Bills Draft Needs - From the Athletic

[BuffaloBillyG]

44 minutes ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

RE: safety

I can see Kyle Duggar being signed by Buffalo. 

I know they were enamored with him before. 

Dugger is the guy I've been screaming for so far this off season. That said, he may end up out of our price range. Spotrac has his market valued at $16.5M a year on a 4 year $66M contract. I personally don't think he hits that, but I'd love for him to be here if it doesn't.

 

Some other names at Safety:

 

Geno Stone

Kameron Curl

Jordan Whitehead 

 

Most realistic IMO: Taylor Rapp being back

 

 

[Logic]

Just a reminder (and I'm not the first to give it):

If you rank your primary needs as, let's say:

1. WR
2. S
3. DE

4. DT

That does NOT mean that the draft needs to go:

Round 1: WR

Round 2: S
Round 3: DE
Round 4: DT

Now, I'm absolutely in favor of spending our 1st round pick on a wide receiver. Heck, I'm fine with spending our 1st AND 2nd round picks on a WR. I'm team "load up the offense" all day long. 

It's just that, far too often, people look at the draft as an opportunity to go down your needs list and match the need priority to the draft round. This is an overly simplistic way of looking at things, and far too often, the draft board doesn't match your positional priority wishlist. 

All of this is to say: Yes, you, me, and Farfel the dog all want a wide receiver early, but if the value isn't there at pick 28 and a great safety or DT is sticking out like a sore thumb on their board, be prepared for them to take said player, and circle back for a WR in round 2 and beyond. I know that, even with this warning, there will be a torrent of anguished howling from many Bills fans if they take a defensive player 1st, and I get it, but...the draft just isn't as simply and elegantly laid out as you'd like it to be, and draft value NEEDS to be a factor, or you end up reaching for inferior players just to fill needs.

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Nothing in this list is drastically wrong. But a bit early to project it IMO. Let's see what the roster looks like after FA. List will certainly be addressed there in parts as well.

Given the Bills limited cap space, none of these needs will be change too much by FA signings. The most we can hope for is that they bring back Epenesa or Jones and signing a mid level safety.  Even if sign both Jones and Epenesa that won’t end the need for depth at those positions.  All it will do is change in what round we draft the depth. We likely won’t see FA spending at WR or OLine depth.  

I still see us going WR then Safety with the first two picks and then looking elsewhere after that. My hope is, given the depth in the draft at those two positions, is that Beane trades down a few slots in the first to pick up an extra 3rd.  I don’t think Franklin or Coleman will still be on the board at 28. Therefore the Bills are looking at the next tier of receivers and most of them, guys like Worthy, Mitchell, McConkey, Legette, and Polk will still be there in the early 2nd. 

 

[QCity]

2 hours ago, GASabresIUFan said:

https://theathletic.com/5252981/2024/02/06/buffalo-bills-nfl-draft-needs-holes-positions/

 

Primary Needs

1) 1, maybe 2 explosive receivers.  Need to replace Davis and could use a legit downfield threat.

 

2) Defensive End - Lawson, Floyd, and Epenesa are all FAs.  They think it will be a challenge to bring both Floyd and Epenesa back.  I don't think either will return.  Regardless, they suggest getting someone this draft to split time with Miller and takeover for him in 2025

 

3) Defensive Tackle - Jones, Settle, Ford, and Phillips are FAs, leaving only Oliver as a returning starter (or contributor for that matter).  They think a Day 2 or early day 3 draft pick will help fill the void.

 

Hallelujah. 

[hondo in seattle]

For a team that's been on top of the AFCE for a few years now, we have a long shopping list.  

 

I'm hoping Beane finds a way to upgrade the roster and get us into the SB but he certainly has his work cut out for him.  

[BuffaloBillyG]

6 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

Given the Bills limited cap space, none of these needs will be change too much by FA signings. The most we can hope for is that they bring back Epenesa or Jones and signing a mid level safety.  Even if sign both Jones and Epenesa that won’t end the need for depth at those positions.  All it will do is change in what round we draft the depth. We likely won’t see FA spending at WR or OLine depth.  

I still see us going WR then Safety with the first two picks and then looking elsewhere after that. My hope is, given the depth in the draft at those two positions, is that Beane trades down a few slots in the first to pick up an extra 3rd.  I don’t think Franklin or Coleman will still be on the board at 28. Therefore the Bills are looking at the next tier of receivers and most of them, guys like Worthy, Mitchell, McConkey, Legette, and Polk will still be there in the early 2nd. 

 

Very solid thoughts and ideas, but again it boils down to "we don't know what we don't know"

 

Right now, yes looks like a meager FA with the cap space. But when it's all said and done  they will make moves and open money for who they want.

