Allen, the Super Bowl "window," and the KC hurdle

[Doc Brown]

13 minutes ago, Billl said:

Remember when Buffalo traded the pick that was used to draft Mahomes to Kansas City because McDermott couldn’t draft a QB until Beane got there?

The Bills weren’t outcoached last year in the playoffs.  They were punched in the face by a team that was bigger, faster, and stronger than they were.  I totally disagree with the notion that Beane has built a Super Bowl caliber roster over the past three seasons.  Given that this thread is about hurdling KC, when is the last time Beane drafted better than Veach?  The disparity in drafting over the last 3 years is enormous.

I didn’t say they were.  You asked why Beane doesn’t get more heat and I answered it with the handling of 13 Seconds and the horrible coaching in the Bengals game makes it far easier to blame McDermott than Beane.

[Billl]

11 minutes ago, Aussie Joe said:

Kincaid is fine …just had the 5th best rookie year ever for a TE….I expect be better next year ..

 

Beane has also drafted Cook, Torrence and Bernard the last 2 years …

Right.  His drafting has been solid, but that isn’t the standard.  If the goal is hurdling Kansas City, you have to compare what Beane has done to what Veach has done.  Kincaid, Cook, Torrence, and Bernard aren’t on the level of Rice, Pacheco, McDuffie, Karlaftis, Chenal, Cook, etc.

 

My point isn’t that the Bills roster is bad.  They’ve been one of the best teams in the league over the past several years.  My point is that you can’t compare what Beane has given McDermott to what Veach has given Reid and say that McDermott deserves to be fired if he can’t get past the Chiefs.  Reid started with a better roster, and Veach has supplemented that roster with better draft picks.

[Aussie Joe]

9 minutes ago, Billl said:

Right.  His drafting has been solid, but that isn’t the standard.  If the goal is hurdling Kansas City, you have to compare what Beane has done to what Veach has done.  Kincaid, Cook, Torrence, and Bernard aren’t on the level of Rice, Pacheco, McDuffie, Karlaftis, Chenal, Cook, etc.

 

My point isn’t that the Bills roster is bad.  They’ve been one of the best teams in the league over the past several years.  My point is that you can’t compare what Beane has given McDermott to what Veach has given Reid and say that McDermott deserves to be fired if he can’t get past the Chiefs.  Reid started with a better roster, and Veach has supplemented that roster with better draft picks.

Edit - apologies I misread your post … though you were saying they “ had a bad roster “..

 

I’ll just say that the Chiefs have done better in the draft the last two years … I think you  under estimate what Beane has done though …

Edited February 10 by Aussie Joe

[MikePJ76]

11 hours ago, ProcessTruster said:

yeah unfortunate all the defensive starters were out vs the Chiefs.  that was the moment , and none of the defense was on the field.   

 

is what it is.   Roster is great, but if they're not on the field for a single elimination tournament game, that's usually when you go home.   really unfortunate.   Injuries matter.  

yes the injuries at linebacker were just incredibly poor timing.  The defensive line was 100% healthy and they got pushed around at home all game.

 

I just don't trust this front office/head coach to find DL talent in the draft.  They seem to ironically have an excellent record drafting offensive players recently but the defense just has to be better.  They can not continue to get pushed around at home in the playoffs.

 

I don't know how they pull off what they need to do on defense in one offseason.  It seems like a 2 to 3 year process

Edited February 11 by MikePJ76

[Goin Breakdown]

22 hours ago, Sammy Watkins' Rib said:

 

Disingenous? I don’t know think so. Even IF Allen has a shorter career, I expect him to play through the age of 30 at a high level. That is three more years, three more years at which the window is wide open at a minimum. And that is the absolute minimum IMO. 
 

There are fools in the media that thought we would miss the playoffs this year going into this season because they thought our window had closed. 
 

Agreed nothing is guaranteed. Bills have shown an inability to rise to the occasion of the defensive side of the ball against the better teams. Small sample size as those teams are just the Chiefs and Bengals but it’s still worrisome. 

We've got QBs playing into their 40s now. Im Not worried about Allen. I'm worried about this organization wasting The Josh years by not surrounding him with talented WRs. We finally seem to have gotten the Oline respectable so at least there's that (for the time)  

[CincyBillsFan]

7 minutes ago, Goin Breakdown said:

We've got QBs playing into their 40s now. Im Not worried about Allen. I'm worried about this organization wasting The Josh years by not surrounding him with talented WRs. We finally seem to have gotten the Oline respectable so at least there's that (for the time)  

The operative word here is FINALLY.  That it took them 5 years to get the O line right is on Bean.  The fact remains that the Bills brain trust made a conscious decision to NOT surround Allen with the best O line and offensive skill players and that has cost us dearly in the playoffs.

