Get excited... change is NOW with a youth wave!!!

[HappyDays]

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Not true. Designated as a post June 1 cut Von saves $6.7m on this year's cap.

 

13 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

Do you want Von Miller at $23.7m or Player X at $6.7m on the roster in 2024? 

 

This came up in the Diggs thread too - Post-6/1 designations don't actually open up the cap space until 6/1. So if we cut Von with that designation we wouldn't be able to use the resulting cap space on his replacement until well after free agency dried up.

[Shaw66]

21 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

I'm gonna be honest... it took me some time to get over our season.

 

I'm good now.

 

Now I'm excited not just for next season, but our future.

 

First of all, Buffalo has the 2nd youngest OC/DC combo in the NFL. Players advocate for these guys who have plenty of juice, so let em shake us all season long! 

 

Second, and most important, a lot of people are worried about our CAP while ignoring the 10 draft picks plus 9 future reserves we have in the waiting. Combine those with young stars already on the team like Bernard, Kincaid, Shakir, Brown, Benford & Rousseau and this team is about to get a lot younger as guys like Hyde, Poyer, Miller and Diggs exit in the next 2 or 3 years.

 

To me, the future looks bright. Our most important player is about to become the veteran presence as everyone else around him gets younger. And it's by necessity because of our CAP situation.

 

But don't be afraid of that... the Bills since McBeane have been in place have maintained one of the oldest rosters in the NFL. Always low to mid 20s, as far as ranking in the NFL... not as far as age.  That means we've always been one of the 10 oldest teams in the NFL. 

 

Now we inject youth. This offseason it's inevitably going to come in the WR corps & DL especially, but it'll shift across positions moving forward.

 

And we'll have a young OC & DC with a lot of juice to connect with them and a hypercompetitive QB with a handshake for everyone and Richard jokes to get them playing for him

 

This team is actually going through some drastic changes this offseason... it has me excited!!!

Plant

 

I haven't read any of the replies, but this captures exactly how I've been feeling.  The roster transition is by design.  This is where the process sinks or swims.  They knew two years ago the roster would be turning over, and they've planned for this.  You explained it well.  Thanks. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

Tre - I think cutting him is a no-brainer, and the way McDermott and Beane talked about him in their final presser I expect it to happen. I wouldn't even offer a paycut as ruthless as that sounds. Our CB room without him is still as sound as any position group on the roster. I'd also not bring Dane back, not after his abysmal divisional round performance. Just draft another zone CB in the 6th/7th like we've done in recent years and I'm sure they'll be fine if called upon for spot duty.

I would also extend Rasul Douglas in a way that lowers his $9 million cap hit this year. Ditto for Taron Johnson and his $12 million cap hit. When all is said and done we should be spending a total of maybe $20 million on the entire CB room (EDIT: $30 million with Tre's dead cap hit). This is the clearest spot on the roster to create cap space.

 

Poyer - A few weeks ago I would have said cut him, but I agree having to replace him and Hyde in one offseason would be a real challenge. Cutting him only saves $5.4 million which would just go to signing his replacement anyways. Can't say I feel too strongly one way or the other though. Most importantly I just don't want them to pay more than $5.4 million for the position... No big game hunting for a safety in FA. We have way more important needs. If keeping Poyer helps them resist that temptation, I'm good with it.

 

Morse - Morse at his season ending presser said "I would love to come back if they'll have me." This made me raise an eyebrow. Players still under contract don't usually talk like that unless they have some inkling that the team is preparing to move on. Bates is a capable center and we may be able to get him to agree to a paycut, plus we have Alec Anderson who seemed to perform well last year (albeit in training camp & preseason), and we still have the draft where you can find decent center prospects on day 3. So yeah I would definitely cut Morse, this is pretty close to a no-brainer for me as well. For a cap strapped team you have to start with the least important positions on the roster... Center fits that bill.

 

Knox - There is no scenario where unloading Knox helps our cap situation, so however I feel about the player it's not even a conversation. Next offseason however I feel he is very likely to be cut unless he rebounds big time.

 

Von - I am torn on Von. On one hand I thought I saw some flashes in the final 3 games (including playoffs). I can see the argument to just move on and eat our losses, but that glimmer of hope that he could rebound to something close to what he was in 2022 gives me pause... All things considered I would personally accept the risk of keeping him and hope for the best. As sad as it is to say he is probably our best possibility of having a top tier edge rusher next year and that role is too important to give up on.