 

As you say this draft is deep at WR, which is why I'm ok if they wait until round 2 to fill that spot with someone that fits well. I think we see them sign someone like Darnell Mooney. Not top level, but a guy that has had 1,000 hard season before and has had some issues since. Could be a bargain. And (not that they are players I advocate for) I still can't shake the feeling that guys like Donovan Peoples-Jones and Devin Duvernay will be on their radar as well. 

 

As far as moves they can make that would change our draft needs, there's still room for that as well especially with the round 4-7 picks.

[SoonerBillsFan]

1 hour ago, billsfan89 said:

Hard to say as its going to depend on what the team does in free agency. Who is retained and if they can maybe make this year's "Connor McGovern" mid-level free agency addition? I assume Gabe is gone which is going to make WR a big need especially with Diggs being older they need an heir apparent and immediate impact which makes that first-round pick ripe to be used at WR. On defense, the D-line as well as safety are likely needs. Kicker and Punter along with maybe a special teams "specialist" are also possible needs. 

 

Offensively outside of WR the team is solid a bruising RB behind Cook is a possible need if it is not addressed in free agency and offensive line depth (or a center heir apparent if Mitch hangs it up) and a possible third-string TE are smaller needs. But overall outside of finding a dynamic WR2 and depth at WR its not many "glaring" needs on offense. 

Outside of Mike Evans who is significantly out of our price range, Im not thrilled with any WR's in FA.  We need to draft 2 and one needs to step up and be starting for us.

[GASabresIUFan]

1 hour ago, BuffaloBillyG said:

Very solid thoughts and ideas, but again it boils down to "we don't know what we don't know"

 

Right now, yes looks like a meager FA with the cap space. But when it's all said and done  they will make moves and open money for who they want.

 

As you say this draft is deep at WR, which is why I'm ok if they wait until round 2 to fill that spot with someone that fits well. I think we see them sign someone like Darnell Mooney. Not top level, but a guy that has had 1,000 hard season before and has had some issues since. Could be a bargain. And (not that they are players I advocate for) I still can't shake the feeling that guys like Donovan Peoples-Jones and Devin Duvernay will be on their radar as well. 

 

As far as moves they can make that would change our draft needs, there's still room for that as well especially with the round 4-7 picks.

I can understand how most feel a FA signing at WR is likely.  After all Beane has never drafted a receiver above the 4th round and continues to search the Walmart clearance rack for help at the position like Harry and Sherfield.  My hope is he finally sees the light and commits real draft capital to the position.  We need a cost controlled Davis replacement and an eventually Diggs replacement.  Given the depth in this draft at WR this seems like the year of do both.

1 hour ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Outside of Mike Evans who is significantly out of our price range, Im not thrilled with any WR's in FA.  We need to draft 2 and one needs to step up and be starting for us.

Until we shave 70 Mill off our current cap, everyone is out of our price range.   I calculate the top 30 Bills plus dead cap costs us about 261 million in cap.  
 

 

Edited February 6 by GASabresIUFan

[SoonerBillsFan]

4 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I can understand how most feel a FA signing at WR is likely.  After all Beane has never drafted a receiver above the 4th round and continues to search the Walmart clearance rack for help at the position like Harry and Sherfield.  Mu hope is he finally sees the light and commits real draft capital to the position.  We need a cost controlled Davis replacement and an eventually Diggs replacement.  Given the depth in this draft at WR this seems like the year of do both.

Until we shave 70 Mill off our current cap, everyone is out of our price range.   I calculate the top 30 Bills plus dead cap costs us about 261 million in cap.  
 

 

70 mill leaves us 19 mill and that aint squat.  

[GustheDog33]

1 hour ago, mushypeaches said:

WR in the 1st round is almost an absolute must

 

I will lose my lunch if we take a safety or DL in that spot

Most likely to be an after dinner snack or dessert coming back up...

[BuffaloBillyG]

31 minutes ago, GASabresIUFan said:

I can understand how most feel a FA signing at WR is likely.  After all Beane has never drafted a receiver above the 4th round and continues to search the Walmart clearance rack for help at the position like Harry and Sherfield.  Mu hope is he finally sees the light and commits real draft capital to the position.  We need a cost controlled Davis replacement and an eventually Diggs replacement.  Given the depth in this draft at WR this seems like the year of do both.

Until we shave 70 Mill off our current cap, everyone is out of our price range.   I calculate the top 30 Bills plus dead cap costs us about 261 million in cap.  
 

