Hyde early and Von Miller on Thanksgiving.  This year was Matt Milano early, and then Terrell Bernard, Christian Benford and a huge chunk of the secondary at the end.

 

The Bills have been the NFL's second-best regular season team over the last four years (only topped by the Chiefs).  In that same time period, we have seen the Buccaneers and Rams win a Super Bowl.  We have seen the Bengals, Eagles and 49ers make the Super Bowl.  Those are the only six teams in the league who can argue at having more success than us.

 

I'm as frustrated as anybody.  Hopefully the Bills can continue to put themselves in position, and (at least) one of these years the mathematical odds will work in our favor.  

 

[The Jokeman]

To me we have to avoid injuries to vital players. 

 

2020 Star Lotulelei, EJ Gaines, Zack Moss.

 

2021 Tre White.

 

2022 Von Miller and Micah Hyde.

 

2023 Von Miller, Matt Milano, Terrell Bernard, Tre White Christian Benford.

 

 

Edited February 11 by The Jokeman

[Aussie Joe]

4 minutes ago, The Jokeman said:

To me we have to avoid injuries to vital players. 

 

2020 Star Lotulelei, EJ Gaines, Zack Moss.

 

2021 Tre White.

 

2022 Von Miller and Micah Hyde.

 

2023 Von Miller, Matt Milano, Terrell Bernard, Tre White Christian Benford.

 

 

Star Lotulelei “vital player “… that’s a stretch … although he was paid like one