 

 

I just think there is way more chance, and I mean like to the times of ten, that you get the old Tre White than you get the old Von Miller. I really don't think it's close. 

 

Try and renegotiate with Tre. Cut Von. 

[Thrivefourfive]

That OP just scared me to death. 

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, transplantbillsfan said:

@GunnerBill I agree with several of your takes in this thread, but not on Von.

 

He had an ACL tear and finally started showing something in the last couple games of the season. Outside of Groot, Von may have been the best DL against KC.

 

The financials to cut him just don't make sense knowing that he was exactly what we signed him for before his injury in 2022 and that he was less than a year and 2 months out of his injury in the KC game.

 

He's a 1st ballot HOFer who was still playing like one at age 33 until he got injured.

 

If he's 75-80% of Von Miller, he's worth it to keep under that CAP hit. Floyd was a lottery ticket this year we hit on. A lot of those same vet Edge Rushers that signed in that late wave were total busts.

 

Bird in the hand...

 

But he is not 33. He is about to turn 35. He showed nothing at all last year to me. Even if he has never had the ACL this year was always likely to be one where he was no longer a true starter level and you were having to just rotate him in. How many pass rushers start in the NFL age 35? How many are productive at that point. 

 

And his post ACL play wasn't like Tre's the year before where he just looked tentative. Miller looked like he could barely move out there at times. 

 

I think the Bills probably will keep him. Beane seems almost in awe of him. But they really shouldn't. I am willing to go on record now that Von will have next to no impact in 2024. What I saw was a player for whom it is over.

[GunnerBill]

2 hours ago, HappyDays said:

 

 

This came up in the Diggs thread too - Post-6/1 designations don't actually open up the cap space until 6/1. So if we cut Von with that designation we wouldn't be able to use the resulting cap space on his replacement until well after free agency dried up.

 

Yep, correct. But that was before we signed Floyd last year. There will be vet guys out there in June in that dust settles stage. I'm just at the point where I don't think there is anything at all left with Von. 

 

Let's say the Bills had signed Ngakoue (never been my favourite player) as their dust settled guy instead of Floyd. He was pretty poor for the Bears. Yet I'd still take his contribution over Von. They don't have to hit a Floyd like home run to get more than they will get out of Von next year IMO. They jusy have to have a warm body who still has a bit of pep in the step. 

 

I will hold my hands up if I am wrong but Von Miller being finished is one of my stronger feelings on any of the decisions the Bills face this season.

 

I put the chances of getting something meaningful from him in 2024 at less than 5%.

[BillsFanForever19]

38 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yep, correct. But that was before we signed Floyd last year. There will be vet guys out there in June in that dust settles stage. I'm just at the point where I don't think there is anything at all left with Von. 

 

Let's say the Bills had signed Ngakoue (never been my favourite player) as their dust settled guy instead of Floyd. He was pretty poor for the Bears. Yet I'd still take his contribution over Von. They don't have to hit a Floyd like home run to get more than they will get out of Von next year IMO. They jusy have to have a warm body who still has a bit of pep in the step. 

 

I will hold my hands up if I am wrong but Von Miller being finished is one of my stronger feelings on any of the decisions the Bills face this season.

 

I put the chances of getting something meaningful from him in 2024 at less than 5%.

 

I can understand not having faith. But less than 5%? That's wild to me.

 

I actually think we are going to see an improvement. Will it be 2022 and before Von? That I'm not sure of. But we're talking about an all time great that is all but being written off by everyone. I think he's going to be INCREDIBLY motivated this offseason.

 

I touched on reasons that I think he was the way he was last season in another post:

 

Quote

I think there's a number of things at factor there, beyond just the knee. Between the knee not responding as quickly as he was put on the field and then domestic/legal problems on top of it, he was mentally destroyed.

 

One thing that I think was a major factor that doesn't get talked about is on top of that, getting sober. As someone who had issues myself, getting clean has a massive impact on your day to day for a while. You essentially have to re-teach yourself how to live from the ground up. Everything you did while using alcohol and substances as a crutch feels completely different and more difficult without it - both mentally and physically. Something as simple as brushing your teeth or making food feels hard. All the while, you battle the urge to not relapse and the feelings that come with that. 