 

I actually think it makes sense to do both. Grab a guy like Mooney that can contribute early in the season and let the rookie figure it out. Even a guy like Rice for KC took a while this season to catch on. 

 

From my perspective, the NFL these days is about mismatches. IMO this is why so many teams with good TEs made it deep in the playoffs this year. Kelce, LaPorta, Kittle and Andrews/Likely are all top notch. I think drafting Kincaid last year softens the need (just a tad) for us to need a rookie to step in and produce right away. IMO whoever lines up at the WR2 spot should be the third option behind Diggs and Kincaid anyway.

 

But do agree, we need something more than what we have had there and someone that can step in when Stefon is taken out of a game. 

[Mr. WEO]

why don't they just bring back Brown and Beasley and draft some D lineman instead?

[GASabresIUFan]

45 minutes ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

70 mill leaves us 19 mill and that aint squat.  

Scary right? How do you complete a roster with only 19 mill in cap space before signing your draft picks?  10 vet bottom of the barrel contracts will cost 15-20 mill.  

[RiotAct]

2 hours ago, NastyNateSoldiers said:

They don't get rid of Bass he just signed a massive extension for a kicker and would cost more to cut then to keep.

man, a lot of those decisions (big contracts for Miller, Bass and Knox) are really coming home to roost now.

[nedboy7]

We're gonna start 6 rookies? 

[billsfan89]

2 hours ago, SoonerBillsFan said:

Outside of Mike Evans who is significantly out of our price range, Im not thrilled with any WR's in FA.  We need to draft 2 and one needs to step up and be starting for us.

 

I think the Bills will need to go WR in rounds 1 and 3, I hope Brian Thomas Jr falls to 28 or the Bills don't need to do a massive trade-up for him. The Bills are not going to get Harrision Jr, who will go top 5 and highly unlikely they get Odunze who will go top 10 or just outside the top 10. Keon Colemen is also unlikely to be attainable as he is likely going to go in the mid to late teens. Thomas Jr, however being the 4th WR off the board (thus far although a lot can change) is a possibility that he can last until pick 23-25 where the Bills can make a decent trade-up to get him at a reasonable cost. 

 

There are other options besides Thomas Jr that are solid too but thus far he is who I would like to see. 

[LabattBlue]

8 minutes ago, billsfan89 said:

 

I think the Bills will need to go WR in rounds 1 and 3, I hope Brian Thomas Jr falls to 28 or the Bills don't need to do a massive trade-up for him. The Bills are not going to get Harrision Jr, who will go top 5 and highly unlikely they get Odunze who will go top 10 or just outside the top 10. Keon Colemen is also unlikely to be attainable as he is likely going to go in the mid to late teens. Thomas Jr, however being the 4th WR off the board (thus far although a lot can change) is a possibility that he can last until pick 23-25 where the Bills can make a decent trade-up to get him at a reasonable cost. 

 

There are other options besides Thomas Jr that are solid too but thus far he is who I would like to see. 

Malik Nabers says hello from the top of the 1st round. 

Edited February 6 by LabattBlue

[Rigotz]

4 hours ago, The Firebaugh Kid said:

RE: safety

I can see Kyle Duggar being signed by Buffalo. 

I know they were enamored with him before. 

Projected free agent contract is $16.5M/yr.

 

Do feel good about paying that to a safety?

 

Also, he plays strong safety, which what Poyer plays. We need a free safety. Very similar positions, but not the same.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/kyle-dugger-47632/market-value/?callback=in&code=NDY3N2FJNDCTN2JIYS0ZNWY4LTK2ODUTMDHKNMQ1OWFINWE3&state=a44375d939754757be9a9b07c413cb9b

[balln]

1 minute ago, Rigotz said:

Projected free agent contract is $16.5M/yr.

 

Do feel good about paying that to a safety?

 

Also, he plays strong safety, which what Poyer plays. We need a free safety. Very similar positions, but not the same.

 

https://www.spotrac.com/nfl/new-england-patriots/kyle-dugger-47632/market-value/?callback=in&code=NDY3N2FJNDCTN2JIYS0ZNWY4LTK2ODUTMDHKNMQ1OWFINWE3&state=a44375d939754757be9a9b07c413cb9b

Yup. Should have been drafting replacement future serviceable starters depth players last two years.

 

i DO not understand the shorter wr pick in the 4th round ! Or the tenuta OL pick. Shorter is NoT going to turn into anything. Not even special teams.

 

really

needed to draft a young safety or DL w some of those late picks. 

[SoonerBillsFan]

The first thing is to see how the cap is freed up, and how far under we will be March 13th.  I know we will be under before that is the "legal tampering" period starts the 11th I believe.