Get excited... change is NOW with a youth wave!!!

[transplantbillsfan]

6 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea. 20 years ago. The average age of NFL players has decreased almost 2 years since then. It's a young man's game. I don't think even the great Bruce Smith has double digit sacks at those ages anymore.... and Bruce wasn't coming off a second ACL injury in those years and hadn't looked as stiff as a board the year before. 

 

What would constitute a rebound in your mind? Because if it just means better than 0 sacks, 0 tackles for loss, 5 total pressures and a 25% missed tackle rate in 258 defensive snaps then sure, I can imagine he does better than that. It wouldn't be difficult. But to me for it to be a rebound that makes him definitely better value than the $6.7m you might be able to spend on another vet guy it has to be AJE 2023 type production (i.e. at least good enough to be considered your first guy in off the bench in rush situations) - 6.5 sacks, 14 pressures, 7 tackles for loss (not asking him to match the 2 interceptions). 

 

I just don't see how he has that sort of impact. He could barely move out there. 

 

Yes, I think he gets at least that production.

[GunnerBill]

20 minutes ago, HappyDays said:

 

I still think the best way to handle Von is offer him a pay cut, and assuming he accepts set up the contract in a way that gives us an easy out in 2025. He has to know he isn't going to get an offer on the open market anywhere close to what he'd get with us, not with his recent performance and his legal troubles.

 

With Tre for me it's not about how likely it is he'll get back to form. It's just a clear immediate savings if we cut him with no future ramifications and the CB room is already in great shape. There's just no need to keep him. In general I hate when Beane offers under performing players pay cuts, it's like he is scared to be a little ruthless. Usually I'm in favor of cutting a player like that and if they want to come back for super cheap after discovering free agency isn't kind to them, go for it. The only reason I differ with Von is there some pretty nasty future ramifications to unload him this offseason so I'm more willing to go the pay cut route and hope to get some kind of value out of him, even if the chance is low.

 

There really are no nasty ramifications though. The money they are on the hook for next year they are on the hook for if they cut him today, on 1 June or after next season. The question is just do you pay him $23m to be here or do you pay him $16m not to be here and pocket the difference for a player who contributes more. 

 

And I don't consider Tre an underperforming player. The last game he played for the Bills was literally one of the best 5 performances in his career here. Okay, it took him 8 or 9 games to round back into top form after his last injury and now he has another injury to try and bounce back from but I still think there is a lot of good football left in Tre and at even 80% of his best he is the best corner on the Bills. 

[hondo in seattle]

12 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

McDermott is the General leading them. The Coordinators are the Captains.

 

How did it work with a geriatric DC in Frazier?

 

With geriatric Frazier, we had one of the best defenses in the NFL.

 

I don't think our failures in the playoffs had anything to do with Frazier's age.  Youth isn't an automatic cure.  

 

Frazier was born the same year I was, btw.  I don't believe my cognitive skills, imagination, inventiveness, mental energy, etc. have declined at all.  Saying Frazier is too old to run a good/aggressive defense is an insult to everyone my age.  Spags in KC is the same age as Frazier and me and seems to be doing just fine.  

 

Prejudice based on age is just as pernicious as prejudice based on race, gender, ethnicity, or anything else.  

 

 

[BADOLBILZ]

58 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There really are no nasty ramifications though. The money they are on the hook for next year they are on the hook for if they cut him today, on 1 June or after next season. The question is just do you pay him $23m to be here or do you pay him $16m not to be here and pocket the difference for a player who contributes more. 

 

And I don't consider Tre an underperforming player. The last game he played for the Bills was literally one of the best 5 performances in his career here. Okay, it took him 8 or 9 games to round back into top form after his last injury and now he has another injury to try and bounce back from but I still think there is a lot of good football left in Tre and at even 80% of his best he is the best corner on the Bills. 

 

 

Who do you replace Von Miller with at DE?

 

Tre is a zone system boundary-only CB with speed, quickness and(of course) durability concerns.    He's not physical enough to play slot like Taron or move to safety.   I know you've never felt Douglas was a starting NFL CB but that's pretty contrary to popular belief and production proof.......Benford and Elam return.........and the draft is much deeper at CB than it is at DE.      

[boater]

5 minutes ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

With geriatric Frazier, we had one of the best defenses in the NFL.

 

I don't think our failures in the playoffs had anything to do with Frazier's age.  Youth isn't an automatic cure.  

 

Frazier was born the same year I was, btw.  I don't believe my cognitive skills, imagination, inventiveness, mental energy, etc. have declined at all.  Saying Frazier is too old to run a good/aggressive defense is an insult to everyone my age.  Spags in KC is the same age as Frazier and me and seems to be doing just fine.  

 

Prejudice based on age is just as pernicious as prejudice based on race, gender, ethnicity, or anything else.  