 

All of those things came together at once and we saw the results. 

 

I think with a full offseason to rehab his body, his mind, to be further away from the legal issues, with intense motivation to prove he's not who he was last season, and more time to acclimate to his new life of sobriety - we're almost assuredly going to see an improvement and a vast one from what we saw last season. So long as he doesn't relapse or get into further legal and domestic issues.

Edited February 6 by BillsFanForever19

[GunnerBill]

2 minutes ago, BillsFanForever19 said:

 

I can understand not having faith. But less than 5%? That's wild to me.

 

I actually think we are going to see an improvement. Will it be 2022 and before Von? That I'm not sure of. But we're talking about an all time great that is all but being written off by everyone. I think he's going to be incredibly motivated.

 

I touched on reasons that I think he was the way he was last season in another post:

 

 

I think with a full offseason to rehab his body, his mind, to be further away from the legal issues, with intense motivation to prove he's not who he was last season, and more time to acclimate to his new life of sobriety - we're almost assuredly going to see an improvement and a vast one from what we saw last season. So long as he doesn't relapse or get into further legal and domestic issues.

 

Why would we you think we are assured to see an improvement from a guy at an age where almost everyone at that position has hit the decline? The history of pass rushers beyond 35 is not good, and in the last 15 years it is even worse than "not good". It is almost non-existant. And that isn't factoring in coming off the ACL and the obvious limitations on his movement last year. 

 

Again, I'll be here to eat crow if I'm wrong. But Von Miller is finished.

[transplantbillsfan]

52 minutes ago, GunnerBill said:

 

But he is not 33. He is about to turn 35. He showed nothing at all last year to me. Even if he has never had the ACL this year was always likely to be one where he was no longer a true starter level and you were having to just rotate him in. How many pass rushers start in the NFL age 35? How many are productive at that point. 

 

And his post ACL play wasn't like Tre's the year before where he just looked tentative. Miller looked like he could barely move out there at times. 

 

I think the Bills probably will keep him. Beane seems almost in awe of him. But they really shouldn't. I am willing to go on record now that Von will have next to no impact in 2024. What I saw was a player for whom it is over.

 

Miller looked pretty good against KC and finally had a couple game impacting reps against Pittsburgh.

 

Yes, he will be 35. Bruce Smith had 10 sacks in his age 37 season and 9 sacks in his age 39 season.

 

I will go on record that Von rebounds in 2024.

[BillsFanForever19]

1 hour ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Why would we you think we are assured to see an improvement from a guy at an age where almost everyone at that position has hit the decline? The history of pass rushers beyond 35 is not good, and in the last 15 years it is even worse than "not good". It is almost non-existant. And that isn't factoring in coming off the ACL and the obvious limitations on his movement last year. 

 

Again, I'll be here to eat crow if I'm wrong. But Von Miller is finished.

 

Because as I said, there were a lot of factors there. I think bringing him back less than a year from surgery with no offseason physically working with the Defense was really rough. I think his body didn't respond as he expected and that mentally messed with him. Then all the other things that mentally had him off piled on top of it. Not the least of it going sober mid season.

 

He did start to show signs of improvement later in the season, albeit minor ones.

 

Again, I'm not saying for sure that he's going to be the same guy he was before the injury. But to say a less than 5% chance he shows something meaningful? I think that's a crazy claim.

 

We're talking about one of the greatest of all time who has a metric sh-t ton going against him on and off the field last season. Who hears way more people than just you saying there's no chance he'll ever be close to the same guy again. I can't believe that won't motivate him.

 

Can we rely on it and just make him starter? No. Definitely going to need to get another starting level DE in here as insurance like Floyd. But I disagree that it's impossible that we won't see a big improvement over last year and DEFINITELY put it at higher than 5%

Edited February 6 by BillsFanForever19

[GunnerBill]

1 hour ago, transplantbillsfan said:

 

Miller looked pretty good against KC and finally had a couple game impacting reps against Pittsburgh.

 

Yes, he will be 35. Bruce Smith had 10 sacks in his age 37 season and 9 sacks in his age 39 season.

 

I will go on record that Von rebounds in 2024.