 

 

[ganesh]

The Bills lost a game that they had every chance of winning in the final quarter.  There last three drives resulted in zero points.   The blame for this lies on everyone including Allen.   Josh to win the big thing needs to play the smart game.  In that final drive they needed to get closer to a makeable FG first before going for the TD.   

 

The defense has been pretty bad through Josh's tenure and that needs to change.  We are making big bucks to guys that are not making ENOUGH plays.  Hyde, Poyer, Miller, Jones, White are top 5 players in a defense that have not delivered (either through injury or poor play).  

 

The Bills need to get that defense younger and let them play.   

[Goin Breakdown]

54 minutes ago, CincyBillsFan said:

The operative word here is FINALLY.  That it took them 5 years to get the O line right is on Bean.  The fact remains that the Bills brain trust made a conscious decision to NOT surround Allen with the best O line and offensive skill players and that has cost us dearly in the playoffs.

 

 

Yep and this is why I'm not confident that I can fully trust them to do right moving forward. "The process" seems to be build a defense and let josh carry the Offense. I don't trust the coaching on the defensive side and I think as awesome as josh is, he is only 1 person. 

[BillsPride12]

4 hours ago, Billl said:

Right.  His drafting has been solid, but that isn’t the standard.  If the goal is hurdling Kansas City, you have to compare what Beane has done to what Veach has done.  Kincaid, Cook, Torrence, and Bernard aren’t on the level of Rice, Pacheco, McDuffie, Karlaftis, Chenal, Cook, etc.

 

My point isn’t that the Bills roster is bad.  They’ve been one of the best teams in the league over the past several years.  My point is that you can’t compare what Beane has given McDermott to what Veach has given Reid and say that McDermott deserves to be fired if he can’t get past the Chiefs.  Reid started with a better roster, and Veach has supplemented that roster with better draft picks.

I agree with this take and have been saying it for awhile.  Beane has built a very good football team no doubt, the best we have seen here in Buffalo since Bill Polian and the Super Bowl teams but in my opinion he has not built a true Super Bowl caliber roster yet.  Way too many Bills fans place all of the blame on injuries and bad McDermott decisions(which there have been some of those too) but I've always felt like the overall rosters we have been rolling with in this era are one level below a truly dominant championship team.  Failing to surround Allen with more explosive weapons and failing to build a dominant pass rush on the Defensive side of the ball have been my biggest issues with Beane.  I mean he has certainly tried to address those things but he has whiffed over and over again.  

Edited February 11 by BillsPride12

[Success]

6 hours ago, Billl said:

Remember when Buffalo traded the pick that was used to draft Mahomes to Kansas City because McDermott couldn’t draft a QB until Beane got there?

The Bills weren’t outcoached last year in the playoffs.  They were punched in the face by a team that was bigger, faster, and stronger than they were.  I totally disagree with the notion that Beane has built a Super Bowl caliber roster over the past three seasons.  Given that this thread is about hurdling KC, when is the last time Beane drafted better than Veach?  The disparity in drafting over the last 3 years is enormous.

 

I don't think the bolded is a fair take.

 

What is a Super Bowl caliber roster?  Well, you root for one.  KC is that. They're IN the Super Bowl.  And the Bills non-Super Bowl caliber roster beat KC at their house in the regular.  In the playoffs, I think most would agree that it was a coin flip game.

 

And in that game, KC's receivers, who had notably dropped quite a few passes all season, made spectacular catches - while the Bills made some fairly uncharacteristic drops on what would have been game-changing plays.  It's hard to pin something like that on roster construction.  And people call it the injury excuse, but it's not an excuse if it's reality.  I don't think the Chiefs would have fared as well if they were missing their 2 best LB's, their 2 best CB's, and their #2 WR (as well as other assorted key players).

 

I said before the season that the Bills had their best roster in the JA era, and I stand by that.  They were as Super Bowl caliber as any team - certainly when relatively healthy.

 

Has Veach been better than Beane?  It's hard to argue the results.  Veach is great.  But the Bills have drafted really well over the past few years.  Veach's picks seem to have more of an immediate impact, while some of the Bills picks have emerged over time.  

 

And that's only part of the equation for a GM.  Considering our cap situation, Beane has done a great job of adding key contributors.  His biggest miss over the past few years (imo) has been at the WR position, with both Harty & Sherfield, neither of whom panned out as hoped.