 

 

You have all your brain cells working, good. Tip: if your Doc prescribes a statin drug for cholesterol--don't take it. Statin drugs bring brain fog.

 

As a White Male Senior recently looking for a job, I can assure you age discrimination is rampant. I even made a resume without dates--it got nowhere. So here I sit, retired earlier than I want to be.

[HappyDays]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

There really are no nasty ramifications though. The money they are on the hook for next year they are on the hook for if they cut him today, on 1 June or after next season. The question is just do you pay him $23m to be here or do you pay him $16m not to be here and pocket the difference for a player who contributes more. 

 

The ramification is that we don't get to use the freed up cap space this year for anything meaningful because it wouldn't become usable until June 2. I know we signed Leonard Floyd in June last year which worked out decently well but that was a rare outcome. A few other older edge rushers - Justin Houston, Melvin Ingram, a couple others - signed with teams late in the offseason and none of those signings turned into anything meaningful. You can't realistically count on finding a decent edge rusher in June... And the position group is already thin as can be, and we have very little cap space to work with to rebuild it. I just don't see any benefit to cutting him. It only makes our roster worse.

 

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

And I don't consider Tre an underperforming player.

 

It's probably not fair to say Tre has underperformed... But he has played in just 21 out of 51 games over the past three seasons. And now he is recovering from a 2nd consecutive serious lower leg injury. I have to take emotion out of the discussion and accept the player for who he is, not who I remember him as.

 

And again a lot of this for me comes down to the strength of the positions. If Tre was a DE and Von a CB I would probably feel the exact opposite of what I've argued. This regime has never had an issue filling the CB room, except when ravaged by injuries. Rasul Douglas + Christian Benford + Taron Johnson is a great starting CB combo. Elam is great depth with upside. They have a history of finding capable players late on day three of the draft and even UDFA. Edge rushers on the other hand they have never quite gotten it right, and the room as it stands (without Von) is just Greg Rousseau + Kingsley Jonathan. If nothing else we need bodies on the roster and we aren't gonna find a capable edge rusher in the 6th round.

[JerseyBills]

2 hours ago, Green Lightning said:

OLine is not a disaster like it was but it's still not a strength. Morse cannot move a good DT an inch and is easily bull rushed. And he's one more head hit away from permanent injury. We need a wide-body stud center so we don't need trick plays or deep passes on 3rd and short.

So why not just cut Morse? Thought he been solid

[Jrb1979]

It's hard to take this thread seriously. The OP once thought Tyrod Taylor was going to be an MVP candidate 

[transplantbillsfan]

1 hour ago, hondo in seattle said:

 

With geriatric Frazier, we had one of the best defenses in the NFL.

 

I don't think our failures in the playoffs had anything to do with Frazier's age.  Youth isn't an automatic cure.  

 

Frazier was born the same year I was, btw.  I don't believe my cognitive skills, imagination, inventiveness, mental energy, etc. have declined at all.  Saying Frazier is too old to run a good/aggressive defense is an insult to everyone my age.  Spags in KC is the same age as Frazier and me and seems to be doing just fine.  

 

Prejudice based on age is just as pernicious as prejudice based on race, gender, ethnicity, or anything else.  

 

 

 

Really didn't mean to offend in terms of age, but our failures in the playoffs especially in the 13 second game certainly had something to do with Frazier's "bend don't break" defensive mentality that he's notorious for.  Same goes for other big games we've lost, including the Houston playoff game in 2019.

 

Age aside, Frazier's defenses were always great in the regular season, but were a huge contributor if not THE contributor to our final losses in 4 consecutive playoff games.  That Bengals game last year Burrow picked the Bills D apart because Frazier approached the game with what everyone could tell was obviously the wrong game plan.

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Who do you replace Von Miller with at DE?

 

Tre is a zone system boundary-only CB with speed, quickness and(of course) durability concerns.    He's not physical enough to play slot like Taron or move to safety.   I know you've never felt Douglas was a starting NFL CB but that's pretty contrary to popular belief and production proof.......Benford and Elam return.........and the draft is much deeper at CB than it is at DE.      

 

On Von - literally anyone. He was hopeless this year and I have zero faith in his ability to return to form. He couldn't move let alone rush. 

 

On Tre.... I think Douglas played pretty well. But I still think an 80% Tre White is an upgrade on him. He remains comfortably our best corner IMO. And his game against Miami in which he got injured he was outstanding. I feel reasonably confident he can get back. I wouldn't take that chance at the current deal. But if he is willl to take a pay cut I would and there is reason to believe he would.

[transplantbillsfan]

12 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just think there is way more chance, and I mean like to the times of ten, that you get the old Tre White than you get the old Von Miller. I really don't think it's close. 

 

Try and renegotiate with Tre. Cut Von. 

 

Wow... seriously disagree on this.