 

Yea. 20 years ago. The average age of NFL players has decreased almost 2 years since then. It's a young man's game. I don't think even the great Bruce Smith has double digit sacks at those ages anymore.... and Bruce wasn't coming off a second ACL injury in those years and hadn't looked as stiff as a board the year before. 

 

What would constitute a rebound in your mind? Because if it just means better than 0 sacks, 0 tackles for loss, 5 total pressures and a 25% missed tackle rate in 258 defensive snaps then sure, I can imagine he does better than that. It wouldn't be difficult. But to me for it to be a rebound that makes him definitely better value than the $6.7m you might be able to spend on another vet guy it has to be AJE 2023 type production (i.e. at least good enough to be considered your first guy in off the bench in rush situations) - 6.5 sacks, 14 pressures, 7 tackles for loss (not asking him to match the 2 interceptions). 

 

I just don't see how he has that sort of impact. He could barely move out there. 

Edited February 6 by GunnerBill

[BarleyNY]

3 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

Yea. 20 years ago. The average age of NFL players has decreased almost 2 years since then. It's a young man's game. I don't think even the great Bruce Smith has double digit sacks at those ages anymore.... and Bruce wasn't coming off a second ACL injury in those years and hadn't looked as stiff as a board the year before. 

 

What would constitute a rebound in your mind? Because if it just means better than 0 sacks, 0 tackles for loss, 5 total pressures and a 25% missed tackle rate in 258 defensive snaps then sure, I can imagine he does better than that. It wouldn't be difficult. But to me for it to be a rebound that makes him definitely better value than the $6.7m you might be able to spend on another vet guy it has to be AJE 2023 type production (i.e. at least good enough to be considered your first guy in off the bench in rush situations) - 6.5 sacks, 14 pressures, 7 tackles for loss (not asking him to match the 2 interceptions). 

 

I just don't see how he has that sort of impact. He could barely move out there. 

 

The Von Miller question does boil down to whether he’s worth keeping for $6.7M (the currently non-guaranteed portion of his 2024 salary) this season or not. The rest is sunk cost. I agree that it would be better to just take the “L” on this one and move on. His release (with a 6/1 designation) would have to be done by 3/17 when that last $6.7M fully guarantees. 

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

On 2/5/2024 at 2:41 AM, LABILLBACKER said:

Hyde & Tre are likely gone this spring.  Von, Diggs, Knox and Poyer will probably only be around one more year then we wave goodbye.  We absolutely must emphasize offense (wrs) this April.  We've neglected Josh long enough. The core is solid with Josh, Cook and Kincaid/Shakir. But reliable supplemental wrs better than Gabe and an aging Diggs are necessary. The youth movement will start this year. As will Josh's 2nd window.  

I mean, I hope we can maybe stretch one or two of them out for a bit longer. I think it's possible for Knox to bounce back, Diggs to have a little more in the tank and Tre to at least turn in a solid season or two.

 

But it's coming. I hope for 1-2 WRs, and a bunch of young defenders to replenish that corps. We can't get Von off the books this year but we can get a guy in the pipeline. 

 

My current wish list this year is WR2>>>>>>S/C>WR4/DL/CB. With 9 current picks in the draft (and possibly a 10th with Edmunds Supplemental) I think it's possible to possible to hit on 3 as immediate starters, and a few that might need a year of seasoning.

[WhitewalkerInPhilly]

9 minutes ago, BarleyNY said:

 

The Von Miller question does boil down to whether he’s worth keeping for $6.7M (the currently non-guaranteed portion of his 2024 salary) this season or not. The rest is sunk cost. I agree that it would be better to just take the “L” on this one and move on. His release (with a 6/1 designation) would have to be done by 3/17 when that last $6.7M fully guarantees. 

I'm not saying that's necessarily wrong, but I feel like I need to keep pointing out: the 6/1 designation does not give the Bills the cap space right away. It becomes available on 6/1 (thus the name) and then the difference of $15.4 M goes onto the cap for 2025.

 

Now, more than Diggs (which people are clamoring for) I think there's a realistic chance that this might happen. If the team sees a visible decline in production following an injury to a guy who will be 35 at season start, maybe they decide that having an open roster spot and the space for in season free agents is worth the impending hit.