 

 

 

[90sBills]

6 hours ago, Billl said:

Right.  His drafting has been solid, but that isn’t the standard.  If the goal is hurdling Kansas City, you have to compare what Beane has done to what Veach has done.  Kincaid, Cook, Torrence, and Bernard aren’t on the level of Rice, Pacheco, McDuffie, Karlaftis, Chenal, Cook, etc.

 

My point isn’t that the Bills roster is bad.  They’ve been one of the best teams in the league over the past several years.  My point is that you can’t compare what Beane has given McDermott to what Veach has given Reid and say that McDermott deserves to be fired if he can’t get past the Chiefs.  Reid started with a better roster, and Veach has supplemented that roster with better draft picks.

I don’t think it’s a roster issue between the two teams. The main difference for me is KC has acquired that winning culture when it counts while the Bills are still learning to do it against great teams. This goes for the coaching staff down to all the players. 

[Mr. Wonderful]

On 2/9/2024 at 11:55 PM, Ethan in Cleveland said:

McDermott's window is next year

Anything short of s SuperBowl appearance and he has to go. 

 

This is just asinine.  The Chiefs have a better QB, better defense, and 51 million in cap space.  Barring sheer luck or injuries it is impossible to overtake the Chiefs and get to the Super Bowl. 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

On 2/10/2024 at 5:01 AM, Billsfanatic8989 said:

The Bills can beat the Chiefs. They have done it alot. Just not in the postseason. And two of those games came down to the wire. 

 

I believe it's coaching that wins KC the playoff games. Which is why realistically 2024 is McD's last chance. Anything short of a conference title game, I think he is out. I still can't forgive him for "13 seconds". That still stings. 

 

This team needs a HC to push them over the hump. Belichick would improve this D. And we already have the QB. 

I hope your right but most likely if Mcd has the same season next year he'll be back . 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

On 2/10/2024 at 5:22 AM, MikePJ76 said:

beating the chiefs is 100 % on the defense.

 

Mcdermott's group comes up short every year, low scoring games, high scoring games...doesn't matter his defense comes up small.

 

and now they are essentially starting over on the defensive line which will take up precious resources, replacing precious resources that have already been spent on the defensive line.

 

it feels like mcdermott is in the same spot tony dungy was in when he was in tampa...he just had no answers and could not get over the hump.

 

hopefully they have an A+ draft and find some productive players in mid level free agency.  

 

So far their answer to the defense not getting over the hump was to overpay for von miller who then was injured and is not the same player anymore and they are stuck with him.  He was supposed to be their charles haley, reggie white or jevon kearse to get them over the hump and he has been an expensive dud.

 

They have dug quite a hole with the roster defensively and with a bad contract to miller.  I am not sure how you rebuild an entire defensive line in one offseason.

 

 

We got to swallow those bad contracts this yr if I'm Beane I'm not touching Von, Diggs or Knox deals. 

 

We also shouldn't resign any of our free agents that are near or over 30. We need to have a great draft with 10 pks were gonna need 7 guys that contribute in some fashion whether in a depth role , special teams and hopefully at least 3 starters this yr and more in 25 . It's time for a roster reset especially on the back end of the roster were we need more cheap players under contract. 

 

The only players we should sign that will cost anywhere from 7-10 mil per season is a couple of young safeties in free agency it's a loaded yr for that and maybe a DT1 otherwise the rest of the signings should be dust settle minimum wage vets. 

 

This is a great opportunity for the Bills to get younger as a team and to rebuild the Dline but the problem like u said is how do we trust Mcd to build a Dline that he's already proven he couldn't build with massive assets. 

[NastyNateSoldiers]

10 hours ago, Billl said:

Remember when Buffalo traded the pick that was used to draft Mahomes to Kansas City because McDermott couldn’t draft a QB until Beane got there?

The Bills weren’t outcoached last year in the playoffs.  They were punched in the face by a team that was bigger, faster, and stronger than they were.  I totally disagree with the notion that Beane has built a Super Bowl caliber roster over the past three seasons.  Given that this thread is about hurdling KC, when is the last time Beane drafted better than Veach?  The disparity in drafting over the last 3 years is enormous.

Yes we were definitely outcoached and outclassed last yr vs the Bengals. The Bills had a game plan built for a dome and the Bengals were ready for a snow fight! 

[Billsatlastin2018]

On 2/9/2024 at 9:30 PM, Patrick Fitzryan said:

He's only 27. Peyton Manning didn't win his first playoff game until he was two months shy of 28. Manning was 0-6 in his first six games against Brady; Allen was 3-3 in his first six against Mahomes.

 

I have my issues with how the team has been constructed since he was drafted, but let's not get crazy about any window being "wasted" or dwindling.