 

Tre had 2 injuries to the same leg basically 2 years in a row.  And the 2nd injury is considered a much worse injury than the first.

 

Meanwhile, Von's first injury was years ago.  Yes, age might be a factor, but Von fully recovered from his first injury and was back to his old self for years.  We never truly saw that happen after Tre's first injury.  I think Von's age just made for a longer recovery time.

 

I think we keep both guys, but if I were to bet on which one is going to have a better 2024 season, it's Von by a longshot.

[transplantbillsfan]

11 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Why would we you think we are assured to see an improvement from a guy at an age where almost everyone at that position has hit the decline? The history of pass rushers beyond 35 is not good, and in the last 15 years it is even worse than "not good". It is almost non-existant. And that isn't factoring in coming off the ACL and the obvious limitations on his movement last year. 

 

Again, I'll be here to eat crow if I'm wrong. But Von Miller is finished.

 

Von Miller is one of the absolute best pass rushers in NFL history.

 

The fact that you believe suddenly he won't even belong on an NFL field less than 2 years removed from 8 sacks in 10 games is pretty amazing to me.

[GunnerBill]

8 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Von Miller is one of the absolute best pass rushers in NFL history.

 

The fact that you believe suddenly he won't even belong on an NFL field less than 2 years removed from 8 sacks in 10 games is pretty amazing to me.

 

He literally didn't belong on an NFL field this year and he is about to turn 35. The odds are slim to none.

[BADOLBILZ]

14 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

On Von - literally anyone. He was hopeless this year and I have zero faith in his ability to return to form. He couldn't move let alone rush. 

 

On Tre.... I think Douglas played pretty well. But I still think an 80% Tre White is an upgrade on him. He remains comfortably our best corner IMO. And his game against Miami in which he got injured he was outstanding. I feel reasonably confident he can get back. I wouldn't take that chance at the current deal. But if he is willl to take a pay cut I would and there is reason to believe he would.

 

 

Yeah I see your point, they could just roll with Kameron Kline at RDE and be fine so long as Tre White can keep that slouch Benford on the bench. 

 

DE in the Bills system is the position where physical talent is the most important.    No defense asks DE's to have any broader of a skillset in order for the defense to succeed.   Very hard position to fill with impact.

 

Is Miller totally washed or does his recovery just extend into a second offseason like White's ACL recovery did?

 

I don't know but if you are gambling on upside at a position in the Bills defense DE is that position.

 

I don't have any problem moving on from either player if I know the replacements are at least going to allow the defense to remain a strength.

 

But November 2022 Von Miller would be much more valuable than September 2023 Tre White.   That part is not disputable.

 

 

 

 

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

Yeah I see your point, they could just roll with Kameron Kline at RDE and be fine so long as Tre White can keep that slouch Benford on the bench. 

 

DE in the Bills system is the position where physical talent is the most important.    No defense asks DE's to have any broader of a skillset in order for the defense to succeed.   Very hard position to fill with impact.

 

Is Miller totally washed or does his recovery just extend into a second offseason like White's ACL recovery did?

 

I don't know but if you are gambling on upside at a position in the Bills defense DE is that position.

 

I don't have any problem moving on from either player if I know the replacements are at least going to allow the defense to remain a strength.

 

But November 2022 Von Miller would be much more valuable than September 2023 Tre White.   That part is not disputable.

 

 

 

I don't dispute the final point - to be clear. But Von is toast. I'll happily eat crow if he isn't but I put the chances he is back at less than 5%. 

 

I also don't have any issue moving on from both. But I'd probably try and find a pay cut I can live with for Tre first.

 

[BADOLBILZ]

25 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I don't dispute the final point - to be clear. But Von is toast. I'll happily eat crow if he isn't but I put the chances he is back at less than 5%. 

 

I also don't have any issue moving on from both. But I'd probably try and find a pay cut I can live with for Tre first.

 

 

 

My biggest concern really is that the Bills would go into a draft that has excellent quality early and potentially good depth late at WR/OL/DB and instead of leaning into those strengths they try to reach for immediate need at DT and DE early........positions I view as weak this year, personally.

 

That's a recipe for disappointment.    That's how you end up starting a draft with depth players and finishing with depth players. 

 

Retaining Von is a risk.   I think he's probably 50/50 to be worth the $6M or more this year because that doesn't buy you much in free agency at edge and they got squat on the roster behind he and Rousseau.    

 

I think they could get pretty close to what Tre White could bring coming off a torn achilles(an underrated CB killer) for close to league minimum via Christian Benford.  

 

Then draft a future starter or 2 in the secondary on day 3.

 

I don't know where they are getting solutions at DE.   

[transplantbillsfan]

7 hours ago, boater said:

Ahhh... we're going to have a "Yute" movement.