 

What I find more likely is that Beane rolls the dice on Miller returning to form for one more year. Also, if Miller is suspended, a bunch of those guarantees go away and the Bills can recoup part of the signing bonus. So I expect this to happen more than a 6/1 cut

[BarleyNY]

3 minutes ago, WhitewalkerInPhilly said:

I'm not saying that's necessarily wrong, but I feel like I need to keep pointing out: the 6/1 designation does not give the Bills the cap space right away. It becomes available on 6/1 (thus the name) and then the difference of $15.4 M goes onto the cap for 2025.

 

Now, more than Diggs (which people are clamoring for) I think there's a realistic chance that this might happen. If the team sees a visible decline in production following an injury to a guy who will be 35 at season start, maybe they decide that having an open roster spot and the space for in season free agents is worth the impending hit.

 

What I find more likely is that Beane rolls the dice on Miller returning to form for one more year. Also, if Miller is suspended, a bunch of those guarantees go away and the Bills can recoup part of the signing bonus. So I expect this to happen more than a 6/1 cut

Yeah. The $6.7M cap savings that we would realize on 6/1/24 would not limit our roster moves. The Bills would put that toward the transition to 53 + PS and in season moves. 

 

As for the $15.4M hit in 2025 and the dead cap in 2024, that’s sunk costs. We’re going to have to eat that regardless. It’s just a matter of timing and whether or not we want to add more to it. 

 

Lastly, a Von Miller suspension that voids his remaining guarantees would be a huge boon for the Bills. That would be $10.7M in cash and cap space we could get out from under. If I were Pegula or Beane I’d be lobbying Goodell to suspend him. 

[SoCal Deek]

It’s really pretty simple. Just consider the Von contract as a gamble that didn’t pay off. They swing for the fences hoping to grab a Super Bowl and it just didn’t work, regardless of the injury. So fast forward to 2024 and they’d still have an aging, overpaid pass rusher just with a trophy to show for it. The current cap challenge would still be here. Accept it and get younger. 

[Thurman#1]

On 2/5/2024 at 4:41 PM, LABILLBACKER said:

Hyde & Tre are likely gone this spring.  Von, Diggs, Knox and Poyer will probably only be around one more year then we wave goodbye.  We absolutely must emphasize offense (wrs) this April.  We've neglected Josh long enough. The core is solid with Josh, Cook and Kincaid/Shakir. But reliable supplemental wrs better than Gabe and an aging Diggs are necessary. The youth movement will start this year. As will Josh's 2nd window.  

 

 

They didn't neglect Josh by any measure.

 

Both of the first two picks, Kincaid and Torrence, were directly aimed at making things easier for Josh, and both turned out to be great picks.

[boater]

Ahhh... we're going to have a "Yute" movement.

[HappyDays]

8 hours ago, GunnerBill said:

 

I just think there is way more chance, and I mean like to the times of ten, that you get the old Tre White than you get the old Von Miller. I really don't think it's close. 

 

Try and renegotiate with Tre. Cut Von. 

 

I still think the best way to handle Von is offer him a pay cut, and assuming he accepts set up the contract in a way that gives us an easy out in 2025. He has to know he isn't going to get an offer on the open market anywhere close to what he'd get with us, not with his recent performance and his legal troubles.

 

With Tre for me it's not about how likely it is he'll get back to form. It's just a clear immediate savings if we cut him with no future ramifications and the CB room is already in great shape. There's just no need to keep him. In general I hate when Beane offers under performing players pay cuts, it's like he is scared to be a little ruthless. Usually I'm in favor of cutting a player like that and if they want to come back for super cheap after discovering free agency isn't kind to them, go for it. The only reason I differ with Von is there some pretty nasty future ramifications to unload him this offseason so I'm more willing to go the pay cut route and hope to get some kind of value out of him, even if the chance is low.

[Green Lightning]

On 2/5/2024 at 4:12 AM, JerseyBills said:

ya the OL especially was a massive concern that changed immediately into a strength after 1 off season..

Also hopeful for guys like Shorter and Darien in 43 situations can be more added youth. I'm very optimistic for the future

OLine is not a disaster like it was but it's still not a strength. Morse cannot move a good DT an inch and is easily bull rushed. And he's one more head hit away from permanent injury. We need a wide-body stud center so we don't need trick plays or deep passes on 3rd and short.