Here’s something you didn’t think about.

 

How much longer do you think he’s gonna STAY in Buffalo with that loser McClapper in charge?

 

Only fools think he won’t try being a FA to move to a better coached and managed team, with the necessary back up cast for the Lombardi!

13 hours ago, Aussie Joe said:

 

I’ll just say that the Chiefs have done better in the draft the last two years … I think you  under estimate what Beane has done though …

BETTER?😂

 

One of their recent SB performances, they had SIX… count ‘em Rookies… playing in the SB! Beanie Boy can’t even get his choices on the field a majority of time! 

[finn]

On 2/9/2024 at 9:30 PM, Patrick Fitzryan said:

He's only 27. Peyton Manning didn't win his first playoff game until he was two months shy of 28. Manning was 0-6 in his first six games against Brady; Allen was 3-3 in his first six against Mahomes.

 

I have my issues with how the team has been constructed since he was drafted, but let's not get crazy about any window being "wasted" or dwindling.

Agreed. It's like flipping a coin and deciding that three heads in a row is a sign from Satan, or shows that heads is better and will always win. The chest-beaters in KC will feel pretty foolish when Allen ends up with more SB victories than Mahomes. 

[Billsatlastin2018]

25 minutes ago, finn said:

The chest-beaters in KC will feel pretty foolish when Allen ends up with more SB victories than Mahomes. 

WE hope so.

’HOPE’ being the only word Bills fans have.

 

In the real world,

* Kermit has a 14-3 Playoff Record

* He is shooting for his THIRD Lombardi!

*The Chiefs are in it for the 4th time in 5 years!

 

On the personal side, with a modest 2 TD + 300 yard game, he will pass Peyton as #5 All Time & #8 Elway. We all know he’s even better in the Regular Season.

That’s only in the Playoffs, the ONLY thing I give a ***** about with the Bills!

 

Please tell us exactly when that turn around by Josh will occur under present leadership.

 

[Sammy Watkins' Rib]

17 hours ago, Billl said:

I will never understand why McDermott catches so many of the arrows when Beane keeps hamstringing him with lesser players.  Three years ago, Beane drafted Epenesa and Basham, Veach drafted Bolton and Humphrey.  A year later, Buffalo needed a CB.  Beane let KC jump him to take McDuffie while Buffalo traded up for Elam.  Then Kansas City still drafted Karlaftis a few picks later.   Last year, Buffalo needed a pass catcher, so Beane traded up for Kincaid in the first round. Kansas City traded up for Rice in the second round.

 

You can’t expect McDermott to outcoach Andy Reid.  He’s a HOF coach.  If you’re going to beat him, you have to have equal or better talent, and Beane has been getting outmaneuvered year after year on draft day by their biggest obstacle.  Even this year, they’re going into the draft with only two picks in the first two days of the draft because Beane had to trade away a third round pick for a CB whose about to turn 30.  

 

I just don’t see how this is a failing of coaching when the GM is getting schooled every April.

 

Can't agree with your take that the Bills don't have a Super Bowl caliber roster. I think only one team since 2020, four years, has been consistently better than the Bills. That's your Chiefs. If the standard is, are you better than the Chiefs? Then okay, yeah Bills don't have a Super Bowl roster. But that's a unfair standard. The Bills are right there. If anything, the Bills have a Bengals problem more than a Chiefs. The Bills have shown they can beat the Chiefs in the regular season consistently and the last two post season matchups have come down to the wire. 

 

Isn't McDuffied a nickel? Bills already have an all-pro nickel. 

 

Bills didn't just need a pass catcher last off-season. They needed to get better on the interior of the o-line. A bit disingenuous to suggest that the Bills whiffed on trading up in the first for Kincaid when they could have stayed pat or traded back and got Rice. I see nothing wrong at all with the Bills first two selections. Torrance so far looks like a plug and play player that will be here for 10 years. 

 

Bills also have a couple young pieces that look like stars in the making in Benard and Shakir from the draft the year before. Benford in the 6th round was a home run pick. Elam has struggled. Oddly enough he has two interceptions in the three career playoffs games he has taken snaps on defense. 

[finn]

1 hour ago, Billsatlastin2018 said:

Please tell us exactly when that turn around by Josh will occur under present leadership.

 

I don't have an answer for that one. I think Beane is as good as any GM in the game (despite his huge mistake re Gabe Davis). But McDermott is at best a neutral factor. I give him credit for helping to build the Bills, but he's holding them back at this point. He seems afraid to lose, in stark contrast to Allen's attitude, which is all about winning.

 

Allen has the heart of a lion. McDermott has the heart of an accountant.