[transplantbillsfan]

5 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

There really are no nasty ramifications though. The money they are on the hook for next year they are on the hook for if they cut him today, on 1 June or after next season. The question is just do you pay him $23m to be here or do you pay him $16m not to be here and pocket the difference for a player who contributes more. 

 

And I don't consider Tre an underperforming player. The last game he played for the Bills was literally one of the best 5 performances in his career here. Okay, it took him 8 or 9 games to round back into top form after his last injury and now he has another injury to try and bounce back from but I still think there is a lot of good football left in Tre and at even 80% of his best he is the best corner on the Bills. 

 

It wasn't just 8 or 9 games to round back into form after his last injury.  It was 6 games and then an entire offseason and then however many games in 2023 you would argue it took him in 2024.

 

Von now has an entire offseason to get his body right and recover.

 

You're actually convincing me even more that cutting Von simply won't happen.  It's clear you think it's strictly his age as the reason he's "shot."  You've hitched your wagon to that idea, and that's fine.

 

Brandon Beane signed him to a contract that very clearly intended to keep him for at least 3 years, plus the previous restructure.

 

Von Miller is not getting cut.  He'll have the offseason to recover and get right and then we get to see what percent of the old Von he is in 2024.

2 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

On Von - literally anyone. He was hopeless this year and I have zero faith in his ability to return to form. He couldn't move let alone rush. 

 

On Tre.... I think Douglas played pretty well. But I still think an 80% Tre White is an upgrade on him. He remains comfortably our best corner IMO. And his game against Miami in which he got injured he was outstanding. I feel reasonably confident he can get back. I wouldn't take that chance at the current deal. But if he is willl to take a pay cut I would and there is reason to believe he would.

 

Douglas played "pretty well????"  "80% Tre White is an upgrade on him"?????

 

Are you just trolling everyone?

[GunnerBill]

39 minutes ago, BADOLBILZ said:

 

 

My biggest concern really is that the Bills would go into a draft that has excellent quality early and potentially good depth late at WR/OL/DB and instead of leaning into those strengths they try to reach for immediate need at DT and DE early........positions I view as weak this year, personally.

 

That's a recipe for disappointment.    That's how you end up starting a draft with depth players and finishing with depth players. 

 

Retaining Von is a risk.   I think he's probably 50/50 to be worth the $6M or more this year because that doesn't buy you much in free agency at edge and they got squat on the roster behind he and Rousseau.    

 

I think they could get pretty close to what Tre White could bring coming off a torn achilles(an underrated CB killer) for close to league minimum via Christian Benford.  

 

Then draft a future starter or 2 in the secondary on day 3.

 

I don't know where they are getting solutions at DE.   

 

If Von plays like last year they could literally get that solution with the practice squad DT who played some end at Tottenham that you mentioned earlier. As I said before even an Ngakoue level dust settle FA (and I have never been a fan of his) is likely gonna give you more. 

 

I think it is hope beyond hope that Von is capabale of being back to even something like effective. There might not be great solutions at end anywhere else. But that doesn't mean Von is one either. I'd honestly rather take a swing on some other mid level vet FA with the $6.7m than watch Von painfully trying to move around out there. 

[GunnerBill]

48 minutes ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

It wasn't just 8 or 9 games to round back into form after his last injury.  It was 6 games and then an entire offseason and then however many games in 2023 you would argue it took him in 2024.

 

Von now has an entire offseason to get his body right and recover.

 

You're actually convincing me even more that cutting Von simply won't happen.  It's clear you think it's strictly his age as the reason he's "shot."  You've hitched your wagon to that idea, and that's fine.

 

Brandon Beane signed him to a contract that very clearly intended to keep him for at least 3 years, plus the previous restructure.

 

Von Miller is not getting cut.  He'll have the offseason to recover and get right and then we get to see what percent of the old Von he is in 2024.

 

Douglas played "pretty well????"  "80% Tre White is an upgrade on him"?????

 

Are you just trolling everyone?

 

Nah I am really not. 

 

Tre White is still the best corner on the Bills. I don't think it is close. Even if he can only get back to 80% I'd take him over the other guys. But the way he played in Washington and in the Miami game he got hurt... I mean against Miami he was all pro level Tre again. One of his best 5 games in a Bills jersey. 

 

On Von I know what the plan was. But the plan didnt include a 2nd ACL. I have hitched my wagon to the idea that what I saw on the field last season wasn't even replacement level. I don't think that's as simple as give him more time and it will come right. I know how long it took Tre but Tre wasn't a liability out there even in 2022. He wasn't playing up to his contract, sure. But he wasn't a bum. That is what Von was last year. 

 

I don't take any pleasure saying it. I have loved Von Miller as a player. I was not a critic of the signing. I totally understood it. It was the right shot to take. Sadly it hasn't worked out because of the injury. I'd just rather move on now than try and force it to work this year and potentially have a guy hobbling around out there again.